Gustav Looks at Northern Caribbean - Keep the shutters up

[DandyDon]

Looks like she's following in Fay's wake sorta...

[DandyDon]

Good news for northern Caribbean to Florida: I-94 has shifted aim to the Windward islands and the heart of the sea, currently at 35 mi/hr - 4 mi/hr short of Tropical Storm if she develops....


A large but disorganized area of disturbed weather centered about
350 miles east of the Windward Islands is moving to the west-
northwest at 15 mph. Any development of this system should be slow
to occur during the next couple of days. Regardless of
development...locally heavy rains and gusty winds are expected to
overspread portions of the leeward and windward tonight and
continue into tomorrow.

[DandyDon]

Oops, it veered back northerly and upgraded to Tropical Depression. Could still wander anywhere west but expected to build into T-Storm and continue north..

Satellite and surface observations indicate that the low pressure
area located over the central Caribbean about 250 miles south of
Santo Domingo continues to show signs of organization. Upper-level
winds are favorable for additional development...and the system
could become a tropical depression at any time today or tonight.
Watches and/or warnings may be required for portions of Hispaniola
later today. Interests in Jamaica...eastern Cuba...and the
southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of the low as it
moves northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. An Air Force Reserve unit
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
later today.

[psldivebum]

I just hope that it is not a repeat of the '04-'05 season.....God help us

[DandyDon]

Now known as Tropical Storm Gustav with expectations to make Cat-1 status with possible landings at a variety of destinations....

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gustav...located about 130 miles south-southeast of Port-au-
Prince Haiti...and the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is
issuing public advisories on Tropical Depression Fay...located over
east-central Mississippi.

[TwoBitTxn]

I'm seeing reports calling this one to develop into a major. Forcast paths are putting it between Mobile and Galveston. Another Katrina? I hope not.

[DandyDon]

Yep, now Hurricane Gustav with projections of soon being Cat-3 as it powers up over warm Caribbean waters. Looking at Jamaica tomorrow, Cozumel this weekend, then the Gulf coast maybe next week. Fill up your gas tanks as prices could jump when they shut down the Gulf rigs...

[lamont]

current predictions are of a category 3 hurricane wandering around in the gulf of mexico. sounds like its going to make life interesting for someone...

there is a bit of wind shear in the gulf of mexico, but i haven't re-found where the wind shear forecasts are to get an idea of what it'll look like ~5 days out...

[lamont]

The wunderblog discussion here:

Wunder Blog : Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1043&tstamp=200808)

Points out that the tracks aren't really known well, might hit the yucutan, yucutan channel or cuba... but if it heads through the yucutan channel there's a loop current eddy from july that it could pick up a lot of intensity from. That could spin it up into a category 5

[DandyDon]

The wunderblog discussion here:

Wunder Blog : Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1043&tstamp=200808)

Points out that the tracks aren't really known well, might hit the yucutan, yucutan channel or cuba... but if it heads through the yucutan channel there's a loop current eddy from july that it could pick up a lot of intensity from. That could spin it up into a category 5
His discussion on that page is fascinating. Interesting that the Texas Gulf could not only harbor an eddy from July but even a remnant from April - attached. He noted that the hills of Haiti had weaken Gustav, but you're right - if he finds that eddy, he could energize. Hehe, his prediction discussion is almost humorous - emphasis mine...

The track forecast for Gustav
The latest 12Z (8 am EDT) model runs continue to be in good agreement on the 1-3 day track of Gustav, and we can be confident that Gustav will turn west and pass south of Cuba after leaving Haiti. The trough of low pressure currently exiting the U.S. East Coast and pulling Gustav northwest is expected to move off to the east, allowing a ridge of high pressure to build in and force Gustav due west or slightly south of due west. After three days, there is more divergence in the models. The NOGAPS model no longer foresees landfall on Mexico's Yucatan, and now takes Gustav to a final landfall in the Florida Panhandle on Monday. The ECMWF is now the only model predicting a landfall in the Yucatan. This model predicts a second landfall in Texas. The GFDL is a little slower than its previous run, but still forecasts a Category 3/4 hurricane hitting Louisiana on Sunday evening. The UKMET prefers a Texas landfall. The GFS is not much help--it dissipates Gustav.

[lamont]

That eddy is over 90W, 25N and HWRF, GFDL and UKMET all take it over that eddy right now.

[DandyDon]

The hills of Haiti certainly did knock him back a notch, but he'll back. Looks like Cozumel diving may be out Sunday, then who knows where next week? Florida Panhandle, New Orleans, Houston...??

[lamont]

the models are starting to shift it north earlier now and take it over cuba. that might tear it up quite a bit and miss the warm eddy.

[DandyDon]

If Cuba has big hills where it crosses, it'll take some spunk out. Plane is going out today to look...

[Rick Murchison]

This morning's forecast is nasty, slowing the storm's arrival in Louisiana by nearly a day, while keeping the eye over water all the way to the Gulf coast... and putting Grand Cayman right in the northeastern eye-wall as it passes there.
Not good...
Rick

[DandyDon]

This morning's forecast is nasty, slowing the storm's arrival in Louisiana by nearly a day, while keeping the eye over water all the way to the Gulf coast... and putting Grand Cayman right in the northeastern eye-wall as it passes there.
Not good...
Rick
Veering a little closer to Cozumel, Cancun and Holbox it seems....

[DandyDon]

Path shifting a little away from the Yucatan, just now arriving in the Caymans...

[lamont]

back up to hurricane strength and getting bigger and sucking up energy from warm water.

check out this comment:

Wunder Blog : Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1049&tstamp=200808)

"It's time to leave New Orleans
Today is the 3rd anniversary of Hurricane Katrina's catastrophic hit on the Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama coast. Unfortunately, I think that people living in New Orleans should mark the anniversary of Katrina by getting the heck out of the city. You live at the bottom of a bowl, ten or so feet below sea level. This is not natural. Nature wants to fill up this bowl with huge quantities of Gulf of Mexico sea water. There is a storm capable of doing that bearing down on you. If you live in New Orleans, I suggest you take a little Labor Day holiday--sooner, rather than later, to beat the rush--and get out of town. Gustav is going to come close to you, and there's no sense messing with a major hurricane capable of pushing a Category 3 storm surge to your doorstep."

Although he later gives only a 10% chance of hurricane force winds hitting NOLA.

[DandyDon]

A major jump to Cat-4 now going for Cat-5. Tough one for western Cuba. Projections for Louisiana into Texas suggest seeking high ground ASAP whether the windows are covered are not. If he does hit that cold eddy, that could weaken him a little, but still a major threat for the lowlands. A couple of models project him turning left and heading down the coast. :11: Talk about worst case scenarios - just nearly!

[bobmaggi]

A quick question. . . do you think Hanna is impacting Gustav in any way. . .or is she too far away? Just wondering.

Also, it looks like the computer models are ALL UP IN THE AIR as far as where Hanna is headed!

Tropical Storm: Computer Model Hurricane Forecasts : Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200808_model.html#a_topad)

what would we do w/o DandyDon and his hurricane info! Take care, Maggi

[DandyDon]

A quick question. . . do you think Hanna is impacting Gustav in any way. . .or is she too far away? Just wondering.
Haha, like I would have any idea. Dr Masters is the best source probly, altho Lamont seems to understand these things well. My personal guess is Hanna has nothing to do with Gus but just might follow him later on.

what would we do w/o DandyDon and his hurricane info! Take care, Maggi

:lol2: Go to that site for more comprehensive info I hope. :)

[lamont]

A quick question. . . do you think Hanna is impacting Gustav in any way. . .or is she too far away? Just wondering.


Too far away:

Wunder Blog : Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1052&tstamp=200808)



The tropical disturbance behind Hanna, near 22N 45W, is under too much wind shear to develop, and will not influence Hanna's track over the next 2-3 days. If Gustav stalls over the western Gulf of Mexico, as some models are predicting, Hanna's track may be influenced by the presence of another hurricane so close to it. The FujiWhara Effect occurs when two hurricanes approach within 900 miles of each other (roughly the diameter of the Gulf of Mexico). The two storms tend to rotate counter-clockwise around a common center. This effect would tend to send Gustav southwest, over Texas, and Hanna to the northwest. Since Hanna and Gustav are forecast to be roughly 1000 miles apart, it is unlikely that this effect will be a major player in the track.

[DandyDon]

Attention Louisiana: Katrina was only a rehearsal for The Big One...!

I do hope most went to Denver. Looks like he could break up over Texas and even bring me some rain. Rain is always nice this time of year with the cotton crop finishing up...

[DocIndyDiver]

I wonder what the Oriskany is going to look like after the storm. I remember the Speigel Grove before and after her flip and that storm wasn't even close!

[DandyDon]

I wonder what the Oriskany is going to look like after the storm. I remember the Speigel Grove before and after her flip and that storm wasn't even close!
Interesting question. I'm sure a lot of things will look different by tomorrow. Fortunately Gus was weakened by a couple of factors before landing in Louisiana altho storm surge, winds, rain, and flooding will still be significant, then the path of possible flooding may continue towards Dallas & Tulsa before heading up thru the Mississippi drainage unless it doubles back on Louisiana, Arkansas or Houston? It's going to be a few days before this one is over...

[lamont]

looks like NOLA dodged a bullet. it was a little bit too far to the west to hammer NOLA with the worst storm surges, but still had ~8 foot surges and there were wind waves breaking over levees.

if gustav hadn't sucked in a bunch of dry air after it went over cuba it could have been a lot worse...

hanna just made hurricane status...

[diver 85]

looks like NOLA dodged a bullet. it was a little bit too far to the west to hammer NOLA with the worst storm surges, but still had ~8 foot surges and there were wind waves breaking over levees.

if gustav hadn't sucked in a bunch of dry air after it went over cuba it could have been a lot worse...

hanna just made hurricane status...


Nah, takes more than that to get us...........10-4 big guy???