The Swine Flu thing...

[okiraku_diver]

nonessential activity of the government???
Mexico shuts many government offices, businesses (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/lt_swine_flu_mexico)

[1KWIK_69]

nonessential activity of the government???
Mexico shuts many government offices, businesses (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/lt_swine_flu_mexico)

Well in Cozumel I would clasify Dive shops, Hotels and restaurants as essential!
:D

[MAGELLAN]

And then there is the idiotic...!

Several countries have banned import of pork from the US & Mexico, even tho there is no chance of acquiring the illness from eating pork products.

And now Egypt is slaughtering all pigs even though no cases have been reported there, and people are not catching it from pigs nearly as much as from each other. The country only has 300,000 pigs to needlessly kill, I suppose because of the Muslim influence there, but still a stupid waste - and I kinda doubt that the farmers will be fairly reimbursed.

Now that's beautiful.... I actually had tears in my eyes from the laugh I got. :rofl3: -Ignorance is a many splendored thing-

I have a tripped planned to Cozumel for May 18th-27th, so I hope this thing will either be in full swing or fizzled out by then, so my decision will be clear.

BTW I thought the name of the antiviral drug was tamiflu, with an m? Also, (if I were to acquire some) I believe this is to be taken after symptoms occur, as it does not function as a vaccine, but only minimizes symptoms and speeds recovery. On the other hand, I took a doctor's advice once and bought Cipro when I went to Honduras a few years ago. Sure enough, on the flight home I started getting sick to my stomach, so I took the Cipro for the next few days, and I honestly don't think it helped and perhaps made it worse. Given that experience I'm not convinced drugs are all that helpful(within reason of course).

[DandyDon]

http://d.yimg.com/a/p/rids/20090430/i/r2930950962.jpg?x=213&y=335&xc=1&yc=1&wc=286&hc=450&q=85&sig=8Mpnmj2cRXe.IipyV4Cyzw--

The statue of Diana in Acapulco April 29, 2009.


Well in Cozumel I would clasify Dive shops, Hotels and restaurants as essential!
:D
Restaurants may well become a focus with people gathering, eating, perhaps with food exposed to activities of others in the room. Buffets and salad/taco bars more at risk than food served at the table. Didn't I read that Mexico City restaurants were open for to-go orders only?

The 6-7% mortality rate was a misunderstanding as that would have been three times as deadly as the 1918 strain. A pandemic like in 1918 would suggest 30% infection rate, 3% hospitalization, 2% of the infected or 0.6% of population death rate is the more expected...

When the Mexican health secretary spoke this week about a 6 or 7 percent death rate, his figures were based on the number of deaths divided by the number of suspected infections. But authorities cannot be certain how many people have been infected, especially those who suffered only mild symptoms.

Mexican authorities have not tried to count mild cases, focusing instead on the severely ill and the dead. So the death rate may be much lower than 6 or 7 percent and probably is, according to some experts.
Let's see for Cozumel's population of 73,193 (as of 2005 - anyone have today's figures?), over 22,000 ill and not at work, over 2,000 needing hospitalization, over 400 dead if this blooms into full pandemic like 1918?

Jeeze, and I was chastised for being tempted to stay on island during hurricane Dean?! Well, I was already there, didn't want to leave, but leaving was deemed prudent in part so I wouldn't add to the burden during local crisis. I suppose some local operators would feel similarly today: "Come on down the water's fine" until the bloom starts to hit, then "Why the hell are you still here?" Fortunately I could find a flight out then; I showed up at Cancun airport with my reservation guaranteed and had to walk around an airport full of people who'd been there all night waiting in line. Also fortunately, the US did not have a 30% infection rate that may have grounded many of the crews that flew in for us.

American health officials have been studying the Mexican outbreak of course, learning all they can about what went bad there, ruling out wrong-headed theories - including a couple of my favs...

_ A second infection complicating the flu cases. A common danger in flu is that the patient is co-infected with pneumonia or other bacteria, which can lead to death. But lab tests of 33 Mexican patients, including seven who died, did not find that problem. (There goes your "they got antibiotics in Mexico" idea, altho that is a small study.)

_ Low-quality health care. CDC investigators have not seen any obvious problem. They have found capable doctors and well-equipped, high-quality hospitals, Dowell said. (Now I really thot that was part of it, but still - how many who needed hospitalization got it? And - what happens to ill tourists when hospitals are full of locasl?)

_ A medicine is compounding the problem. Investigators have looked into whether patients who got sick had taken some over-the-counter medicine or folk remedy that actually made things worse.

Such a problem has sometimes occurs in children recovering from flu who are given aspirin a severe illness called Reye's syndrome, which causes vomiting, lethargy and even seizures. But there's no evidence of something like that in Mexico, Dowell said.

_ Altitude or air pollution: Mexico City's altitude and its infamous air pollution have raised speculation that those factors may have made people more susceptible to the virus. But severe cases are being reported over much of Mexico, including coastal communities and places with cleaner air, making that theory unlikely. (Dang, I was counting on that one being important.)
So, they don't know why it's so much worse down there - just that it is. So much to learn, but the knowledge is being acquired quickly now.

I really hope it does not get this bad, but I can see litte reason to think it won't. I guess it'll partly/largly? depend on how many take heed to the "stay home" suggestions and how many accept "come on down the water's fine" and fly into harm's way...?

Back at home, what would a 30% infection rate, 3% hospitalization, 0.6% of population death rate do to your city?

[jfcl01]

Regarding the government's temporary suspension of governmental and private business activities...does that mean divers could show up next week only to find hotels and dive ops not running?

[TSandM]

On the other hand, I took a doctor's advice once and bought Cipro when I went to Honduras a few years ago. Sure enough, on the flight home I started getting sick to my stomach, so I took the Cipro for the next few days, and I honestly don't think it helped and perhaps made it worse. Given that experience I'm not convinced drugs are all that helpful(within reason of course).

The problem is shotgunning antibiotics at an illness whose causative agent you don't know. Some intestinal disorders are bacterial, and will respond to Cipro. The typical traveler's diarrhea from Mexico is a non-toxigenic E. coli, and responds well, as do several other common bacterial pathogens. But some outbreaks of vomiting and diarrhea are purely viral -- for example, the ones on the cruise ships -- and antibiotics not only don't help with that kind of illness, but since diarrhea is a side effect of some antibiotics, may actually make things worse.

In the current situation, someone traveling to Mexico City who develops the abrupt onset of fever, headache, muscle and bone aches, and cough, probably would have enough information at that point to make starting Tamiflu appropriate. Tamiflu is also given as prophylaxis for health care workers in epidemic situations, and for family members of influenza patients who are at high risk of complications, should they become ill (patients with severe asthma, for example). At present, I do not believe there is enough evidence to warrant routine prophylaxis of people traveling to Cozumel or the Riviera Maya. I have a trip scheduled in June, and if the flu is still prevalent in Mexico, I will take Tamiflu with me, but I probably won't use it as a prophylactic agent. I would guess I would still be at much higher risk of losing time on my trip from a GI problem than from the flu.

[lamont]

Now that's beautiful.... I actually had tears in my eyes from the laugh I got. :rofl3: -Ignorance is a many splendored thing-

I have a tripped planned to Cozumel for May 18th-27th, so I hope this thing will either be in full swing or fizzled out by then, so my decision will be clear.

BTW I thought the name of the antiviral drug was tamiflu, with an m? Also, (if I were to acquire some) I believe this is to be taken after symptoms occur, as it does not function as a vaccine, but only minimizes symptoms and speeds recovery. On the other hand, I took a doctor's advice once and bought Cipro when I went to Honduras a few years ago. Sure enough, on the flight home I started getting sick to my stomach, so I took the Cipro for the next few days, and I honestly don't think it helped and perhaps made it worse. Given that experience I'm not convinced drugs are all that helpful(within reason of course).

Cipro is an antibiotic. How do you know you didn't get viral gastroenteritis rather than a bacteriological infection from food? And how do you know it didn't help? Maybe without the Cipro you would have wound up in the hospital...

Unless you know why you got sick, and if Cipro is a treatment for that problem and what kind of severity of illness you could have expected to get, you have no idea how to judge the efficacy of the Cipro..

And extrapolating that experience to the efficacy of Tamiflu against this influenza is more than a huge stretch...

[okiraku_diver]

[CENTER][IMG]

The 6-7% mortality rate was a misunderstanding as that would have been three times as deadly as the 1918 strain. A pandemic like in 1918 would suggest 30% infection rate, 3% hospitalization, 2% of the infected or 0.6% of population death rate is the more expected...

just information(not offence)

Mexico orders economic shutdown; pandemic imminent | U.S. | Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE53N22820090430?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=10452)

Masato Tashiro, head of the influenza virus research center at Japan's National Institute of Infectious Disease and a member of the WHO emergency committee, told Japan's Nikkei newspaper it appeared the H1N1 strain was far less dangerous than avian flu.

"The virus is relatively weak and about the same as regular influenza viruses passed on via human-to-human contact. I don't believe it will become virulent," he was quoted as saying.

"The threat to health from the avian influenza and its fatality rate is much greater than the new flu," he said.

"I am very worried that we will use up the stockpile of anti-flu medicine and be unarmed before we need to fight against the avian influenza. The greatest threat to mankind remains the H5N1 avian influenza."

[lamont]

Looks like there's 6 suspect cases in Washington State now and 3 of those in King County around Seattle... 6 people out of about 2,000,000 in King County... Only an 11 year old kid had to get hospitalized... So far this sounds more like 1889 or 1957 than 1918...

[CozumelAntonio]

So, what is going on in Cozumel today? Are hotels and restaurants opened? Are any cruise ships in town? Do dive boats operate as usual?

There are quite a few vacationers in Cozumel right now, going about their daily vacations tanning on the beaches, shopping, going around the island in rental cars and (please don't do it!!) mopeds, (I'll post a video on YouTube if anyone doubts this). Thursday morning at Scuba Du we have 17 divers going out in 2 boats, 6 of them to Punta Sur. Cruise lines decided a couple days ago to cover their corporate assets based on the CDC travel alert, and are not stopping a any Mexican port for a week (or more?) and thus some "cruise-stores" are not open. There is beautiful weather and gorgeous water, restaurants, clubs & shops are all open, most life in Cozumel is going on as usual, though it is getting quieter than normal, quiet like it was many years ago, without the rushing guided hoards on tour in a zillion vehicles of all types, and the army of 3000 cab drivers everywhere taking the cruisers to and fro. And you know something? it's kind of nice....

Not the part about the serious loss of business of course, specially because there is still, and this is the part not being mentioned enough: no flu, of any kind, in Cozumel Island NONE! and what has happened is the result of several very grave mistakes on the part of the exceptionally inept & corrupt Mexican Federal Government Officials, starting at the very top.

It's a shame that such a beautiful country with so many wonderful people and inmense resources, has been run for decades by unscrupulous thieving bastards and is at their mercy and at the mercy of the dark interests they serve, they have no right to do this to an entire country, as if the billions they steal every year weren't enough.

From informed sources the prediction is that this "media-fueled-event" will start dying down in a couple weeks, and things will return to normal. Already the "confirmed" deaths in Mexico by the WHO (World Health Organization) has been lowered to 7, and 160 suspected cases, these are already being treated and will recover, these numbers are very low compared to the annual 36,000 deaths every year in the US from the regular flu season. I hope these predictions are right, but even though there will probably never be ONE SINGLE CASE of swine flu in Cozumel, the damage is done...

:depressed:

[pilot fish]

Very informative and interesting post, Cozumel Antonio. Thank you. Since the Gov of Mexico is as corrupt as you have indicated, [ I did not know it was THAT bad? ] is it possible that there have been a case or two, or three, in Coz but the corrupt Gov is told to report it as something else so as not to harm the Coz toursit industry, of which Coz is 100% dependent on? I saw one post here in this thread where they said that the Gov told health officals in Mexico City to report some deaths there as cardiac arrest ranther than flu? That is worrisome, if true.

My feeling is, don't go if you are PREGNANT, bringing YOUNG children, or OLDER adults. If you are a healthy person, over 21, I think it might be worth the risk, but take precautions. As in diving, HAVE FUN BUT BE SAFE.




There are quite a few vacationers in Cozumel right now, going about their daily vacations tanning on the beaches, shopping, going around the island in rental cars and (please don't do it!!) mopeds, (I'll post a video on YouTube if anyone doubts this). Thursday morning at Scuba Du we have 17 divers going out in 2 boats, 6 of them to Punta Sur. Cruise lines decided a couple days ago to cover their corporate assets based on the CDC travel alert, and are not stopping a any Mexican port for a week (or more?) and thus some "cruise-stores" are not open. There is beautiful weather and gorgeous water, restaurants, clubs & shops are all open, most life in Cozumel is going on as usual, though it is getting quieter than normal, quiet like it was many years ago, without the rushing guided hoards on tour in a zillion vehicles of all types, and the army of 3000 cab drivers everywhere taking the cruisers to and fro. And you know something? it's kind of nice....

Not the part about the serious loss of business of course, specially because there is still, and this is the part not being mentioned enough: no flu, of any kind, in Cozumel Island NONE! and what has happened is the result of several very grave mistakes on the part of the exceptionally inept & corrupt Mexican Federal Government Officials, starting at the very top.

It's a shame that such a beautiful country with so many wonderful people and inmense resources, has been run for decades by unscrupulous thieving bastards and is at their mercy and at the mercy of the dark interests they serve, they have no right to do this to an entire country, as if the billions they steal every year weren't enough.

From informed sources the prediction is that this "media-fueled-event" will start dying down in a couple weeks, and things will return to normal. Already the "confirmed" deaths in Mexico by the WHO (World Health Organization) has been lowered to 7, and 160 suspected cases, these are already being treated and will recover, these numbers are very low compared to the annual 36,000 deaths every year in the US from the regular flu season. I hope these predictions are right, but even though there will probably never be ONE SINGLE CASE of swine flu in Cozumel, the damage is done...

:depressed:

[AquaExplorer]

I haven't cancelled my trip in June either and my brother just booked a trip in May. My perspective would change if we have loads of positive cases turning up at home or in Coz as my travel dates approach.

Well I AM canceling my June trip!


Though not due to the flu. We are closing on a house today we unexpectedly decided to buy in the last three weeks. So no mo' money for the time being with two house payments. :(

However the house we bought is one we really wanted to buy (it has been for sale for over three years) so we are happy! :D

[jpomerantz]

I actually am thinking of taking a trip to CZM in July - rates will be good now and the virus should burn out by then anyway - the normal influenza infectious pattern.

[Christi]

is it possible that there have been a case or two, or three, in Coz but the corrupt Gov is told to report it as something else so as not to harm the Coz toursit industry, of which Coz is 100% dependent on?

I suppose that's POSSIBLE...but I know that is not the case. I have spoken to a highly respected physician (he works at all three hospitals) on the island and he confirmed that we have NO CASES in Cozumel, and no suspect cases as of yesterday afternoon.

With the deaths at only 7 now and the majority of people contracting this flu recovering by letting it run it's course, rest, hydration, etc, this is shaping up to be no worse than the normal flu virus we all know. No one wants to get the flu, but at least we are discovering that those with healthy immune systems can fight it and recover through normal means.

This is encouraging news!

[pilot fish]

Yes, anything is possible but I think what you said is probably true - no cases on Coz, especailly since you have confirmed that with the doc you spoke to. I think he would know for sure. The bad news is, it is now human to human transmission. The good news is, as you've indicated, and reports have verified, it is a weaker strain. Thank God for that. My guess is this will subside in another week. It has been a great test, and practice, for World Gov to combat the next REAL bad pandemic. Let us hope they all have learned something valubale from this.





I suppose that's POSSIBLE...but I know that is not the case. I have spoken to a highly respected physician (he works at all three hospitals) on the island and he confirmed that we have NO CASES in Cozumel, and no suspect cases as of yesterday afternoon.

With the deaths at only 7 now and the majority of people contracting this flu recovering by letting it run it's course, rest, hydration, etc, this is shaping up to be no worse than the normal flu virus we all know. No one wants to get the flu, but at least we are discovering that those with healthy immune systems can fight it and recover through normal means.

This is encouraging news!

[CozumelAntonio]

is it possible that there have been a case or two, or three, in Coz but the corrupt Gov is told to report it as something else so as not to harm the Coz toursit industry, of which Coz is 100% dependent on?

I don't believe the county government, nor the state government, would conceal the fact from the local population here, and if there were any cases they would be screaming it from every radio station and newspaper, Cozumel is a tight knit community and it's not easy to cover up something like this, word gets out. When I spoke of the grievous corruption in the Mexican Government, I was speaking about the federal government in Mexico City.

I do believe that the local authorities could have done alot more to minimize the effects on the local economy, if I were for example Governor, since the hype began I would have spent some serious government funds to bring a team of experts from the CDC or WHO or any internationally recognized association, and I would have them check all the hospitals case by case, making them analize any possible person with any kind of symptoms, and go to all the schools to get samples, until they could publically certify that they found no cases of it, and then hold a major press conference and launch a media campaign directed at travel agencies, wholesale charters, airlines, cruise lines and the general public with the certifed results.

I believe time will show that there were never any cases of the swine flu in Cozumel, yet the damages to the local economy are as bad as if there were.

[DandyDon]

Cozumel is going on as usual, though it is getting quieter than normal, quiet like it was many years ago, without the rushing guided hoards on tour in a zillion vehicles of all types, and the army of 3000 cab drivers everywhere taking the cruisers to and fro. And you know something? it's kind of nice....
I like that part! Too bad they can't make it permanent.

[deeper thoughts]

On the today show Biden told the public that he has advised his family to not ride the trains.
This will not help travel to Cozumel etc

[fireflock]

From a travelers perspective, the fact that there isn't any swine flu on Coz isn't as important as the fact that you have to use planes, buses, and automobiles to get there.

Put me down magically in the middle of Coz and I would feel like I could work to control my own exposure. Put me in a tin can with recirculated air (an airplane) and I'm not as fond of my chances.

I absolutely hope (and things are looking this way) that this whole thing turns out to be much ado about nothing. It must be supremely frustrating to people involved in the travel industry anywhere. Still, it's hard to deny that airports and airplanes are pretty good ways to expose yourself to germs of any kind from all over the world.

Flame suit on :)

[UnderwaterOffice]

With the deaths at only 7 now and the majority of people contracting this flu recovering by letting it run it's course, rest, hydration, etc, this is shaping up to be no worse than the normal flu virus we all know.

The quote above bears repeating.

To all of the locals with businesses to run; I sincerely apologize for any loss in revenue due to this thing. I wish I could continue my trip, eat with you, dive with you, get drunk with you and pee in your wetsuits, but alas I have to cancel though not for fear of catching N1H1.

[don Francisco]

My wife is still in Coz. enjoying the quiet and hasn't heard even rumors of any flu down there. I was there last week and had a great time, though I caught a cold, or (maybe the flu, who knows). In any case I had symptoms the morning after arriving so it's far more likely I caught it here in New York, or as is so typical, on the flight, rather than in Coz. Anyway, I treated it as I always do, with 4,000mg vitamin C daily, and it ran it's usual 4 day course.

The problem is that there's a media frenzy, coupled with maybe some legitimate WHO concern about spread of a particular flu virus strain. This means that everybody with the least sniffle or 100 degree fever is panicing and running to the doctor with possible "swine" flu.

Here in NY we have a much publicized case of 20 students returning from Cancun with "swine" flu, which rapidly mushroomed to almost the entire student body of that class. The unreported facts of the story include that there hasn't been a single documented case anywhere in the Yucatan, and that none of these students are gravely ill. It's far more likely that, if they contracted the flu, they did so not while in Cancun, but during the travel, where they mixed with large numbers of people.

The simple fact is that you're far more likely to catch the flu (any flu) in a large American city, than on an insulated island such as Cozumel. For the Cozumelenos, a fringe benefit of all this media BS, and reduced tourism, is that they're now far less likely to be exposed to the flu brought onto the island by an American tourist.

If I had the time, I'd fly back to Coz now without any worry, but if I were particulalry worried about the flu, I'd go there immediately, and stay there until this passed.

[lamont]

but even though there will probably never be ONE SINGLE CASE of swine flu in Cozumel, the damage is done...


Look, will you people on the island of Cozumel who make a living from tourists stop making statements which are *obviously* flagrantly biased and designed to downplay this issue as much as possible and are simply medically inaccurate?

This flu virus *will* travel the globe and in the next year or two 50% of us are probably going to get it or its descendants. Cozumel will get it, or some antigenically shifted variant of it. This thing is here to stay and the echoes of it will be with us for decades, just like we can trace the lineage of the common influenza viruses that are in the yearly vaccines back to viruses that did a similar antigenic jump to create novel flu viruses and created pandemics.

What you can say is that it looks like this is going to turn into a more typical outbreak of pandemic flu that puts children and the elderly at risk, and produces bad flu symptoms in adults. Since most people who go to Cozumel and go diving probably don't drag kids along it *is* true that its starting to look silly about those people going into a panic and canceling vacations. However, statements like 'Cozumel will never get a single case of it' clearly don't have a lot of medical knowledge behind them and are clearly financially motivated.

And sorry if it hurts your finances, but your customers with kids should not be traveling right now. That is actually a perfectly sensible thing to freak out about. Of the 6 cases that we have locally right now, one is an 11 year old kid that required hospitalization. The one fatality in the US so far was the 23-month old child in Houston. I'm a whole lot less concerned about myself right now, but I'm still very concerned about my young nieces and nephews. And you don't want the island of Cozumel overwhelmed with a bunch of sick young kids overloading the Island's hospital capacity for number of respirators.

This may not be a repeat of the 1918 flu, but stop taking the thing so lightly.

[lamont]

I suppose that's POSSIBLE...but I know that is not the case. I have spoken to a highly respected physician (he works at all three hospitals) on the island and he confirmed that we have NO CASES in Cozumel, and no suspect cases as of yesterday afternoon.

With the deaths at only 7 now

All of a sudden you trust the Mexican government now that their numbers are what you want to hear?



and the majority of people contracting this flu recovering by letting it run it's course, rest, hydration, etc, this is shaping up to be no worse than the normal flu virus we all know.


Based on the number of children requiring hospitalization or dying and the severity of the symptoms in adult patients this is false.



No one wants to get the flu, but at least we are discovering that those with healthy immune systems can fight it and recover through normal means.


Okay that seems to be entirely true.



This is encouraging news!

[ggunn]

On the today show Biden told the public that he has advised his family to not ride the trains.


I really like Joe, but I think that this was an irresponsible thing for him to say. For him to privately think that is one thing, but to speak those words over the media from his position as the VP of the US is another.

[firstdive2005]

Look, will you people on the island of Cozumel who make a living from tourists stop making statements which are *obviously* flagrantly biased and designed to downplay this issue as much as possible and are simply medically inaccurate?

This flu virus *will* travel the globe and in the next year or two 50% of us are probably going to get it or its descendants. Cozumel will get it, or some antigenically shifted variant of it. This thing is here to stay and the echoes of it will be with us for decades, just like we can trace the lineage of the common influenza viruses that are in the yearly vaccines back to viruses that did a similar antigenic jump to create novel flu viruses and created pandemics.

What you can say is that it looks like this is going to turn into a more typical outbreak of pandemic flu that puts children and the elderly at risk, and produces bad flu symptoms in adults. Since most people who go to Cozumel and go diving probably don't drag kids along it *is* true that its starting to look silly about those people going into a panic and canceling vacations. However, statements like 'Cozumel will never get a single case of it' clearly don't have a lot of medical knowledge behind them and are clearly financially motivated.

And sorry if it hurts your finances, but your customers with kids should not be traveling right now. That is actually a perfectly sensible thing to freak out about. Of the 6 cases that we have locally right now, one is an 11 year old kid that required hospitalization. The one fatality in the US so far was the 23-month old child in Houston. I'm a whole lot less concerned about myself right now, but I'm still very concerned about my young nieces and nephews. And you don't want the island of Cozumel overwhelmed with a bunch of sick young kids overloading the Island's hospital capacity for number of respirators.

This may not be a repeat of the 1918 flu, but stop taking the thing so lightly.

I'm definately not going to sound as smart as you. I am in no way connected to the medical profesions.
Every single time I have flown somewhere to dive,(quite a few) I sit on the plane wondering if I will catch a bug. Everytime I land at an exotic place I see someone that has contracted sometype of bug that they have to try and take medication so they are able to dive. (By the way I strongly think one shouldnt do that). Usually these people are the ones that I see on the second week of their vacation. I hate wondering if I am the one that will be bugged up by my second week. Also I quit shaking hands a couple weeks before diving and am very cautious about my company(are they sick etc?) So I'm of the opinion this is FREAKING HOGWASH!!!!!!
OPEN UP THE FREAKING BORDERS YOU MORONS!!!!!!!!

[lamont]

Where is this news that Mexico only has 7 confirmed deaths coming from? I can't find it from any US news sources on google, and most every news case is still talking about >150 deaths.

This is actually an informative article on the puzzle of why the cases in Mexico seem to be so lethal, compared to the fatality rate in other countries:

The Associated Press: Scientists struggle to understand swine flu virus (http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5j9PJJvaROOPZdpFqydJYDQ4jxXRAD97SCISO0)

Leading hypothesis seems to be that a lot more people were infected with the virus than the Mexican authorities know about -- but the lack of samples positive for this H1N1 strain in random sampling prior to the outbreak doesn't entirely back that theory up...

[firstdive2005]

I just got off the phone with my doctor. I told him I was on Coz mid March. I told him I flew via Cancun. I just told him my symtoms of this cold/flu I am almost over and that my wife has now taken over. The advise was are you having difficulty breathing. No. Then stay in bed. Youve got the flu.

So my question is could I have incubated this from the flight mid March to one week ago? I'm not worried about this at all. Just curious. gotta go my nose is dripping.....

[UnderwaterOffice]

Where is this news that Mexico only has 7 confirmed deaths coming from? I can't find it from any US news sources on google, and most every news case is still talking about >150 deaths.


Hence the histeria. It is not "News" it is factual information coming from the WHO. Listen to yesterday's press briefing. They explain the discrepancy of numbers and counts. WHO (Dr Fukuda) explains how they are getting their numbers from the Governments of the pertinent countries/states. They are listing only cases that have been laboratory confirmed, while they are dismissing 100's.

WHO | Swine influenza virtual press briefings (http://www.who.int/mediacentre/multimedia/swineflupressbriefings/en/index.html)

What is lacking in these stats, is how many they have dismissed as being the standard flu, which statistically can kill thousands a day and has always had a similar likeliness to mutate.

[UnderwaterOffice]

Wall Street Journal:
I wonder if you could help us understand a little bit better the different numbers of deaths being reported from Mexico. I mean, clearly WHO is reporting only deaths that have been Laboratory-confirmed by CDC or another lab. I am wondering if you know what testing capabilities the Mexicans can have right now, and so when they are saying they have 150 deaths or whatever numbers they are using, what level of testing and confidence do they have.

Dr Fukuda:
In terms of the different numbers of deaths, I think that one of the features that is simply to follow investigations especially when you have big outbreaks occurring, is that the numbers can be very confusing and you can have cases of disease reported, cases of deaths reported, and then some of them might be laboratory-confirmed deaths, and often times these are deaths which are epidemiologically suspicious but not laboratoryconfirmed. I cannot address directly why do the numbers vary a little bit, right now, but I do know how these outbreaks unfold and how difficult and overwhelming it is to get the numbers quite straight. It is very common to have the numbers vary somewhat in the beginning of these large outbreaks. At this point, I cannot address the specifics, but that is generally, what is true with the outbreaks.


Dr Fukuda: In Mexico there are 26 cases with 7 deaths, this is the same as before.


This is all quoted from yesterday's briefing 04/29.
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/swineflu_presstranscript_2009_04_29.pdf

This did also just release the Audio for today's briefing, but no transcript yet.
WHO | Swine influenza virtual press briefings (http://www.who.int/mediacentre/multimedia/swineflupressbriefings/en/index.html)

[AquaExplorer]

I really like Joe, but I think that this was an irresponsible thing for him to say. For him to privately think that is one thing, but to speak those words over the media from his position as the VP of the US is another.

Why though? Even in Mexico the idea is to limit ones exposure by NOT congregating in large masses. Thus it is perfectly sensible to say "I would limit my exposure to small areas crammed with masses of humanity for the near-term".

[Fin59]

[QUOTE=lamont;4389407]All of a sudden you trust the Mexican government now that their numbers are what you want to hear?



She said she spoke with one of the doctors on the island, not the government.

Things like this, the information they "allow" us to hear, remind me of the bumper sticker I saw that said "I'm from the government and I'm here to help." Yikes!

[Fin59]

I just got off the phone with my doctor. I told him I was on Coz mid March. I told him I flew via Cancun. I just told him my symtoms of this cold/flu I am almost over and that my wife has now taken over. The advise was are you having difficulty breathing. No. Then stay in bed. Youve got the flu.

So my question is could I have incubated this from the flight mid March to one week ago? I'm not worried about this at all. Just curious. gotta go my nose is dripping.....


We just need Scotty to beam us all to Cozumel :D

[don Francisco]

Once again the American "it's all about us" media has it exactly backwards. Regardless of the nature of the flu outbreak, and how virulent this particular strain might be, the plain simple fact is that the greatest risk isn't to Americans who travel to Cozumel or the Yucatan.

The greatest risk is to the folks in Cozumel and other isolated outposts which are currently free of the virus, but might have it imported in the chest of an inbound tourist. While Mexico City might be ground zero, the fact is that there isn't a ton of intra-Mexico travel, so the vector for transmission won't be a Mexican, but much more likely a highly mobile American, who brings it to or from his home town.

If the worst should happen, and this strain is most dangerous, and does go global, Cozumel, by virtue of being an uncongested, fairly remote island might be one of the safest places on earth.

My fear isn't going to Cozumel, but that when I'm ready to go they might lock the doors to protect themselves, and I'll find myself on the outside looking in.

[1KWIK_69]

Wow, I was having a very nice little vacation in my head here at work until I got to the following paragraph and suddenly realized you were talking about the U.S.
:lol:



It's a shame that such a beautiful country with so many wonderful people and inmense resources, has been run for decades by unscrupulous thieving bastards and is at their mercy and at the mercy of the dark interests they serve, they have no right to do this to an entire country, as if the billions they steal every year weren't enough.

[DandyDon]

<smirk> :no:

I just got off the phone with my doctor. I told him I was on Coz mid March. I told him I flew via Cancun. I just told him my symtoms of this cold/flu I am almost over and that my wife has now taken over. The advise was are you having difficulty breathing. No. Then stay in bed. Youve got the flu.

So my question is could I have incubated this from the flight mid March to one week ago? I'm not worried about this at all. Just curious. gotta go my nose is dripping.....
The standard incubation period for flu is generally considered 1 to 4/7 days. Sorry, you have a local strain I think; no news interviews forthcoming. March is often a big month for flu, whether it's the new strain or one of the old ones...

Flu activity typically does not reach its peak in the U.S. until January or February. Getting the flu vaccine soon after it becomes available each year is always a good idea, and the protection you get from vaccination will last throughout the flu season. However, flu activity can occur as late as May so getting a vaccine later in the season, including in December, January or even later, and even if flu activity has already started in your area, can still offer protection in most years.
Of course, people die from most strains so it's good to take them all seriously, the old ones we know & understand, and maybe the new & mystifying ones too...
http://i41.tinypic.com/2jcvv44.jpg

[1KWIK_69]

On the today show Biden told the public that he has advised his family to not ride the trains.
This will not help travel to Cozumel etc

Yeah but that's because he was on a train that was shot at and forced to land over in Afganastan!
:lol: :lol: :lol:

[deeper thoughts]

Yeah but that's because he was on a train that was shot at and forced to land over in Afganastan!
:lol: :lol: :lol:

The "retractions and clarifications" have already started by the WH.
The airline and travel industries have said he is a fear mongerer while others in the administration are saying dont panic.

I guess common sense prevails and definitely take what its being said and then resaid with a grain of salt

[jpomerantz]

Before you expouse medical knowledge please get it right. Each year over 30,000 die from "usual" influenza.

The World Health Organization said confirmed swine flu cases rose to 257 worldwide Thursday and announced it will would stop using the term "swine flu" to avoid confusion over the danger posed by pigs. On Wednesday, Egypt began slaughtering its roughly 300,000 pigs as precaution, even though experts said swine flu is not spread by eating pork

The global body said the number of confirmed cases in Mexico rose to 97 from 26, with seven deaths. The WHO confirmed tally from the United States now stands at 109, with one death.

Other confirmed cases include 19 in Canada, 13 in Spain, eight in Britain, three each in Germany and New Zealand, two in Israel and one each in Austria, Switzerland and the Netherlands.

There are small death #s so far, and yes they will rise but the panic out there is based on small #s so far. Could this grow - absolutely, however the natural course of ths virus is self limited (risk as usual for those at high risk) and so far has not demonstrated to be "super virulent". The majority of cases are index cases (having brought it from the area in Mexico) or primary contacts, not secondary or tertiary contacts.

And yes, I play a doctor in real life.


Where is this news that Mexico only has 7 confirmed deaths coming from? I can't find it from any US news sources on google, and most every news case is still talking about >150 deaths.

This is actually an informative article on the puzzle of why the cases in Mexico seem to be so lethal, compared to the fatality rate in other countries:

The Associated Press: Scientists struggle to understand swine flu virus (http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5j9PJJvaROOPZdpFqydJYDQ4jxXRAD97SCISO0)

Leading hypothesis seems to be that a lot more people were infected with the virus than the Mexican authorities know about -- but the lack of samples positive for this H1N1 strain in random sampling prior to the outbreak doesn't entirely back that theory up...

[DandyDon]

I don't understand why anyone other those with selfish interests in travel would object to what the VP said, since it's congruent with CDC warnings. Old flu, new flu for which no one has immunities, you don't want either - and since the new one still has a lot of mysteries, is very contagious and again - no one has immunities, it's only prudent to avoid crowded places. You cowboys want to fly to Coz or Cancun - go, but don't expect any rational person to believe the action comes with only reasonable risks. It's a whole new game, folks. I hope an effective and safe vaccine can be produced before the big season.

And for Mexico only admitting 7 deaths, riiiiiiiightttt....!

Let me know when a trusted source says that the other 150 dead have been tested and ruled out - key requirement: trusted source!

A portrait is emerging of a slow and confused response by Mexico to the gathering swine flu epidemic. And that could mean the world is flying blind into a global health storm.

Despite an annual budget of more than $5 billion, Mexico's health secretary said Monday that his agency hasn't had the resources to visit the families of the dead. That means doctors haven't begun treatment for the population most exposed to swine flu, and most apt to spread it.

It also means medical sleuths don't know how the victims were infected — key to understanding how the epidemic began and how it can be contained.

Foreign health officials were hesitant Monday to speak critically about Mexico's response, saying they want to wait until more details emerge before passing judgment. But already, Mexicans were questioning the government's image of a country that has the crisis under control.

"Nobody believes the government anymore," said Edgar Rocha, a 28-year-old office messenger. He said the lack of information is sowing distrust: "You haven't seen a single interview with the sick!"

The political consequences could be serious. China was heavily criticized during the outbreak of SARS for failing to release details about the disease, feeding rumors and fear. And Mexico's failed response to a catastrophic 1985 earthquake is largely credited with the demise of the party that had ruled the country since the 1920s.

"That is foremost in the minds of Mexican policymakers now," said George Grayson at the College of William & Mary in Virginia. "They're thinking, 'We don't want another '85.'"

Indeed, Health Secretary Jose Angel Cordova was defensive at a news conference Monday as he was peppered with questions about why Mexico took so long to identify the outbreak, attempt to contain its spread and provide information.

"We never had this kind of epidemic in the world," he said. "This is the first time we have this kind of virus."

It remained unclear where and how the epidemic began, how it has spread, who it has killed or how fast it is growing. And the government has yet to take some basic steps critical to containing any outbreak, such as quick treatment of people who had contact with the victims.

[1KWIK_69]

Once again the American "it's all about us" media has it exactly backwards. Regardless of the nature of the flu outbreak, and how virulent this particular strain might be, the plain simple fact is that the greatest risk isn't to Americans who travel to Cozumel or the Yucatan.

The greatest risk is to the folks in Cozumel and other isolated outposts which are currently free of the virus, but might have it imported in the chest of an inbound tourist. While Mexico City might be ground zero, the fact is that there isn't a ton of intra-Mexico travel, so the vector for transmission won't be a Mexican, but much more likely a highly mobile American, who brings it to or from his home town.

If the worst should happen, and this strain is most dangerous, and does go global, Cozumel, by virtue of being an uncongested, fairly remote island might be one of the safest places on earth.

My fear isn't going to Cozumel, but that when I'm ready to go they might lock the doors to protect themselves, and I'll find myself on the outside looking in.

You're absolutely correct!

On the flip side, I might not be that upset if I got to Cozumel and suddenly the US government decides to close the borders. I'd be like, "Damn, I guess I'll just have to stay a while longer and do some more diving!" Work couldn't fire me for taking an extended vacation under those circumstances. :)

[don Francisco]

On the flip side, I might not be that upset if I got to Cozumel and suddenly the US government decides to close the borders. I'd be like, "Damn, I guess I'll just have to stay a while longer and do some more diving!" :)

Me too!, Right now, I just got back and can't justify going, but if there's the least hint that this is as bad as the most pessimistic scenarios, you can bet I'll be on the next flight to Cozumel, hoping to be locked in, rather than out when they start closing borders.

[1KWIK_69]

Before you expouse medical knowledge please get it right. Each year over 30,000 die from "usual" influenza.

The global body said the number of confirmed cases in Mexico rose to 97 from 26, with seven deaths. The WHO confirmed tally from the United States now stands at 109, with one death.

And yes, I play a doctor in real life.
[FONT=Tms Rmn]


Thank You! At last some input from an actual doctor! I would have said more but I'm just a practicing amature gynecologist. :)

The only info I disagree with is what everyone else keeps saying too about there being one U.S. death. I'm sorry for the family's loss, but that child was from Mexico City. He got sick in Mexico City, he traveled while sick from Mexico City to Matamoros with his family. They crossed the border with their sick child and took him to an American hospital in Brownsville, which then transfered him to a hospital in Houston. He should not count as an American death. It didn't spread to Houston and kill anyone.

[dnhill]

The latest from Mexico is reporting that there are 99 reported cases today with 8 deaths. This being an 8% mortality rate is why folks are so concerned. Yes, there are 30,000 deaths from the "usual" influenza, but at a much lower mortality rate. Mexico has a good health care system, and the higher death rate in Mexico vs. the US is not understood as yet. I hope this gets contained and we can remember it is as the "great flu scare of 2009."

dnhill

[1KWIK_69]

The latest from Mexico is reporting that there are 99 reported cases today with 8 deaths. This being an 8% mortality rate is why folks are so concerned. Yes, there are 30,000 deaths from the "usual" influenza, but at a much lower mortality rate. Mexico has a good health care system, and the higher death rate in Mexico vs. the US is not understood as yet. I hope this gets contained and we can remember it is as the "great flu scare of 2009."

dnhill

Mexico's official numbers are going to be way off for a while because given the number of mild cases in the U.S. it might be that a lot of people got the sniffles in Mexico and are not being counted in the overall number of cases because they didn't go to the doctor. The mortality rate is not likely to be anywhere close to 8% if they ever get the real numbers.

One more thing. i just read this about possible reasons it might not be killing Americans. It's from someone that's reported to be one of the top Flu experts in America.

"A: Dr. Gross: In the flu vaccine for more than the past 30 years weÃ×e had an H1N1 strain in the standard flu vaccine that everyone gets at least since 1976 when we had the last swine flu scare. So the theory goes that if youÃ×e had a vaccine that has a N1 in it... when you encounter a slightly different H1 (which is what the swine flu is) that you will be protected from severe illness and death, but not from getting a cold or a bad cold from that flu strain.

The other thing is we havenÃÕ seen reports of a lot of older people getting H1N1 influenza A so they must certainly be immune. An educated guess here would be that these older people may not be coming down with this new strain because most of them particularly if they got the standard vaccine would have some degree of immunity."

[don Francisco]

The latest from Mexico is reporting that there are 99 reported cases today with 8 deaths. This being an 8% mortality rate is why folks are so concerned....

One possible reason for the higher death rate is that this is an emerging situation.

Early on in any new disease outbreak there's a tendancy to assume that it's the same old stuff that's been out there and underestimate the severity and undertreat it. Also the number of reported cases tend to be understated, since many of the early survived cases simply weren't counted. The combination of higher than normal numerators, across an understated denominator makes for high statistical death rates. It's also important to remember that with a small total base, small errors get magniifed.

Later on with increased awareness, treatments tend to be sooner and more aggressive, reducing the actual deaths, and the reporting becomes more thorough increasing the base of reported cases. The two combine causing a significant drop in the statistical rate, regardless of the actual number of deaths.

I'd expect that the same will happen with this particular outbreak, and as the base broadens the reported mortality rates will drop.

The problem with mortality statistics, especially in an emerging situation, is that they create highly distorted pictures or what's really happening, for example creating the illusion of a deadly virus that magically morphed into something milder. Afterwards with 20/20 hindsight based on more accurate it's easy to say people over or under reacted.

[CozumelAntonio]

Wow, I was having a very nice little vacation in my head here at work until I got to the following paragraph and suddenly realized you were talking about the U.S.
:lol:

I was reffering to MY counrty, Mexico.

[1KWIK_69]

I was reffering to MY counrty, Mexico.

You could have fooled me! :)

[1KWIK_69]

Speaking of Biden gaffs, I'm thinking this will be the headline on lots of news stories for the next 3 years and 265 days!
:lol:

White House apologizes for undue alarm over Biden comments

Posted: 05:57 PM ET

From CNN Ticker Producer Alexander Mooney


Gibbs clarified Biden's comments Thursday.
(CNN) The White House apologized Thursday "if anybody was unduly alarmed" by Vice President Joe Biden's comments that seemed to suggest Americans should avoid air travel or confined spaces of any kind.

"What the vice president meant to say was the same thing that many members have said in the last few days," White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said. "And that is, if you feel sick, are exhibiting flu-like symptoms?that you should take precautions, that you should limit your travel."

In an appearance on NBC's Today Show earlier Thursday, Biden said he had urged his family not to go "anywhere in confined places now."

"I would not be, at this point, if they had another way of transportation, (be) suggesting they ride the subway. So from my perspective, what it relates to is mitigation. If you're out in the middle of a field and someone sneezes, that's one thing, if you're in a closed aircraft or closed container or closed car or closed classroom it's a different thing," he said.

[DandyDon]

Biden makes sense to me...


http://i39.tinypic.com/vep54j.jpg

[Bandmom]

:confused: OK.....I am SO confused. Granted, I tend to try not to respond to ANY information from the media that is not confirmed but I am honestly lost. All stats outside of Mexico indicate that this flu is spreading but with no deaths (other than the poor little toodler who came to visit family from Mexico). The WHO's update for today @ 5:00 PM states:

"The United States Government has reported 109 laboratory confirmed human cases, including one death. Mexico has reported 97 confirmed human cases of infection, including seven deaths."

"The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths - Austria (1), Canada (19), Germany (3), Israel (2), Netherlands (1), New Zealand (3), Spain (13), Switzerland (1) and the United Kingdom (8)."

Notice that the numbers from Mexico don't indicate that they are "lab confirmed" so what does that mean??

The WHO site also still indicates the following:

"WHO advises no restriction of regular travel or closure of borders. It is considered prudent for people who are ill to delay international travel and for people developing symptoms following international travel to seek medical attention, in line with guidance from national authorities."

So is it just me or does this information not seem to match the panic that is going on? Am I missing something?
I promise I'm not being sarcastic; I'm honestly confused.....

[geokr]

The Mexican cases would have been confirmed in a lab as all the others were - an editorial omission I'm sure. Regarding the panic, the media does whip these things up to sell newspapers. I think reasonable sanitary precautions are advisable just as you would normally do and, most importantly, don't freak out about this like Vice President Biden did in public this morning.

[1KWIK_69]

The Mexican cases would have been confirmed in a lab as all the others were - an editorial omission I'm sure. Regarding the panic, the media does whip these things up to sell newspapers. I think reasonable sanitary precautions are advisable just as you would normally do and, most importantly, don't freak out about this like Vice President Biden did in public this morning.

Not to worry. Biden will stop freaking out because I heard Algore has started inventing a cure now that he figured out that the flu was caused by global warming.
:lol:

[geokr]

Not to worry. Biden will stop freaking out because I heard Algore has started inventing a cure now that he figured out that the flu was caused by global warming.
:lol:

And then get another Nobel Prize for his book "An Inconvenient Infection" :rofl3:

[Martha]

I actually am thinking of taking a trip to CZM in July - rates will be good now and the virus should burn out by then anyway - the normal influenza infectious pattern.

Hey Jay, we'll be in Cozumel July 2-9. Come join us!!!

[Christi]

Where is this news that Mexico only has 7 confirmed deaths coming from? I can't find it from any US news sources on google, and most every news case is still talking about >150 deaths.


My information is not from the MX government...it's from WHO, CDC, and local doctors who have no political or financial agendas.

Again...as MORE FACTS come out about this today, this flu strain is no more dangerous than the common flu as we know - it's just NEW. Yes, the travel itself is going to provide a higher risk of exposure than actually being on the island or anywhere in general. Following that logic, changing travel plans from Cozumel to Cayman for example doesn't make sense...you still have to get there by going through airports and on planes.

With all of that said, is everyone going to stop traveling because they are afraid of getting the flu?

[1KWIK_69]

My information is not from the MX government...it's from WHO, CDC, and local doctors who have no political or financial agendas.

Again...as MORE FACTS come out about this today, this flu strain is no more dangerous than the common flu as we know - it's just NEW. Yes, the travel itself is going to provide a higher risk of exposure than actually being on the island or anywhere in general. Following that logic, changing travel plans from Cozumel to Cayman for example doesn't make sense...you still have to get there by going through airports and on planes.

With all of that said, is everyone going to stop traveling because they are afraid of getting the flu?

Sounds like Biden will. Oh wait a minute, he has a private jet. Lol

Christi, we're with ya. If I'm worried about the plane ride, I'll wear a protective mask and use purell. This may turn into a bigger issue, but I'm starting to get the feeling this one is going to go the same way as SARS, Monkey Pox, and the Bird Flu. The media wants fear and panack so people will stay tuned in. This isn't to say people shouldn't use normal common sense that says wash your hands and cover your mouth while you sneeze or cough, but staying away from a place that has no confirmed cases is just stupid.

[mikerault]

It seems that several of the cases outside of Mexico originated from flights (if I read the reports correct) at the Cancun airport, if that is the case how can there be no cases in Cancun or Cozumel?

[lamont]

My information is not from the MX government...it's from WHO, CDC, and local doctors who have no political or financial agendas.

Again...as MORE FACTS come out about this today, this flu strain is no more dangerous than the common flu as we know - it's just NEW.


What FACTS do you have that this is no more dangerous than the common flu?

Antigenic shifts in flu like this tend to produce more dangerous flus. That is why the WHO has escalated the pandemic alert to 5. Clearly the authorities don't agree with you that this is ignorable and is just the same as the common flu.

[MMM]

On the mask thing, as I understand it, the run of the mill kind are more for the purposes of you infecting someone instead of protecting you. As per acouple of interviews I heard today from physicians.

And yes, info today is that there is no possibility to prevent spread, it's a mild type, and we need to get used to it as yet another flu type. And health authorities will continue to monitor. Although I don't have confirmation, I think we can expect "stand downs" to start appearing in next few days.

[1KWIK_69]

What FACTS do you have that this is no more dangerous than the common flu?

Antigenic shifts in flu like this tend to produce more dangerous flus. That is why the WHO has escalated the pandemic alert to 5. Clearly the authorities don't agree with you that this is ignorable and is just the same as the common flu.

Without being able to cite sources without a lot of digging that I'd rather not do right now, I've read several articles that have quoted officials from the WHO and other top flu experts that have stated that overall this is not as dangerous to most as the Avian flu. If I run accross more articles that quote these specialists, I'll be sure and save the url so I can post it. I agree that this thing could turn ugly, but so far it hasn't done that outside of Mexico city and a few other locations in Mexico that are far from Cozumel. Why are you so certain that this WILL turn into a huge pandemic? Why are you so afraid? Common sense prevention is very warrented right now, but not fear and panack....

[fireflock]

I would probably call this informed opinion instead of fact, but here you go:

Scientists see this flu strain as relatively mild - Los Angeles Times (http://www.latimes.com/features/health/la-sci-swine-reality30-2009apr30,0,3606923.story)



Scientists see this flu strain as relatively mild
Genetic data indicate this outbreak won't be as deadly as that of 1918, or even the average winter.
By Karen Kaplan and Alan Zarembo
April 30, 2009
As the World Health Organization raised its infectious disease alert level Wednesday and health officials confirmed the first death linked to swine flu inside U.S. borders, scientists studying the virus are coming to the consensus that this hybrid strain of influenza -- at least in its current form -- isn't shaping up to be as fatal as the strains that caused some previous pandemics.

[geokr]

What FACTS do you have that this is no more dangerous than the common flu?

Antigenic shifts in flu like this tend to produce more dangerous flus. That is why the WHO has escalated the pandemic alert to 5. Clearly the authorities don't agree with you that this is ignorable and is just the same as the common flu.

Chill....there is no one, other than our vice president and the media who feed on this nonsense, who are fanning the flames of hysteria over this flu strain. It's flu ordinaire, the fluvor of the month, nothing spectacular in anything other than it's causing needless fear, disruption of the travel industry and those businesses who rely on it, a temporary burp in the stock market, and a death sentence for 300,000 Egyptian pigs. People get the flu every day. Sadly, some people are affected more than others but no more by this strain, it turns out, than others. Tomorrow this will be yesterday's flu. Do what 99.9999% of the people with the flu do, including this one. Get over it.

[1KWIK_69]

Chill....there is no one, other than our vice president and the media who feed on this nonsense, who are fanning the flames of hysteria over this flu strain. It's flu ordinaire, the fluvor of the month, nothing spectacular in anything other than causing needless fear, disruption of the travel industry and those businesses who rely on it, a temporary burp in the stock market, and a death sentence for 300,000 Egyptian pigs. People get the flu every day. Sadly, some people are affected more than others but no more by this strain, it turns out, than others. Tomorrow this will be yesterday's flu. Do what most people with the flu do, including this one. Get over it.

Some people just get bored with every day life and latch on the the fear and panack of the moment to make their lives more interesting. Algore and his worshippers are great examples of that. :shakehead:

[jayjoans]

This flu doesn't even register on my concern scale. I will wash my hands, try not to pick my nose, and ask people to not spit on me when they talk. I'm in Cozumel right now, and have zero concern about it.

THIS IS WHAT ABSOLUTELY SCARES ME:

“Rule one: Never allow a crisis to go to waste,” Mr. Rahm Emanuel said in an interview.. “They are opportunities to do big things.” (White House Chief of Staff)

I have no doubt that things are going on at the top level of the US government right now that they would rather us not see or have the focus put on by the media (not that the media would report it correctly anyway) While we are "freaking out" about the FLU!, earnings are being reported, money is being wasted, decisions are being made that will affect every American, likely negatively.

Big picture folks, the right hand is screwing us while the left hand hands us a useless mask. In this case, people we all know and love in Cozumel are suffering needlessly.

[geokr]

Here, here....

[judydivescoz]

This flu doesn't even register on my concern scale. I will wash my hands, try not to pick my nose, and ask people to not spit on me when they talk. I'm in Cozumel right now, and have zero concern about it.

THIS IS WHAT ABSOLUTELY SCARES ME:

ųule one: Never allow a crisis to go to waste, Mr. Rahm Emanuel said in an interview.. ŵhey are opportunities to do big things. (White House Chief of Staff)

I have no doubt that things are going on at the top level of the US government right now that they would rather us not see or have the focus put on by the media (not that the media would report it correctly anyway) While we are "freaking out" about the FLU!, earnings are being reported, money is being wasted, decisions are being made that will affect every American, likely negatively.

Big picture folks, the right hand is screwing us while the left hand hands us a useless mask. In this case, people we all know and love in Cozumel are suffering needlessly.

So your theory is that is all a big conspiracy by the Democrats to change the media focus in the US from the bad economy to the swine flue??? WOW

[1KWIK_69]

So your theory is that is all a big conspiracy by the Democrats to change the media focus in the US from the bad economy to the swine flue??? WOW

Why not? They used fear and panack to get us to let them spend 2 trillion dollars on pet projects, paying off campaign contributors and putting the US banking system and auto industry under federal control. Why should this emergency be any different?

[geokr]

So your theory is that is all a big conspiracy by the Democrats to change the media focus in the US from the bad economy to the swine flue??? WOW

No - it's to what's being done by the Democrats as their "solution" to the bad economy. Is this thread being hijacked??? Judy - shame on you....:no:

[1KWIK_69]

So your theory is that is all a big conspiracy by the Democrats to change the media focus in the US from the bad economy to the swine flue??? WOW

I'm not saying the dems always create these emergencies, but they sure as hell know how to take advantage of them.

****END THREADJACK****

[judydivescoz]

Why not? They used fear and panack to get us to let them spend 2 trillion dollars on pet projects, paying off campaign contributors and putting the US banking system and auto industry under federal control. Why should this emergency be any different?

Not going to take that bait and start a political debate. We probably think very differently when it comes to politics. Thats fine. I just find it to be an incredibly interesting conspiracy theory

[jayjoans]

wait wait wait.

I'm not saying Rahmbo generated the flu, what I'm saying is that since it is here, he'll take advantage of it. HE SAID HE WOULD DO JUST THAT, WHY WOULD YOU THINK HE WOULDN'T?

Read what I wrote Judy, you're connecting dots that aren't there.

WOW yourself.

edit after your last post: what conspiracy? Read his own words!

“Rule one: Never allow a crisis to go to waste,” Mr. Rahm Emanuel said in an interview.. “They are opportunities to do big things.” (White House Chief of Staff)

Judy- what do you think he meant by "opportunities to do big things"? really--what do you think he meant?

[UnderwaterOffice]

Why not? They used fear and panack to get us to let them spend 2 trillion dollars on pet projects, paying off campaign contributors and putting the US banking system and auto industry under federal control. Why should this emergency be any different?


Oh gawd.. I think you are showing signs of the donkey flu.

[judydivescoz]

wait wait wait.

I'm not saying Rahmbo generated the flu, what I'm saying is that since it is here, he'll take advantage of it. HE SAID HE WOULD DO JUST THAT, WHY WOULD YOU THINK HE WOULDN'T?

Read what I wrote Judy, you're connecting dots that aren't there.

WOW yourself.

edit after your last post: what conspiracy? Read his own words!

ųule one: Never allow a crisis to go to waste, Mr. Rahm Emanuel said in an interview.. ŵhey are opportunities to do big things. (White House Chief of Staff)

Judy- what do you think he meant by "opportunities to do big things"? really--what

do you think he meant?


I don't know, perhaps I am a bit naive and look at the world through rose covered glasses or have my head in the sand (although toes in the sand makes me happy)but I don't believe Rahm Emanuel is behind the the current frenzied press coverage of swine flu. He's a bit busy. And honestly, its ok that we may disagree.

[DandyDon]

And yes, info today is that there is no possibility to prevent spread, it's a mild type, and we need to get used to it as yet another flu type. And health authorities will continue to monitor. Although I don't have confirmation, I think we can expect "stand downs" to start appearing in next few days.
I hope you're right. I read one article suggesting that a possible reason that this H1N1 has seemed milder in the US than Mexico is that perhaps the flu vaccines administered in the US since the last H1N1 scare 30 years ago that did fizzle just might have given many some resistance to this new H1N1. What was not known was the vaccination records of those afflicted in the US or in Mexico tho. Are flu vaccine shots common in Mexico...?

An ominous warning from another source...

CNN) -- If there's a blessing in the current swine flu epidemic, it's how benign the illness seems to be outside the central disease cluster in Mexico. But history offers a dark warning to anyone ready to write off the 2009 H1N1 virus.

In each of the four major pandemics since 1889, a spring wave of relatively mild illness was followed by a second wave, a few months later, of a much more virulent disease. This was true in 1889, 1957, 1968 and in the catastrophic flu outbreak of 1918, which sickened an estimated third of the world's population and killed, conservatively, 50 million people.

Lone Simonsen, an epidemiologist at George Washington University, who has studied the course of prior pandemics in both the United States and her native Denmark, says, "The good news from past pandemics, in several experiences, is that the majority of deaths have happened not in the first wave, but later." Based on this, Simonsen suggests there may be time to develop an effective vaccine before a second, more virulent strain, begins to circulate.

The strains selected to fight in the coming fall were already chosen in February tho, so we need to look anew for a vaccine against this H1N1 to now be included in the coming flu shot.

I do hope this one fizzles, and we then fight the next wave with a good vaccine.

[jayjoans]

Judy-you and I agree. I don't believe he is behind the press coverage either, and didn't say I thought he was. My point is that by his own statement the White House Chief of Staff uses crises "to do things that you think you could not do before".

Ask yourself what type of things could the government NOT be able to do without the help of a crisis. Without confusion, hysteria, worry, stress, emotions and everything else that comes with a crisis?

Are any of those things good? When you're stressed, low on sleep, hungry, scared, sick, emotional, is that the time to make a life changing decision?

Just so others don't think I'm cherry picking quotes, here is the expanded version of what he said:

"You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. What I mean by that is it's an opportunity to do things that you think you could not do before. This is an opportunity. What used to be long-term problems -- be they in the health care area, energy area, education area, fiscal area, tax area, regulatory reform area -- things that we had postponed for too long that were long-term are now immediate and must be dealt with. And this crisis provides the opportunity for us, as I would say, the opportunity to do things that you could not do before."

Ok, I'm done with this, I made my point and others can and will disagree. Over and out, we're getting picked up tomorrow morning at 8am to dive.:D

[UnderwaterOffice]

Ask yourself what type of things could the government NOT be able to do without the help of a crisis. Without confusion, hysteria, worry, stress, emotions and everything else that comes with a crisis?



He is 100% correct, we should listen to him intently.

Please build an underwater church for us immediately.

[driftwood]

Hi Don,

I may have an answer for the slaughter of hogs in Egypt. All the hogs are owned by the country's Coptic Christian minority.

[Bandmom]

I will wash my hands, try not to pick my nose, and ask people to not spit on me when they talk......

:rofl3: :rofl3: :rofl3: :rofl3:

[deeper thoughts]

Hi Don,

I may have an answer for the slaughter of hogs in Egypt. All the hogs are owned by the country's Coptic Christian minority.

You have exposed a dirty little secret that the dying media has failed to do. Why? HMMM

[don Francisco]

It's too soon to how severe this particular H1N1 strain will turn out to be, and it could still mutate, as viruses are prone to do. It's also too early to predice whether it'll be contained or go viral (sorry couldn't resist). Despite the media frenzy, the WHO is taking measured steps towards containment and reasonable caution isn't a bad idea.

In any case the dilemma for anyone with an upcomming dive vacation is the same. Whether to cancel or postpone the trip, to avoid the risk of catching this or even a regular cold or flu at an airport, or rolling the dice and flying anyway. The destination is irrerevelant, since it isn't where you're going that's the problem but who you meet on the way.

For those going to Coz, or flying anywhere else, consider trying for a direct flight, or at least stay away from folks as much as possible during layovers. If you're in an area where there's already some outbreaks, you might convinve your doctor to prescribe Tamiflu, which has shown some preventative benefits.

Otherwise, changing destinations makes no sense at all, unless you're changing from one you fly to to one you drive to.

[hammersb]

I am planning on diving in Cozumel May 5 and wanted to get the most recent information on what's different in San Miguel. What's open and what's closed? Any changes you noticed, some that might even be an improvement, associated with the cruise ships being gone. Things like that. This will help us get excited about our trip other than just the negative stuff we hear.

[jawfish]

WOW, you are heading out for a tropical vacation filled with scuba diving.... no negativity there!!

[ggunn]

Why though? Even in Mexico the idea is to limit ones exposure by NOT congregating in large masses. Thus it is perfectly sensible to say "I would limit my exposure to small areas crammed with masses of humanity for the near-term".
It's fine to say that or hold that opinion as an individual, but to say it over the national media from his post as VP of the US is, IMO, a bit irresponsible. YMMV, of course, but I am certainly not alone.

[DandyDon]

For those going to Coz, or flying anywhere else, consider trying for a direct flight, or at least stay away from folks as much as possible during layovers. If you're in an area where there's already some outbreaks, you might convinve your doctor to prescribe Tamiflu, which has shown some preventative benefits.

Otherwise, changing destinations makes no sense at all, unless you're changing from one you fly to to one you drive to.
Going outside of a terminal during a layover should be easy enough. You just have to put up with TSA screening again on re-entering.

I do hope we see this thing fizzle at least until the fall with the expected second wave, but how do you figure destination is not important? Yes, I know this H1N1-2009 has established itself in other places, most certainly in Texas to some extent, but it's still most common in Mexico - so how it visiting Mexico as safe as others? :confused:

Confirmations have not been announced in the Yucatan, but funny - I distrust that government even more than I distrust my own. With Mexico taking tremendous losses in tourism and Cancun hotels at less than 50% full, some news reports showing isolated areas that are usually busy, can we really believe that they're going to be open about new problems?

Air fares are down. Did these fare cuts happen before the flu news or start after? I saw today that Continental is cutting back capacities to Mexico by half with reduced demands: Continental cuts Mexico capacity amid swine flu (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/continental-cuts-mexico-capacity-amid/story.aspx?guid={5DA44364-2961-4215-8E15-63EB7470105E}&dist=msr_1)

Be sure to confirm your reservations often, even if just to check your seat assignments. I've been moved to lousy seats before on equipment changes.

Confirmed sickened worldwide, 519: 300 in Mexico; 146 in U.S.; 35 in Canada; 13 in Spain; 10 in Britain; four each in Germany and New Zealand; two in Israel; one each in Switzerland, Austria, China, Denmark and the Netherlands. Mexico is no longer releasing "suspected" numbers; the number of suspected cases was 2,498 before the tally was halted.

[ggunn]

I'm not saying the dems always create these emergencies, but they sure as hell know how to take advantage of them.

****END THREADJACK****
If you substitute "politicians" for "dems", I'll agree with you. Have you already forgotten 9-11 and Saddam's WMD's?

[pilot fish]

Folks, all lamont is saying, which I agree with, is pay attention to this flu outbreak and be especially cautious of the next flu outbreak season, the fall. Science is backing that up. He went on say, those that live, work and depend on Coz tourist dollars, are mistakenly taking this too lightly. They want it to be less severe, so they might be misreading some of the warning signs that say otherwise. Just because his opinion is different than the Cozophiles does not make him wrong. He is trying to do a service to the dve community. It is obvious he has no vested interest in any outcome, nor has any financial stake in any of it.

[BaileyM]

Just talked with friends diving in Cozumel. Everything is fine, but the town is quiet. No cruise ships, so all the tourist shops are closed. All the cantinas are closed too. Most restaurants open, as are the grocery stores. All these closures are ordered through May 6. Everything should be back to normal shortly after you get there. No reported cases of the flu either. Have a great time, I'm jealous!

[1KWIK_69]

If you substitute "politicians" for "dems", I'll agree with you. Have you already forgotten 9-11 and Saddam's WMD's?

Well that point is very open to debate. For starters, it's still not proven that the Iraqi General that says his men moved the chemical weapons to Syria was lying. Not to mention that EVERY top intelligence agency in the world said Saddam had WMDs. Bush didn't make that up and get the Russians, Israelis, French, and the UK intelligence services to lie on his behalf too.....

Wanna make a bet on how long it takes for President Teleprompter to use it as an emergency excuse to impliment Socialized Medicine by saying that the poor uninsured masses will be spreading the Swine flu because they won't be going to the doctor?

[dive pro]

HOLA FROM CANCUN, WE ARE DIVING TOMORROW, WE HAVE A MORNING AFTERNOON AND NIGHT DIVE, WE HAVE HAD CANCELATIONS BUT STILL HAVE SOME FEW DIVERS. HERE IS AN ARTICLE THAT I THOUGHT INTERESTING TO SHARE ON THIS BOARD SPECIALLY COMING FROM THE
WORLD'S HEALTH ORGANIZATION THAT IS A UNITED NATIONS AGENCY: THEY RECOMMEND NOT TO RESTRICT TRAVELING BUT EVERYONE IS ENTITLED TO THEIR OWN DESITIONS.

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/guidance/public_health/travel_advice/en/index.html

[don Francisco]

Going outside of a terminal during a layover should be easy enough. You just have to put up with TSA screening again on re-entering.

..... but how do you figure destination is not important? Yes, I know this H1N1-2009 has established itself in other places, most certainly in Texas to some extent, but it's still most common in Mexico - so how it visiting Mexico as safe as others? :confused:



While you don't seem willing to accept the Mexican government's public announcements about where there are confirmed or uncomfirmed cases, you might do well by understanding Mexican travel patterns. Mexico is a large country and Mexicans don't have the level of intra-national travel that we see in the USA, so most of the travel to and from the hardest hit areas within Mexico is in fact to the good old USA.

The Yucatan Peninsula is a good 1,000+ miles from Mexico City and is an area with little intra-regional travel. Cozumel itself is an island off this fairly remote penninsula. So to say that visiting Cozumel is risky because of flu in Mexico City is like saying visiting Key West is risky because of flu in New York or Texas. If and when this flu does finally appear in Cozumel, or the elsewhere in the Yucatan, it's a safe bet that the route of transmission will be through the USA, with Houston Airport as the most likely crossover for transmission.

The fact is that Mexico is doing more than any other country to manage and contain this flu. Food workers in the USA do not routinely wear masks, Mexicans do. Moreover, Mexico has taken extremely difficult steps to reduce person to person transmission by severely constraining public gatherings, closing schools, and restricting travel.

It remains to be seen whether they're possibly over-reacting, but don't accuse the Mexican government of being asleep, or downplaying the problem.

Ultimately, it's up to each individual to assess any risks, but on careful examination one would have to conclude that travel from the USA to Cozumel is 100% as safe, (for the traveller) as travel to any other destination, and that a visitor from the USA is far more likely to bring this virus in than to take it out.

[pilot fish]

It's up to each individual to assess any risks, but on careful examination one would have to conclude that travel from the USA to Cozumel is 100% as safe, (for the traveller) as travel to any other destination, and that a visitor is far more likely to bring this virus in than to take it out.


That's a bit misleading, unintentionally I'm sure, because while the trip TO Coz would be as safe as a trip to any other place, it's the increased infection possibilities in Coz that have people worried. Keep in mind that there have been some cases in Cancun and travel to and from Coz occurs daily.

[ggunn]

Well that point is very open to debate. For starters, it's still not proven that the Iraqi General that says his men moved the chemical weapons to Syria was lying. Not to mention that EVERY top intelligence agency in the world said Saddam had WMDs. Bush didn't make that up and get the Russians, Israelis, French, and the UK intelligence services to lie on his behalf too.....

Wanna make a bet on how long it takes for President Teleprompter to use it as an emergency excuse to impliment Socialized Medicine by saying that the poor uninsured masses will be spreading the Swine flu because they won't be going to the doctor?
In my experience, name calling is the last resort when one's argument won't stand on its own.

[hammersb]

WOW, you are heading out for a tropical vacation filled with scuba diving.... no negativity there!!

I don't understand what you mean. Are you being sarcastic?

[DandyDon]

While, you don't seem willing to accept, the Mexican government's public announcements about where there are confirmed or uncomfirmed cases, you might do well by understanding Mexican travel patterns. Mexico is a large country and Mexicans don't have the level of intra-national travel that we see in the USA, so most of the travel to and from the hardest hit areas within Mexico is in fact to the good old USA.

The Yucatan Peninsula is a good 1,000+ miles from Mexico City and is an area with little intra-regional travel. Cozumel itself is an island off this fairly remote penninsula. So to say that visiting cozumel because of flu in Mexico City is loke saying visiting key West is dangerous because of flu in New York or Texas. If and when this flu does finally appear in Cozumel, or the elsewhere in the Yucatan, it's a safe bet that the route of transmission will be through the USA, with Houston Airport as the most likely crossover for transmission.

The fact is that Mexico is doing more than any other country to manage and contain this flu. Food workers in the USA do not routinely wear masks, Mexicans do. Moreover, Mexico has taken extremely difficult steps to reduce person to person transmission by severely constraining public gatherings, closing schools, and restricting travel.

It remains to be seen whether they're possibly over-reacting, but don't accuse the Mexican government of being asleep, or downplaying the problem.

Ultimately, it's up to each individual to assess any risks, but on careful examination one would have to conclude that travel from the USA to Cozumel is 100% as safe, (for the traveller) as travel to any other destination, and that a visitor is far more likely to bring this virus in than to take it out.
"The Yucatan Peninsula is a good 1,000+ miles from Mexico City" I doubt that's true. I don't know how far it is, but Aeromexico flies from Mexico City to Cancun in 2 hours so I'm guessing around 600-700 miles? Not a big difference, but I am kind of tired of wild claims here.

"Mexicans don't have the level of intra-national travel that we see in the USA..." Probly not, but the Yucatan is no where nearly as isolated as it was 30 years ago. People do travel between the two. Hell, did you know that in the early days of AIDS transmission, that it was a male Flight Attendant who spread it far and wide. Completely different, yes - but don't tell me the Yuc-Pen is isolated.

Oh, BTW, the first symptoms started to show up in early March in the Mexican state of Veracruz. Know where that is? It at the very bottom of the Gulf there, even closer to the Yuc-Pen. Would you like bus information...?

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/94/Division_politica_mexico.svg/460px-Division_politica_mexico.svg.png

"Cozumel itself is an island off this fairly remote penninsula. " Ever rode the ferry? It's not all tourists. Cozumel is virtually connected to the Yuc-Pen as many locals who travel the ferry there all hours of the day.

"The fact is that Mexico is doing more than any other country to manage and contain this flu. " Hardly! They're doing all they can now, but many reports indicate they are overwhelmed, after a late start.

"...don't accuse the Mexican government of being asleep, or downplaying the problem." Seems to be a popular conception. They would have us believe that there is no flu at all in the Yuc-Pen, H1N1-2009 or otherwise which is really insulting. Flu strains are quite common everywhere even in April, but they don't have a single case of any strain. Please...?! :rofl3: Or maybe they should look harder...?

[jayjoans]

DandyDon--do you work for the swine flu lobby or what!?

geez man, it's as if you have a financial stake in making sure people remain freaked out. There is plenty of information out there now for people to make their own decisions. It is not like the first 24 hours when everybody was going "hog" wild about this. Even the media is toning it down, yet you're still pulling fire alarms left and right.

My assumption is that if someone is a certified diver, they likely have at least half a brain. At this point, that's all you need to decide whether traveling is in your comfort zone or not.

End of a non-story already.

[ggunn]

"The Yucatan Peninsula is a good 1,000+ miles from Mexico City" I doubt that's true. I don't know how far it is, but Aeromexico flies from Mexico City to Cancun in 2 hours so I'm guessing around 600-700 miles? Not a big difference, but I am kind of tired of wild claims here.

From Travel Distance Calculator and Map between World Cities (http://www.mapcrow.info)
Mexico, Mexico to Cozumel, Mexico - 980.11 Miles

BTW, Austin is only 566 miles from Mexico City. On Cozumel I'll be nearly twice as far away from Swine Flu Ground Zero as I am at home. ;^)

[pilot fish]

Why is it that people they recommend caution and that take this flu situation seriously, how can you not?, get jumped on in this thread? He' s just correcting errors and advising fellow divers to pay attention to the warnings. Coz is Don's second home. Hello?


DandyDon--do you work for the swine flu lobby or what!?

geez man, it's as if you have a financial stake in making sure people remain freaked out. There is plenty of information out there now for people to make their own decisions. It is not like the first 24 hours when everybody was going "hog" wild about this. Even the media is toning it down, yet you're still pulling fire alarms left and right.

My assumption is that if someone is a certified diver, they likely have at least half a brain. At this point, that's all you need to decide whether traveling is in your comfort zone or not.

End of a non-story already.

[don Francisco]

That's a bit misleading, unintentionally I'm sure, because while the trip TO Coz would be as safe as a trip to any other place, it's the increased infection possibilities in Coz that have people worried. Keep in mind that there have been some cases in Cancun and travel to and from Coz occurs daily.

Don't mean to mislead, and it's possible that you have some info I lack, but to my knowledge, and I'm keeping abreast of this story as it develops, there are as yet no confirmed cases anywhere in the Yucatan, including Cancun.

There are confirmed cases among New York city students who visited Cancun recently, but there's been no confirmation of where they might have picked up the virus. It's just as possible that transmission occured at an airport enroute.

[Christi]

Coz is Don's second home. Hello?

?????????????:confused:

No one is saying not to keep advised or to stay aware of the situation - they're saying make informed choices - which even Don does and then he ends the same sentence with something like "for those of you foolish enough to put yourself in harm's way..." if you're going to encourage people to make informed choices, then don't chastise them for the choices they DO make.

The irony of it is that the people that ARE staying aware and keeping up with the updates and what WHO and CDC are saying are the ones that now realize this isn't nearly as serious as it was initially thought to be and that the hype caused great damage to many people. Yes, it's a nasty flu virus and no one ever wants to get that...but it has no boundaries! While we still have no reported cases of it here as of today, I suspect a few will pop up eventually - but in my opinion, it's nothing to go hysterical over.

With all of this said I will throw my final punch point out there. Given that containment is an impossibility, along with the fact that the swine flu (or any flu/virus/illness for that matter) has no boundaries...I would argue that your travel DESTINATION is irrelevant. If you are afraid to travel because you are afraid of the possibility of getting the flu - then I would also argue with the same logic that you should cancel ALL travel plans including domestic travel until the risks are completely gone.

BTW - I am not chastising those who have chosen to cancel/postpone their travel plans to Cozumel - especially given those with young children. What I question are those that are citing the REASON for their cancellations to Cozumel specifically because they think that travel to this area puts them at higher risk than anywhere else...including but not limited to airports, airplanes, their local grocery store, local gym, local movie theater, bar, etc. My point is that ALL of these places are breeding grounds on a daily basis for a variety of viral infections and bacterial infections. So, I just encourage people to weigh ALL of the facts and weigh the risks associated with this current hysteria vs. those you take in your normal everyday life when making your travel decisions.

I was actually kind of hoping that all of the drug cartel would contract fatal cases of the swine flu and then we'd have nothing left to worry about here but the possibility of hurricanes :)

[don Francisco]

There's absolute nothing wrong with caution, but let's be worried about the right thing.

Mexico is shutting down large sections of their economy, doing everything possible to prevent transmission through mass assemblies, and otherwise has the strongest containment policies in place.

Compare that to the USA, where our Vice President is publicly flamed for over-reacting by suggesting to his own family that they avoid confined places such as aircraft and subways. Here in the USA baseball stadiums are still crowded, and kids from closed schools are visiting the mall instead.

If you live is a small town, you're probably safer at home, but if you travel within a large metropolitan area in the USA you're probably more exposed to H1N1 than if you visited Cozumel.

That can change at any time, but I'll bet anyone a 2 tank dive in Coz. that very soon there'll be more confirmed cases difused over a wider area within the "safe" confines of the USA than in Mexico.


BTW- I'm betting only the first person to pick up the bet.

[ggunn]

Compare that to the USA, where our Vice President is publicly flamed for over-reacting by suggesting to his own family that they avoid confined places such as aircraft and subways.

Just to be clear, he didn't just suggest it to his family, he suggested it to the whole country (the whole world, maybe) from his position as an authority figure. I "flamed" him for that, myself. If he had just said it to his family, I would not have had a problem with it.

[pilot fish]

Just to be clear, he didn't just suggest it to his family, he suggested it to the whole country (the whole world, maybe) from his position as an authority figure. I "flamed" him for that, myself. If he had just said it to his family, I would not have had a problem with it.

Biden is a loose lipped showoff that continually says the wrong thing at the wrong time. The fact that he is a heart beat from the Presidency is more scary than the foolish faux pas he blathers, daily. Even if he said just his own family, that would be as bad. He needs to keep it to himself and just say the party line.

[Firefyter]

"The Yucatan Peninsula is a good 1,000+ miles from Mexico City" I doubt that's true. I don't know how far it is, but Aeromexico flies from Mexico City to Cancun in 2 hours so I'm guessing around 600-700 miles? Not a big difference, but I am kind of tired of wild claims here.



It's only 2.5 hours from DFW. Ya think it's only 600-700 miles from here? Lighten up on the fear mongering, you sound like a reporter on CNN or something....

[CozumelAntonio]

I found the following artlice very interesting, seems H1N1 has been under the microscope for a while:

H1N1 Tamiflu Resistance in the United States Increases to 96% (http://www.recombinomics.com/News/12050804/H274Y_US_96.html)

Commentary

H1N1 Tamiflu Resistance in the United States Increases to 96%
Recombinomics Commentary 23:38
December 5, 2008


Twenty-four of 25 influenza A (H1N1) viruses tested were resistant to oseltamivir

Twenty-five influenza A (H1N1) and five influenza A (H3N2) viruses were tested for adamantane resistance. All influenza A (H1N1) viruses were sensitive to the adamantanes. All influenza A (H3N2) viruses tested were resistant to the adamantanes.

The above comments from the CDC week 48 report indicates the four most recently tested H1N1 isolates were oseltamivir resistant, raising the frequency in the United States to 96% and extending the streak of Tamiflu resistance to the 23 most recently tested samples.

The latest report significantly increases the number of H1N1 isolates tested for amantadine resistance. Since all are sensitive, it is likely that the H1N1 in the United States is clade 2B (Brisbane/59) and not clade 2C (Hong Kong), which was 100% amantadine resistant last season in the United States.

Thus, clade 2B has become the dominant H1N1 sub-clade in the United States, and has also been the dominant influenza A isolate in the United States since 112/128 subtypes influenza A was H1N1. Similarly, clade 2B is the most common influenza in the United States at this tie since 282/365 isolates are influenza A.

The resistance levels in H1N1 in the United States is similar to other countries in North America and Europe, where levels are at or near 100% for Canada (1/1), England (19/20), and Scotland (2/2) and at 100% in Norway and Austria.

At this time H3N2 is the dominant influenza A subtype reported in Europe, but in the United States, the vast majority of influenza A is H1N1, raising concerns regarding the current antiviral recommendations for seasonal flu, which includes oseltamivir.


Media Links

Recombinomics Presentations

Recombinomics Publications

Recombinomics Paper at Nature Precedings

[Sue Sue]

Posted by the AP (Associated Press) 19 min ago. Swine flu virus starting to look less threatening

ATLANTA The swine flu virus that has frightened the world is beginning to look a little less ominous. New York City officials reported Friday that the swine flu still has not spread beyond a few schools. In Mexico, very few relatives of flu victims seem to have caught the virus.

One flu expert says there's no reason to believe the new virus is a more serious strain than seasonal flu. And a federal health official said the new flu virus doesn't appear to have genes that made the 1918 pandemic flu strain so deadly. ....



OK folks, at least it is some good news. Although, the article does continue on with a message to continue caution at this point. Regardless, this is good news with good advice as well.

With this in mind...As of today, and some fancy changes of reservations due to Continental "consolidating" flights, I will say the trip Michael and I have planned is still a go. We had to move our reservations out 1 day, (Flights, lodging and Diving) but, that's OK. I have also discussed the plan of travel we have with medical professionals as well. Two of them being my own son and daughter-in-law who ER Registered Nurses. They all have said to go ahead with travel plans and take the same precautionary measures that would be taken during any flu season.

Therefore, unless the powers that be shut it all down, Michael and I and our group are still counting the days until we say Hola Cozumel !!!

[pilot fish]

?????????????:confused:
No one is saying not to keep advised or to stay aware of the situation - they're saying make informed choices - which even Don does and then he ends the same sentence with something like "for those of you foolish enough to put yourself in harm's way..." if you're going to encourage people to make informed choices, then don't chastise them for the choices they DO make.

The irony of it is that the people that ARE staying aware and keeping up with the updates and what WHO and CDC are saying are the ones that now realize this isn't nearly as serious as it was initially thought to be and that the hype caused great damage to many people. Yes, it's a nasty flu virus and no one ever wants to get that...but it has no boundaries! While we still have no reported cases of it here as of today, I suspect a few will pop up eventually - but in my opinion, it's nothing to go hysterical over.


The use of that words, hysteria & hype, indicates to me that you are doing the same thing you accuse Don of doing - painting the other side in a negative light. Not giving credence to those that feel that it has the potential to be very serious amounts to the same thing as saying those that ignore it are foolish. You are taking a more loose approach to it and others are taking a more serious approach to it. Both right? neither is right?


With all of this said I will throw my final punch point out there. Given that containment is an impossibility, along with the fact that the swine flu (or any flu/virus/illness for that matter) has no boundaries...I would argue that your travel DESTINATION is irrelevant. If you are afraid to travel because you are afraid of the possibility of getting the flu - then I would also argue with the same logic that you should cancel ALL travel plans including domestic travel until the risks are completely gone. BTW - I am not chastising those who have chosen to cancel/postpone their travel plans to Cozumel - especially given those with young children.

You should encourage them not to bring thier kids, maybe?


What I question are those that are citing the REASON for their cancellations to Cozumel specifically because they think that travel to this area puts them at higher risk than anywhere else...including but not limited to airports, airplanes, their local grocery store, local gym, local movie theater, bar, etc. My point is that ALL of these places are breeding grounds on a daily basis for a variety of viral infections and bacterial infections. So, I just encourage people to weigh ALL of the facts and weigh the risks associated with this current hysteria vs. those you take in your normal everyday life when making your travel decisions.

maybe ALL non essential travel should cease for a few weeks? That surley would help contain it, right?


I was actually kind of hoping that all of the drug cartel would contract fatal cases of the swine flu and then we'd have nothing left to worry about here but the possibility of hurricanes :)


Yeah, we totally agree there. Encourage THEM to travel to Mexico City:D

[jayjoans]

He' s just correcting errors and advising fellow divers to pay attention to the warnings.

Well, IF that is his intention, he's 0-5 with NO advice to fellow divers to pay attention to the warnings. This is what is known as Epic Fail.

"The Yucatan Peninsula is a good 1,000+ miles from Mexico City" I doubt that's true. I don't know how far it is, but Aeromexico flies from Mexico City to Cancun in 2 hours so I'm guessing around 600-700 miles? Not a big difference, but I am kind of tired of wild claims here.

SORRY, 980 miles. NO CORRECTION HERE, actually his guess was wrong, although he states it is if he's pointing out someone's "wild claim".

"Mexicans don't have the level of intra-national travel that we see in the USA..." Probly not

HE AGREED, NO CORRECTION HERE


"Cozumel itself is an island off this fairly remote penninsula. " Ever rode the ferry? It's not all tourists. Cozumel is virtually connected to the Yuc-Pen as many locals who travel the ferry there all hours of the day.

NO CORRECTION HERE. The OP made no statement about who rides on what ferry. Compare the population of the Yucatan peninsula to Mexico City. Would it then be considered remote?

"The fact is that Mexico is doing more than any other country to manage and contain this flu. " Hardly! They're doing all they can now, but many reports indicate they are overwhelmed, after a late start.

CORRECTION, NO. Opinion, yes.
"many reports claim that they are doing MORE than any other country" -jayjoans.

"...don't accuse the Mexican government of being asleep, or downplaying the problem." Seems to be a popular conception. They would have us believe that there is no flu at all in the Yuc-Pen, H1N1-2009 or otherwise which is really insulting. Flu strains are quite common everywhere even in April, but they don't have a single case of any strain. Please...?! Or maybe they should look harder...?

CORRECTION OR JUST STATEMENT?

[Firefyter]

All I'm sayin is that some people we know are waaaay more likely to die due to their own mistakes made on a dive trip than they are from the flu, and I think their energies would serve them better trying to rectify that.

I'm just sayin ;)

[mase]

you sound like a reporter on CNN or something....

You mean Fox don't ya. Hannity, O reilly and the boys can certainly stir the pot.

[DandyDon]

DandyDon--do you work for the swine flu lobby or what!?

geez man, it's as if you have a financial stake in making sure people remain freaked out. There is plenty of information out there now for people to make their own decisions. It is not like the first 24 hours when everybody was going "hog" wild about this. Even the media is toning it down, yet you're still pulling fire alarms left and right.

My assumption is that if someone is a certified diver, they likely have at least half a brain. At this point, that's all you need to decide whether traveling is in your comfort zone or not.

End of a non-story already.
Jeeze. Nope, and I haven't raised pigs in 50 yrs TG.

Making your own decisions based on facts available is fine. I am not swallowing a couple of the admitted facts, but as I have said in this thread - if you want to go, go. If you need help finding replacement flights now that Canadian airlines won't go and Continental has cut half their capacity, I'll help you find cheap flights. Every other aspect should be wonderful there with the cruise barges not calling and fewer overnight tourists as well.

From Travel Distance Calculator and Map between World Cities (http://www.mapcrow.info)
Mexico, Mexico to Cozumel, Mexico - 980.11 Miles

BTW, Austin is only 566 miles from Mexico City. On Cozumel I'll be nearly twice as far away from Swine Flu Ground Zero as I am at home. ;^)
Neat site Gordy, but those are driving miles aren't they. Sure it's that far around the Gulf. I really, strongly doubt that Aeromexico flies a B-737 980 miles in 2 hours 5 minutes. I suppose they could come close but schedules are usually built on less than maximum speed. That it's probly 600-700 flight miles is not actually important to the discussion, but 1,000 was exaggerated I think. I don't know where to find out for sure. Most airlines don't quote flight miles like Continental does. Google is often a good source, but not for Mexico. (I got to tell them that there is not a bridge from Coz to PDC like they show on their maps I guess.)

Edit: Found it! Distance between Mexico City, Mexico and Cancún, Mexico, as the crow flies: 808 miles (1300 km) (702 nautical miles)
From: http://www.etn.nl/distance.htm

Why is it that people they recommend caution and that take this flu situation seriously, how can you not?, get jumped on in this thread? He' s just correcting errors and advising fellow divers to pay attention to the warnings. Coz is Don's second home. Hello?
Oh not my second home, but it has become my most favorite dive destination. You're right tho: I don't want to speak against the destination, but do want to stick to real facts.

It's only 2.5 hours from DFW. Ya think it's only 600-700 miles from here? Lighten up on the fear mongering, you sound like a reporter on CNN or something....
Oh Good Gawd. See above, then try to appreciate facts more, ok?

H1N1 Tamiflu Resistance in the United States Increases to 96% (http://www.recombinomics.com/News/12050804/H274Y_US_96.html)
Well that sucks. And Obama just authorized a major shipment to Mexico. Seemed like a good idea.

Posted by the AP (Associated Press) 19 min ago. Swine flu virus starting to look less threatening
I do hope so, really do.

All I'm sayin is that some people we know are waaaay more likely to die due to their own mistakes made on a dive trip than they are from the flu, and I think their energies would serve them better trying to rectify that.

I'm just sayin ;)
Cute. Really cute. If you can't use fact, act cute.

[ggunn]

J

Neat site Gordy, but those are driving miles aren't they.

No, they are great circle distances. Check for yourself; google pointed up several sites to do the calc's, and they are based on latitude and longitude. If they were drive miles, the Austin to Cozumel distance (assuming you could drive to Cozumel, which you can't, even though google maps shows a bridge between Playa and Cozumel) would be huge.

[DandyDon]

Gordy, your site uses the words Driving Directions. I did find this site: Distances Worldwide (http://www.etn.nl/distance.htm) that says it's 808 air miles Mexico City to Cancun. So my guess was off too, but it's nice to have correct information.

[ggunn]

Gordy, your site uses the words Driving Distance. I did find this site: Distances Worldwide (http://www.etn.nl/distance.htm) that says it's 808 air miles Mexico City to Cancun. So my guess was off too, but it's nice to have correct information.
You are correct, sir. 800 miles.

It's still a lot farther than from Mexico City to Austin.

[1KWIK_69]

That's a bit misleading, unintentionally I'm sure, because while the trip TO Coz would be as safe as a trip to any other place, it's the increased infection possibilities in Coz that have people worried. Keep in mind that there have been some cases in Cancun and travel to and from Coz occurs daily.

For crying out loud!

What "increased infection possibilities in Coz" ???

There are NO cases suspected or confirmed of this flu in Cozumel! There IS however a confirmed case in Missouri where I live. There is NO increased infection possibillity IN Cozumel. Maybe in traveling there, but not once there.

There also are NO "Cases in Cancun". Only cases in NY of people that flew out of Cancun. No one in Cancun has been confirmed to be infected. They most likely caught it on the plane from someone making a stop in Cancun on their way from Mexico City to NY.

Did you even bother to read his comparison of staying away from Key West because there are infections in NY????

[1KWIK_69]

Just to be clear, he didn't just suggest it to his family, he suggested it to the whole country (the whole world, maybe) from his position as an authority figure. I "flamed" him for that, myself. If he had just said it to his family, I would not have had a problem with it.


Yeah, what he said! :D

[1KWIK_69]

In my experience, name calling is the last resort when one's argument won't stand on its own.

Who did I call a name? I'm sure the teleprompter knows it's a teleprompter. :confused:

[1KWIK_69]

The use of that words, hysteria & hype, indicates to me that you are doing the same thing you accuse Don of doing - painting the other side in a negative light.

Hysteria and Hype is making FALSE CLAIMS that there are "Some Cases in Cancun" or that you're at a higher risk being in Cozumel than elsewhere when you have no idea, and no credible WHO or CDC official has stated either of your points.

Spreading false information like that just fuels the hysteria and it hurts people.

[geokr]

Finally - the source of this swine flu world-wide pandemic has been identified -


[/IMG]http://www.scubaboard.com/gallery/data/500/thumbs/swine_flu_source_confirmation.jpg (http://www.scubaboard.com/gallery/showphoto.php/photo/126598)

(click me)

[driftin' by]

Wanna make a bet on how long it takes for President Teleprompter to use it as an emergency excuse to impliment Socialized Medicine by saying that the poor uninsured masses will be spreading the Swine flu because they won't be going to the doctor?

President Teleprompter??? It's called earning the respect for the rest of the World since the last 8 years we were led by President 'can't read the' Teleprompter!

FWIW, I ain't canceling my trip to Coz on 6/27 for nothing!

[deeper thoughts]

President teleprompter thats pretty funny lol,

[Firefyter]

It's only 2.5 hours from DFW. Ya think it's only 600-700 miles from here? Lighten up on the fear mongering, you sound like a reporter on CNN or something....
Oh Good Gawd. See above, then try to appreciate facts more, ok?

I do appreciate facts. The problem is you aren't giving any. The facts are that it's still farther from Mexico City to Cozumel than it is from Mexico City to Austin and it's almost as far to DFW and a large part of Texas.




All I'm sayin is that some people we know are waaaay more likely to die due to their own mistakes made on a dive trip than they are from the flu, and I think their energies would serve them better trying to rectify that.

I'm just sayin ;)

Cute. Really cute. If you can't use fact, act cute.

The sad thing is, what I said is a fact. You can't refute it, so you blow it off and continue to try and feed the hysteria. There are none so blind........

[1KWIK_69]

This is getting a little out of hand. Don's a good guy, so is just about everyone else on this site. We just have different opinions. Some have stated incorrect facts. I'm sure I've been less that 100% accurate on a few of them myself. But I wish we could all agree to disagree and stop trying to change each other's minds. The WHO has spoken. We've all heard the actual facts about where confirmed cases are and where they aren't. We all know that there's an increased risk in a confined space with a lot of strangers like on a plane. That's a no brainer. I think it's up to all of us to decide if traveling is something we're willing to do with what's going on, and if we decide to do it, I hope we all practice the common sense precautions that we've all known since our moms taught them to us.

Can't wait to see Cozumel again in July! ;)

[DandyDon]

I do appreciate facts. The problem is you aren't giving any. The facts are that it's still farther from Mexico City to Cozumel than it is from Mexico City to Austin and it's almost as far to DFW and a large part of Texas.
I guess you missed it. It's 808 miles from Mexico City to Cancun according to the site noted. I never said anything about how far it was from Mexico City to Austin, just that it wasn't a thousand as has been bantered. Not that it matters as the bug has traveled much further around North America and beyond, Coz could be 8,000 miles from Mexico City as far as this insane discussion goes with no immunity, but for the record: Fact: Mexico City to Cancun - 808 miles; actual air miles to Coz not listed but somewhat similar. Jeeze. :shakehead:

[dive pro]

that's a bit misleading, unintentionally i'm sure, because while the trip to coz would be as safe as a trip to any other place, it's the increased infection possibilities in coz that have people worried. Keep in mind that there have been some cases in cancun and travel to and from coz occurs daily.

with all due respect you seem to know more than a lot of the people that live and work in cancun so according to wich official agency united nations, mexican or us goverment are you referring has quoted that there have been some cases in cancun??? A day before yesterday an poor old man died of pneumonia , the government just to be sure sent samples to check if it was the human influenza virus and it came back negative, i am not denying that a lot of people with any little flu come in to hospitals to check themselves but that is it,every precaution is been taken just like the cases of cities in the USA about the new york cases it has been said they caught it here,but they also might have caught in on the plane or another airport. but there are still no cases here no confirmed official and i mean who (world helath org), cdc, mexican health official statements etc. Me like a lot of people here and clients and divers are not following so much the media information but the real official info.
Again no disrespect meant but in this matters it is wise to speak being totally informed of this situation. Not just what the media or someone says.
No offense meant let's just clarify information and be well informed please and i am not down playing the situation.

[dive pro]

FROM PILOT FISH QUOTE:maybe ALL non essential travel should cease for a few weeks? That surley would help contain it, right?



THIS INFO COMES FROM THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION AN AGENCY FORM THE UNITED NATIONS AND THE MOST OFFICIAL AGENCY INFORMATION ON THIS MATTER;

WHO | No rationale for travel restrictions (http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/guidance/public_health/travel_advice/en/index.html)

[DandyDon]

I found the following artlice very interesting, seems H1N1 has been under the microscope for a while:

H1N1 Tamiflu Resistance in the United States Increases to 96% (http://www.recombinomics.com/News/12050804/H274Y_US_96.html)
Sorry, I was posting to a lot of caca at the time and didn't look at yours closer at the time. That H1N1 is resistant to Tamiflu, but the A/H1N1 responsible for as many as 176 deaths so far in Mexico is not yet resistant to Tamiflu - so the doses that Obama recently directed to Mexico may still be useful. :thumb:

Now we have several looking for other possible origins tho...?

The Veracruz farm ran by a subsidiary of Virginia's Smithfield Foods was implicated in the origin, but they're claiming all tests are negative and all inspections have been passed. I'm sure it's a disgusting place, crowded pigs, piles of dead carcasses awaiting disposal, sewage lagoon, but such are common to industrial animal farms these days. Anyway, doesn't seem to be any current proof it came from there? Not that I necessarily believe their claims of innocence, but no proof has emerged yet.

It seems that many from Veracruz work in Mexico city, but returned home for Easter, perhaps bringing the infection there then, rather than the otherwise presumed opposite travel of the infection.

A Bangladeshi immigrant who died in Mexico City had recently be visited by a brother from home and there are some reports that the brother was ill during the visit. I'm sure those things are difficult to investigate and the brother cannot currently be found.

Some California US doctors are finding evidence that may suggest that the illness existed on the US-Mexican border for months, having been accepted as Seasonal flu, and perhaps spread from there to the north and south both before being identified as a new strain?

There seems to have been some overseas reports that tried to blame China as the origin, but those have been largely dismissed as groundless.

The virus's genome sequence 'corresponds to a Euro-Asiatic strain...
So suddenly we don't really know where it came from? Finding the true origin and how it affected others may be useful in fighting it.

It's expected to die out over the summer, then return along with other strains in the conventional flu season, but feared that it may acquire Tamiflu resistance from the similar H1N1 that is already resistant and here. As with other pandemics, the second wave could be the big killer.

Still no clear word on why it killed so many in Mexico but not elsewhere? I do hope the bad has past and that it is winding down so we can use the time to work on preventing the second wave.

[ggunn]

Who did I call a name? I'm sure the teleprompter knows it's a teleprompter. :confused:
I guess you told me. When I figure out what you told me, I'll let you know... :cool2:

[jayjoans]

As with other pandemics, the second wave could be the big killer.


:shakehead: There you go again DandyDon. Pulling another fire alarm......

This is NOT a pandemic. The WHO has not characterized it as such.
WHO | Current WHO phase of pandemic alert (http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/index.html)

As of this writing:
The current WHO phase of pandemic alert is 5.

Phase 5 is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region. While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.

Phase 6, the pandemic phase, is characterized by community level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region in addition to the criteria defined in Phase 5. Designation of this phase will indicate that a global pandemic is under way.

Seriously DandyDon, what is your problem? Now that this "threat" is winding down you're now pulling alarms about the second wave that will be the big killer?

I don't know or understand what your agenda is, but it is clear you have one. For a guy that continually tries to come across as the arbiter of fact, your hypocrisy speaks louder than any of your words.

[DandyDon]

I guess you told me. When I figure out what you told me, I'll let you know... :cool2:
I guess you're all packed, got all your relatives organized, etc? What time you leave for the airport? Have a great trip...! :pilot:

[DandyDon]

Lordie, the caca never stops...! :confused:

:shakehead: There you go again DandyDon. Pulling another fire alarm......

This is NOT a pandemic. The WHO has not characterized it as such.
WHO | Current WHO phase of pandemic alert (http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/index.html)

As of this writing:
The current WHO phase of pandemic alert is 5.

Phase 5 is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region. While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.

Phase 6, the pandemic phase, is characterized by community level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region in addition to the criteria defined in Phase 5. Designation of this phase will indicate that a global pandemic is under way.

Seriously DandyDon, what is your problem? Now that this "threat" is winding down you're now pulling alarms about the second wave that will be the big killer?

I don't know or understand what your agenda is, but it is clear you have one. For a guy that continually tries to come across as the arbiter of fact, your hypocrisy speaks louder than any of your words.
You seriously object to me referring to the outbreak as a pandemic give that...?! Gawwwwd! Would you like me to use the word piglet rather than pig too...?

Ok, it's a phase 5 pandemic. Happy?

As as far as "...the second wave that will be the big killer?" yeah, that's what history has taught us. Gadzooks, what is your anti-information agenda?

[ggunn]

I guess you're all packed, got all your relatives organized, etc? What time you leave for the airport? Have a great trip...! :pilot:
I have to be at the airport in about 5 hours. Nighty night. This has been fun, you guys, but I've got much better things to do now. :D

[Martha]

I have to be at the airport in about 5 hours. Nighty night. This has been fun, you guys, but I've got much better things to do now. :D

Have a GREAT time!!!

[Firefyter]

Lordie, the caca never stops...! :confused:



We've noticed. Enough with the Chicken Little routine.

[jayjoans]

Maybe I'll see you tomorrow Gordon, we're diving up north for the first time and looking forward to something a bit different. Today on Delilah we saw a number of huge nurse sharks, hawksbills, lobsters and crab out in the open, juvenile drumfish, eels and a splendid toadfish or two. Two really nice dives today.. The crowds are few, the weather is great and the diving this past week has been wonderful. We fished on Wednesday and got four 25# dorado and a few barracuda, but MAN was it rough around the south point. Wynston will cook it up 2 different ways with veggies and mashed potatoes for about $8-delicious!

[pilot fish]

No offense taken, Miguel. We just must be reading different information on this flu outbreak. Here's a link form CDC that advices non-essential travel to Mexico to be cancelled/postponed. They also says that people should NOT freak out, BUT BE MINDFUL AND TAKE CERTAIN PRECAUTIONS, which I agree with.


Swine flu: Your questions answered - CNN.com (http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/30/ep.swine.flu.questions.answers/index.html)



FROM PILOT FISH QUOTE:maybe ALL non essential travel should cease for a few weeks? That surley would help contain it, right?



THIS INFO COMES FROM THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION AN AGENCY FORM THE UNITED NATIONS AND THE MOST OFFICIAL AGENCY INFORMATION ON THIS MATTER;

WHO | No rationale for travel restrictions (http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/guidance/public_health/travel_advice/en/index.html)

[pilot fish]

No disrepect taken, Miguel. Perhaps I have access to less biased info than you are getting in Coz? Anyway, the flu is spreading and it's **MY** guess its because people are still ignoring the travel advisories? There has to be a very good reason the CDC is advising AGAINST travel to Mexico? Are you suggesting we ignore what the CDC is saying?


Number of confirmed H1N1 cases worldwide soars - CNN.com (http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/05/02/swine.flu/index.html)




with all due respect you seem to know more than a lot of the people that live and work in cancun so according to wich official agency united nations, mexican or us goverment are you referring has quoted that there have been some cases in cancun??? A day before yesterday an poor old man died of pneumonia , the government just to be sure sent samples to check if it was the human influenza virus and it came back negative, i am not denying that a lot of people with any little flu come in to hospitals to check themselves but that is it,every precaution is been taken just like the cases of cities in the USA about the new york cases it has been said they caught it here,but they also might have caught in on the plane or another airport. but there are still no cases here no confirmed official and i mean who (world helath org), cdc, mexican health official statements etc. Me like a lot of people here and clients and divers are not following so much the media information but the real official info.
Again no disrespect meant but in this matters it is wise to speak being totally informed of this situation. Not just what the media or someone says.
No offense meant let's just clarify information and be well informed please and i am not down playing the situation.

[pilot fish]

Firefyter & Christi, if I'm reading the results of the the flu mortalities correctly, more people have died in Mexico from the swine flu than diving fatalites WORLD WIDE - since the outbreak of this flu. Anyway, as in diving, you take precautions to minimize/avoid risk and you should do the same with regard to this flu outbreak.



All I'm sayin is that some people we know are waaaay more likely to die due to their own mistakes made on a dive trip than they are from the flu, and I think their energies would serve them better trying to rectify that.

I'm just sayin ;)

[pilot fish]

I hate to see an adult cry. Things will eventually get better - they always do. Please read the link below and maybe you will get an idea of why a lot of us are very skeptical of the info coming out of Mexico, especially the hot tourist areas of Mexico. They have a lot of income at stake and PERHAPS that is clouding their reporting/judgment?

Swine flu: wall of silence in Mexico's Cancun holiday resort - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/swine-flu/5245411/Swine-flu-wall-of-silence-in-Mexicos-Cancun-holiday-resort.html)



For crying out loud!

What "increased infection possibilities in Coz" ???

There are NO cases suspected or confirmed of this flu in Cozumel! There IS however a confirmed case in Missouri where I live. There is NO increased infection possibillity IN Cozumel. Maybe in traveling there, but not once there.

There also are NO "Cases in Cancun". Only cases in NY of people that flew out of Cancun. No one in Cancun has been confirmed to be infected. They most likely caught it on the plane from someone making a stop in Cancun on their way from Mexico City to NY.

Did you even bother to read his comparison of staying away from Key West because there are infections in NY????

[pilot fish]

We've noticed. Enough with the Chicken Little routine.

What do you say about this? This is what has a lot of us worried, biased reporting, NO reporting, skewed reporting. All we are saying, is give peace a chance, ooops, that's not what I meant to say.:eyebrow: All we are saying is, take EVERYTHING into consideration.



Swine flu: wall of silence in Mexico's Cancun holiday resort - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/swine-flu/5245411/Swine-flu-wall-of-silence-in-Mexicos-Cancun-holiday-resort.html)

[WOODMAN]

Apropros of nothing in particular, I continue to see various references made to use of face masks as part of your general precautions, and even a few cute pictures of them on statues. The WHO continues to advise their use in certain circumstances, but only as part of a much larger program of preventative measures. They acknowledge that generic face masks have serious fit and leakage problems, and mention usage of N95 respirators as an alternative choice. But, N95's are more difficult to breathe through, and much less likely to be used on a consistent basis due to this. Also, they are much harder to find, I would imagine.
On that note, I noticed that a local news reporter decided to do a fluff piece on face masks, and went out to buy some in the Minneapolis/St. Paul area. Sorry, Charlie! All gone! He went to about 15 various outlets, and although they all said they carried masks, no one had any. Interesting, no? Woody

[Christi]

Firefyter & Christi, if I'm reading the results of the the flu mortalities correctly, more people have died in Mexico from the swine flu than diving fatalites WORLD WIDE - since the outbreak of this flu. Anyway, as in diving, you take precautions to minimize/avoid risk and you should do the same with regard to this flu outbreak.

I don't know what you think the death toll is Pilot - but the confirmed death toll in Mexico from the swine flu as of yesterday was less than 10 ( I say less than 10 because I've heard 7 and I've heard 8). That IS NOT a staggering number. Of those deaths, it is also reported that they suffered from other underlying health issues as well. The flu complicated these existing health issues and/or due to their weakened immune systems, they were unable to fight off anything.

I'm not sure where your comparison with diving comes in there.

As has been posted by others already in this thread overnight, the WHO states that travel cancellations are unnecessary - but to take normal precautions.

[DandyDon]

I don't know what you think the death toll is Pilot - but the confirmed death toll in Mexico from the swine flu as of yesterday was less than 10 ( I say less than 10 because I've heard 7 and I've heard 8).
Your sources limited, or filtered? :confused:

"The flu complicated these existing health issues and/or due to their weakened immune systems, they were unable to fight off anything." Duh, that is always the case. The human body was designed by nature to last around 35 years, the average life span a hundred years ago - so we're always on borrowed time after that anyway.

See Mexico's swine flu death toll at 16 (http://www.etaiwannews.com/etn/news_content.php?id=937126&lang=eng_news&cate_img=316.jpg&cate_rss=news_Health) - which is more about how many were actually tested before burial as well as waiting on time consuming test results on others. Not sure about the reasons more testing wasn't done?

Or Mexico Flu Deaths Rise to 168 (http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=333228&CategoryId=12394)

MEXICO CITY The number of deaths authorities are blaming on MexicoÃÔ swine-flu outbreak stood at 168 on Wednesday morning, though only 20 of those fatalities have been definitively linked to the A/H1N1 virus.

This one would seem more convenient tho: Mexico revises down suspected swine flu deaths (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/may/02/mexico-revises-swineflu-death-toll)

Outbreak may be no worse than seasonal flu, says health minister, with deaths under investigation cut from 176 to 101

Boy, the UK just reved up: TUI, Thomas Cook Cancel Mexican Flights From U.K. (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=aGAnp58Cqooo&refer=uk)
News media took some pics of people who went to the airport without last minute confirming their flights - a mistake I have made at times.

TUI AG and Thomas Cook Group Plc, EuropeÃÔ two largest tour operators, canceled all U.K. flights to Cancun following MexicoÃÔ swine flu outbreak.

TUI said customers of its Thomson and First Choice units will return from Mexico on their scheduled flights and the company wonÃÕ send any more vacationers to the country until May 8. Earlier today, TUI said it would repatriate customers and wouldnÃÕ resume flights to Mexico until the Foreign and Commonwealth Office changed its advice that Britons should avoid all but essential travel to Mexico.

Also from the UK: Swine flu: Mass advertising campaign as ministers step up fight (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/swine-flu/5244796/Swine-flu-Mass-advertising-campaign-as-ministers-step-up-fight.html)

Every household in the country will have a leaflet through the door from next Tuesday onwards also giving information on the disease and what to do in the event of someone showing symptoms.

Also from the UK, this one is wild in a morbid way: Inflatable mortuaries and 'express' funerals planned for flu pandemic (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/swine-flu/5257719/Swine-Flu-Inflatable-mortuaries-and-express-funerals-planned-for-flu-pandemic.html)

"As has been posted by others already in this thread overnight, the WHO states that travel cancellations are unnecessary - but to take normal precautions." What the WHO actually says...
'All of humanity under threat', WHO warns (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/swine-flu/5247242/Swine-flu-All-of-humanity-under-threat-WHO-warns.html)

The Google spotting map was overwhelmed by the increasing amount of data, and was moved to a more scalable mapping/data tracking system provided by Rhiza Labs: FluTracker (http://flutracker.rhizalabs.com/)

Tracking the progress of H1N1 swine flu

This map and the data behind it were compiled by Dr. Henry Niman, a biomedical researcher in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, using technology provided by Rhiza Labs and Google. Dr. Niman has the most comprehensive H1N1 swine flu tracking system on the Web. The map was compiled using data from official sources, news reports and user-contributions.

Rhiza's web-based mapping tool, Insight, is helping Dr. Niman get official and unofficial data into the tracking system faster while giving researchers and the public many options for viewing the data in a useful and understandable way.

Dr.Niman's credentials: Recombinomics | Elegant Evolution (http://www.recombinomics.com/founder.html)

Let me know if any of those links are blocked for you and I'll get the full info.

This 5:40 minute clip from Dr.Niman is quite informative, but the 26:30 minute video offers much, much more. See full length video at: Video (http://www.wpxi.com/video/19313969/index.html)
The trailer...


cg07vDCvdjA

[don Francisco]

One of the problems with the CDC and State department travel advisories is they paint with an overly broad brush. They usually refer to countries an single units without taking size and geography into consideration. I don't know if they're just trying to keep things simple for us poor folk who can't put various cities on a map, or have a policy of keeping things concise and conservative. Either way, it pays to look closer when reading them.

Like the earlier warnings of drug wars and murders, the generalized "do not travel to Mexico" advisory is overly broad. You can bet that folks in California would be screaming if the Europeans issued a travel advisory for all of the USA based on reported H1N1 cases in New York, and Texas.

Based on the documented cases so far in both the USA and Mexico, you're still more likely to encounter H1N1 at an airport here in the USA than in Cozumel itself. It doesn't mean you should ignor advisories, but that you should make specific decisions based on specific information, not vague generalities.

[dive pro]

LATEST REPORT FROM WORLD'S HEALTH ORG., THEY MENTION THE REAL NUMBER OF CASES OF INFECTION, AND DEATHS PER COUNTRY, WE ALSO GOTTA REMEMBER, THERE ARE OVER 100 MILLION MEXICANS THE LAST CENSUS REPORTED 20 MILLION LIVE IN A VERY SMALL CITY (MEXICO CITY), WHO STILL DOES NOT RECOMMEND NOT TO TRAVEL UNLESS YOU ARE ILL. A PERSONAL FRIEND WORKED FOR THE UN'S WHO IN MEXICO CITY AND THEY DO TAKE MATTERS REAL AND SERIOUS.

HERE IS THE LATEST REPORT: AND OF COURSE SOME PEOPLE MAY GET AND FOLLOW "OFFICIAL" INFO FROM MEDIA, NEWS ETC. AS FAR AS MY LIMITED KNOWLEDGE THE WHO ARE THE WORLD WIDE OFFICIAL INFORMATION FOR THIS CASES


Influenza A(H1N1) - update 9
2 May 2009 -- The situation continues to evolve. As of 06:00 GMT, 2 May 2009, 15 countries have officially reported 615 cases of influenza A(H1N1) infection.

Mexico has reported 397 confirmed human cases of infection, including 16 deaths. The 241 rise in cases from Mexico compared to 23:30GMT of 1 May reflects ongoing testing of previously collected specimens. The United States Government has reported 141 laboratory confirmed human cases, including one death.

The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths - Austria (1), Canada (34), China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (1), Denmark (1), France (1), Germany (4), Israel (2), Netherlands (1), New Zealand (4), Republic of Korea (1), Spain (13), Switzerland (1) and the United Kingdom (13).

Further information on the situation will be available on the WHO website on a regular basis.

WHO advises no restriction of regular travel or closure of borders. It is considered prudent for people who are ill to delay international travel and for people developing symptoms following international travel to seek medical attention, in line with guidance from national authorities.

There is also no risk of infection from this virus from consumption of well-cooked pork and pork products. Individuals are advised to wash hands thoroughly with soap and water on a regular basis and should seek medical attention if they develop any symptoms of influenza-like illness.

Related links
Influenza A(H1N1) web site
Daily updates will be posted on this site.

[Mawg]

I don't know what you think the death toll is Pilot - but the confirmed death toll in Mexico from the swine flu as of yesterday was less than 10 (


We should all get down on our knees and thank God that this is not an outbreak of the deadly BURRO FLU. If you've been in a bar in Cozumel and got completely sloshed on tequila and beer and then made a huge JACKASS of yourself and survived, you probably have a dormant case of the BURRO FLU. The symptoms of this malady are tricky. The following morning you feel terrible. You may even hurl and have a horrible headache. This will pass. As months go by , you start to feel paranoid. You're afraid to be alone at night. Even loud noises put you on edge. You shun people and the outdoors in particular. Cant trust them. You find yourself watching TV 18 hours a day. Soon you become convinced that you are the only one who knows the truth.You decide that only you can save the world and you start by speaking out on internet threads. But, they laugh at you and make snide remarks. Not on the thread BUT , you KNOW they are doing it.

Now you are depressed and it is this depression that triggers the final fatal phase of the BURRO FLU. You wait til it's Saturday night. You go to your nearest Sports Bar. It's full of course. You start drinking shots of Jose Quervo and chasing them with Tecate. The Burro rises. You start acting like a Jackass. You eavesdrop on the conversation between the 2 guys standing next to you at the bar. They've just returned from 6 fabulous days of diving in Cozumel and are already planning on going back as soon as possible. You call them idiots and point out to them that hundreds of people have died there in the last hour from the flu. One of them picks up a heavy wooden chair and beats you to death with it. Burro Flu 1 , Dumba$$ 0.

I'll be in Cozumel on May 26th. I will not be wearing a surgical mask. I wouldnt want to hide the huge grin that will constantly be on my face. My first meal will be a Burrito Grande, pork of course.

[MMM]

The reason the Mexican numbers differ now from earlier reports is that the WHO requires very specific tests occur to confirm the virus. In Saskatchewan, our lab is able to rule out the presence of the virus but can only provide a "98% probable" on those not ruled out. For confirmation to meet WHO stds, we need to send to another lab in Winnipeg. There are various labs across the country that could do this in one step. Our "pre-testing" in Sask helps keep the workload down in the other labs but does slow confirmation down by a day or two.

So when the cases broke in Mexico, I expect their labs were swamped due to the sheer volume and they were unable to do, in some cases, the tests WHO requires to enter into the record books as confirmed. You can't do the confirmatory tests on peoplewho have died and been buried. Hence the revised numbers. This does not mean malice on the part of Mexican authorities...simply compliance with testing and reporting protocols. Canada is now assisting Mexico by taking on some of the lab testing of Mexican samples.

PS. By Monday we should have the kits that will enable us to do confirmatory tests in Sask w/o having to send to Winnipeg.

[Prop Joe]

The Sky is falling!!! Oh wait maybe not?
The press blows everything out of proportion. This another example. I Like Mawgs out look. If I could get the time off I would be on a plane down to Cozumel and not even think twice about it. ;)

[jayjoans]

Pilot Fish and DandyDon, I just figured out the fix for all of this.

You two stay home and look for the next killer wave of flu, I'll be out in the field and let you know if I notice any. :D

[DandyDon]

The Sky is falling!!! Oh wait maybe not?
The press blows everything out of proportion.
And - you're not interested in the 26 minute video by a renown doctor in the field either, right...?

Sure the press screw up facts. So nice that we can access CDC, WHO, etc sites - if one bothers to do so.

Pilot Fish and DandyDon, I just figured out the fix for all of this.

You two stay home and look for the next killer wave of flu, I'll be out in the field and let you know if I notice any. :D
Actually I do not have any selfish interest here. I'm over 60, the immune generation. :D

[lamont]

I don't know what you think the death toll is Pilot - but the confirmed death toll in Mexico from the swine flu as of yesterday was less than 10 ( I say less than 10 because I've heard 7 and I've heard 8). That IS NOT a staggering number. Of those deaths, it is also reported that they suffered from other underlying health issues as well. The flu complicated these existing health issues and/or due to their weakened immune systems, they were unable to fight off anything.

I'm not sure where your comparison with diving comes in there.

As has been posted by others already in this thread overnight, the WHO states that travel cancellations are unnecessary - but to take normal precautions.

Confirmed death toll is up to 16 now.

And obviously, 8-9 people didn't just die in the last 24h in mexico, but 8-9 of the suspected cases were confirmed, and there's a long lag time to due to the process of getting the cases laboratory confirmed.

The suspected deaths in Mexico now has been reduced from ~160 down to 101.

...

Also, with 162 confirmed cases in the US and no cytokine storming or dead adults, it is becoming pretty clear that this isn't a 1918-style flu epidemic. Still some precautions to keep the novel virus from spreading in vulnerable communities to give some time for a vaccine to be developed is prudent. There's still a window of about 6 months before a vaccine for this virus is developed and during which it can spread and kill in vulnerable commnities -- and that simply includes children. Go and explain to the parents of the 22-month old child who died in TX that this is just 'normal' influenza so they shouldn't feel bad about it.

There's a balance that needs to be struck between hysteria and practicality, but I have to say that I support some of the school closures around here in order to slow down the spread of the virus and give time for a vaccine to get developed. The kids in those school are most at risk of getting seriously ill, and if we send them home when one of the kids gets sick then we can slow it down, and reduce the numbers, which will reduce the numbers of deaths and give time to for a vaccine to get produced. The logic that becaue the flu normally kills 36,000 people a year that it doesn't matter at all is actually backwards -- because the flu normally kills 36,000 people a year that means that a lot of people are at risk, and if we do something to slow the spread of this virus before a vaccine is developed that means that we save a lot of people -- and only some of those people are the elderly who might just die a couple months later when whatever else they're sick with catches up with them -- some of them are just young children without fully formed immune systems...

[don Francisco]

Absolutely, measured responses and efforts to isolate pockets where this strain is confirmed or even suspected on good evidence are justifiable, intellegent responses to limit the spread of this outbreak.

But that's in stark contrast to the "sky is falling" paranoia which seems to br reflected in some of these posts. It makes sense to take reasonable precautions when travelling, especially divers planning a one week trip because even a cold or mild flu is enough to mess up a dive trip. On the other hand, shifting destinations away from Cozumel isn't likely to make any difference based on the evidence at hand.

I'm not suggesting any course of action, but I do wish that folks wouldn't fan the flames of fear and paranoia based on unwarrantedly pessimistic interpretations of what little data there is.

Based on what's known, as opposed to rumored, Cozumel as a destination is OK with regard to H1N1, but getting there through crowded US airports might be less so.

[DandyDon]

That's fine DF. Some of the "everything is fine" posts have been insulting, and - if we cannot have a free exchange of ideas, opinions, and facts, we may as well tell Pete to shut down the forums.

Cozumel has its own site. Maybe we don't even need then one if only opinions approved by locals are allowed here...?

[Prop Joe]

And - you're not interested in the 26 minute video by a renown doctor in the field either, right...?

Nope.

Sure the press screw up facts. So nice that we can access CDC, WHO, etc sites - if one bothers to do so.

Actually I do not have any selfish interest here. I'm over 60, the immune generation. :D

Don, No insult intended BTW. I work in the aviation field where the press gives out so much miss information about many things, accidents, airplane types, noises, flames, eyewitness accounts, etc... It has made me ignore many things the press reports on. Just my jaded view of the situation. I would rather draw up my own conclusions from my own sources of information. Like you said above... CDC, WHO, or even my own personal doctor...
I just don't like what the general press chooses to broadcast. That is just me.
I would still go to Cozumel if I could get the time off of work.

[DandyDon]

And I'm sure some will say they know more than him...

Henry L Niman earned a PhD at the University of Southern California in 1978. His dissertation focused on feline retroviral expression in tumors in domestic cats.

He took a postdoctoral position at Scripps Clinic and Research Foundation where he developed monoclonal antibody technology. He fused monoclonal antibody and synthetic peptide technologies and accepted a staff position at Scripps.

In 1982, he developed the flu monoclonal antibody, which is widely used throughout the pharmaceutical, biotech, and research industries in epitope tagging techniques. He also produced a broad panel of monoclonal antibodies against synthetic peptides of oncogenes and growth factors. These monoclonal antibodies were distributed worldwide to researchers by the National Cancer Institute. The antibodies identified novel related proteins which correlated with clinical parameters.

This technology was used to form ProgenX, a cancer diagnostic company that became Ligand Pharmaceuticals. Dr Niman subsequently identified protein expression patterns at the University of Pittsburgh. More recently, he became interested in infectious diseases while at Harvard Medical School. He then founded Recombinomics and discovered how viruses rapidly evolve. These latest findings are the subject of recent patent filings.

[pilot fish]

I don't know what you think the death toll is Pilot - but the confirmed death toll in Mexico from the swine flu as of yesterday was less than 10 ( I say less than 10 because I've heard 7 and I've heard 8). That IS NOT a staggering number. Of those deaths, it is also reported that they suffered from other underlying health issues as well. The flu complicated these existing health issues and/or due to their weakened immune systems, they were unable to fight off anything.

I'm not going to play the " my info is better than yours" thing. It gets us no where. The reported death toll in Mexico is 16, last I checked, and rising. We don't want to see anymore, I'm sure you feel the same way?

As I pointed out to firefyter, when he posted the silly statement that more people would probably die from dive accidents than the swine flu.:shakehead: I was showing how totally inaccurate that was. I'm sure you will agree, Christi, that 16 divers have not died WORLD WIDE since this flu emerged in Mexico? Let me also correct one unintentional misstatement of yours, it is not ONLY immune deficient people but YOUNG HEALTHY people that have died from this flu around the World. THAT is what has most people worried.



some people we know are waaaay more likely to die due to their own mistakes made on a dive trip than they are from the flu, - firefyter


I'm not sure where your comparison with diving comes in there.

As has been posted by others already in this thread overnight, the WHO states that travel cancellations are unnecessary - but to take normal precautions.

Really? My comparison comes from the statement by the person you thanked for saying, more people would probably die of dive accidents than this swine flu.:shocked2: First, that is not a bright comparison, and it is TOTALLY INACCURATE.

But since your buddy brought it up, I think it is valid, in that, we practice caution in our risky sport. WE SHOULD DO THE SAME THING REGARDING THIS SWINE FLU OUTBREAK. Do we agree on that much?

[pilot fish]

Don, this is looking more amd more like a waste of time trying to advice Coz divers to proceed with caution regarding this swine flu outbreak in Mexico. The Coz dive industry, and it's staff, are content to tell thier fellow divers to " disregard the flu hype, the flu hysteria" and, come on down and dive:shakehead:



And I'm sure some will say they know more than him...

[Firefyter]

As I pointed out to firefyter, when he posted the silly statement that more people would probably die from dive accidents than the swine flu.:shakehead: I was showing how totally inaccurate that was. I'm sure you will agree, Christi, that 16 divers have not died WORLD WIDE since this flu emerged in Mexico?

That's not what I said at all. Go back, read it again, and try to comprehend what I said. I agree, if I had made that statement, it would be very silly. I'm starting to see why you're always in arguments. :shakehead:

[lamont]

Really? My comparison comes from the statement by the person you thanked for saying, more people would probably die of dive accidents than this swine flu.:shocked2: First, that is not a bright comparison, and it is TOTALLY INACCURATE.


It may be accurate that of the diving population that they're more at risk of dive accidents than influenza. But divers typically have healthy immune systems and are 12+ years old.

[Firefyter]

Really? My comparison comes from the statement by the person you thanked for saying, more people would probably die of dive accidents than this swine flu.:shocked2: First, that is not a bright comparison, and it is TOTALLY INACCURATE.



Again, that's not the comparison that was made at all. Therefore, your statement is not a very bright one and it is TOTALLY INACCURATE.

[DandyDon]

Don, this is looking more amd more like a waste of time trying to advice Coz divers to proceed with caution regarding this swine flu outbreak in Mexico. The Coz dive industry, and it's staff, are content to tell thier fellow divers to " disregard the flu hype, the flu hysteria" and, come on down and dive:shakehead:
Everyone can do what they want to; none of my business.

But please do not ask me to believe the rosy reports from the government there; we kinda know how they run. Or ask the locals here how honest they are overall...?

[pilot fish]

"some people we know are waaaay more likely to die due to their own mistakes made on a dive trip than they are from the flu, - firefyter " firefyter Your words.:shakehead:



That's not what I said at all. Go back, read it again, and try to comprehend what I said. I agree, if I had made that statement, it would be very silly. I'm starting to see why you're always in arguments. :shakehead:

[pilot fish]

some people we know are waaaay more likely to die due to their own mistakes made on a dive trip than they are from the flu, - firefyter

Again, your words. Here you are comparing dive accidents, accidental diver deaths, to flu deaths. You might want to read your own posts FF:eyebrow:




Again, that's not the comparison that was made at all. Therefore, your statement is not a very bright one and it is TOTALLY INACCURATE.

[pilot fish]

I agree.

Now they are trying to rewrite their posts,:rofl3: [that's what they SAID, but this is what they MEANT. like VP Biden, huh? ], to say something other than what they actually said. Like you said, they all can do as they please. None of my business. I'll leave them with their BOTTOM LINE MORALITY:shakehead:



Everyone can do what they want to; none of my business.

But please do not ask me to believe the rosy reports from the government there; we kinda know how they run. Or ask the locals here how honest they are overall...?

[Firefyter]

some people we know are waaaay more likely to die due to their own mistakes made on a dive trip than they are from the fluAgain, your words. Here you are comparing dive accidents, accidental diver deaths, to flu deaths. You might want to read your own posts FF:eyebrow:

I didn't have to read them, I wrote them. You interpreted it to say:


As I pointed out to firefyter, when he posted the silly statement that more people would probably die from dive accidents than the swine flu.

If you can't see the difference in those two statements, I can't help you. After this exchange, I totally understand why most people on this board discount everything you say. Your interpretation of everything you read is highly suspect, therefore most of your arguments are baseless. I'm through with this, you just made one more in a long line of ignore lists.....

[sailldy67]

How about a little perspective....109,000,000 people live in Mexico...2500 sick...160 deaths...not like these are huge percentages. How many people in the US have a cold or the flu right now? Should we shut down the borders? Cancel all incoming flights? Cancel cruises? In an average year 36,000 people die from one strain of flu or another. Just use some common sense, wash your hands regularily, keep them out of your mouth, don't sneeze or cough all over everyone and if you are sick, stay home.

[dive pro]

don, this is looking more amd more like a waste of time trying to advice coz divers to proceed with caution regarding this swine flu outbreak in mexico. The coz dive industry, and it's staff, are content to tell thier fellow divers to " disregard the flu hype, the flu hysteria" and, come on down and dive:shakehead:


first of all i have not read any posts from any cozumel operators or staff say the words disregard you may interpret whatever you want, i am a cancun operator and want people to know not my facts or yours, but who facts, i really don't care for doctors that expose this or that about whatever, like in a trial both lawyer and public defender bring doctors to assure or deny cientifically. Nor do i care about the telegraph or whatever newspaper news media of any kind.
I obviously do not want to have our repeat clients that we depend on that a lot to come here and get infected and die, first of all i appreciate and care for them, second at our dive shop many families depend on them and i have witnessed on this board people like christi providing real information on hurricanes or storms, for people to postpone their trips, i have done the same, so we are not saying anything but keep informed, get real information and take desitions, that is it, no one has down played the situation at all, and no one has said disregard, i have posted official info, if it is your case that the telegraph or cnn or whatever news paper website blogs etc. You base your info on then that is your right and to share it as well, myself i prefer official information and i do not think the united nations would lie or tell people it is ok to travel or is it part of a huge international plot???
We dove all day today in cancun had awesome dives, our divers new and longtime clients are not shaking hands, we have a hand sanitizer available as well but there are people here, still 00 cases in this state and that is the truth, a lot may say whatever you want even i agree on how bad the mexican gvmt can be, but in this matters i don't think so.
If it is your choice not to come here then stay home well but there are many places now in the world with this, and from my limited knowledge from a surgeon and specialist on respiratory illnesses and part of the mexican health commitee, this illness does have a cure if attended on time, some have died because of complications with other illnesses.
Everyone has a right to their opinion and post here but don't you start getting confused on at least my posts that come from official information, that may be downplayed by you. I do not want my divers to get sick, but i want them to know the facts so they take wise desitions some people cannot take any other time off. I also know for a fact that us and christi would rather cancel a dive than put anyone at risk, because we depend on them to make a living. And now for you to know my personal opinion, this is being blown out of proportion, and like in diving if you follow guidelines you will be ok if you do not then you have a problem, unfortunately here some people follow guidelines from media news feeding frenzy than real official information.
The truth is i am here now, christi is in coz now and we are diving and we have not heard of a friend or a family member of a friend or anyone getting it, yes the federal govmt is taking actions and closing down places where there are big concentrations of people, and some cruises avoided cozumel, that is taking precautions.
Again dive operations on this forum are not using the words disregard no matter what you think. My recommendation to you, get certified, come diving after the flu, be well and be well informed.

[dive pro]

Again world health organization
17 total deaths 16 not 160 it is sixteen in mexico 1 in usa
not my numbers, not the media numbers.....real numbers according to who and when who says do not come to cancun i will post it as well.

[MMM]

To be clear, the lower numbers of 16 or 17 dead or whatever, reflect those tests having met WHO confirmation requirements. It is likely that some of the initial 160 (or whatever) dead would have been positive had proper tests been concluded....but how many one can only guess now. Testing the dead likely has a lower priority (assuming there are samples) than the living. I'm still planning to come in June as per my air booking...as per WHO's view that the virus is now world-wide and cannot be geographically contained.

[charlieo]

Well since no one trust the locals I guess I'm going to have to go to Cozumel and check this out for myself. Interview dive operators and divemasters. Sample the local food, beer and wine. Might take a week. See you at Casa Del Mar tomorrow.

[laolaoceanadventures]

Well, I live here in Mexico and I don't know anyone with the flu, nor have I got the flu. This is what happens when there are no checks and balances with the media. They can say anything and not be held accountable...it must be true if the guy on CNN says so...lol.

[DandyDon]

How about a little perspective....109,000,000 people live in Mexico...2500 sick...160 deaths...not like these are huge percentages. How many people in the US have a cold or the flu right now? Should we shut down the borders? Cancel all incoming flights? Cancel cruises? In an average year 36,000 people die from one strain of flu or another. Just use some common sense, wash your hands regularily, keep them out of your mouth, don't sneeze or cough all over everyone and if you are sick, stay home.
Hi Sallldy, nice to see you post again. Welcome to a silly free for all. I don't think anyone has suggested closing borders or airports, but the cruise ship dilemma is indeed different. There are plenty of stories available about what can happen when a usually benign infection runs rampant on a confined boat - something those barge owners reasonably want to prevent in their pod people - except this is indeed different.

Mexico has but a vague idea of the numbers it seems. The official tested & confirmed count is up: Mexico Swine Flu Death Toll Rises To 19 (http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/05/02/health/main4986753.shtml)

Mexico Swine Flu Death Toll Rises To 19

Mexico's health secretary says the number of confirmed swine flu cases has risen to 473, including 19 people who died.

While the official reasonably suspected death count is down: Mexico lowers swine flu death toll (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/8031020.stm)

The number of suspected deaths from swine flu in Mexico has been cut by 75 to 101, indicating the outbreak may not be as bad as initially feared.

It's still a little worrisome that 19 of 473 or 101 of 2500 are both 4% death rates - which may sound like a small number unless you're one of the 4%. Really, Mexico doesn't seem to know what the numbers are. A 4% death rate is twice as high as with seasonal flu, but if real numbers are to come forward - we hope for lower rates. It's just not reasonable to include the national population of 110 million as they're still assessing damages from the hottest outbreaks.

But there are significant reasons why this has not been like typical seasonal flu outbreaks...

In a seasonal flu season, the highest mortalities are in the ages under 4 and over 60 groups, but with a pandemic like in 1918 you see a startling loss rate in the 20-40 ages - uh, like we're seeing in this Phase 5 pandemic. Others have tried to downplay this as no worse than seasonal flu, but the claims failed for lack of facts...

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/7/70/W_curve.png

And while you may not have read thru all the posts here, some have enjoyed the freedom to call me a fear monger, thinking it silly for me to predict deadlier second and third waves yet to come from this but I didn't make that up. Just referencing what real & accomplished experts with a lot more proven experience than anyone in this thread have pointed out - like in 1918, for which the best records that can be found show a surge in June, followed by more tremendous losses in the fall and then in late winter...

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/9a/1918_spanish_flu_waves.gif


"Those who don't know history are destined to repeat it." Edmund Burke

The 1918 pandemic was erroneously labeled the Spanish Flu as best research findings really point to a specie cross over in an Army Fort in Kansas where soldiers raised some of their own in the livestock there then. Experts are still debating whether it was a bird & swine combo or jumped directly from birds to humans, without traveling through swine, a debate that may live on and on.

Lamont has mentioned the cytokine storm a few times and possibly readers who aren't here to learn have skipped over that without looking into what it is, but it's kinda like a healthy body killing itself as an overreaction, a little like my body mistakes pollen for pathogens as happens with us hay fever suffers...

An effort to recreate the 1918 flu strain (a subtype of avian strain H1N1) was a collaboration among the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology, Southeast Poultry Research Laboratory and Mount Sinai School of Medicine in New York; the effort resulted in the announcement on October 5, 2005 that the group had successfully determined the virus's genetic sequence, using historic tissue samples recovered by pathologist Johan Hultin from a female flu victim buried in the Alaskan permafrost and samples preserved from American soldiers.

On January 18, 2007, Kobasa et al. reported that monkeys (Macaca fascicularis) infected with the recreated strain exhibited classic symptoms of the 1918 pandemic and died from a cytokine storm an overreaction of the immune system. This may explain why the 1918 flu had its surprising effect on younger, healthier people, as a person with a stronger immune system would potentially have a stronger overreaction.

You see, if a young, healthy adult treats this like seasonal flu and calls in sick for a few days, his/her own body can self destruct. More here: Cytokine Storm and the H5N1 Influenza Pandemic: The Bird Flu (http://www.cytokinestorm.com)


Well, I live here in Mexico and I don't know anyone with the flu, nor have I got the flu. This is what happens when there are no checks and balances with the media. They can say anything and not be held accountable...it must be true if the guy on CNN says so...lol.
Sorry, that's false science. If we were to base our plans to fight a phase 5 pandemic on your personal experiences and the few hundred people you personally know - we're doomed. :shocked2:

[firstdive2005]

Yeehaa, yippee, alright I can breathe and lift things. My body is done aching, I'm over my swine flu. Now all I need is for the STUPID AIRLINES TO LET ME GO TO COZUMEL. I dont want to land in the states, so I need direct flights and they are all shut down now. O by the way I know and it is confirmed I had the swine flu. My wife diagnosed me as she said she knows first hand that when I was a young man trolling the bars I was known as a swine.:rofl3: It was just the ordinary flu, you know the one that kills a whole lot more people than this current one so far at least. Pandemic smandemic the word alone excites people, it sounds like panic. Then they call it Alert level five. O boy sound like terrorists are here. Dont you just love political correctness. Yawn.

[dive pro]

Yeehaa, yippee, alright I can breathe and lift things. My body is done aching, I'm over my swine flu. Now all I need is for the STUPID AIRLINES TO LET ME GO TO COZUMEL. I dont want to land in the states, so I need direct flights and they are all shut down now. O by the way I know and it is confirmed I had the swine flu. My wife diagnosed me as she said she knows first hand that when I was a young man trolling the bars I was known as a swine.:rofl3: It was just the ordinary flu, you know the one that kills a whole lot more people than this current one so far at least. Pandemic smandemic the word alone excites people, it sounds like panic. Then they call it Alert level five. O boy sound like terrorists are here. Dont you just love political correctness. Yawn.

Hola, I am so glad you are feeling better :D but still take care of yourself. I hope you finally got to leave the basement......

[lamont]

Lamont has mentioned the cytokine storm a few times and possibly readers who aren't here to learn have skipped over that without looking into what it is, but it's kinda like a healthy body killing itself as an overreaction, a little like my body mistakes pollen for pathogens as happens with us hay fever suffers...


Its looking like genetically the influenza genes that are believed to be linked to cytokine storming in the 1918 strain and in the H5N1 avian flu are, in this swine flu, not substantially different from normal human influenza versions. Its looking like this isn't any more likely to evolve into 1918-level of lethality than the risk of any other flu virus that travels in human picking up more lethal genes. Still nothing stopping this from being more run-of-the-mill-pandemic, so it bears watching, but the 1918-alert level can probably be ratcheted back down (although nobody still understands what was going on with the stats and claims coming out of Mexico initially).

[firstdive2005]

Hola, I am so glad you are feeling better :D but still take care of yourself. I hope you finally got to leave the basement......

Thank-you, thats very kind. I was outside having a yard-sale and doing the lawn work today. Managed to make almost five hundred dollars getting rid of junk. Yey mad dive money. I was nice to be in the sun, it was very hot today 19c. The best part was being out of the basement.:D

[DandyDon]

Glad you're feeling better FD. I still don't think much of your quarantine choice, but I haven't seen your basement. Maybe it's warm, cozy, and well ventilated. Mine is just a tornado shelter, and I've not used one in 40 years so I haven't done anything but stock it with basics.

Hope you get to dive soon. [-]I can help you find flights if you'll change your mind about the US connection.[/-]

Hey! Mexicana flies from there to Mexico City to Cancun. :D

[firstdive2005]

Thanks DD. Yes it is quite cozy down there. It was remodelled for our daughters to have their friends over. So fire place, big comfy couch, tv. I get sent here alot.
I cant land in the US. I got caught as a kid with herb. One time mistake, lifetime issue. I am dual citizen as my dad was American. I just have to do the paperwork then I can land. As such right now because I have no other issues they gov. will let me in for five hudred dollars a shot. I just dont like that idea.

[MMM]

Don, this is likely an incorrect statement. The Mexican gov't likely has an idea of the suspect cases but is not reporting due to national protocols. It has been agreed world-wide that no confirmations will be used unless they have met the WHO test standards - which have not been met in older cases. See my earlier post and Canada's plans to help in this regard.

In my province we were initially posting suspect cases but have since decided to fall into international standards and report only confirmed which meet WHO standards. Since it is the epicenter, in Mexico, there are likely many more positives that are past history but have not been/cannot be confirmed due to the passage of time and changing protocols re reporting. None of this changes my mind about travel to Cozumel due to WHO position on travel restrictions (not withstanding what Canada has recommended).



Mexico has but a vague idea of the numbers it seems. The official tested & confirmed count is up: Mexico Swine Flu Death Toll Rises To 19 (http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/05/02/health/main4986753.shtml)
[/URL]


:

[DandyDon]

I get sent here alot.

:lol:

I cant land in the US. I got caught as a kid with herb. One time mistake, lifetime issue. I am dual citizen as my dad was American. I just have to do the paperwork then I can land. As such right now because I have no other issues they gov. will let me in for five hudred dollars a shot. I just dont like that idea.
Wow! Yeah, I saw a Canadian diver quizzed in a 1,000 Islands check where you have to go thru Immigration to dive the US side. He forgot about being busted as a kid, but the officer knew from his record - and threaten to lock him up until he admitted whatever he hadn't. He remembered.

I edited my post that Mexicana flies from there to Mexico City to Cancun.


58787

[pilot fish]

I didn't have to read them, I wrote them. You interpreted it to say:

I know you wrote them, and at one point must have read them, but you don't seem to comprehend what your words mean.


If you can't see the difference in those two statements, I can't help you. After this exchange, I totally understand why most people on this board discount everything you say. Your interpretation of everything you read is highly suspect,

:rofl3:This is the type of thing catty High School freshman girls might say.:eyebrow:



therefore most of your arguments are baseless. I'm through with this, you just made one more in a long line of ignore lists.....

hey, fyter, that works for me:doh2:

[pilot fish]

I said, local Coz and Cancun dive ops have said, DISREGARD THE FLU HYPE AND HYSTERIA, not disregard the flu.

The CDC and other agencies have said, postpone any non essential trips to Mexico. I pay attention to that. Since you are ALREADY THERE the advice is different. Be well and stay healthy, Miguel




first of all i have not read any posts from any cozumel operators or staff say the words disregard you may interpret whatever you want, i am a cancun operator and want people to know not my facts or yours, but who facts, i really don't care for doctors that expose this or that about whatever, like in a trial both lawyer and public defender bring doctors to assure or deny cientifically. Nor do i care about the telegraph or whatever newspaper news media of any kind.
I obviously do not want to have our repeat clients that we depend on that a lot to come here and get infected and die, first of all i appreciate and care for them, second at our dive shop many families depend on them and i have witnessed on this board people like christi providing real information on hurricanes or storms, for people to postpone their trips, i have done the same, so we are not saying anything but keep informed, get real information and take desitions, that is it, no one has down played the situation at all, and no one has said disregard, i have posted official info, if it is your case that the telegraph or cnn or whatever news paper website blogs etc. You base your info on then that is your right and to share it as well, myself i prefer official information and i do not think the united nations would lie or tell people it is ok to travel or is it part of a huge international plot???
We dove all day today in cancun had awesome dives, our divers new and longtime clients are not shaking hands, we have a hand sanitizer available as well but there are people here, still 00 cases in this state and that is the truth, a lot may say whatever you want even i agree on how bad the mexican gvmt can be, but in this matters i don't think so.
If it is your choice not to come here then stay home well but there are many places now in the world with this, and from my limited knowledge from a surgeon and specialist on respiratory illnesses and part of the mexican health commitee, this illness does have a cure if attended on time, some have died because of complications with other illnesses.
Everyone has a right to their opinion and post here but don't you start getting confused on at least my posts that come from official information, that may be downplayed by you. I do not want my divers to get sick, but i want them to know the facts so they take wise desitions some people cannot take any other time off. I also know for a fact that us and christi would rather cancel a dive than put anyone at risk, because we depend on them to make a living. And now for you to know my personal opinion, this is being blown out of proportion, and like in diving if you follow guidelines you will be ok if you do not then you have a problem, unfortunately here some people follow guidelines from media news feeding frenzy than real official information.
The truth is i am here now, christi is in coz now and we are diving and we have not heard of a friend or a family member of a friend or anyone getting it, yes the federal govmt is taking actions and closing down places where there are big concentrations of people, and some cruises avoided cozumel, that is taking precautions.
Again dive operations on this forum are not using the words disregard no matter what you think. My recommendation to you, get certified, come diving after the flu, be well and be well informed.

[pilot fish]

I guess it comes down to this, whom are you going to listen to, CDC, WHO and other World Health Org, or local dive ops and staff? The advice, cautions and general information from World Health Org come from doctors and people trained in the medical field, that have NO vested interest, pro or con, in the advice provided and that know fully what a pandemic is, and is not. On the other hand we have local people from Coz and Cancum that are providing anecdotal info, that have NO medical training whatever and view the advice and directives from World Health Org as HYPE AND HYSTERIA. World Health Org have advised postponing any non essential travel to Mexico. Why do you suppose they are doing that? Your choice of who to listen to. Be well everyone.

BTW, does anyone think there is a correlation between the number of cases of swine flu in the USA and our border with the flu's epicenter, Mexico? " The World Health Organization said Friday that the number of confirmed cases stood at 367 worldwide, including 141 in the United States and 156 in Mexico. Thirteen countries have confirmed cases, the organization said. "

[pilot fish]

"The Mexican government asked the CDC to help facilitate laboratory testing of the virus during a conference call with Canada and the United States, he said. "We don't go anywhere unilaterally. We don't go into any state unless asked," Crafton said. "So if the state health department or the state health director or the government feels like their capacity is exceeded or they need us for our scientific expertise, they will ask us to come. The U.S. has also committed to giving Mexico 400,000 doses of the antiviral drug Tamiflu, a shipment believed to have arrived Friday morning, said Dr. Anne Schuchat, interim deputy director for science and public health at the CDC."

[dive pro]

TO PILOT FISH: ALTHOUGH I AM NOT A DOCTOR, A FAMILY MEMBER IS A DOCTOR, A SURGEON A SPECIALIST ON RESPIRATORY AND LUNG DISEASES AND PART OF THE MEXICAN HEALTH COMITEE, THAT IS THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT. IN ANY CASE, WE ARE NOT GETTING THAT MANY CANCELATIONS ANYMORE, SOME OF THE ALREADY CANCELLED TRIPS, SHOWED UP SO PEOPLE ARE STILL COMING NO MATTER WHAT YOU THINK OR SAY OR TWIST, AND AGAIN HERE IT GOES MAYBE YOU DO NOT READ THE LATEST INFORMATION THIS IS THE MAY 2ND REPORT FROM THE WORLD'S HEALTH ORGANIZATION PLEASE READ THE RED BOLD LETTERS I DO NOT SEE THERE ANYTHING RESTRICTING TRAVELING OR SUGGESTING NON TRAVELING, NOW AGAIN LIKE I SAID TO YOU BEFORE WE ARE NOT DOWN PLAYING ANYTHING, YOU SEEM TO GET IN ARGUMENTS A LOT AND YOU ARE NOT EVEN CERTIFIED, I AM NOT A PHYSICIAN BUT I AM A PARAMEDIC A SCUBA INSTRUCTOR WITH 3 AGENCIES WITH OVER 6000 DIVES, THIS BOARD IS OPEN TO ANYONE WHO WANTS TO POST AND YOU POSTED A REAL LOT I GUESS WHILE YOU POST SO MUCH AND GET INTO ARGUMENTS WITH DIVERS I AM DIVING, I AM NOT GONNA PLAY GAMES WITH YOU, IF YOU FEEL THAT WAY STAY HOME, I JUST HOPE YOU NEVER HAVE ANY PROBLEM LIKE THIS AFFECT YOUR BUSINESS OR YOUR PLACE OF WORK......WHEN A HURRICANE CAME AND KILLED US WE TOLD PEOPLE TO LEAVE AND NOT TO COME WE ADVICE OUR DIVERS WELL SO DO NOT DARE TWIST ANYTHING AND LIKE SOMEONE ELSE ON THIS BOARD AND THREAD HAS TOLD YOU, YOU ARE JUST ONE MORE IN THE IGNORE LIST, YOU SEEM TO HAVE A PROBLEM I HOPE YOU ARE WELL, STAY HOME DO NOT EVER COME TO OUR COUNTRY, THERE ARE MANY OTHER ILLNESSES AROUND, THERE ARE NARC KILLINGS, THERE IS A VERY CORRUPT GVMT SO DO NOT COME.
THIS IS MY LAST POST ADDRESSING YOU I WOULD APPRECIATE IF YOU DID NOT ADDRESS ME ANYMORE.....AND STOP TWISTING THINGS.
I DON'T GET YOU, YOU STATE THAT THE WHO SAID NO TRAVELING AND WHO WWW.WHO.INT SAYS A COMPLETE DIFFERENT THING ON TODAY'S AND YESTERDAYS REPORT SO I REALLY DON'T KNOW WHAT TO THINK OF YOU AT THIS POINT YOU QUOTE THE WHO BUT HERE IS THE PAGE, LINK AND EVEN THE WHO UPDATE 10 FROM YESTERDAY AND MY FOLLOWING POST WILL HAVE THE LATEST WHO UPDATE FOR TODAY.
HOW DO YOU KNOW SCUBA OPERATORS ARE NOT DOCTORS WHEN YOU ARE NOT EVEN A DIVER, I KNOW A FEW DOCTORS THAT HAVE INVESTED IN SCUBA OPERATIONS AND ONE OF THEM IS A DOCTOR AND OWNS A DIVE SHOP SO STOP ASSUMING THINGS, AND LIKE I SAID NO MORE ADDRESSING BETWEEN US, I REALLY DON'T EVEN THINK YOU MAKE SENSE, ALTHOUGH I WISH YOU WELL, HAVE A GREAT LIFE, AND I REALLY RECOMMEND GETTING SCUBA CERTIFICATION.

printable version

Influenza A(H1N1) - update 10
2 May 2009 -- The situation continues to evolve. As of 18:00 GMT+1, 2 May 2009, 16 countries have officially reported 658 cases of influenza A(H1N1) infection.

Mexico has reported 397 confirmed human cases of infection, including 16 deaths. The higher number of cases from Mexico in the past 48 hours reflects ongoing testing of previously collected specimens. The United States Government has reported 160 laboratory confirmed human cases, including one death.

The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths - Austria (1), Canada (51), China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (1), Costa Rica (1), Denmark (1), France (2), Germany (6), Israel (3), Netherlands (1), New Zealand (4), Republic of Korea (1), Spain (13), Switzerland (1) and the United Kingdom (15).

Further information on the situation will be available on the WHO website on a regular basis.

WHO advises no restriction of regular travel or closure of borders. It is considered prudent for people who are ill to delay international travel and for people developing symptoms following international travel to seek medical attention, in line with guidance from national authorities.

There is also no risk of infection from this virus from consumption of well-cooked pork and pork products. Individuals are advised to wash hands thoroughly with soap and water on a regular basis and should seek medical attention if they develop any symptoms of influenza-like illness.

Related links
Influenza A(H1N1) web site

[dive pro]

TODAY'S MAY 3RD WORLD HEALTH ORG REPORT FOR EVERYONE:

Influenza A(H1N1) - update 11
3 May 2009 -- As of 0600 GMT, 3 May 2009, 17 countries have officially reported 787 cases of influenza A(H1N1) infection.

Mexico has reported 506 confirmed human cases of infection, including 19 deaths. The higher number of cases from Mexico in the past 48 hours reflects ongoing testing of previously collected specimens. The United States Government has reported 160 laboratory confirmed human cases, including one death.

The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths - Austria (1), Canada (70), China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (1), Costa Rica (1), Denmark (1), France (2), Germany (6), Ireland (1), Israel (3), Netherlands (1), New Zealand (4), Republic of Korea (1), Spain (13), Switzerland (1) and the United Kingdom (15).

Further information on the situation will be available on the WHO website on a regular basis.

WHO advises no restriction of regular travel or closure of borders. It is considered prudent for people who are ill to delay international travel and for people developing symptoms following international travel to seek medical attention, in line with guidance from national authorities.

Canada on 2 May reported the identification of the A(H1N1) virus in a swine herd in Alberta. It is highly probable that the pigs were exposed to the virus from a Canadian farm worker recently returned from Mexico, who had exhibited flu-like symptoms and had contact with the pigs. There is no indication of virus adaptation through transfer from human to pigs at this time.

There is no risk of infection from this virus from consumption of well-cooked pork and pork products.

Individuals are advised to wash hands thoroughly with soap and water on a regular basis and should seek medical attention if they develop any symptoms of influenza-like illness.

Related links
Influenza A(H1N1) web site

[dive pro]

To be fair, the cdc center did issue a report saying avoid non essential travel to mexico, this was the 30th of april, but on their webpage they also state to follow all reports and updates from the world health organization from the united nations, those updates are the ones i have posted on this board, we down here are still working, like i posted before, we have hand sanitizer, the ocean does not trasnsmit it, we still have 00 cases and there is no huge panic here, arqueological zones and theme parks have been closed due to the gathering of so many people, so if you come to cancun to vacation and see the sights, do not come, if you are a diver i am not going to give you any advice, just follow your own desitions but be well informed.
And by the way a Respiratory,lung Doctor confirms and says this virus has less lifetime in this hot areas......IF IT REMOTELY CAME HERE AND IT HAS NOT.
I refuse to post all the news papers from Mexico and this city stating 000 casis( in the state of Quintana Roo, Yucantan and Campeche, the tri state Yucatan Peninsula), because I also refuse to base my info on CNN or BBC or any other international news agency.

[CRC]

Check the discussion section on Cozumel My Cozumel: A Reliable Travel Resource (http://www.cozumelmycozumel.com) - there is ongoing dscussion on a couple of threads concerning what's open and what's not. Sounds like mostly cruise ship oriented businesses are affected right now.

Enjoy your trip. It should be a great time to be down there!

[pilot fish]

Miguel, here is some up to date info you might find helpful. Please get the latest facts before you post.


Travel Health Warning
Travel Warning: H1N1 Flu (Swine Flu) and Severe Cases of Respiratory Illness in Mexico Avoid Nonessential Travel to Mexico
This information is current as of today, May 03, 2009 at 11:39 EDT
Updated: April 30, 2009

Revised to link to updated antiviral recommendations for travelers

Current Situation
As of April 28, 2009, the Government of Mexico has reported 26 confirmed human cases of H1N1 flu (swine flu), including seven deaths. Investigation is continuing to clarify the spread and severity of the disease in Mexico. The World Health Organization (WHO), the Global Alert and Response Network (GOARN), and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have sent experts to Mexico to work with health authorities. CDC has confirmed that seven of 14 respiratory specimens sent to CDC by the Mexican National Influenza Center are positive for influenza A (H1N1) and are similar to the swine influenza viruses recently identified in the United States.

On April 25, the WHO Director-General declared this event a Public Health Emergency of International Concern under the rules of the International Health Regulations. CDC and state public and animal health authorities are currently investigating the outbreak in the United States. Click here to see todayÃÔ case count. Some of the U.S. cases have been linked to travel to Mexico. CDC is concerned that continued travel by U.S. travelers to Mexico presents a serious risk for their health and the health of others during travel and after they return to the United States.

CDC Recommendations
At this time, CDC recommends that U.S. travelers avoid all nonessential travel to Mexico. Changes to this recommendation will be posted at Travelers' Health | CDC (http://wwwn.cdc.gov/travel/). Please check this site frequently for updates.

Side Note = To be fair, I fully realize that Cancun and Coz are not exactly the information centers of the World and that you guys are a little removed from the "Information highway". I also wanted to add that all of us that advise extra caution and that take this flu thing more seriously, realize none of you mean any harm to anyone. We just think that some of your financial consideration might be clouding your better judgement.






To be fair, the cdc center did issue a report saying avoid non essential travel to mexico, this was the 30th of april, but on their webpage they also state to follow all reports and updates from the world health organization from the united nations, those updates are the ones i have posted on this board, we down here are still working, like i posted before, we have hand sanitizer, the ocean does not trasnsmit it, we still have 00 cases and there is no huge panic here, arqueological zones and theme parks have been closed due to the gathering of so many people, so if you come to cancun to vacation and see the sights, do not come, if you are a diver i am not going to give you any advice, just follow your own desitions but be well informed.

[mobeeno]

Jawfish is not being sarcastic.
I just got back from diving Cozumel and as a diver it was great because the boats I was on was quieter than usual and can request pretty much where I would like to dive. Wish I am there now.

[pilot fish]

Here is the latest health advisory. This is just for your consideration, not advice, either way. Incidently, there are some threads in the Coz section on this topic, what is open, what is closed, etc.


Travel Health Warning
Travel Warning: H1N1 Flu (Swine Flu) and Severe Cases of Respiratory Illness in Mexico Avoid Nonessential Travel to Mexico
This information is current as of today, May 03, 2009 at 11:39 EDT
Updated: April 30, 2009

Revised to link to updated antiviral recommendations for travelers

Current Situation
As of April 28, 2009, the Government of Mexico has reported 26 confirmed human cases of H1N1 flu (swine flu), including seven deaths. Investigation is continuing to clarify the spread and severity of the disease in Mexico. The World Health Organization (WHO), the Global Alert and Response Network (GOARN), and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have sent experts to Mexico to work with health authorities. CDC has confirmed that seven of 14 respiratory specimens sent to CDC by the Mexican National Influenza Center are positive for influenza A (H1N1) and are similar to the swine influenza viruses recently identified in the United States.

On April 25, the WHO Director-General declared this event a Public Health Emergency of International Concern under the rules of the International Health Regulations. CDC and state public and animal health authorities are currently investigating the outbreak in the United States. Click here to see todayÃÔ case count. Some of the U.S. cases have been linked to travel to Mexico. CDC is concerned that continued travel by U.S. travelers to Mexico presents a serious risk for their health and the health of others during travel and after they return to the United States.

CDC Recommendations
At this time, CDC recommends that U.S. travelers avoid all nonessential travel to Mexico. Changes to this recommendation will be posted at Travelers' Health | CDC. Please check this site frequently for updates.








I am planning on diving in Cozumel May 5 and wanted to get the most recent information on what's different in San Miguel. What's open and what's closed? Any changes you noticed, some that might even be an improvement, associated with the cruise ships being gone. Things like that. This will help us get excited about our trip other than just the negative stuff we hear.

[dive pro]

Miguel, here is some up to date info you might find helpful. Please get the latest facts before you post.


Travel Health Warning
Travel Warning: H1N1 Flu (Swine Flu) and Severe Cases of Respiratory Illness in Mexico Avoid Nonessential Travel to Mexico
This information is current as of today, May 03, 2009 at 11:39 EDT
Updated: April 30, 2009

Revised to link to updated antiviral recommendations for travelers

Current Situation
As of April 28, 2009, the Government of Mexico has reported 26 confirmed human cases of H1N1 flu (swine flu), including seven deaths. Investigation is continuing to clarify the spread and severity of the disease in Mexico. The World Health Organization (WHO), the Global Alert and Response Network (GOARN), and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have sent experts to Mexico to work with health authorities. CDC has confirmed that seven of 14 respiratory specimens sent to CDC by the Mexican National Influenza Center are positive for influenza A (H1N1) and are similar to the swine influenza viruses recently identified in the United States.

On April 25, the WHO Director-General declared this event a Public Health Emergency of International Concern under the rules of the International Health Regulations. CDC and state public and animal health authorities are currently investigating the outbreak in the United States. Click here to see todayÃÔ case count. Some of the U.S. cases have been linked to travel to Mexico. CDC is concerned that continued travel by U.S. travelers to Mexico presents a serious risk for their health and the health of others during travel and after they return to the United States.

CDC Recommendations
At this time, CDC recommends that U.S. travelers avoid all nonessential travel to Mexico. Changes to this recommendation will be posted at Travelers' Health | CDC (http://wwwn.cdc.gov/travel/). Please check this site frequently for updates.

Side Note = To be fair, I fully realize that Cancun and Coz are not exactly the information centers of the World and that you guys are a little removed from the "Information highway". I also wanted to add that all of us that advise extra caution and that take this flu thing more seriously, realize none of you mean any harm to anyone. We just think that some of your financial consideration might be clouding your better judgement.

LIKE I SAID BEFORE PLEASE DO NOT ADRESS ME OR MY NAME, HERE IS THE LATEST INFORMATION AND BY THE WAY THE CDC ON MANY DESITIONS DEPEND ON THE OFFICIAL INFORMATION FOR THE WORLD: WORLD HEALTH ORG BY THE UN
TODAY'S MAY 3RD WORLD HEALTH ORG REPORT FOR EVERYONE:

Influenza A(H1N1) - update 11
3 May 2009 -- As of 0600 GMT, 3 May 2009, 17 countries have officially reported 787 cases of influenza A(H1N1) infection.

Mexico has reported 506 confirmed human cases of infection, including 19 deaths. The higher number of cases from Mexico in the past 48 hours reflects ongoing testing of previously collected specimens. The United States Government has reported 160 laboratory confirmed human cases, including one death.

The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths - Austria (1), Canada (70), China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (1), Costa Rica (1), Denmark (1), France (2), Germany (6), Ireland (1), Israel (3), Netherlands (1), New Zealand (4), Republic of Korea (1), Spain (13), Switzerland (1) and the United Kingdom (15).

Further information on the situation will be available on the WHO website on a regular basis.

WHO advises no restriction of regular travel or closure of borders. It is considered prudent for people who are ill to delay international travel and for people developing symptoms following international travel to seek medical attention, in line with guidance from national authorities.Canada on 2 May reported the identification of the A(H1N1) virus in a swine herd in Alberta. It is highly probable that the pigs were exposed to the virus from a Canadian farm worker recently returned from Mexico, who had exhibited flu-like symptoms and had contact with the pigs. There is no indication of virus adaptation through transfer from human to pigs at this time.

There is no risk of infection from this virus from consumption of well-cooked pork and pork products.

Individuals are advised to wash hands thoroughly with soap and water on a regular basis and should seek medical attention if they develop any symptoms of influenza-like illness.

Related links
Influenza A(H1N1) web site

[jayjoans]

Oh NO! The news just keeps getting worse!

As the "pandemic" DandyDon likes to call it starts to fade, it just means we're one step closer to the killer phase DandyDon warned us about!! Out of the frying pan and into the fire, damn.

Shoot, we'll probably look back at this past week as the good ol' days. :mooner:

I propose we start a whole new thread entitled "Mexico will kill us all" That will give Don and PilotFish a blank slate to work with and divers won't have to waste time wading through all of the old posts in this thread of people saying they were being hysterical.

[jayjoans]

Pilot Fish, Divepro is right....again. I read this very WHO update last night and would have thought you would have seen it too. But I guess it doesn't really support your position so you quoted old information from the CDC (April 30). Man, that has to suck for you.


3 May 2009 -- As of 0600 GMT
WHO | Influenza A(H1N1) - update 11 (http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_05_03/en/index.html)

[dive pro]

QUOTED BY PILOT FISH Side Note = To be fair, I fully realize that Cancun and Coz are not exactly the information centers of the World and that you guys are a little removed from the "Information highway". I also wanted to add that all of us that advise extra caution and that take this flu thing more seriously, realize none of you mean any harm to anyone. We just think that some of your financial consideration might be clouding your better judgement


HERE YOU GO AGAIN ASSUMING, WE ARE WELL AWARE, WE GET ALL TV INTERNATIONAL CHANNELS FAST SPEED INTERNET AND SOME OF US HAVE FAMILY MEMBERS IN TOP FEDERAL GOVERNMENT HEALTH POSITIONS PLUS WE HAVE MANY MANY DIVER FRIENDS ALL OVER THE WORLD SPECIALLY THE USA WE HAVE A TOLL FREE LINE AND WE CALL, THE SHOP I WORK FOR OWNERS ARE FROM TEXAS AND WE KEEP INFO COMING IN... WE ARE NOT CAVE MEN (ONLY FOR CAVE DIVING) AND FINANCIAL SITUATION DID NOT CLOUD OUR POSITION WHEN HURRICANES HAVE COME, WHEN WE HAVE TOLD PEOPLE THAT WANTED TO COME NOT TO DO IT SO THINK WHAT YOU WILL, YOU HAVE I AM SURE ANOTHER AGENDA OF SOME TYPE AND FROM NOW ON NOTHING YOU SAY WILL AFFECT ME, WE LIKE I SAID WENT OUT YESTERDAY WENT OUT TODAY, ARE GOING OUT TOMORROW, THEN THERE IS A CONVENTION THAT WE ARE TAKING CARE OF SOME 12 DIVERS AND THINGS ARE LOW BUT NORMAL HERE SO I REALLY COULD CARE LESS OF EVERYTHING YOU POST BECAUSE YOU TWIST THINGS, YOU TALK ABOUT LATEST INFO, AND TO ME THE THIRD WORLD COUNTRY IGNORANT (I WAS EDUCATED IN THE UNIVERSITY OF MN, A POSTGRADE IN MARKETING) I TAKE VERY SERIOUSLY WHAT I POST AND I POSTED THE LATEST REPORT FROM THE UNITED NATIONS WORLDS HEALTH ORGANIZATION I KNOW FOR A FACT THAT THE CDC BASES DESITIONS ON WHO.....SO ANYWAY AGAIN DONT COME TO MY COUNTRY AND BY THE WAY YESTERDAY 8 RUSSIANS WERE KILLED BY A GAS EXPLOTION, THERE IS A LOT OF GAS IN CANCUN SO YOU MAY CONSIDER NEVER COMING HERE, THERE IS NOTHING FOR YOU TO DO, ONLY DIVING, POST WHAT YOU WANT BUT THERE ARE A LOT MORE POSITIVE COMMENTS ABOUT THIS THAN YOU LITTLE POST WAR THAT ON MY END IS DONE RIGHT NOW, I WISH YOU WELL, I DO NOT THINK YOU MEAN ANY HARM, ON THE OTHER HAND I THINK YOU ARE TRYING TO HELP IN YOUR OWN SPECIAL WAY, GO BACK AND READ YOUR POSTS SAYING THAT YOU BASE INFO ON WHO AND WHO SAYS NO RESTRICTION TO TRAVEL......ANYWAY HAVE A FANTASTIC DAY AND DON'T GO OUT, REGULAR FLU, DIAHRREA, ALCOHOL RELATED DEATHS, MOSQUITOES, WARS, AND NOW LACK OF INFO ARE KILLING PEOPLE DAYLY AND MORE THAN THIS VIRUS.....STOP ADDRESSING ME PLEASE WE ARE DONE, I WISH YOU WELL

[lamont]

PLEASE STOP THE EPIDEMIC OF USE OF ALL CAPS AND huge colored letters IN THIS THREAD.

Oh damn, i'm INFECTED.

[dive pro]

oh no! The news just keeps getting worse!

As the "pandemic" dandydon likes to call it starts to fade, it just means we're one step closer to the killer phase dandydon warned us about!! Out of the frying pan and into the fire, damn.

Shoot, we'll probably look back at this past week as the good ol' days. :mooner:

I propose we start a whole new thread entitled "mexico will kill us all" that will give don and pilotfish a blank slate to work with and divers won't have to waste time wading through all of the old posts in this thread of people saying they were being hysterical.

hola jay, dandydon is providing info from diver to divers at least, pilot fish is not even a certified diver......anyway thanks and again i do not provide but who information and the real thing happening here, if it were bad i would be asking people to stay away, and even to lend some help here....but everyone can post what they want.:d

[diver 85]

I don't understand what you mean. Are you being sarcastic?


I did not take it as being sarcastic, ...Go & enjoy---another poster gave you all the info you need ie some things shut down, the essentials (grocery stores) open...wife & I got back 1 week ago today, best trip ever(6 in last 2.5 years) to date....of course we stayed @ Villa Aldora & dove with them---how can anything be but great with their setup...:D


..enjoy.....

[dive pro]

THIS IS THE LATEST REPORT FROM THE UNITED NATIONS WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION THAT ARE THE TOP OF THE LINE AND OFFICIAL INFORMACION THE CDC CENTER DEPENDS ON WHO'S DESITION:
IF YOU HAVE ANY DOUBTS HERE IS THE WORLD'S HEALTH ORGANIZATION WEBSITEhttp: //www.who.int/en/

Influenza A(H1N1) - update 12
3 May 2009 -- As of 1600 GMT, 3 May 2009, 18 countries have officially reported 898 cases of influenza A(H1N1) infection.

Mexico has reported 506 confirmed human cases of infection, including 19 deaths. The higher number of cases from Mexico in the past 48 hours reflects ongoing testing of previously collected specimens. The United States Government has reported 226 laboratory confirmed human cases, including one death.

The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths - Austria (1), Canada (85), China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (1), Costa Rica (1), Denmark (1), France (2), Germany (8), Ireland (1), Israel (3), Italy (1), Netherlands (1), New Zealand (4), Republic of Korea (1), Spain (40), Switzerland (1) and the United Kingdom (15).

Further information on the situation will be available on the WHO website on a regular basis.

WHO advises no restriction of regular travel or closure of borders.It is considered prudent for people who are ill to delay international travel and for people developing symptoms following international travel to seek medical attention, in line with guidance from national authorities.

Canada on 2 May reported the identification of the A(H1N1) virus in a swine herd in Alberta. It is highly probable that the pigs were exposed to the virus from a Canadian farm worker recently returned from Mexico, who had exhibited flu-like symptoms and had contact with the pigs. There is no indication of virus adaptation through transfer from human to pigs at this time.

There is no risk of infection from this virus from consumption of well-cooked pork and pork products.

Individuals are advised to wash hands thoroughly with soap and water on a regular basis and should seek medical attention if they develop any symptoms of influenza-like illness.

Related links
Influenza A(H1N1) web site
Daily updates will be posted on this site.

[WOODMAN]

PLEASE STOP THE EPIDEMIC OF USE OF ALL CAPS AND huge colored letters IN THIS THREAD.

Oh damn, i'm INFECTED.

That's what you get for playing with fire-(this whole thread, in my opinion:no:) Fer chrissake, let's all just step back aways from all this and see how it plays out over the next week or so. I think we will have a better picture of the whole thing soon, if we can just avoid killing each other over this before then. Seriously- chill, people!:coolingoff:

[Mawg]

[QUOTE=WOODMAN; Fer chrissake, let's all just step back aways from all this and see how it plays out over the next week or so. I think we will have a better picture of the whole thing soon, if we can just avoid killing each other over this before then. Seriously- chill, people!:coolingoff:[/QUOTE]


The Burro Rises.

[jayjoans]

Well, I'm off to the airport to fly back to the US. It has been a GREAT week in Cozumel. Absolutely no worries whatsoever about being here in regard to the flu. I have no worries whatsoever getting on the plane with other island visitors that have been here and out of harm's way for likely the past week too. Once in Houston, I'll wash my my hands often and be aware of who I'm sitting by, but odds are they will not be Mexicans or people that have recently visited Mexico, just flying stiffs like me flying from Texas to California.

Honestly, I'll do nothing different than I normally do in crowded places.

Goodbye Coz, hope to see you again soon.

[DandyDon]

Wow, how lame...!

But then I skip any post with all caps or huge fonts, like most people do.

I see where a specie crossover has occurred again, with an Alberta, Canada man returning from Mexico and infecting his pigs.

Put this in your Sig if you do know someone who has had swine flu...


58857

[judydivescoz]

Wow, how lame...!

But then I skip any post with all caps or huge fonts, like most people do.

I see where a specie crossover has occurred again, with an Alberta, Canada man returning from Mexico and infecting his pigs.

Put this in your Sig if you do know someone who has had swine flu...


58857

Don
I have always loved your posts and found them to be informative and amusing. When you stopped posting on this forum you were missed! Your swine flu posts have defiantly put you way over the top. You are like a man possessed with information on swine flu. Some of it may very well be correct but your posts are so inflammatory, argumentative long and boring. I imagine many readers are now doubting your credibility. Don, go back to the man we all know and love, tell us about bringing your coffeepot, arguing with taxi drivers about their fares and your love of diving in Cozumel. We all miss you.

[Christi]

That's fine DF. Some of the "everything is fine" posts have been insulting, and - if we cannot have a free exchange of ideas, opinions, and facts, we may as well tell Pete to shut down the forums.

Cozumel has its own site. Maybe we don't even need then one if only opinions approved by locals are allowed here...?

No Don, it isn't that only opinions approved by locals are welcome here...but we have the right to speak our opinions and state information as we know them just as you do. My point to you was that in one breath you say you're not giving advice one way or another, and in the next you're calling people foolish for their decisions to go through with planned trips.

As MANY have said in this thread - INCLUDING me...it's up to each individual to make their own decisions. It's up to each individual to weigh the risks they are willing to take as with ANYTHING. I also said in another thread, which I stand by - if one is going to cancel a trip to Cozumel for fear of contracting this flu virus, then by the same logic they should cancel ALL travel plans until the risk is gone. It is TRAVELING that puts one at more risk - NOT Cozumel as a destination! However, even according to the WHO, once again:

WHO advises no restriction of regular travel or closure of borders. It is considered prudent for people who are ill to delay international travel and for people developing symptoms following international travel to seek medical attention, in line with guidance from national authorities.

Please stop cherry picking and taking things said out of context - Pilotfish is a pro at that!

Everyone has opinions on this and everyone is entitled to their opinions. There are plenty that share your opinions Don and Pilot - and I am not alone in my opinion either.

And BTW...MANY of the people participating in this thread who are not in the sky is falling camp are not locals - so you can stop that claim.

[DandyDon]

Don
I have always loved your posts and found them to be informative and amusing. When you stopped posting on this forum you were missed! Your swine flu posts have defiantly put you way over the top. You are like a man possessed with information on swine flu. Some of it may very well be correct but your posts are so inflammatory, argumentative long and boring. I imagine many readers are now doubting your credibility. Don, go back to the man we all know and love, tell us about bringing your coffeepot, arguing with taxi drivers about their fares and your love of diving in Cozumel. We all miss you.
Aw thanks! Didn't bring my pop last time and missed it. Do you know if Mega has cheap, 12 cup coffee makers? I am getting better with taxi drivers. :D


58863

LaMont thinks this thing is winding down. It's really hard to tell as WHO is still at phase 5, optimistic but cautious I think they say. Hope it does, and we're ready for the next wave.

[pilot fish]

Travel Health Warning
Travel Warning: H1N1 Flu (Swine Flu) and Severe Cases of Respiratory Illness in Mexico Avoid Nonessential Travel to Mexico
This information is current as of today, May 03, 2009 at 11:39 EDT
Updated: April 30, 2009

You probably missed that part, huh? That must make you feel, well, sucky, huh?




Pilot Fish, Divepro is right....again. I read this very WHO update last night and would have thought you would have seen it too. But I guess it doesn't really support your position so you quoted old information from the CDC (April 30). Man, that has to suck for you.


3 May 2009 -- As of 0600 GMT
WHO | Influenza A(H1N1) - update 11 (http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_05_03/en/index.html)

[pilot fish]

NOW, I WISH YOU WELL, I DO NOT THINK YOU MEAN ANY HARM, ON THE OTHER HAND I THINK YOU ARE TRYING TO HELP IN YOUR OWN SPECIAL WAY, GO BACK AND READ YOUR POSTS SAYING THAT YOU BASE INFO ON WHO AND WHO SAYS NO RESTRICTION TO TRAVEL......ANYWAY HAVE A FANTASTIC DAY AND DON'T GO OUT, REGULAR FLU, DIAHRREA, ALCOHOL RELATED DEATHS, MOSQUITOES, WARS, AND NOW LACK OF INFO ARE KILLING PEOPLE DAYLY AND MORE THAN THIS VIRUS.....STOP ADDRESSING ME PLEASE WE ARE DONE, I WISH YOU WELL

I wish you well, as well. I'll take youor advice and not go out, at least for this evening :) Thanks.

[DandyDon]

Travel Health Warning
Travel Warning: H1N1 Flu (Swine Flu) and Severe Cases of Respiratory Illness in Mexico Avoid Nonessential Travel to Mexico
This information is current as of today, May 03, 2009 at 11:39 EDT
Updated: April 30, 2009

You probably missed that part, huh? That must make you feel, well, sucky, huh?
PF, the WHO is not advising that, and I think he admitted that the CDC is.

[pilot fish]

Don, go back to the man we all know and love, tell us about bringing your coffeepot, arguing with taxi drivers about their fares and your love of diving in Cozumel. We all miss you.

Translation = keep your opinions, and facts, to yourself when they differ from theirs:D

[pilot fish]

Like most things, you will find those that advise this and others that advise that. I'm just saying, err on the side of safety. Keep in mind that those traveling TO Coz could be bringing the flu WITH them. It works both ways. Just be safe, divers.



PF, the WHO is not advising that, and I think he admitted that the CDC is.

[lamont]

LaMont thinks this thing is winding down. It's really hard to tell as WHO is still at phase 5, optimistic but cautious I think they say. Hope it does, and we're ready for the next wave.

I don't think its "winding down", I just think we know enough about it now that we need to resume something closer to business-as-usual. I don't see *any* evidence of increased risk of a 1918-lethality pandemic right now. But the southern hemisphere could see a wave of influenza that along with the typical seasonal flu could cause 2-3x the normal fatality rate when flu season really gets going down there. Hopefully by the time flu season comes back around in the northern hemisphere we have a vaccine.

I will probably be getting a flu shot this year (I normally don't), since I would bet that 2009-2010 northern hemisphere flu season will be bad and symptomatically it will probably be much worse than my normal flu symptoms (usually I just get a degree of fever and don't really get respiratory symptoms -- I haven't had more than low-grade influenza in years). Right now with a plane tix to Cancun in June I'm more worried about GI bugs and more concerned about remembering to pre-load my GI tract with yogurt cultures before I leave than having Tamiflu with me down there...

The one other nod to the flu that I'm going to give is that I'm going to make certain to "quarantine" myself from my young nieces and nephews when I get back, for a week or so to make sure I don't get sick and pass it on to them...

And its still always worth watching. We still don't understand why the reports out of Mexico were reporting so many fatalities in otherwise healthy adults. We don't *know* that it won't come back in another pandemic wave in the northern hemisphere even in the summer months. Mexico is reporting that it may be burning itself out there (of course all the bashing on Mexican authorities cuts both ways, they could be playing it down now). We still need to watch the evolution of cases in the US over time (where we've apparently got better reporting), but we're entering hot summer months where this virus should have a difficult time.

[pilot fish]

ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, lamont, hope you're wearinng flame retardent clothes? ouch, :)

[judydivescoz]

Translation = keep your opinions, and facts, to yourself when they differ from theirs:D
Pilot Fish,
I will not respond to your comment but it did come off looking a bit mean spirited.

[judydivescoz]

[QUOTE=DandyDon;4395349]Aw thanks! Didn't bring my pop last time and missed it. Do you know if Mega has cheap, 12 cup coffee makers? I am getting better with taxi drivers. :D
[CENTER]
We always rent a condo and they have a coffee pot in the kitchen although our breakfast of choice diving days in Cozumel includes coke light and oreos!

[DandyDon]

We always rent a condo and they have a coffee pot in the kitchen although our breakfast of choice diving days in Cozumel includes coke light and oreos!
From looking here: Cozumel Mexico has a new Supermarket; Mega! (http://cozumelmexico.net/Mega_supermarket/)

There are flat panel TV's for sale, Maytag washers, dryers, refrigerators and just about everything that you would want for your home as well as food.
I think I will put that on the first day shopping list...

[pilot fish]

Pilot Fish,
I will not respond to your comment but it did come off looking a bit mean spirited.

Oh? :confused: So glad you didn't respond to my post. Sheesh, if you had, no telling what you might have said? :rofl3:

[pilot fish]

From looking here: Cozumel Mexico has a new Supermarket; Mega! (http://cozumelmexico.net/Mega_supermarket/)

I think I will put that on the first day shopping list...

Do you bring your own coffee with you too? A few months ago when I was diving in Coz I brought my own coffee with me. I can never find half decaf any place:depressed:

[dive pro]

CHECK OUT THIS THREAD ON THIS BOARDhttp://www.scubaboard.com/forums/cozumel/283014-best-time-ever-cozumel.html

TO ALL DIVERS THAT ARE THINKING OF GOING TO COZ SOON, THIS ARE COMMENTS FROM PEOPLE THAT ARE OR JUST HAVE BEEN IN COZ.

[pilot fish]

An interesting statistic a doctor friend of mine just shared with me, they are looking into why older people, 50s, 60s & 70s, seem to be more resistent to the current swine flu outbreak than younger people, 20s, 30s & 40s, It is way too early to draw any solid conclusions, he said, but they suspect it MIGHT be that older people that have many years of getting flu shots MIGHT have built up some sort of resistence. Right now it is just empiracal.

[lamont]

ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, lamont, hope you're wearinng flame retardent clothes? ouch, :)

i don't know why i'd need flame retardant clothing with any of those statements...

wow, mariners just tied it up in the bottom of the 9th and have runners on 1st and 2nd with 1 out and ichiro coming up... hopefully they don't hit into a double play...

[pilot fish]

I agree, you should not need that kind of protection but things can get heated in this thread?;)

Sean O'Hare just won at Quail Hollow in Charlotte.:lotsalove: I was there for part of the week and can tell you, if was some tough course, even if there was no rough to speak of. My fav did not make the cut:depressed:




i don't know why i'd need flame retardant clothing with any of those statements...

wow, mariners just tied it up in the bottom of the 9th and have runners on 1st and 2nd with 1 out and ichiro coming up... hopefully they don't hit into a double play...

[lamont]

An interesting statistc a doctor friend of mine just shared with me, they are looking into why older people, 50s, 60s & 70s, seem to be more resistent to the current swine flu outbreak than younger people, 20s, 30s & 40s, It is way too early to draw any solid conclusions, he said, but they suspect it MIGHT be that older people that have many years of getting flu shots MIGHT have built up some sort of resistence. Right now it is just empiracal.

First of all, the medical premise there might not be true. So far I don't think they've found that younger adults are having stronger reactions to this than older ones -- that was information coming out of Mexico, but I don't think it has been backed up by the behavior of the virus in the US.

Second of all, it probably isn't exposure to flu shots, it is probably exposure to flu viruses. It is plausible that the swine virus envelope proteins are more similar to viruses that circulated in the human population in the 1940s and 1950s and less similar to current circulating H1N1 human influenza viruses, so older people have antibodies to older viruses similar enough to this swine influenza to give partial immunity. But there's a whole chain of "if"s that lead up to that possibility...

This graphic might lend some plausibility to the idea:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b8/Influenza_subtypes.svg/631px-Influenza_subtypes.svg.png

Assuming the 1918 to appx 1957 H1N1 and the post-1977 H1N1 strains are substantially different, and assuming this swine influenza is more like the pre-1957 version, which is a lot of assumtions to make off one wikipedia graph...

[lamont]

Turns out that idea is actually what happened in 1977:



1977: Russian Flu Threat

In May 1977, influenza A/H1N1 viruses isolated in northern China, spread rapidly, and caused epidemic disease in children and young adults (< 23 years) worldwide. The 1977 virus was similar to other A/H1N1 viruses that had circulated prior to 1957. (In 1957, the A/H1N1 virus was replaced by the new A/H2N2 viruses). Because of the timing of the appearance of these viruses, persons born before 1957 were likely to have been exposed to A/H1N1 viruses and to have developed immunity against A/H1N1 viruses. Therefore, when the A/H1N1 reappeared in 1977, many people over the age of 23 had some protection against the virus and it was primarily younger people who became ill from A/H1N1 infections. By January 1978, the virus had spread around the world, including the United States. Because illness occurred primarily in children, this event was not considered a true pandemic. Vaccine containing this virus was not produced in time for the 1977-78 season, but the virus was included in the 1978-79 vaccine.


Those >23 year olds in 1977 are now >55 year olds.

It is plausible that post-1977 H1N1 antibodies are not as effective as pre-1957 H1N1 antibodies...

Still a lot of 'if's...

[lmgdiving]

Go to mexico!!!! We just returned May 2nd and had no problems whatsoever. In fact, we loved that the cruise ships weren't there, it almost felt like the old days!! Have a good trip and please don't let the media scare keep you away.

[lamont]

wow, mariners just tied it up in the bottom of the 9th and have runners on 1st and 2nd with 1 out and ichiro coming up... hopefully they don't hit into a double play...

top of the 13th and the mariners are trying hard to lose...

[lamont]

1 confirmed case in Q.Roo:

Secretara de Salud (http://portal.salud.gob.mx/contenidos/noticias/influenza/estadisticas.html)

And very likely this can be added to the US students coming back from Cancun and the UK couple coming back from Cancun. And there's probably many more unreported, undiagnosed, unconfirmed cases in the state.

EDIT: yikes, the M's just tied it back up in the bottom of the 13th... crazy game...

[pilot fish]

First of all, the medical premise there might not be true. So far I don't think they've found that younger adults are having stronger reactions to this than older ones

Please reread my post. I did not say younger ones had stronger reactions. I said, from what I was told, that older adults seemd a bit more resistent. It is now just something they are OBSERVING. As I said in my post, no conclusions yet.



-- that was information coming out of Mexico, but I don't think it has been backed up by the behavior of the virus in the US. Second of all, it probably isn't exposure to flu shots, it is probably exposure to flu viruses. It is plausible that the swine virus envelope proteins are more similar to viruses that circulated in the human population in the 1940s and 1950s and less similar to current circulating H1N1 human influenza viruses, so older people have antibodies to older viruses similar enough to this swine influenza to give partial immunity. But there's a whole chain of "if"s that lead up to that possibility...

That is equally possible, I would assume. No conlusions have been drawn, just things they are observing.


This graphic might lend some plausibility to the idea:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b8/Influenza_subtypes.svg/631px-Influenza_subtypes.svg.png

Assuming the 1918 to appx 1957 H1N1 and the post-1977 H1N1 strains are substantially different, and assuming this swine influenza is more like the pre-1957 version, which is a lot of assumtions to make off one wikipedia graph...


It's all speculation at this point.

[pilot fish]

Yes, that is what my doc friend told me, as I mentioned in my post. But, big but, no conclusions



Turns out that idea is actually what happened in 1977:


Quote:
1977: Russian Flu Threat

In May 1977, influenza A/H1N1 viruses isolated in northern China, spread rapidly, and caused epidemic disease in children and young adults (< 23 years) worldwide. The 1977 virus was similar to other A/H1N1 viruses that had circulated prior to 1957. (In 1957, the A/H1N1 virus was replaced by the new A/H2N2 viruses). Because of the timing of the appearance of these viruses, persons born before 1957 were likely to have been exposed to A/H1N1 viruses and to have developed immunity against A/H1N1 viruses. Therefore, when the A/H1N1 reappeared in 1977, many people over the age of 23 had some protection against the virus and it was primarily younger people who became ill from A/H1N1 infections. By January 1978, the virus had spread around the world, including the United States. Because illness occurred primarily in children, this event was not considered a true pandemic. Vaccine containing this virus was not produced in time for the 1977-78 season, but the virus was included in the 1978-79 vaccine.

Those >23 year olds in 1977 are now >55 year olds.

It is plausible that post-1977 H1N1 antibodies are not as effective as pre-1957 H1N1 antibodies...

Still a lot of 'if's...

[pilot fish]

That is useful information for the Cancun residents and dive Ops to read.



1 confirmed case in Q.Roo:

Secretara de Salud (http://portal.salud.gob.mx/contenidos/noticias/influenza/estadisticas.html)

And very likely this can be added to the US students coming back from Cancun and the UK couple coming back from Cancun. And there's probably many more unreported, undiagnosed, unconfirmed cases in the state.

EDIT: yikes, the M's just tied it back up in the bottom of the 13th... crazy game...

[pilot fish]

An interesting and informative read.


Telegraph.co.uk
Jim Lander from Cancun

In Cancun – where a number of the flu's foreign victims, including a Scottish couple, were staying while in Mexico – the 90 huge hotels are emptier than usual. Hotel occupancy has reportedly fallen by 36 per cent as tourists stay away, but those who come are not fazed by health concerns.
At the Oasis Cancun, the hotel where a group of New York high school students were staying just days before coming down with the virus, the party is still in full swing. A young American woman showed little interest in the link as she slugged down a cocktail at the bar. She was breaking all the Mexican government's warnings about not gathering in crowded places, avoiding physical contact and regular handwashing, and she clearly didn't even know it.

Away from the resorts where the locals are doing their level best not to alarm the gringos, [strange word to use?]there have been widespread signs of a worried population. Mexican hospitals report being inundated by thousands of people worried they may have caught the virus.
In the capital, the mood has swung up and down like a pendulum during the week, the vigilance of people's precautions varying considerably from neighbourhood to neighbourhood. In the fashionable middle-class Condesa, almost everyone on the streets has been carefully sporting their paper blue surgical facemasks.

"I basically stay in my house almost all the time. I don't want to see any of my friends in case they infect me or my son or daughter," said Alejandra Peralta, a 37-year-old single mother who works for the government. "A friend yesterday said he was going to pop by. I told him that I didn't want him in my home spreading his germs."

But in many working class barrios, teenagers and young men massed carelessly on the street, laughing, chatting and kicking footballs around.

"I'm not scared of the flu. If it gets me, then it gets me," said Hector Quiros, 27, shrugging.
Bizarre conspiracy theories - blaming America, drug cartels or their own government - are circulating to explain why the virus – whose confirmed flu-related death toll in Mexico now stands at 15 dead and 328 people infected - has been hit so much harder than anywhere else.
Mexico's poor health care system and rudimentary scientific testing facilities have been blamed for delaying for crucial weeks identification of the virus as a new, mutant strain. The 39-year-old woman who was the first to die in the epidemic spent the last eight days of her life going from clinic to clinic to find out what was wrong with her but doctors were baffled.

Misinformation continues to be rife. Hotel management in Caribbean resorts such as Cancun claim - misleadingly given the evidence from abroad - that the virus hasn't affected their regions but at the same time some have been issuing kitchen staff with masks.
Hotel staff have clearly been under orders to play down the crisis, ignoring searching questions with a smile. At the Dreams Cancun resort, an Irish honeymooner asked a concierge about the bag of surgical masks on his desk. The hotel worker mumbled that they were for staff and quickly moved them out of sight, said the tourist.

The hotels are not alone. According to some British holiday makers, local travel company representatives were dismissing fears over the virus as "hype" earlier this week. Among hundreds of tourists who queued on Wednesday for a specially-arranged plane to take them home, there were angry accusations that travel companies had downplayed the health risks.

[Zman96]

We just got back yesterday and we would get on a plane and go again tomorrow if we could. This was our best vacation ever, go enjoy.

[DandyDon]

Do you bring your own coffee with you too? A few months ago when I was diving in Coz I brought my own coffee with me. I can never find half decaf any place:depressed:
I usually take my own coffee maker & coffee on all land based dive trips, as I like the convenience & economy of my in-room maker, and I don't think any other countries seem to carry brewed decaf. I didn't last time as the Blue Angel started free lobby coffee, but I missed my pot - especially evenings. I've been known to carry my 1-Qt thermos of decaf out with me, ask the waiter if they have decaf, then when he says "no" ask if they mind if I drink my own. :cool: Never been checked for Kahlua content either.


CHECK OUT THIS THREAD ON THIS BOARDhttp://www.scubaboard.com/forums/cozumel/283014-best-time-ever-cozumel.html

TO ALL DIVERS THAT ARE THINKING OF GOING TO COZ SOON, THIS ARE COMMENTS FROM PEOPLE THAT ARE OR JUST HAVE BEEN IN COZ.
Hardly necessary. I think almost everyone reading this thread including posters are eager to get back there. I posted recently that I was happy that my home bud was going with me next time as it lowers room costs and makes me a safer diver but I only wish he'd agreed to next month instead of August. We did add "cancel for any reason" to our trip insurance tho, just in case of new unknowns materializing, even tho we feel reasonably comfortable that this will calm down well before August.


An interesting statistic a doctor friend of mine just shared with me, they are looking into why older people, 50s, 60s & 70s, seem to be more resistent to the current swine flu outbreak than younger people, 20s, 30s & 40s, It is way too early to draw any solid conclusions, he said, but they suspect it MIGHT be that older people that have many years of getting flu shots MIGHT have built up some sort of resistence. Right now it is just empiracal.
I mentioned that with links and article quotes yesterday here, and commented more than once that I've been 59 for a few years now - the resistant group. :eyebrow: I just do not have any selfish interests in the discussion here at all; just discussing.


Turns out that idea is actually what happened in 1977:

Those >23 year olds in 1977 are now >55 year olds.

It is plausible that post-1977 H1N1 antibodies are not as effective as pre-1957 H1N1 antibodies...

Still a lot of 'if's...
Arrg, I remember the flu of the 50s! Having to sleep with a puke pan handy. Glad that doesn't happen to me when I get a flu anymore. Farm boys aren't into hand washing much so I have to really remind myself now, and I guess I've had all of the strains except for the ones the annual vaccines helped ward off. One year recently I forgot to get the shot, had a bad case, then a relapse a new strain on a Blackbeard liveabord - not only ruining the trip, but I can't think of a worse place to have it. I asked the captain if he wanted to put me off in the Bahamas but he didn't; said they didn't have facilities there to care for me, not that I was getting any care at all on that boat. I guess a lot of others on the boat went home with it. :blush:


1 confirmed case in Q.Roo:

Secretara de Salud (http://portal.salud.gob.mx/contenidos/noticias/influenza/estadisticas.html)

And very likely this can be added to the US students coming back from Cancun and the UK couple coming back from Cancun. And there's probably many more unreported, undiagnosed, unconfirmed cases in the state.

EDIT: yikes, the M's just tied it back up in the bottom of the 13th... crazy game...
That's the aspect that has been difficult for me. Hell we know it's there, how can it not be - just not reported. I was raised in the knowledge that if you wanted anything done officially in Mexico or New Mexico either one, you asked how much the bribe was, and I don't know of any big improvements in government honesty.

I gotta boot!

[dive pro]

Oh God now I am really scared from Pilot Fish last post, maybe thinking of moving to the UK, but wait a minute according to WHO the Uk has reported 15 cases already. And I am moved it is so nice this post of the famous and internationally known official information provider "The Telegraph" who I bet the reporter had no other intention but to be nice and inform fellow people about the conspiracy going on in Cancun, not to get people to read their paper or news on internet at all, no media frenzy.....wow.
To all others on this board a big apology for this back and forth with Pilot fish that I really do not understand why he wants to trash Cancun and Cozumel, on his profile it says 0 dives non certified but on one of his comments he claims to bring his own coffee to Coz when he went diving....so that kind of confuses me just like all of his comments that other divers that post have found not so great. To me this ends here I have had enough of Pilot fish like some of you have and I bet you have had enough of me with this....but I will continue posting official information, I could post news from local and national news, but they are in spanish and I refuse to post anything that does not come from the World's Health Org. and when they say there is a conspiracy in Cancun I will post it as well. Enough of this, Pilot fish YOU WIN, I guess with this info no one will come, but today we got 6 new reservations for this next week and for the next 2 of them from Manchester repeat divers that come every year and 1 from London.
All that is said on this article from the "telegraph" is a bunch of twisted bad information....we depend on tourism and will always keep them posted just like many of you on this board know Christi is always on top of things informing about hurricanes as DandyDon has as well. Think what you will, make your own desitions my only advice is get real information to make them, I am not down playing this and if you check several other threads like http://www.scubaboard.com/forums/cozumel/283014-best-time-ever-cozumel.html where real divers that have been in Coz in the last week or so post their experiences.
Again sorry all for keeping this little you against me posts, on my part it ends here, he can continue posting all he wants it is his right but I will not answer those posts anymore, I will keep posting the updates from the WORLD'S HEALTH ORG.
THANK YOU ALL

[MMM]

I don't believe that anyone who spends much time on this board harbours any ill will to Cancun or Cozumel. Just the opposite, in fact. What we have are people who interpret information - and therefore associated risk - differently and through their own lenses. That is not unusual in any issue. But some parties seem determined to "win" their pointof view and that is really getting old.

Take a look at the number of hits on this thread, which exceed a sticky that have been up for years. We are MOST interested in this issue, are staying up to date, and figuring on when we can head back to our favourite dive destination.

Pilot Fish is not the only diver on Scubaboard who does not post his dive numbers (he used to, as I recall). Why someone wouldn't I don't get but there you go.

PS If you really want to know what's happening on this virus, pay attention to what I say. I am EXCEPTIONALLY plugged in at an operational level - nationally and internationally. Not boasting - simply fact. I know how this sounds. Can't help it since it is the truth.

[dive pro]

1 confirmed case in Q.Roo:

Secretara de Salud (http://portal.salud.gob.mx/contenidos/noticias/influenza/estadisticas.html)

And very likely this can be added to the US students coming back from Cancun and the UK couple coming back from Cancun. And there's probably many more unreported, undiagnosed, unconfirmed cases in the state.

EDIT: yikes, the M's just tied it back up in the bottom of the 13th... crazy game...

HOLA LAMONT I CLICKED ON YOUR LINK OF SECRETARIA DE SALUD AND THIS IS WHAT CAME UP AND I DID NOT ERASE ANYTHING, MAYBE I AM WRONG BUT I DID NOT READ ANY CASES OR THE NAME OF OUR STATE QUINTANA ROO OR MAYBE YOU CAN DIRECT ME WHERE IT SAYS CONFIRMED CASES OF QUINTANA ROO 1 BECAUSE I WOULD REALLY WANT TO KNOW IF STATE GOVMNT IS HIDING OR DOWN PLAYING THINGS AND I DO NOT WANT TO SEEM LIKE A FOOL THIS IS WHAT CAME UP CLICKING THE LINK YOU POSTED, YOUR POSTS ARE ALWAYS GREAT INFO KEEP THEM COMING SINCE WE ARE PROBABLY LIMITED TO WHO AND OUR GVMT WELL YOU KNOW HOW THEY ARE:

Domingo 03 de Mayo del 2009 Secretaria de Salud (http://www.salud.gob.mx)
EstadùÔticas.
02 de mayo del 2009.
Influenza A(H1N1)
Numero de casos confirmados: 443
Numero de defunciones: 16

Distribucion de los casos en el pais (DISTRIBUTION OF CASES PER STATE)

ESTADOS CASOS DEFUNCIONES STATE - # OF CASES - DEATHS
Distrito Federal -285 -11
Estado de Mexiico -53 -3
San Luis Potosi 29- 0
Hidalgo- 27- 0
Baja California -11- 0
Tlaxcala 11 1
Aguascalientes 5 0
Chihuahua 4 0
Colima 3 0
Guerrero 3 0
Chiapas 2 0
Durango 2 0
Puebla 2 0
Queretaro 2 0
Guanajuato 1 0
Michoacán1 0
Oaxaca 1 1
Veracruz 1 0
Totales 443 16




Casos acumulados hasta las 09:20 hrs. del dùÂ 02 de mayo del 2009

[DandyDon]

It's convenient to piss off the news media articles as inaccurate and it's true that they are often more interested in deadlines and selling news than achieving quality, but they are our best sources between WHO & CDC updates, which also tend to include limit info behind their announcements.

Dr Niman did forecast that the US would be well covered in cases within a couple of weeks, and he's seldom wrong in his decades of services....


From http://flutracker.rhizalabs.com/

http://i43.tinypic.com/2nkriqb.jpg


From: Flu, Mostly Mild, Has Spread Across U.S., Officials Say (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/04/health/04flu.html?ref=global-home)

Swine flu has become widespread in the United States, with 226 cases in 30 states and more expected to turn up in additional states in the next few days, federal health officials said Sunday.

Ū think itÃÔ circulating all over the U.S., Dr. Anne Schuchat, the interim deputy director for science and public health at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said in a news conference. ŵhe virus has arrived, I would say, in most of the country now.

The good news, Dr. Schuchat said, is that most cases in the United States have been mild, and health officials in Mexico said that cases there seemed to be leveling off.

But Dr. Schuchat said, Ū donÃÕ think weÃÓe out of the woods yet.

From: US flu tally jumps to 245 as labs catch up (http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jRff2g62rwBC48p3LyUUPxCg9HFAD97V4P401)

The tally of confirmed swine flu cases in the United States jumped Sunday to 245 in 35 states, but officials said that's largely from catching up on a backlog of lab tests rather than a sudden spurt in new infections.

The new count reflects streamlining in federal procedures and the results of tests by states, which have only recently begun confirming cases, said Dr. Anne Schuchat of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta.

Because states are now contributing their results, and because there are many cases to analyze, "I expect the numbers to jump quite a bit in the next couple days," she told reporters Sunday.

I'm sure many kids are enjoying their extra spring breaks as schools close all over, at the pain of working moms. Got to be rough on the school administration to cope; Texas is in the midst of TAKS testing that may even close some schools permantnetly because of poor results in recent years. Got to be traumatic on high school seniors missing the prom they've looked forward to for years. Can't help but wonder how much mischief the kids will get into on their breaks and how much flu they'll spread anyway.

Pig farmers have a new headache, not only dealing with idiots who stopped eating pork for no reason in all of this, but now protecting their herds from infection now that one Canadian farmer returned from Mexico and infected his herd.

A novel new tool in predicting spread is being considered and we may see more of this. From: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/04/health/04model.html?ref=global-homePredicting Flu With the Aid of (George) Washington

His projection is remarkably detailed by clicking on a map one can see how many cases a rural county in North Dakota can expect in two weeks versus how many Queens County in New York City can expect.

Dr. Brockmann can put out a simulation in two days, since each update needs 10 hours of computing time after data is updated. IndianaÃÔ model takes about the same on its supercomputer, Big Red, said its team leader, Alessandro Vespignani, an informatics professor.

His model covers the globe, and it is based on air and land travel records for nearly the whole world. Ūn Africa, predictions are less accurate, but we have truck traffic, Dr. Vespignani said.

Some are commending Mexico for taking better actions that China with SARS, but that's probly more of Mexico couldn't hide it any longer. They had some months of warnings. From: In Mexico, an Unusual Flu Season Was a Sign of Something Ominous (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/02/AR2009050202306.html)

Evidence was mounting in the spring that this was no ordinary flu season. There were 3,000 more cases of serious flu than usual in Mexico this season, and the number of "outbreak clusters" was more than double. Previously healthy adults were dying from severe cases of pneumonia from San Luis Potosi to Oaxaca.

By March 10, authorities first heard reports of a mysterious influenza-like illness in the desert village of La Gloria, a dust-blown settlement in hog-farming country a three-hour drive east of Mexico City. Although the flu season usually should have ended, residents were beginning to feel feverish and achy at an alarming rate. By the end of the outbreak on April 10, 616 people -- nearly 30 percent of the village -- were sick.

"That was a very high attack rate," Lezana said. "Very high."

Teams of health care workers entered the village in early April to investigate. They took nasal and throat swab samples from 50 of the ill. Other medical teams distributed medicine and fumigated the entire village.

The health workers sent the samples to state and federal public health labs. Weeks later, a single patient in La Gloria, 5-year-old ŽÉdgar Enrique HernáÏdez, tested positive for swine flu.

One reason for the delay in understanding the outbreak was the fact that the national testing laboratory in Mexico City was unable to identify the new strain found in La Gloria.

As medical researchers were trying to understand the situation in La Gloria, they received information about another outbreak, this time in the southern city of Oaxaca, where a cluster of patients was showing severe respiratory distress.

and

Nonstop, Joint Efforts

Within a day of the discovery of the new strain, CDC experts were in Mexico City helping their counterparts enhance laboratory testing of the virus. A dozen new rapid-testing DNA analyzers are now working round-the-clock on a backlog of 1,000 samples.

"They were under tremendous pressure, working 16 hours a day. But they did it," said Miguel Cruz, an emergency operations officer with the CDC who was sent to Mexico City.

Cruz and other members of a team helping the Mexicans are headquartered in a building in southern Mexico City. On the third floor, in the carpeted, glass-walled "situation room," health officials scour computer maps of Mexico and hold video conferences to try to understand the spreading virus. Wall clocks track the time in Tijuana, Mexico City, Washington and Tokyo.

"We're mainly working on trying to improve the information we're getting," said Steve Waterman, a team leader at the CDC who is in Mexico.

"That's the big question. Is it stabilizing or not? And it's too early to say," he said. "But I think we're getting systems in place, so we're going to be able to get a handle on that soon. . . . I think we're getting closer to understanding the outbreak."

Mexican scientists said the virus has been spreading primarily within families and among co-workers, often in dense, poor neighborhoods of Mexico City. At one point last week, Health Ministry documents show, 77 percent of the confirmed swine flu cases were in Mexico City; if the surrounding state of Mexico were included, the proportion jumped to 93 percent.

"When you have this huge accumulation with crowded people in a rather small area, you have a greater opportunity to spread the disease," Lezana said. "Besides, it's an area -- in general -- of low-income, poor people, urban poor, very crowded, so those might be some of the main explanations for that."

The number of confirmed dead in Mexico stood at 19 on Saturday, unchanged from the day before, C?dova said at a news conference in Mexico City. Confirmed swine flu cases, including the deaths, rose from 397 to 473.

"We are in a stabilization phase," C?dova said Saturday. "It is too soon to say we are past the most complicated moment."

Make of any/all that what you will. Everything could change again in days of course. I still wonder how long Mexico can pretend that there's no flu in the Yuc-Pen. :shakehead: "Come on down; the water's fine! Yeah, right. While employees are ordered to keep quiet, and who knows what's happening out of site. I do like that most cafes in Cozumel seem to do their cooking in view of the customers.

[dive pro]

It's convenient to piss off the news media articles as inaccurate and it's true that they are often more interested in deadlines and selling news than achieving quality, but they are our best sources between WHO & CDC updates, which also tend to include limit info behind their announcements.

Dr Niman did forecast that the US would be well covered in cases within a couple of weeks, and he's seldom wrong in his decades of services....


From FluTracker (http://flutracker.rhizalabs.com/)

http://i43.tinypic.com/2nkriqb.jpg


From: Flu, Mostly Mild, Has Spread Across U.S., Officials Say (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/04/health/04flu.html?ref=global-home)

From: US flu tally jumps to 245 as labs catch up (http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jRff2g62rwBC48p3LyUUPxCg9HFAD97V4P401)


I'm sure many kids are enjoying their extra spring breaks as schools close all over, at the pain of working moms. Got to be rough on the school administration to cope; Texas is in the midst of TAKS testing that may even close some schools permantnetly because of poor results in recent years. Got to be traumatic on high school seniors missing the prom they've looked forward to for years. Can't help but wonder how much mischief the kids will get into on their breaks and how much flu they'll spread anyway.

Pig farmers have a new headache, not only dealing with idiots who stopped eating pork for no reason in all of this, but now protecting their herds from infection now that one Canadian farmer returned from Mexico and infected his herd.

A novel new tool in predicting spread is being considered and we may see more of this. From: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/04/health/04model.html?ref=global-homePredicting Flu With the Aid of (George) Washington


Some are commending Mexico for taking better actions that China with SARS, but that's probly more of Mexico couldn't hide it any longer. They had some months of warnings. From: In Mexico, an Unusual Flu Season Was a Sign of Something Ominous (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/02/AR2009050202306.html)

and


Make of any/all that what you will. Everything could change again in days of course. I still wonder how long Mexico can pretend that there's no flu in the Yuc-Pen. :shakehead: "Come on down; the water's fine! Yeah, right. While employees are ordered to keep quiet, and who knows what's happening out of site. I do like that most cafes in Cozumel seem to do their cooking in view of the customers.


Hola Don, thank you for your input, your info is always great specially last hurricane season, I am so looking forward for your research on the upcoming season, I believe you are a great researcher and your posts make sense, keep them coming, I am starting to feel like a fool because I post on WHO and what our govmnt says, I maybe wrong, but things here are calm kids out of school, no cinemas but grocery stores open and at hotels employees are wearing masks etc. but who knows what everyone is doing, all I know is there is no conspiracy from Cancun, this kind of things bring out the best and worst on people.....anyway thanks for input keep it coming have a nice night....:D

[MMM]

HOLA LAMONT I CLICKED ON YOUR LINK OF SECRETARIA DE SALUD AND THIS IS WHAT CAME UP AND I DID NOT ERASE ANYTHING, MAYBE I AM WRONG BUT I DID NOT READ ANY CASES OR THE NAME OF OUR STATE QUINTANA ROO OR MAYBE YOU CAN DIRECT ME WHERE IT SAYS CONFIRMED CASES OF QUINTANA ROO 1 BECAUSE I WOULD REALLY WANT TO KNOW IF STATE GOVMNT IS HIDING OR DOWN PLAYING THINGS AND I DO NOT WANT TO SEEM LIKE A FOOL

I checked it right after Lamont posted and there was one confirmed, no deaths on QRoo. Looks like the link or info on the link has changed. My Spanish isn't good enough to figure out where it might be elsewhere on the site. Why don't you send a question to the webmaster for the site?

[1KWIK_69]

Travel Health Warning
Travel Warning: H1N1 Flu (Swine Flu) and Severe Cases of Respiratory Illness in Mexico Avoid Nonessential Travel to Mexico
This information is current as of today, May 03, 2009 at 11:39 EDT
Updated: April 30, 2009

You probably missed that part, huh? That must make you feel, well, sucky, huh?


How many times are you going to post the same damn thing? Yes we've all seen this post from you over and over and over again! Enough already. You don't even bother to cite the source or post the link. That's funny.

All I'm saying is, Mexico is a really large chunk of real estate. Saying the whole thing is dangerous is very extreme. Like someone said about 40 pages ago, saying Cozumel has a high risk of infection because it's south of the border would be about the same as saying Key West is dangerous because there are a lot of cases in New York City.

I'm starting to think you either watched Stephan King's The Stand a few too many times, or you're one of those people that has an end of the world fetish. :shakehead:

[dive pro]

I checked it right after Lamont posted and there was one confirmed, no deaths on QRoo. Looks like the link or info on the link has changed. My Spanish isn't good enough to figure out where it might be elsewhere on the site. Why don't you send a question to the webmaster for the site?

I checked on newspapers wich I really do not like so much, and found out that there was a case several days ago, in CHetumal that is 350kms from Cancun, then there are different stories, 1.-the patient did not have the virus, he was sick from another illness 2.- the patient fully recovered, but no deaths are reported and maybe just maybe that is why the official Secretary of Health, Secretaria de Salud changed it.....but who knows....this is not my personal opinion like I stated before I do not like newspapers that much. But it seems to be a logical explanation, the state goverment still has their position of 00 cases no deaths in this state, 00 in yucatan as well but again who knows.....

[CozumelAntonio]

http://images0.cafepress.com/product/382891010v10_240x240_Front.jpg

[1KWIK_69]

One more thing to make you go hmmmmm....

If there's some massive government conspiracy to hide the truth, and there are in fact a bunch of H1N1 cases in Q Roo that aren't being reported because the Mexican officials don't want Mexico to lose tourism dollars, why aren't they also lying about the West Coast tourist desinations?????

[dive pro]

One more thing to make you go hmmmmm....

If there's some massive government conspiracy to hide the truth, and there are in fact a bunch of H1N1 cases in Q Roo that aren't being reported because the Mexican officials don't want Mexico to lose tourism dollars, why aren't they also lying about the West Coast tourist desinations?????

My fellow diver 1KWIK there is no point addressing this pilot fish person, there is no conspiracy, no plot, the source was a news media and like another fellow diver has said on this same forum thread to pilot fish, another one to the ignore list.....:D

[DandyDon]

Hola Don, thank you for your input, your info is always great specially last hurricane season, I am so looking forward for your research on the upcoming season, I believe you are a great researcher and your posts make sense, keep them coming, I am starting to feel like a fool because I post on WHO and what our govmnt says, I maybe wrong, but things here are calm kids out of school, no cinemas but grocery stores open and at hotels employees are wearing masks etc. but who knows what everyone is doing, all I know is there is no conspiracy from Cancun, this kind of things bring out the best and worst on people.....anyway thanks for input keep it coming have a nice night....:D

Haha, thanks but all I do is relay info I see on Tropical Weather : Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/) but surely you already have that book marked. Again, Lamont seems to have a better understanding of those, too. But so many board planes and fly into Caribbean destinations not knowing there is a hurricane coming as they just don't check local forecasts. Hell, I didn't when I was new to travel.

[dive pro]

http://images0.cafepress.com/product/382891010v10_240x240_Front.jpg

Hola Antonio you may want to put this on the other threads as well.....great post by the way

[1KWIK_69]

FYI I just purchased out tickets for July! The deal was too good to pass up!:D

[DandyDon]

FYI I just purchased out tickets for July! The deal was too good to pass up!:D
Super fares! Looks like Continental has canceled their second flight from IAH-CZM for a while, but hopes to keep it later in the summer. Not sure how long that is currently projected? Cont Air is now offering free changes to tickets to Mexico thru the end of May now. And there are still several flights a day IAH-Cancun; the bag drag is not horrible. Peeking at a flight IAH-CZM for May 6, looks like it's 2/3 full maybe from assigned seats, later flight canned.

Delta quit Lubbock a few years ago, but I've been able to get Continental to honor my Delta Platinum status well until the last trip. I had been careless about packing and boy did I get hit with overweight charges! Ouch. Since then, with Cont leaving the code sharing with Delta & Northwest, I was finally able to get Cont to give me Match Platinum status, at least for a while. :cool:

But now Delta/Northwest is finally back in Lubbock and developing some routes. At first their itineraries LBB-Cancun were awful and expensive but now show less than 7 hours travel time and same fare as Cont, even tho it seems funny to fly to Memphis Tenn first. Still, it's nice to have my old airline back in addition to my new one. :eyebrow: No way I could develop Elite status with an airline these days with my current travels, but my lifetime Platinum status with Delta seems secure. Arriving at CZM at 11:30am is preferable, but arriving Cancun at 1pm is doable.

It's going to be interesting to watch the various aspects of all this play out, to be sure.

[lamont]

I checked on newspapers wich I really do not like so much, and found out that there was a case several days ago, in CHetumal that is 350kms from Cancun, then there are different stories, 1.-the patient did not have the virus, he was sick from another illness 2.- the patient fully recovered, but no deaths are reported and maybe just maybe that is why the official Secretary of Health, Secretaria de Salud changed it.....but who knows....this is not my personal opinion like I stated before I do not like newspapers that much. But it seems to be a logical explanation, the state goverment still has their position of 00 cases no deaths in this state, 00 in yucatan as well but again who knows.....

When I made that post the page I linked to had a table listing of "casos confirmados" and "defunciones" and Q. Roo had 1 confirmed, 0 deaths. There was also a clickable imagemap of Mexico which let you click on Mexican states and see the cases+deaths. If they are using the WHO definition of "confirmed" then it should be laboratory-confirmed, rather than laboratory-suspected, or merely presumed based on symptomology and possible exposure -- and then very unlikely to be mistaken. The rest of their numbers sync up with the WHO statistics for laboratory confirmed cases.

And I'd assume someone just broke the web page or took it down to update the numbers.

If you look here on wikipedia:

2009 swine flu outbreak in Mexico - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_outbreak_in_Mexico)

It lists one confirmed case in Q.Roo. The reference is the disappearing web page though...

[lamont]

My fellow diver 1KWIK there is no point addressing this pilot fish person, there is no conspiracy, no plot, the source was a news media and like another fellow diver has said on this same forum thread to pilot fish, another one to the ignore list.....:D

"Secretaria de Salud" is the news media?

[lamont]

Here's a news media article on Q.Roo cases:

Diario de Quintana Roo - En duda, causa de muerte (http://www.dqr.com.mx/index.php/Othon-P.-Blanco/PrincipalOPB/En-duda-causa-de-muerte.html)

78 suspect cases in Q.Roo. And my spanish isn't good enough to figure it all out -- 2 cases that were normal influenza, so far? One death that they need 2 day to analyze the results?