Emily

[Rick Murchison]

They're lining up in the Atlantic.
TD5 looks like it'll go ahead and develop and hit somewhere between Miami and the Outer Banks.
Tiresome and ridiculous - and way early.
Wonder what September/October are gonna be like?
Rick

[CBulla]

In its own right its gratifying as well.. we have so many of the "it won't hit here" types around here who are not saying a lot this year. They've suddenly become a lot more concerned about storms and securing items than they were a year ago. :)

[DennisW]

It's awfully early for storms to form in the Atlantic where TD5 is and for storms as powerful as mine was. At least, I won't have to see my name up there again. At least not in my lifetime.

[simbrooks]

It's awfully early for storms to form in the Atlantic where TD5 is and for storms as powerful as mine was. At least, I won't have to see my name up there again. At least not in my lifetime.
Unless we go all the way through 5 more years as they recycle them every 6 years (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml) - or do they take a name off after its been a major hurricane - some names are retired (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/retirednames.shtml), all were major 'canes, what about the minor ones?

[wreckchick]

Minors are recycled, majors are retired.

Yeah TD Emily plus the 2 other blobs behind it coming off Africa. At least I'm still buttoned up from Dennis. I'm thinking the plywood isn't going to come down anytime soon.

R

[simbrooks]

Minors are recycled, majors are retired.

Yeah TD Emily plus the 2 other blobs behind it coming off Africa. At least I'm still buttoned up from Dennis. I'm thinking the plywood isn't going to come down anytime soon.

R
Who needs windows anyway? ;)

The models for this one are all over the place ranging from headed to MX to North FL/GA if you extrapolate them, the current track is on the north side of that headed to either nick the bottom of FL/Keys or hit SE FL, but give it a couple of days to see which way it goes. The front that might have swung Dennis has moved offshore and so now there is only a little influence of the Bermuda high and whatever comes across the US through this week - didnt see anything incredible there, that could influence this one, hence the reason the models are so much more splayed out than during Dennis.

[Rick Murchison]

NHS sez...
"While There Is Presently Some Easterly Shear With This System...as
Well As Marginal Thermodynamics...the Environment Is Expected To
Become More Favorable For Development In Both Regards Over The Next Few Days. Given This...slow But Steady Strengthening Is
Anticipated Over The Next 72 Hours...and The Official Forecast Is
In Good Agreement With Ships And Gfdl Guidance. The Gfdl...which
Develops The Depression Only Slowly At First...continues To Make
The Cyclone A Significant Hurricane In The Caribbean."
Rick

[simbrooks]

Hopefully it will keep moving quickly and not have too much time to stand still and intesify!

IF it does go where the track states, hopefully running through Haiti and then all the way up the spine of Cuba will hopefully take out a lot of its power, not of course wishing anything more on any of the folks there, but that "could" be the outcome given the current guess forecast. However reintensification could occur when it gets back in the Gulf (the track currently seems to go west of FL again - lucky Gulf coast people you guys are up in the northern Gulf areas ;) ), but its still very early to see which side of FL or whether it goes straight up the middle.

[CBulla]

Dude.. bring it on... I can't make any less money, in fact, right now my occupational license has Lawnscaping on it right now and it would be of GREAT SERVICE to provide so much additional work!!!

[simbrooks]

5pm report:
GOOD LUCK FINDING A CENTER IN THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS CLEARLY A BROAD-SCALE CIRCULATION...THE DEPRESSION REMAINS VERY POORLY ORGANIZED. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A FOCUS OF LOW-LEVEL TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST OF MY ESTIMATED POSITION...AS EVIDENCED BY A MICROWAVE PASS AT 1737Z...BUT FOR THIS PACKAGE I WILL TRY TO LOOK AT THE BIG PICTURE AND FOLLOW THE GEOMETRIC CENTER OF THE OVERALL DISTURBANCE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB...AND 35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. GIVEN THE CYCLONE'S DISHEVELED APPEARANCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/12. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SURPRISINGLY WELL CLUSTERED...WITH THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BEING THE FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE DEPRESSION REMAINS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR AND IS SOUTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND SLOW STEADY STRENGHENING IS ANTICIPATED ...ROUGHLY IN ACCORD WITH THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO MAKE THE CYCLONE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE CARIBBEAN.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Could it be that the NOAA guys are also kind of unhappy about how much work they are having to do with tropical weather so early in the season? I really do like the opening line though "GOOD LUCK FINDING A CENTER IN THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON." ;)

[Damselfish]

5pm report:

Could it be that the NOAA guys are also kind of unhappy about how much work they are having to do with tropical weather so early in the season? I really do like the opening line though "GOOD LUCK FINDING A CENTER IN THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON." ;)
I bet they love it.

I liked that too. The humor they sneak into these cracks me up sometimes. Avila does some of the best ones.

[CBulla]

Without further adieu, welcome to the state Tropical Storm Emily! The 5 a.m. coordinates are 11.4N 48.6W - max winds 40kts, gusts to 50kts - moving west at 13kts

[Rick Murchison]

Without further adieu, welcome to the state Tropical Storm Emily! The 5 a.m. coordinates are 11.4N 48.6W - max winds 40kts, gusts to 50kts - moving west at 13kts
Why do I think this is a conspiracy to screw up my Honduras trip scheduled for Friday?
Rick

[CBulla]

Why do I think this is a conspiracy to screw up my Honduras trip scheduled for Friday?
Rick

I hope it works out for ya buddy, that lil place could you some of the positive presence you provide... trust the process and know what will occur is what was meant to be.

[divetahoe]

Why do I think this is a conspiracy to screw up my Honduras trip scheduled for Friday?
Rick

I think you're safe. The five day cone from the Hurricane center, indicates it will probably move to the north of Honduras. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/144629.shtml?5day?large

Of course, that doesn't bode particularly well for the gulf coast states -- again.

FWIW

[simbrooks]

Looking at the track, and what is around, i am wondering if Emily will make as hard a turn as needed to hit the FL panhandle/LA/MS area. It looks like it might be coming in a little flatter on approach than Dennis (so far), maybe it'll go more towards Mexico or Southern TX? We'll have to see when it gets nearer Cuba i guess....

[wreckchick]

Personally, I don't like that they shifted the entire 5-day based on something that looks like a bobble. Only time will tell!

R

[RonFrank]

Why do I think this is a conspiracy to screw up my Honduras trip scheduled for Friday?
Rick

Actually it's a conspriacy to screw up our trip to FL next week!!

Hope your trip works out as does ours.

[kathy miller]

this should mess up our family (of 12) vacation to Little Cayman. It bites -- we fly in to GC friday, LC sat, and Emily may hit on Sunday. Sooo, no airline refund or trip insurance for the flight there. We are, for the most part, northern land lubbers who are not familiar with the drill for hurricanes. Any advice? My heart goes out to the folks who will have to deal with the intensified hurricane seasons.

[CBulla]

Only time will tell!

R

Rachel.. yes... yes it will.. and the ultimate landfall will never be known until it hits land, and even then, as Ivan proved last year, it can come back again for one more round!

[Bill51]

Personally, I don't like that they shifted the entire 5-day based on something that looks like a bobble. Only time will tell!

R
The track wasn’t changed because of a bobble, but because of two intensifying highs over the Atlantic with one of them expanding along the entire Gulf Coast.

[Scuba_Jenny]

These storms are getting old already! And I am (so far) one of the few lucky residents of Florida that have not been directly impacted by a storm-except as a place of refuge.

[lamont]

its looking highly likely that the oil rigs and refineries will get hit by another hurricaine this year... get ready for $3 gas and $80/bbl oil...

[FLL Diver]

And I am (so far) one of the few lucky residents of Florida that have not been directly impacted by a storm

There you go, now you've jinxed it!

I got the feeling last year that south Florida got off easy. This will be the payback year.

Getting out with my equity intact may turn out to be a good thing. :D

Marc

[cornfed]

its looking highly likely that the oil rigs and refineries will get hit by another hurricaine this year... get ready for $3 gas and $80/bbl oil...The second largest known oil reserves in the world are in Russia. Russia does not belong to OPEC. These facts conbined would suggest Russia is a good place to get oil from since they aren't involved in price fixing.

[mike_s]

It don't look good. Here comes Emily





http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT05/AL0505W5.GIF

[Rick Murchison]

Further south with every revision...
The damned storm knows I'm heading for Honduras Friday... I hope you guys in Miami are happy!
Rick

[H2Andy]

well, rick, you sure know how to pick your travel dates... hope things work out

(we dodged Danny last week in Roatan, got lucky)

here's the latest track:

[nipi]

Kathy - if Emily continues on this track you may not be allowed to fly in here (Cayman) as a tourist on Friday.

[simbrooks]

Looks like Mexico's in the sights, dont know if it'll go much further south, its pretty flat already.

[Scuba_Signer]

Why do I think this is a conspiracy to screw up my Honduras trip scheduled for Friday?
Rick

My wife and I are thinking the same thing! We're booked for Anthony's Key for a week starting Saturday. Her first dive trip, my third but first to Roatan.

We keep checking http://mobile.wunderground.com/tropical/ on our Blackberrys!

Steve

[Rick Murchison]

Danny
You really were on vacation, weren't you?
Rick

[MoonWrasse]

Minors are recycled, majors are retired.

Yeah TD Emily plus the 2 other blobs behind it coming off Africa. At least I'm still buttoned up from Dennis. I'm thinking the plywood isn't going to come down anytime soon.

R
What's the one after Emily going to be called? Farley?

[Tom Smedley]

Five days and 100 knot winds on Cozumel....
Dang Dang Darn!!!!!

[SeaHunt]

I just heard a NWS report on TS Emily. At this time they are predicting her westward course will take her over or near Coz and Cancun. It's still several days away, and of course her course could change. I’m hoping that she just peters out before she gets anywhere near my beloved Cozumel. None-the-less, I’m keeping my eye on this gals moves.

Jim

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5%2Bshtml/144629.shtml?3day?large

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5%2Bshtml/120233.shtml

[sharky60]

Yeah, I saw the projected course last night also. You never can tell with one of those animals...let's all pray for the best!

[divetahoe]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/150329.shtml?5day?large

[H2Andy]

You really were on vacation, weren't you?
Rick


i meant... Dennis?

[Christi]

She's still WAAAAAYYYYYY out there. Hopefully she'll just fizzle out and NO ONE will have to endure Emily.

[simbrooks]

Just wondering, according to the reports it has yet to pick up NNW as the models say, i am wondering if it will even make it as far north as the Yucatan, ie will it hit Nicargua (sp?) or even Venezuela or Columbia if it goes almost due west?

[MoonWrasse]

Looks like she's headed straight for Cancun/Cozumel.

[simbrooks]

Looks like she's headed straight for Cancun/Cozumel.
By the predicted track/models, but reality has yet to follow the models on this one, read this:
EMILY CONTINUES ON A STUBBORN WESTWARD TRACK...270/17. THE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FORECAST ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY BY THE TRACK
MODELS HAS NOT DEVELOPED YET. CLEARLY THERE HAS BEEN MORE RIDGING
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THAN EXPECTED. THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS
BOUNDED BY THE GFDL AND UKMET ON THE NORTH...AND NOGAPS ON THE
SOUTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ON THE NOGAPS SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.

There is more in the advisory/discussion, but this seems to be saying that its not doing what they thought.

Doesnt mean it wont turn NNW, but at this time it isnt doing it, which leaves it wide open as to which way it is going to go.

[lamont]

The second largest known oil reserves in the world are in Russia. Russia does not belong to OPEC. These facts conbined would suggest Russia is a good place to get oil from since they aren't involved in price fixing.

reserve numbers are pretty meaningless though. you need to know what the pumping capacity of those fields are, and what it costs to get it out. most of russia's reserves are very expensive oil to pump...

meanwhile, Emily's predicted track looks pretty close to Ivan's track, so far... if it curves north through that gap between the yucutan and cuba and picks up steam it could be deja vu...

[ggunn]

She's still WAAAAAYYYYYY out there. Hopefully she'll just fizzle out and NO ONE will have to endure Emily.


The computer models, however look pretty grim for Cozumel.

http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html

Watching with fingers crossed...

[Christi]

The computer models, however look pretty grim for Cozumel.

http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html

Watching with fingers crossed...

I know...but I'm praying for the best :)

[Kleppta]

I am on the Island for short three day trip end of the month. (JUly 28-Aug 1) Don't want any hurricane stirring up the water before my bath time... ;)

Tim Nassis
Toronto, Canada

She's still WAAAAAYYYYYY out there. Hopefully she'll just fizzle out and NO ONE will have to endure Emily.

[Damselfish]

see also http://www.scubaboard.com/showthread.php?t=104004

[ggunn]

I am on the Island for short three day trip end of the month. (JUly 28-Aug 1) Don't want any hurricane stirring up the water before my bath time... ;)

Tim Nassis
Toronto, Canada

Whatever happens, it will be long over by then. A fortunate side effect of the current that makes nearly every dive around Cozumel a drift dive is that any effects of the stirring up of the bathwater clear out in a day or two.

[Tom Smedley]

I know - this thread came first - but that doesn't matter - just a sick feeling down within that wonderful locations are about the be destroyed. However, the hurricane came first and man's baubles simply get in the way.

[DallasNewbie]

I will be down there the end of the month, too. It's good to hear that the current keeps everything tidy, but I hope that the island and everyone on it weather the storm equally well.

[BradNC]

Bummer...5 months of planning and waiting are gone with the wind literally. I was due to arrive in Cozumel for a week long vacation Sunday.

I hope nobody gets hurt and the reefes don't get torn up.

[RonFrank]

She is now at Hurrican strength.

Thoughts and Prayers to all that are in her path. Let's hope she fizzles out...

[MoonWrasse]

Bummer...5 months of planning and waiting are gone with the wind literally. I was due to arrive in Cozumel for a week long vacation Sunday.

I hope nobody gets hurt and the reefes don't get torn up.
All isn't lost - she's projected to arrive there about the same time you are.
I'll bet you'll still get some diving in.

8-9 years ago I went down there during Thanksgiving week, thinking there would be no rain being the end of the season.
Instead I only saw about 15 minutes of sunshine during the entire week. In fact some gals gave up and were sunbathing on the beach in the rain ;)

[DandyDon]

A buddy and I once took a Windjammer cruise in the Windward Antilles in August on my assurances that hurricanes never go that far south in the summer. Oops! :11:

I do hope you folks headed to the Bay Islands, Cozumel, and Cancun this weekend all have Trip Insurnace. ;)

[Hank49]

How did they come up with the name Emily? Emily is such a sweet, nice girl name that I don't associate with massive destruction. They need to use native American names that mean things like "Beautiful lady that has fits sometimes", or "She's really nice till you piss her off"....

[kathy miller]

my family is scheduled to leave stateside very early tomorrow am, overnight in grand cayman to head to little cayman early Sat. am. So far, no travel advisories--we are trying to decide what to do. Would you stay stateside and wait it out (probably will cost about $400 more per person because airfare has gone up so much), or head down and potentially meet a major hurricane? Our travel insurance doesn't cover "potential", just an actual 48 hr delay in flight travel. If we get to LC and get blown away there...oh well! I'd love to know what you experienced folks would do ( mind you, we are travelling with my almost 80 year old folks, very hearty, but there is a limit!)

Thanks for the advice--

[lamont]

How did they come up with the name Emily? Emily is such a sweet, nice girl name that I don't associate with massive destruction. They need to use native American names that mean things like "Beautiful lady that has fits sometimes", or "She's really nice till you piss her off"....

I can think of some Emily's that I've known where it fits...

[mattboy]

I'm due to arrive in Cozumel tuesday afternoon. Any advice?

[nipi]

Kathy - if Emily stays on track then when it becomes a Cat 3 lots of businesses will evacuate people from Cayman. Cayman Airways are putting on extra flights for tomorrow to get people off. You may not even be allowed in as a tourist. Just to let you know.

[DandyDon]

my family is scheduled to leave stateside very early tomorrow am, overnight in grand cayman to head to little cayman early Sat. am. So far, no travel advisories--we are trying to decide what to do. Would you stay stateside and wait it out (probably will cost about $400 more per person because airfare has gone up so much), or head down and potentially meet a major hurricane? Our travel insurance doesn't cover "potential", just an actual 48 hr delay in flight travel. If we get to LC and get blown away there...oh well! I'd love to know what you experienced folks would do ( mind you, we are travelling with my almost 80 year old folks, very hearty, but there is a limit!)

Thanks for the advice--
I wouldn't even think of it. I'd be on the phone with my Trip Insurance company having claim forms faxed in.

[kathy miller]

interesting response...the folks on Little Cayman are encouraging us to come down tomorrow and ride out Sunday saying it will not be a big deal. IF the storm tracks as projected now, it will be tropical storm wind/rains...but what if it tracks a bit north? We would be looking at a Cat 3. Do people hunker down or fly out? I just spoke with cayman air, they are definately flying into GC tomorrow, may or may not be flying to LC sat morning , and probably will not be flying Sat. pm. hmm--

[nipi]

The track so far is far too similar to Ivan for my liking. People in Cayman are beginning to say that if Grenada gets hit, then we're in trouble. Still - let's hope the LCM people are right.

[DandyDon]

interesting response...the folks on Little Cayman are encouraging us to come down tomorrow and ride out Sunday saying it will not be a big deal. IF the storm tracks as projected now, it will be tropical storm wind/rains...but what if it tracks a bit north? We would be looking at a Cat 3. Do people hunker down or fly out? I just spoke with cayman air, they are definately flying into GC tomorrow, may or may not be flying to LC sat morning , and probably will not be flying Sat. pm. hmm--
You can obtain info on the storm here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

I included a map of the Caribbean as a few folks who travel the Carib don't actually know where their islands are; they just get on the plane and get off. You seem to know where the Caymans are, but just in case - click on the map I provided to see a larger view.

[bob1dp]

One of the problems I’ve had trying to out fly hurricanes is you say “Oh we can fly out tomorrow” but… All the Caribbean flights hop from island to island and even though your weather may be OK the flights may get grounded somewhere else.

[DocIndyDiver]

I'm in a group going to Cozumel July 23, the Sat. after the storm passes. What is the island's recovery capability 5 days post a possible catagory 4 huricane. Yes, my local news in Florida just relayed it maybe up to a Cat 4 by Cozumel.

[BurBunny]

I'm in a group going to Cozumel July 23, the Sat. after the storm passes. What is the island's recovery capability 5 days post a possible catagory 4 huricane. Yes, my local news in Florida just relayed it maybe up to a Cat 4 by Cozumel.

Glad you asked, Doc... as I'm heading down there the same day. Looks like we will get to see first hand.

[Diver Kat]

Glad you asked, Doc... as I'm heading down there the same day. Looks like we will get to see first hand.

We're heading down the 23rd as well, and also wondering ......

[Watcher]

:( I'm supposed to leave out on Saturday morning to go to the Riveria Maya. (July 16-23)

We have insurance, do you think we should cancel?

[DandyDon]

interesting response...the folks on Little Cayman are encouraging us to come down tomorrow and ride out Sunday saying it will not be a big deal. IF the storm tracks as projected now, it will be tropical storm wind/rains...but what if it tracks a bit north? We would be looking at a Cat 3. Do people hunker down or fly out? I just spoke with cayman air, they are definately flying into GC tomorrow, may or may not be flying to LC sat morning , and probably will not be flying Sat. pm. hmm--
I thought some more on this. The Caymans are currently under Hurricane Watch (see latest map below). Would I go alone? I hope not, but I am kinda' crazy. Would I take my family. NOT A CHANCE.

Am I overreacting here? Anyone disagree with me? I've talked to a lot of folks who have endured such storms, and I hope I never have to, much less walk into one intentionally.

:( I'm supposed to leave out on Saturday morning to go to the Riveria Maya. (July 16-23)

We have insurance, do you think we should cancel?
Man, I'd hate to, and I know you've been looking forward to this getaway, but - you'd be projected to incur a direct hit by a killer storm the next evening. Now, some people would call that living for excitement, but that's not the trip you planned, is it it?

I'd be on the phone to my airline investigating other possibilities and insurance company ensuring that they fully intend to pay.

Someone disagree with me here. Am I overreacting? I have never been thru a hurricane, but I find it surprising that these folks are even talking about flying into this storms path.

[Bill51]

From what I can tell, the Fixed Base Operator at Grand Cayman is starting to hunker down for the storm, so that might dictate what the airlines can do. If you want the real skinny on what’s happening you can call the airport management directly at 345-949-7733 or the Texaco at the airport at 345-949-4328.

[kathy miller]

Well, I have learned a lot about trip insurance with this adventure. the state department issued a request that US folks leave the caymans while the getting is good. There is a hurricane watch as of 11:00 pm last night, and speculation that she will be a catagory 4 (caymen net news) As far as I know this morning, the airlines have not yet enacted their storm policy which allows you to change flights without fees and additional charges. we are not going down until Monday and paying the fees--don't want to risk a major hurricane. Watcher-check your policy on cancellation--ours won't reimburse until there is a 48 hour cancellation of common carrier service, which, in your case as well as ours, means that they expect you to fly into an area in the path of a major hurricane as long as the planes are still flying. Then they don't cover evacutation when you need to go, and too bad if you spend half your vacation in a hurricane shelter! don't you love insurance companies??

Prayers to all in Emily's path. Caymans haven't recovered from Ivan yet--I can't imagine dreading this year's hurricane season.

[CBulla]

What an interesting Hurricane. For the first weekend in a LONG time its not raining or storming or under storm warning here and I'm doing a workshop that keeps me inside :lol: how ironic!

I hope the folks in the Caymans are keeping the heads down, its definitely going to be a wild ride!

[DandyDon]

Kathy, I am relived to learn that you are not on a plane into the storm, but I am amazed that the airline would still fly you there (which one please?) as well as that your trip insurance carrier doesn't intend to pay for trip delays (which one again please?).

This morning's advisories include...

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST
THAT EMILY MAY HAVE WEAKENED A LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE INTENSITY SHORTLY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

Omg, 135 mph winds on the path, 74 mph outward 40 miles, 40 mph outward 140 miles with rain flying sideways. I guess that's hurricane party stuff to Florida folks, but to this high desert dweller - not something I'd want to see first hand.

[mattboy]

I see that the latest predictions have been modified to focus the storm directly on my hotel room in Cozumel; I'm supposed to arrive Tuesday afternoon. We'll see......

[saf_25]

Why do I think this is a conspiracy to screw up my Honduras trip scheduled for Friday?
Rick
Rick,
What resort are you staying at? We're heading to Cocoview tonight - maybe we'll see you there!

[scububa]

I see that the latest predictions have been modified to focus the storm directly on my hotel room in Cozumel; I'm supposed to arrive Tuesday afternoon. We'll see......

That should be good news ;) When do they pinpoint it four days out?

[DocIndyDiver]

Looks like DandyDon's link has it going barely north of Cozumel. That's better but, Grand Cayman is in for another good wack (northeast side of storm). NOAA has it doing a left turn before Texas, ya right. Look out Texas.

[DandyDon]

I see that the latest predictions have been modified to focus the storm directly on my hotel room in Cozumel; I'm supposed to arrive Tuesday afternoon. We'll see......
When do they pinpoint it four days out?
When, or where...?

The NHC of NOAA currently expects it to go more over Cancun than Cozumel, altho there will be little difference. Good luck friends in both places. Four days from now - Tuesday, NHC thinks it'll have already passed the Yucatan and be in the Gulf building power from that warm water. Could be a really bad lady by the time she comes ashore around the Rio Grande Valley...!! :shocked: Of course, she could also drift north or south of that line.

For latest update on predictions: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

I had some conversations with my usual trip insurance company and usual airline this morning and learned a few things that may be helpful down the line for me. In hopes they may be helpful to others now, I'll try to share them here...

The insurance company would pay if I was prevented from traveling and incurred losses, which is the way it should be. If they paid only because I changed my mind about going, the premiums would be ridiculous. For example, Continental is still planning on flying to Grand Cayman and Roatan tomorrow - subject to change.

The insurance company would pay if an airline didn't fly as scheduled, and the airline was covered. I use Travel Safe as they cover all airlines.

If I have the good sense to not go to Grand Cayman tomorrow, or even didn't want to risk flying into Roatan tomorrow (does RTB even have instrument landing possibilities for a thunderstorm?), the insurance company is not going to pay for optional losses - it all depends on the airline.

HERE'S THE BIG ONE, THO: If I was booked on either, and didn't want to go, Continental would not charge me for changing!! NEXT BIG ONE: Then, if my Atlantic Air flight connecting to Utila was canceled and I couldn't get a refund, Travel Safe would pay for that.

All this does sound pretty reasonable to me, and reassuring. I am wondering if other ailines are allowing free changing..??

[dive1627]

We were scheduled to leave for Belize (Ambergris Caye) tomorrow morning.
Gladly, our flight was booked with Continental Airlines.
From their website:

" Hurricane Emily

Due to Hurricane Emily, Continental is allowing the option to reschedule or reroute your travel once, without a penalty, if you are ticketed to/from/through one of the cities listed below for travel between Thursday, July 14, 2005 and Monday, July 18, 2005. Travel must be re-scheduled or re-issued by July 18, 2005:

Belize City, Belize (BZE)
Cancun, Mexico (CUN)
Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico (CME)
Cozumel, Mexico (CZM)
Grand Cayman Island, Cayman Islands (GCM)
Kingston, Jamaica (KIN)
Merida, Mexico (MID)
Montego Bay, Jamaica (MBJ)
Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic (POP)
Punta Cana, Dominican Republic (PUJ)
Roatan, Honduras (RTB)
San Pedro Sula, Honduras (SAP)
Santiago, Dominican Republic (STI)
Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic (SDQ)


Travel must be completed by the original validity dates specified on ticket. Changes must be confirmed in the same booking class as the original ticket. Please contact Continental reservations for assistance. "

We called to postpone it for a week with no problem at all (no charge for that).
Check your airline website.

Hotel reservation - directly with Banana Beach Resort. People there were very understanding and we had no problem to re-schedule our stay for a week (no charge).
Dive operations - the same (Amigos and Protech).

No insurance purchased for any of those reservations.

We are hoping all the best for the people during "Emily".

[DandyDon]

From the NHC...

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

[divergalinla]

I thought some more on this. The Caymans are currently under Hurricane Watch (see latest map below). Would I go alone? I hope not, but I am kinda' crazy. Would I take my family. NOT A CHANCE.

Am I overreacting here? Anyone disagree with me? I've talked to a lot of folks who have endured such storms, and I hope I never have to, much less walk into one intentionally.


Man, I'd hate to, and I know you've been looking forward to this getaway, but - you'd be projected to incur a direct hit by a killer storm the next evening. Now, some people would call that living for excitement, but that's not the trip you planned, is it it?

I'd be on the phone to my airline investigating other possibilities and insurance company ensuring that they fully intend to pay.

Someone disagree with me here. Am I overreacting? I have never been thru a hurricane, but I find it surprising that these folks are even talking about flying into this storms path.
Don, I agree with you. I lived through a not-so-major hurricane in south Louisiana quite a few years ago..I was in Houma, and even though we got no storm surge, there was flooding all over, and I mean DEEP flooding, electricity out, water out, phones out, etc. for several days. There is no way I would fly down there now. On an island especially - if you get down there, and realize it is worse than you thought, then you may be stuck there. No way would I risk it.......especially with family members. Insurance or not!
Kathy

[DandyDon]

Don, I agree with you. I lived through a not-so-major hurricane in south Louisiana quite a few years ago..I was in Houma, and even though we got no storm surge, there was flooding all over, and I mean DEEP flooding, electricity out, water out, phones out, etc. for several days. There is no way I would fly down there now. On an island especially - if you get down there, and realize it is worse than you thought, then you may be stuck there. No way would I risk it.......especially with family members. Insurance or not!
Kathy
Thanks for your input here. Suggestions from me, who has lived at 3,000 feet or higher all my life, certainly don't carry as much as from you folks who have been thru these. Curious why the Florida experts weren't posting here...?

It looks like it's safe to fly to Jamaica and The Caymans, now - altho I do not know anything about damages there yet, or how much fun it would be to dive in those stirred up waters.

I got an email from my favorite Cozumel dive operator today, telling friends and customers about how they were hiding from Emily. It seems that the local phone company is taking down the satellite receivers to hide them from the storm, so Coz may be without phone and internet for several days.

There's a couple of threads in this forum from members who just escaped Ambergris Cay Belize and Cozumel. It sounds like getting out was pretty hairy, with not getting out being worse. :11:

And some members were thinking about flying to the path of this thing a few days ago. :cut: Except I understand - when you have saved and planned for a long time, it's difficult to give up. If Emily had come thru this same path two weeks later, I'm sure all of us on our Utila trip would be upset. I guess it could yet happen again with another storm, but of course - hoping not.

Right now, wishing the best for all those who live on or are visiting the Yucatan, Cozumel and other nearby islands.

[MoonWrasse]

Looks like Emily's little brother Franklin is on his way.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

[DandyDon]

Looks like Emily's little brother Franklin is on his way.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg
Oh come on now. We could start tracking every swirl between here and Africa. I don't see much to get excited there yet. :bablefish

[divergalinla]

[QUOTE=DandyDon]Thanks for your input here. Suggestions from me, who has lived at 3,000 feet or higher all my life, certainly don't carry as much as from you folks who have been thru these. Curious why the Florida experts weren't posting here...?

It's bad enough living in those conditions for a few days at home - I can't imagine being in a foreign land, stranded, with no way to get in touch with family and friends.


My prayers and those of the members of my church are also with those who have been hit by Emily, and those who are in it's path.

[mattboy]

Delta extended the July 18 free rescheduling to allow me, originally on the 19th, to move my trip to Thursday, which is as late as I can go without cancelling altogether. They did this after I explained to them that Emily would be hitting Coz/Cancun much later than the rest of the caribbean, and to their credit, they bought it.

So, unless the damage is more severe than I anticipate (sure hope I don't have to eat those words) I'll be there on Thursday, either diving or helping clean up...

The latest (11:00PM Sun) advisory shows Emily weakening a bit; pressure is in category 3, but winds are into the category 4 region. From what I have read, Cozumel seems to be as ready as possible. It also appears that the eye will pass almost directly over Tulum. I wonder how many storms like this Tulum has weathered in the last 1200 years?

[alcina]

For those travelling immediately the all clear is given from the airlines, please spare a thought also for those who are living there and who will be your guides, maid, servers, drivers etc - just because the hurricane is gone, doesn't mean life is back on track. These things leave a tremendous amount of disruption - even if you don't get hit as hard as you think you will you then have to undo all the prep you put in.

So please be extra patient, realise that although things may look normal they are not and try to be as aware as possible that you are truly a Stranger in a Strange Land even more so than usual.

My best wishes to all those involved...from a Category 5 survivor :)

[Dee]

Very good advice, alcina. :thumb:

[DandyDon]

Very good advice, alcina. :thumb:
Very good indeed...!! ;)

I guess our friends there are talking it on the nose at this moment. My thoughts are with them of course, but thanks for reminding me that those who will be there to serve us next week are mostly those who didn't leave, didn't go to the shelters until the last minute, or stayed home - in their shacks.

I've been told I over tip in Cozumel and less developed sites. I think not.

[Giggi]

Our thoughts and prayers go out to our friends who are being hit...stay safe and may your damage be minimal (if at all). I wish I could come down and help with cleanup.

[DandyDon]

Anyone have any news about how Jamaica and the Caymans were affected? I guess direct communications would be challenging with satellite receivers either damaged or hidden away as they were on Coz. Been reading news stories (however much one can believe those) from the Cancun area. It seems the vast majority were evacuated inland, with many who did not leave being moved to shelters. Saw one story mentioning how 2,000 tourists from several hotels were moved to one gym, "and the army simply barred the doors."

[maractwin]

From the Dive Paradise website: "Hurricane Emily Update - Monday, July 18 11:30PM CST - Cozumel faired OK in the wake of the recent storm. Lots of trees down but no real structural damage. There have been no reported major injuries or fatalities. People are out and about in their cars and the phones are working. No damage to boats so far and all DP boats are fine. Residents are already picking up the debris on the streets. Power's still out but that's to be expected since they need to go around and look for downed wires before they turn it back on. Sporatic rain. Overall it's much better than expected. Stay tuned."

[simbrooks]

Anyone have any news about how Jamaica and the Caymans were affected? I guess direct communications would be challenging with satellite receivers either damaged or hidden away as they were on Coz. Been reading news stories (however much one can believe those) from the Cancun area. It seems the vast majority were evacuated inland, with many who did not leave being moved to shelters. Saw one story mentioning how 2,000 tourists from several hotels were moved to one gym, "and the army simply barred the doors."
Caymans (http://www.scubaboard.com/showthread.php?t=104816), not sure on Jamaica.

[DandyDon]

Caymans (http://www.scubaboard.com/showthread.php?t=104816), not sure on Jamaica.
Sounds like a light touch - little damage, great to hear. Could have been much worse.

From what I've read of the Cancun evacuations, I would have hated to have been one of the last ones to escape - or wose, one of the ones in the shelters. :11:

[DandyDon]

Now that Emily is not a threat to Caribbean, Cozumel. and Cancun area scuba divers, my thoughts are with those living where she is hitting now...

[mushymom]

I believe they recycle them every 6 years. The only time they retire a name is if it is a major, and I mean major hurricaine that had alot of deaths associated with it. If you want to check out the names lists and historical hurricaines, check out www.noaa.gov
Great site for Hurricaine info. :D