TD17 Forecast to be Major Hurricane in Caymans

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DandyDon

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Now named TS Paloma, and anticipated might have been a better word than forecast. From Dr.Master's...
The intensity forecast
Wind shear has dropped to a low 5 knots this afternoon, and is expected to remain very low, 0-5 knots, over the next two days. Water temperatures are warm, 29Ž°C, and this warm water extends to great depth. These are very favorable conditions for intensification--if the storm avoids passing too close to land near the northeast coast of Nicaragua. The latest (12Z, 7am EST) runs of both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will not interact will land enough to weaken the storm, and predict TD 17 will pass though the Cayman Islands on Saturday morning as a Category 2 hurricane, and strengthen to a Category 3 or 4 hurricane by landfall Sunday morning in central Cuba. The SHIPS intensity model is less aggressive, predicting a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds by Saturday. I give TD 17 a 70% chance of becoming a hurricane, and a 40% chance of becoming a major hurricane. The storm has the potential to imitate Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Michelle formed in the same region at the same time of year, and took just three days to intensify from a tropical depression to a Category 4 hurricane. Michelle made landfall in central Cuba as a Category 4 hurricane, then weakened to a Category 1 hurricane as it passed through the Bahamas.

The track forecast
A slow north-northwest motion to a point just offshore the Nicaragua-Honduras border is likely for TD 17 through Thursday. At that time, a strong trough of low pressure will be approaching the U.S. East Coast. There is some uncertainty whether this trough will be strong enough to lift TD 17 northwards across Cuba. Two major models, the NOGAPS and GFS, predict that TD 17 will be too weak to "feel" the influence of this trough, and they keep the storm trapped in the Caribbean near Honduras and Nicaragua. If this solution is correct, a major rain event for northern Nicaragua and Honduras is possible, with heavy rains of 5-10 inches likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. The storm would likely intensify to a tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane, depending upon how much interaction with land occurs. On the other hand, the GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF models predict that TD 17 will be strong enough to feel the trough. These models predict a northward motion through the Cayman Islands on Saturday, followed by a northeast turn and a landfall in central or eastern Cuba on Sunday morning. On Sunday afternoon, TD 17 would then pass through the central Bahamas as it accelerates to the northeast. These models predict a deeper, stronger storm that is more likely to feel the influence of the trough. The UKMET model is between these two solutions, and predicts TD 17 will get stranded in the Western Caribbean near the western tip of Cuba.

Given the current increasing trend in organization, I believe TD 17 will grow deep enough and strong enough to get pulled northward by the trough. The storm should move through the Cayman Islands on Saturday and across central or eastern Cuba on Sunday, as the GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF models are predicting. There is the potential that the storm could enter a period of rapid intensification on Saturday, bringing it to major hurricane status. Residents of the Cayman Islands, western Jamaica, and central and western Cuba should anticipate the possibility of a hurricane--possibly a major hurricane--affecting them Saturday and Sunday. If TD 17 crosses Cuba as expected and moves into the Bahamas, it will weaken due to the interaction with land and the presence of very high wind shear of 30-50 knots just north of Cuba. These effects should weaken the storm by at least 40 mph before it passes through the Bahamas. The HWRF and GFDL models predict TD 17 could be a Category 2 hurricane in the Bahamas, but I think a Category 1 hurricane is more likely.
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Its Paloma now, but not exactly "forecast" to be major, just potential. Wunderground is indicating Cat 2 as it passes weest of GC.
 
Its Paloma now, but not exactly "forecast" to be major, just potential. Wunderground is indicating Cat 2 as it passes weest of GC.
You're right; edited my first post a bit. Current maps...

Paloma.gif Paloma 2.gif

History shows that similar storms have been known to veer into the Yucatan, good that this one is not anticipated to do so, and good that it's not expected to hit the Gulf "bathtub".

Historical

Paloma Historical.gif

Looks like it's pumping a lot of moisture into Caymans and Cuba already. The red marker is Cayman Brac...

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Now Hurricane Paloma - forecast to hit Caymans over the next several hours. From Dr.Masters....
The latest (12Z, 7am EST) run of the HWRF model predicts Paloma will pass though the Cayman Islands on Saturday morning as a Category 2 hurricane. The GFDL model predicts a Category 3 hurricane, and the latest 18Z SHIPS model puts Paloma as a strong Category 1 hurricane with 95 mph winds in the Caymans. I believe Paloma will be a Category 3 hurricane by Saturday when it passes through the the Cayman Islands. Paloma will likely be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane at landfall in Cuba, and a strong tropical storm with 60-70 mph winds in the Bahamas.
Two models give it a chance of heading into the Gulf. :shocked2:
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What the hell?! Five computer models now show Paloma turning back on or after crossing Cuba...?!

From Dr.Masters...
The track forecast
A strong trough of low pressure approaching the U.S. East Coast is pulling Paloma to the north, and this trough should continue to pull the storm northwards and then turn it northeastward by Saturday morning.

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From Wunder Blog : Weather Underground
Hurricane Paloma exploded into a extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds last night as it hammered the Cayman Islands. Paloma now ranks as the second most powerful November hurricane on record, and stands poised to deliver Cuba a devastating blow tonight.

continued....
 

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Paloma is currently down to Tropical Storm status as the eye is over Cuba and expected to weaken more as it heads NNE into the Bahamas but all models suggest that she will double back west altho they do not agree on the path. She may be a threat for many days to come and if she gets into the Gulf...???
 

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Hi, We have a trip planned to Grand Caymans for Thanksgiving weekend. How are things there after storm? Very new to scubaboard and not sure how to ask for information about who do dive with and where to go on the island. Never been before! Thanks, Jill
 
Saturday afternoon, Dr.Master's report included...
Passage over Cuba combined with extremely high values of wind shear should tear apart Paloma before it reaches the central and southeastern Bahamas. The HWRF, GFDL, and SHIPS intensity models are all calling for Paloma to dissipate or be a tropical storm or tropical depression by the time it arrives in the Bahamas on Sunday, and this is a reasonable forecast. Paloma has virtually no chance of surviving long enough to threaten Florida.
He did not update Sunday. The system that's turning the storm looks like it will keep it in the Cuba to Bahamas area the rest of the week from today's projections, but the computer models all give it a chance of turning into warmer waters southwest of Cuba with three even looking at Cozumel. The Coz locals contend that hurricane season is over there in mid October, but Paloma may not know this...?
 

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