Hurricane Ike Looks at Northern Antilles, T&Cs, Bahamas

[DandyDon]

Expected to make Cat-1 and follow Hanna to an extent...

[lamont]

dammit you're quick...

[DandyDon]

dammit you're quick...

:lol:
I was just about to post about TD9 as the upgrade happened...

[DandyDon]

Just leave the shutters up from Hanna; Ike is following a similar approach and historically storms there tend to go north to northwest - away from the Caribbean...

[DennisS]

It's amazing, total news coverage, models, hurricane satellites, PHds, hurricane hunter aircraft, and predictions. It's two days out and all they can say is Hannah will probably make land somewhere between south florida and north carolina. All these assets and all they can do is warn us about the "CONE OF UNCERTAINTY" which follows the "CONE OF CONCERN" you can now get "CONE ON YOUR PHONE" from one of the local news stations.To say that Ike will follow Hannah means nothing, they don't know where Hannah is going. Lots of hooplah but all they can say over and over is the same general info. No one knows where it will hit.

[DandyDon]

Varying forces at work I suppose, and Hanna seems to be clearing a path thru some of it for Ike. Be prepared and stay that way. From Dr.Masters....
The track forecast for Hanna
The current steering flow driving Hanna to the southeast is very weak, and we can expect erratic motion over the next day. By Wednesday, a rather strong high pressure ridge will build over Hanna, forcing it northwest to a landfall in the Southeast U.S. Due to the storm's expected rather random motion over the next day, plus the expected track of Hanna parallel to the Southeast U.S. coast, the location of final landfall has a much higher uncertainty than usual. South Carolina would be the best bet, since it sticks out further than northern Florida and Georgia.

[tridacna]

It's amazing, total news coverage, models, hurricane satellites, PHds, hurricane hunter aircraft, and predictions. It's two days out and all they can say is Hannah will probably make land somewhere between south florida and north carolina. All these assets and all they can do is warn us about the "CONE OF UNCERTAINTY" which follows the "CONE OF CONCERN" you can now get "CONE ON YOUR PHONE" from one of the local news stations.To say that Ike will follow Hannah means nothing, they don't know where Hannah is going. Lots of hooplah but all they can say over and over is the same general info. No one knows where it will hit.

I'm a mathematician. I worked with a group of meteorologists for several years. The algorithms and math for weather prediction are insanely difficult. Do not underestimate how good these guys are. If you don't (or can't) understand the difficulty of this, lay off the criticism. It's impossibly difficult to predict patterns and storm direction to the degree that you expect. A few years ago, they were unable to even predict hurricane preformation. Thousands of lives have been saved because of these models.

[DennisS]

I'm a mathematician. I worked with a group of meteorologists for several years. The algorithms and math for weather prediction are insanely difficult. Do not underestimate how good these guys are. If you don't (or can't) understand the difficulty of this, lay off the criticism. It's impossibly difficult to predict patterns and storm direction to the degree that you expect. A few years ago, they were unable to even predict hurricane preformation. Thousands of lives have been saved because of these models.

My backdoor is 10 foot from the water, I'm not all that interested in the math. Do I go or do I stay, if I head north will I be going into the hurricane or should I stay put. If they can't tell me that I wish they would lay off the constant newspaper and television coverage. THE CONE is doing me no good at all. It comes down to maybe yes, maybe no with all the math and science being equal to the magic 8 ball when it comes to making a decision.

[DandyDon]

Denver is quite nice this time of year, but Colorado Springs has a lot to offer. Like I mentioned to an online friend today: "You live in the hurricane state; gotta stay prepared, huh?" Her reply: "Grrrrr"

Feeling a little shell shocked, Dennis? Go mountain hiking, relax. ;)

[Doubler]

I'm just hoping the damn thing stays away from the Caymans. Leaving for the Aggressor on Friday. Selfish, I know and I am sorry. but....

[tridacna]

My backdoor is 10 foot from the water, I'm not all that interested in the math. Do I go or do I stay, if I head north will I be going into the hurricane or should I stay put. If they can't tell me that I wish they would lay off the constant newspaper and television coverage. THE CONE is doing me no good at all. It comes down to maybe yes, maybe no with all the math and science being equal to the magic 8 ball when it comes to making a decision.

I can't control the press. They love that stuff. I imagine that they're drooling for Florida to take a big hit to boost ratings. Best advice is to move to New Mexico or Arizona. :eyebrow:

[DandyDon]

Looks like Ike is serious business...

From Cape Verde-type hurricane - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cape_Verde-type_hurricane)
A Cape Verde-type hurricane is an Atlantic hurricane that develops near the Cape Verde islands, off the west coast of Africa. The average hurricane season has about two Cape Verde-type hurricanes, which are usually the most intense storms of the season because they often have plenty of warm open ocean over which to develop before encountering land.
The Galveston 1900 and Miami 1926 hurricanes - the two biggest killers in US storm history - were Cape Verde-type storms. From Dr. Masters...
Ike
Tropical Storm Ike continues getting organized over the middle Atlantic, and has the potential to become a large and dangerous Cape Verdes-type hurricane by Monday, when it is expected to be in the southeastern Bahama Islands. Visible satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity is starting to wrap around the core of the storm, and Ike has about 50% of an eyewall built. Upper-level outflow is good, and Ike is in a very favorable upper-level wind environment, with an upper-level anticyclone overhead, and wind shear less than 10 knots. Ike has moistened the atmosphere around it enough to wall off a large amount of dry air that surrounds it. Rather cool sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of 27.5°C. SSTs will quickly warm to 29°C over the next two days, but the shear is forecast to increase to 20-35 knots Thursday through Friday. The SHIPS model responds by strengthening Ike only to a Category 1 hurricane today, then weakening it to a tropical storm during the higher shear, then strengthening it again to a Category 1 hurricane by Saturday. The HWRF and GFDL models do not predict the shear will affect Ike as much Thursday and Friday, and intensify the storm into a Category 2 or higher hurricane by Sunday. The HWRF makes Ike a Category 4 hurricane in the eastern Bahama Islands on Monday, and the GFDL has Ike hitting eastern Cuba as a Category 2 or 3 hurricane on Monday. I expect Ike to be a hurricane by Thursday morning, and a Category 3 or higher hurricane by Monday.

The longer term fate of Ike is highly uncertain. The ECMWF and GFS models both forecast that Hanna will be strong enough to create a weakness in the ridge of high pressure steering Ike to the west. Ike will then follow Hanna's path, recurving northwards. the timing of this recurvature is critical, as the GFS shows that Ike will miss the U.S., while the ECMWF forecasts a strike in South Florida on Tuesday, then another landfall in North Carolina later in the week. If Hanna is not as strong or is faster-moving than these models expect, Ike may not recurve. Instead, Ike will cross Cuba or move through the Florida Straits, eventually emerging into the Gulf of Mexico to cause havoc there.

[DennisS]

I can't control the press. They love that stuff. I imagine that they're drooling for Florida to take a big hit to boost ratings. Best advice is to move to New Mexico or Arizona. :eyebrow:

I've driven I-10 through both states, there's a whole lot of nothing out there, I'll take an occasional hurricane

[DandyDon]

With things always subject to change, Ike has taken a big jump in power already, now Cat-4. I cannot imagine steady winds of over 130 miles/hour. :shocked2: Current projections are for him to retain power in the Cat-3 to 4 range as he skims Hispaniola & Cuba, hits the T&Cs and Bahamas where he will be crossing even warmer waters than now - then on possibly to Florida where his angle of approach could even take in all of the state. With only 4 shopping days left, I hope everyone there is stocked up and prepared for a bad one....

[lamont]

that is crazy fast intensification.

it'll be interesting to see how well the cat4 eyewall can protect it from increasing wind shear and how large the wind field will grow to...

[Al Mialkovsky]

It's a full blown hurrincane, currently a cat 4 and this one will be bad. 145 mph steady winds with gusts to 185.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_5day.gif

[DandyDon]

This will give an idea about why projections change so much so quickly. From Dr.Masters...
Ike's long-term fate has two main possibilities:

1) Ike may hit eastern Cuba, as forecast by the latest (12Z, 8am EDT) runs of the GFDL and ECMWF models, and a number of ensemble members of the latest 12Z GFS model (Figure 2). A hit on Cuba would severely disrupt the storm, weakening it to a Category 1 or 2. Ike could then move on into the Gulf of Mexico and re-intensify, as forecast by the ECMWF model.

2) Ike may plow through the Bahamas and come very close to South Florida (the consensus of the HWRF, NOGAPS, and GFS models). A trough of low pressure may then pull Ike to north. This turn to the north might occur over Florida, or over the western Bahamas, within 200 miles of the Florida coast. In the latter case, North Carolina might be at risk. The recent model trend has been to depict a weaker trough, resulting in Ike getting stranded, like Fay and Gustav did. Ike would resume a slow motion to the west as ridge of pressure builds in, potentially crossing Florida into the Gulf of Mexico.

There is a third possibility--Ike may recurve before hitting the U.S., and move harmlessly out to sea. That possibility appears lower probability than cases 1 and 2 above, at this point.
Whether Ike heads off into the Gulf, to the Caribbean, or up thru Florida, he's bad....

[lamont]

at least the shear is pulling ike apart and weakening it rather than intensifying it.

[tridacna]

at least the shear is pulling ike apart and weakening it rather than intensifying it.

That is lame news and will undoubtedly disappoint the TV stations and newspapers. Darn.

[DandyDon]

That is lame news and will undoubtedly disappoint the TV stations and newspapers. Darn.
Not enough to relax I don't think. He may drop to Cat-2 soon but bounce back over warmer waters - expected to be back to Cat-3 by Saturday night and winds in excess of 110 miles/hour are still tremendous. Flooding is the major risk to life tho. Subject to change, he's expected to inflict heavily on the T&Cs, maybe all of the Bahamas, then possible all of Florida before who knows what next. Looks like a high alert situation for anyone between Purto Rico and Jacksonville FL - unless he rolls over Cuba weakened to re-energize in the Caribbean, or over Key West to come alive in the Gulf. Someone is probly going to pay dearly; hope all are prepared and most flying to Denver.

[deepstops]

Correct-o-mundo Don: Hurricane Ike, 2008 / Stormpulse / Hurricane tracking, mapping (http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-ike-2008)

It could all change (and probably will, more than once) but it's going to cause someone to have a very bad day.
As of tonight, he's pointed right at SE FL as a Cat 3. I was here (in western Fort Lauderdale) for Wilma as a Cat 3, 98% of Broward County was w/o power, much of it for over a week.

[lamont]

Not enough to relax I don't think. He may drop to Cat-2 soon but bounce back over warmer waters - expected to be back to Cat-3 by Saturday night and winds in excess of 110 miles/hour are still tremendous. Flooding is the major risk to life tho. Subject to change, he's expected to inflict heavily on the T&Cs, maybe all of the Bahamas, then possible all of Florida before who knows what next. Looks like a high alert situation for anyone between Purto Rico and Jacksonville FL - unless he rolls over Cuba weakened to re-energize in the Caribbean, or over Key West to come alive in the Gulf. Someone is probly going to pay dearly; hope all are prepared and most flying to Denver.

Yeah, so far the rapid strengthening didn't carry with it an expansion of the wind field into some kind of Katrina-sized monster, though, and the shear is preventing it from developing. So far I haven't seen any estimates of how big the wind field is likely to get when it restrengthens (probably too far out at this point).

[bobmaggi]

Denver is quite nice this time of year, but Colorado Springs has a lot to offer. Like I mentioned to an online friend today: "You live in the hurricane state; gotta stay prepared, huh?" Her reply: "Grrrrr"

Feeling a little shell shocked, Dennis? Go mountain hiking, relax. ;)

As much as we really dislike the cold weather and snow up here in SW Michigan, we have been discussing that we would rather handle the snow (even the unpredictable lake effect snows off of Lake MI) than deal w/ such uncertainty of hurricanes/tropical storms. Maybe better for us to spend winters in FL ( after hurricane season) and summers in MI, and trips all over throughout the year??? so many decisions to make when we decide to retire. . . soon! Take care, Maggi

[likelite]

Ike stays on track, and we're looking at tornado warnings in Nashville for sure...yikes!

[Al Mialkovsky]

It's a cat 4 now. The computer model doesn't make it look good for anyone. Still blowing hard and moving our way.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_model.gif


I'm not a fan of these things when they hit land at cat 4

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_5day.gif

[LIVES4SHARKS]

This is going to be an ugly storm. If it goes North, I have a feeling Georgia might not be able to skirt this one. Needless to say, I am preparing for an interesting week. I am on the team that stays at the trauma center. So I will get to ride it out if Ike comes this way! My heart goes out to Florida and all those that have already been affected by the previous storms! My Dad is in Ft Myers so I am keeping a sharp eye out on this one!


Carolyn:shark2:

[DandyDon]

From Dr.Masters this morning...
Track forecast for Ike
Ike has begun a west-southwest motion in recent hours, which increases the probability that the hurricane will enter the Southeast Bahama Islands on Sunday. The computer models which called for this more southerly path include the GFDL and HWRF models. With its latest run (06Z, 2am EDT) the GFDL takes Ike through the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands as a Category 3 hurricane early Sunday morning. The HWRF has the same track, but makes Ike a Category 4. The two models then diverge, with the GFDL taking Ike into eastern Cuba as a Category 3 hurricane on Monday, and along the length of Cuba into the Florida Keys as a Category 2 hurricane on Wednesday morning. The HWRF has Ike skirting the northern coast of Cuba, arriving at Key Largo, Florida as a Category 4 hurricane on Tuesday night.

Considerable uncertainty surrounds the path of Ike once the storm reaches the vicinity of South Florida, since a trough of low pressure capable of turning Ike to the north will be passing to the north. A turn to the north over South Florida, or just on either side of the state is possible. One possible track, similar to the NOGAPS model forecast, takes Ike near or over Miami, then northwards towards North Carolina. This is a track similar to Hurricane Floyd of 1999. Another feasible track, similar to the HWRF solution, is like Hurricane Donna of 1960, which blasted through the Keys as a Category 4 hurricane, then up the west coast of Florida.

It is also possible that the trough of low pressure will not be strong enough to turn Ike to the north, and that the storm will enter the Gulf of Mexico. A second trough of low pressure would then turn Ike north, resulting in a n eventual landfall on the Gulf Coast between the Florida Panhandle and Texas. This is the forecast of the ECMWF and GFS models. My current thinking is along these lines:

20% chance Ike will hit the east coast of Florida.
30% chance Ike will hit the Florida Keys.
30% chance Ike will hit Cuba. If this happens, there is 30% chance it would miss Florida and head into the Gulf of Mexico.
10% chance that Ike will miss Florida, but hit further north along the U.S. coast.
10% chance Ike will curve north out to sea and not hit the U.S.

Overall, I'd give the Gulf Coast a 70% chance of getting hit (including the west coast of Florida).

Florida Keys are at high risk
The Florida Keys are highly vulnerable to hurricanes, and are at great risk from Ike. With only one road connecting the Keys to the mainland, a 48-72 hours are required to evacuate the Keys. Tropical storm force winds can be expected in the Keys on Tuesday afternoon, which means officials in the Keys may need to start ordering evacuations on Saturday. This would likely begin as an evacuation of visitors and tourists on Saturday afternoon or Sunday morning.

I think now would be a good time to leave The Florida Keys; I hate bumper to bumper traffic. Anticipate a traffic split at Key Largo as some may be diverted to Card Sound Road - except I wonder what Hanna is doing to that exposed route today..?!

49577 49578

Looks like one model shows him briefly making Cat-5 before skirting the most populated island in the Caribbean - which has already last many lives to storms this year...

http://i33.tinypic.com/2yzhcvl.gif

[mike_s]

this doesn't look good for my upcoming trip...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/AL0908W5.gif

[DandyDon]

Oops...!

An odd shift now shows all models putting Ike thru the Florida Straits into the Gulf, expected to run wild as Cat-4.

49587 49588

He'll be the first to do that from there: 49589

[CBulla]

I recieved word at work just before I left that we may be under mandatory coastal evacuations on Monday. Quick note on that, I work for a private insurnace company and this is coming from the state insurance commission. :)

[DennisS]

They're starting the keys evacauation plan. I just saw it on the news.

Sat 9am Visitors
Sun 8am KW lower keys
Sun Noon Mid Keys
Sun 4 PM upper Keys

[deeper thoughts]

We are putting up shutters,securing the boat etc. Might be leaving Sunday to coconut creek(in laws) but not sure yet. Plenty of pets to move.
I dont like IKE!!!

[DandyDon]

Looks like Ike may dip a little further south even, losing some power with an overland run thru Cuba. Better news for Florida's Keys, altho risks remain high. A reminder from Dr.Masters: "Bay-side surge comes well after the storm center has passed the Keys, from the westerly winds behind the storm. Too many people have been harmed because they thought it was safe to go near the water on the bay side just after a storm has passed."

49640496414964249643

Looks like T&Cs, southern Bahamas and Hispaniola - the most populous island in the Caribbean are taking it now. "The British government arranged extra flights to move visitors to Turks and Caicos, a British crown colony, out of harm's way before the Providenciales airport was forced to close about noon."

Haiti has severe problems year 'round, but has really suffered this storm season. Before Ike: "Haiti faces a growing humanitarian crisis after receding floodwaters from tropical storm Hanna left hundreds of bodies on the ruined streets of the northern city of Gonaives. The death toll from the third major storm to hit the impoverished Caribbean country in recent weeks rose above 500 yesterday, with more than a quarter of a million people left homeless." A UN chartered ship arrived Friday and began distributing high-energy biscuits and water to emergency shelters where 40,000 people were marooned and increasingly desperate. "More than 10,000 people have left Gonaïves on foot, swimming and wading and heading for the next town about 45 miles to the south, said Daniel Rouzier, Haiti chairman of Food for the Poor."

http://i36.tinypic.com/2j1o65h.gif


After Hispaniola and Cuba, out into the Gulf, maybe a pass thru the Yucatan strait, on to Louisiana or Texas? Who knows? Time will tell.

[mir]

Get the Army's HAARP program to pull this storm south to Valenzuela so it won't screw up my planed PCB dive trip this weekend

[DandyDon]

PCB?

Grand Iguana Island, population around 1,000 and maximum elevation a little over 100 ft, took a bad hit last night. All the models seem to agree on Ike traveling much of the length of Cuba now. Aid has been delivered on Haiti and Cuba following Gust's earlier hits even from the US which maintains a trade embargo on Cuba. I'm sure aid will be severely needed in Haiti, Iguana, and Cuba after Ike.

After Cuba, the models do not agree because of too many variables affecting possible routes. With low wind shear and warm waters to cross, Ike could land in about a week as a Cat-3 anywhere on the Gulf between the Florida panhandle and Mexico with wide storm impact and even Tampa is not in the clear.

[mir]

Will Cuba and The United States open international relaytions in the interest of global peace when they need our help? I doubt the Russian will come to their aide this time

[DandyDon]

Will Cuba and The United States open international relaytions in the interest of global peace when they need our help? I doubt the Russian will come to their aide this time
Nope, or not planned for now, altho some US lawmakers suggest it...
US offers Cuba aid for hurricane victims - Yahoo! News (http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080905/pl_afp/cubaweatherstormusaid_080905221820)
WASHINGTON (AFP) - The US government said Friday it was trying to aid victims of severe Caribbean storms by offering Cuba supplies via relief groups and by releasing funds for Jamaica, Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

Washington's decision to contact Havana is in keeping with past US moves to send disaster aid to Cuba and does not mark a shift in US government policy toward isolating the Communist island nation, officials said.
I think the popular feeling among US lawmakers is wanting the aid to be delivered to the needy, not turned over to the government with some records of abuse.
Cuba Rejects American Offer of Hurricane Aid (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/07/world/americas/cubaforweb.html?ref=world)

Russia is indeed delivering: Another 2 RME (Russian) planes deliver a new humanitarian cargo to Cuba (http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=13045845&PageNum=0)

[DennisS]

Will Cuba and The United States open international relaytions in the interest of global peace when they need our help? I doubt the Russian will come to their aide this time

They do allow overflights of the hurricane hunter aircraft on an individual flight approval basis, so someone is talking to someone at some level

[DandyDon]

They do allow overflights of the hurricane hunter aircraft on an individual flight approval basis, so someone is talking to someone at some level
The countries do have a history of helping each other with storm info over a hundred years old. Cuba warned us about the 1900 Hurricane that leveled Galveston Is, even tho it did little good at the federal level.

[DandyDon]

Finished with Haiti, T&Cs, southern Bahamas, and Ike continues traveling the length of Cuba. The Florida Keys may be spared, and the evacuation has been suspended but return has been discouraged until Wednesday. Looks like Ike is dumping rain bands on the Caymans, may just miss Cancun, and head for Texas or northern Mexico - subject to change over the week....

[deeper thoughts]

Finished with Haiti, T&Cs, southern Bahamas, and Ike continues traveling the length of Cuba. The Florida Keys may be spared, and the evacuation has been suspended but return has been discouraged until Wednesday. Looks like Ike is dumping rain bands on the Caymans, may just miss Cancun, and head for Texas or northern Mexico - subject to change over the week....


Thnx for all the updates

[diver 85]

Just found this thread & haven't read any replies, but I've been following Ike for several days let's say......Looks like the lower Texas coast is a posssibility now, maybe close to CC???.......Good luck to ALL, here's hoping he shoots his wad before the FG and turns into nothing.......BTW, hope the FG makes it OK..........

www.crownweather.com........click on Ike.......

[DandyDon]

Thnx for all the updates
Kind of a digest of a better site I hope. YVW.
Just found this thread & haven't read any replies, but I've been following Ike for several days let's say......Looks like the lower Texas coast is a posssibility now, maybe close to CC???.......Good luck to ALL, here's hoping he shoots his wad before the FG and turns into nothing.......BTW, hope the FG makes it OK..........

The Ike would be a part of the natural cycle for the FG, but rough on any activities there. I'm sure the boats would stay in safe harbor.

Looks like he's going to drift further south, more towards the Rio Grande Vally this morning - except the wind map and some of the models don't seem to agree with the others? He's big enough to rain on the Yucatan with this track I suppose. New Orleans can breathe easier maybe...

[mike_s]

http://media.townhall.com/Townhall/Car/b/Gamble_T20080912.jpg

[DandyDon]

Rain bands from Cozumel to Tampa! :shocked2: The computer models are starting to agree on the Corpus Christi area for ground zero, altho the carnage will be broad and the storm surge will cover 100+ miles of shore. I'm sure that Houston doesn't want to repeat the Rita fiasco. Refineries have not shut down anywhere yet I don't think altho many platforms will be evacuated. Looks like it'll be bad on our coast by Saturday, then breakup over the state following - maybe even raining on me up here on the Panhandle-High Plains

From:Evacuations in Texas as deadly Ike moves in | NEWS.com.au (http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24328357-401,00.html)
PRESIDENT George W Bush declared an emergency in Texas today and state authorities began ordering evacuations as deadly Hurricane Ike churned in the Gulf of Mexico towards the US state.
The presidential declaration frees federal aid to boost local efforts, as the state girds for expected landfall later this week by Ike, which is forecast to pick up speed and become a major hurricane before slamming the Texas coast.

A mandatory evacuation order was to go into effect in the coastal area immediately south of Galveston, Texas, early today, Brazoria County officials said.

Ike has now moved into the Gulf of Mexico, home to the bulk of US oil producers, and is headed toward the southern Texas coastline where it could strike land early Saturday, according to the National Hurricane Centre.

Anglo-Dutch oil giant Shell said it would complete evacuating personnel from its offshore installations by today.

[lamont]

Ike is a really nasty one. This is not one to get "hurricane fatigue" over. This is one to run from.

Wunder Blog : Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1081&tstamp=200809)


Comparisons to Carla and Katrina

Ike is larger than Katrina was, both in its radius of tropical storm force winds--275 miles--and in it radius of hurricane force winds--115 miles. For comparison, Katrina's tropical storm and hurricane force winds extended out 230 and 105 miles, respectively. Ike's surge will probably rival the massive storm surge of Hurricane Carla of 1961. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas. Despite the fact that the center of Carla hit over 120 miles southwest of Houston, the hurricane drove a 15-foot storm surge into the bays along the south side of the city. Ike's maximum surge is not likely to reach the extreme values above 20 feet seen in Hurricane Carla, though.

The total energy of Ike

The amount of water Ike has put in motion is about 10% greater than what Katrina did, and thus we can expect Ike's storm surge damage will be similar to or greater than Katrina's. The way we can estimate this damage potential is to compute the total energy of Ike's surface winds (kinetic energy). To do this, we must look at how strong the winds are, and factor in the areal coverage of these winds. Thus, we compute the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) by squaring the velocity of the wind and summing over all regions of the hurricane with tropical storm force winds or higher. This "Integrated Kinetic Energy" was recently proposed by Dr. Mark Powell of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division as a better measure of the destructive power of a hurricane's storm surge than the usual Category 1-5 Saffir-Simpson scale. For example, Hurricane Katrina hit Mississippi as a strong Category 3 hurricane, yet its storm surge was more characteristic of a Category 5 storm. Dr. Powell came up with a new scale to rate potential storm surge damage based on IKE (not to be confused with Hurricane Ike!) The new scale ranges from 1-6. Katrina and Wilma at their peaks both earned a 5.1 on this scale (Figure 2). At 12:30pm EDT today, Ike earned a 5.2 on this scale, the second highest kinetic energy of any Atlantic storm in the past 40 years. Hurricane Isabel of 2003 had the highest. Note that the figures I quoted in this morning's blog saying Ike had an IKE of 180, 50% higher than Katrina's, were found to be in error due to some bad data from one of the Hurricane Hunter observations (the IKE is an experimental product, after all). Thus, this morning's IKE was actually a little lower than Katrina's.


and from:

Texas prepares for a gigantic Hurricane Ike - Yahoo! News (http://news.yahoo.com/story//ap/20080912/ap_on_re_us/ike)


But the storm was so big, it could inflict a punishing blow even in those areas that do not get a direct hit. Forecasters warned that because of Ike's size and the state's shallow coastal waters, it could produce a surge, or wall of water, 20 feet high, and waves of perhaps 50 feet. It could also dump 10 inches or more of rain.

"It's a big storm," Texas Gov. Rick Perry said. "I cannot overemphasize the danger that is facing us. It's going to do some substantial damage. It's going to knock out power. It's going to cause massive flooding."

Perhaps the sternest warning came from the National Weather Service for residents along a Gulf-facing stretch of Galveston Island and neighboring Bolivar Peninsula, which are both under mandatory evacuation orders. People ignoring the orders in single-family one- or two-story homes "will face certain death," read the statement Thursday from the local weather forecast office.

[DandyDon]

This morning's forecast show the computer models pretty well unanimous on landfall very near Houston and this afternoon's seem more in agreement, Cat-3 expectations even in the city followed by Cat-1 expectations as he approaches Dallas and Tropical Storm watches into Oklahoma and Arkansas. Oil platforms are closing in the Gulf with a quarter of the US refineries being closed. Yeah, it's going to be a tremendous blow to some of our most populated and vulnerable area as well as to the US economy.

Travelers with Houston or Dallas connections this weekend might be well advised to make other arrangements. The airlines are allowing no fee changes for those and many other airports. I'd certainly hate to get stuck in either; hotels are possibly full with evacuees.

We're getting extended rain in the Panhandle from the moisture that Lowell pumped in crossing Baja.

[lamont]

LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...
WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS
NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY
HOMES MAY FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE
CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD
AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS
WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE
FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY
EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN
MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE
WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SUCH WAVES
WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF
HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM
BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.



VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE AND
DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY.

STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES BEING
SEVERELY DAMAGED. THOSE THAT SURVIVE WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL
REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE MAJOR
DAMAGE...INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL COLLAPSE AND ROOFS BEING LIFTED
OFF. MANY WILL BE UNINHABITABLE. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL
INCUR MINOR DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...GUTTERS...AS WELL AS
BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL.

PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS...ESPECIALLY
TO THOSE BUILDINGS WITH LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL AND ALUMINUM
COVERINGS. OLDER LOW RISING APARTMENT ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN
OFF...AS WELL AS RECEIVING SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF ALL GLASS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN
OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL CAUSE DAMAGE...INJURY...AND POSSIBLE
FATALITIES.

NATURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES BECOMING
UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. NEARLY ALL LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP. BETWEEN
ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF OF HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES
WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED...MOST COMMON WHERE THE GROUND IS
SATURATED. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS
WILL BE DAMAGED.


i can't believe there are people who are going to try to ride this one out...

[DandyDon]

i can't believe there are people who are going to try to ride this one out...
This is the first major one for Houston in 25 years, and Rita's evacuation fiasco followed by the miss reduced the number who would take the warnings seriously. It's going to be bad.

[Pirate Lady]

Just spoke to my son in Metairie, La. and they are getting some bands from Ike. Schools closed and 50-70 mph gusts. If that's just outer bands, I can imagine what is in store.

May God Bless those in it's path.

[lamont]

from jeff masters blog:


NOAA's experimental storm surge forecast is calling for a 10% chance that the storm tide from Ike will reach 27-30 feet on the south and east sides of Houston. The exact track of Ike is key in determining if Galveston's 17-foot sea wall gets overtopped, flooding the city. A slight wobble 30 miles to the north of Galveston would put the city into offshore winds from Ike, possibly saving it from inundation. The situation is grim for Port Arthur, Texas, on the Louisiana border. The expected storm surge of 15-20 feet will overtop the city's seawall by six feet, resulting in flooding of the city and a number of major oil refineries. Expect a significant tightening of gas supplies in coming months, due to extensive damage to the oil refineries in the Houston and Port Arthur area.


Wunder Blog : Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1082&tstamp=200809)

[lamont]

more on gasoline prices from AP:


The oil and gas industry was closely watching the storm because it was headed straight for the nation's biggest complex of refineries and petrochemical plants. The upper Texas coast accounts for one-fifth of U.S. refining capacity, and many platforms were shut down. Wholesale gasoline prices jumped to around $4.85 a gallon for fear of vast shortages. That was up substantially from about $3.25 on Wednesday and less than $3 on Tuesday.


Hurricane Ike whips waves as it moves into Texas - Yahoo! News (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080912/ap_on_re_us/ike)

[cowdog77]

Sounds like Ike took a right hook just before landfall which resulted in less surge and damage than anticipated. We were glad...too close to the tropical storm winds range for comfort....lots of wind anyway, but no damage.

[RoatanMan]

I rely on Weather Channel

http://www.scubaboard.com/gallery/data/3040/IMG_1446_2.jpg:rofl3: