90L, 91L, 92L (Humberto?)

WunderBlog:

Gulf of Mexico disturbance (90L)
An area of disturbed weather developed in the southern Gulf of Mexico last night, just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. This region was designated "90L" by NHC. Strong upper level winds from the north are creating about 15-20 knots of wind shear over the region, and this shear is expected to remain a rather high 15-25 knots through Monday afternoon. By Monday night, the shear is expected to drop below 10 knots, which may allow some development of 90L. The system is headed west-northwest towards Texas, and residents of Texas, northern Mexico, and Louisiana should monitor this system. None of the reliable hurricane genesis models develop 90L into a tropical depression.

Tropical wave off the coast of Africa (91L)
A strong tropical wave near 10N 34W, a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, is kicking up some disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity. This disturbance was designated "91L" by NHC this morning. Last night's QuikSCAT pass showed a broad, ill-defined circulation associated with the disturbance. The disturbance is under about 10 knots of wind shear. Shear is forecast to remain below 10 knots over the disturbance over the next few days, and this system has the potential to develop as it heads west at 15 mph. Several of the computer models do develop this system, and predict that it may begin to acquire a more northwesterly track in response to a big non-tropical storm over the mid-Atlantic between Europe and the U.S. This disturbance has an environment similar to the one that spawned Hurricane Dean. The GFS-based SHIPS intensity model is forecasting that this will be a Category 1 hurricane 4-5 days from now, and I am expecting at least a tropical storm will form by then.

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nhc:

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
AND IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND IT
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND 15 MPH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAIN MINIMAL THIS
EVENING. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
THIS WAVE COULD BRING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW. CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

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soonerwink:

What are the chances of my Flower Garden trip on Sept 17-19 getting cancelled? I never paid much attention to these storms until they turned into hurricanes in the past. But Dean cancelled my original trip.

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rdharbis1:

The models for TD 8 need to change! I am going to St. Thomas in two weeks so we need to tweak the parameters a bit and re-run .

I wish it were so simple. Alas, I can only hope that it either dwindles or blows on through!

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