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AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 51.2 WEST OR ABOUT
800 MILES...1290 KM... EAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1445 MILES...2325
KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.
EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES
...335 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
ALTHOUGH EPSILON IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY AFFECT BERMUDA... LARGE
OCEAN SWELLS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF
EPSILON WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND MAY PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS AROUND THE ISLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
Epsilon has been upgraded to a 75-mph hurricane, only the 6th December hurricane ever recorded. Epsilon joins the ranks of Hurricane Nichole (1998), Hurricane Lili (1984), Hurricane Alice (1954), an unnamed 1925 storm, and an unnamed hurricane from 1887 as the only December hurricanes recorded in the Atlantic. Epsilon's location is the second farthest north and east of any December hurricane (next to Nicole of 1998), and marks the record 14th hurricane to form in the Atlantic this year. The previous record was 12 hurricanes, set in 1969.
from http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html
Epsilon is apparently traversing a very narrow ribbon of relatively warm ocean waters of 75 - 77 F (22-23C), which has allowed its intensification. Water temperatures across the entire North Atlantic are still unusually high, averaging about 2 F higher than normal. Very cool waters of about 70 F (21 C) lie just 200 miles from Epsilon, so its intensification to hurricane status is likely short-lived. By Saturday night, cold waters and increasing wind shear should put an end to Epsilon's life--and perhaps the Hurricane Season of 2005.
Long range computer models are forecasting somewhat favorable conditions for tropical storm formation to return next week to the Caribbean Sea, and last through mid-December. I expect there is at least a 40% chance that Tropical Storm Zeta will appear in the Caribbean by the middle of the month.
I'll delay my summary of why the United States suffered so many hurricane strikes the past two years until next week.
Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 21
Statement as of 10:00 am EST on December 04, 2005
after a slight weakening overnight...morning satellite images
indicate that Epsilon has restrengthened. The eye has become more
symmetric and the ring of convection is stronger than yesterday.
T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are 4.5 on the Dvorak scale and on this
basis...the initial intensity is increased to 75 knots. There are
no clear reasons...and I am not going to make one up...to explain
the recent strengthening of Epsilon and I am just describing the
facts. However...I still have to make an intensity forecast and the
best bet at this time is to predict weakening due to cold water
...High shear and dry air.
Epsilon is moving eastward at 10 knots...running ahead of a strong
mid-latitude trough. But soon...according to the global
models...the cyclone will be trapped south of a developing ridge
which eventually force Epsilon southward and then southwestward.
There is fairly good guidance agreement in showing this motion.
Although Epsilon will encounter warmer waters once it moves toward
the southwest. However...the upper level winds are expected to be
highly unfavorable and Epsilon will likely become a remnant low. I
heard that before about Epsilon...haven't you?
Forecaster Avila