Five-E Expected To Be Tropical Storm On Western Mexico

Discussion...
Visible satellite images indicate that the area of disturbed weather
south of Acapulco has developed enough circulation and deep
convection to be classified as a 25-kt tropical depression. There
is some shear over the depression and development is expected to be
slow. Nevertheless...the depression is forecast to become a
tropical storm in 24 hours or so.


The center is very difficult to locate at this time and appears to
be on the eastern side of the convection. The initial motion
is uncertain but it appears to be toward the northwest at 4
knots. Since the depression is embedded within very weak steering
currents...only a slow northwestward drift...3 to 4 knots...is
expected during the next few days. This forecast would keep the
cyclone moving very close to the southwestern coast of Mexico for
about 4 to 5 days...and only a small deviation to the north would
bring the center to the coast or even inland. In fact...some the
global models bring the depression inland over southwestern Mexico
in a few days. Therefore...a Tropical Storm Warning has been
issued for a portion of the coast...and this warning will probably
have to be revised later on.

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