Tropical Storm Chanchu [Caloy/02W/0601]

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Halthron

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As of 5am Wed May 10th, the storm is at 8.7 N & 131.1 E (east of Mindanao, NW of Palau). Pressure is 991, max winds are 47 knots and it's moving WNW at 5 knots. The storm is expected to become a typhoon within the next 24 hours and the current projected track has it over Batangas on Saturday.

Edit: Fixed error
 
Thanks for the info Halthron. Hopefully it does not impact DOR IV. I'm not coming in until the 17th.
 
Good luck over there.

Less than 2 months until The Season kicks off over here.... :11:
 
As of 11am, current location is 9.3 N and 130.4 E. Pressure is 984 with sustained winds of 55 knots and movement at 8 knots WNW.

DandyDon:
Good luck over there.

Less than 2 months until The Season kicks off over here.... :11:
Thanks Don :D
 
As of 5pm, typhoon Caloy can be found at 11.6 N, 126.3 E, just east of Samar. The storm has sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts to 90 knots. Pressure is 967, it's moving WNW at 10 knots and seas in the center are at 26 ft.

The latest track shows the storm turning south a bit, with the center of the storm avoiding central Luzon, the map shows it going down the gap between Batangas and Puerto Galera on Saturday morning.
 
From Earth Observatory by NOAA link
Typhoon Chanchu

Tropical Storm Chanchu formed in the western Pacific on May 8, 2006, roughly 500 miles east of the Philippines. The storm had been gradually building strength and size, but as of May 11, 2006, it remained a slow moving storm with only hints of developing stronger cyclonic structure. The storm was not expected to build strength in the next few days until crossing the Philippines, after which it was forecast to gain power and size as it continued on a projected westbound track across the South China Sea. Chanchu could eventually pose a significant threat to Indochina.
From wwwa.accuweather.com
Tropical Storm Or Typhoon
Friday, May 12, 2006
May 12, 2006

That Chanchu has cut through the heart of the Philippines is beyond dispute--it landed from the east late Thursday, local time, over northern Samar Island. It has since winged westwards reaching the area of Mindora as I write. But there is a lack of consensus as to whether Chanchu was--and, indeed, is--a typhoon. A scan of local government advisories is consistent in showing the status of strong tropical storm whereas the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has reckoned upon typhoon status since landfall for Chanchu. Having look, albeit not exhaustively, at some synoptic and METAR data, I found no reason to believe that the storm was a typhoon as of late Friday, Philippines time.

Whatever the latest status of Chanchu, it strikes me as a given that it will be a typhoon within 12 to at most 24 hours. The South China Sea, which lies in the direct path of Chanchu, hosts sea-surface temperatures at/near 30 degrees Celsius to about the 20th parallel. From satellite imagery, Chanchu has good, concentric outflow, so it should deepen once its breaks free of the topographic hobbles posed by the rugged Philippines.

It is the conscensus of model output that Chanchu will swing northwards Sunday and Monday. Approach to South China--potentially Hong Kong--is indicated for late Wednesday and early Thursday, local time. One thing I have seen today is that the trend in all models is westward with bias towards landfall in South China and thus away from a path into the Formosa Strait and Taiwan. Early this week, there were hints of Chanchu cutting east of the Philippines and Taiwan. If I were on Hainan Island or even Vietnam, I would be loathe to see this trend persist, as it looks as though Chanchu has room to breach the category-3 (equivalent) threshold over the South China Sea.
 

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