The Swine Flu thing...

[lamont]

Looks like they just fixed the webpage:

Secretara de Salud (http://portal.salud.gob.mx/contenidos/noticias/influenza/estadisticas.html)

3 laboratory confirmed cases in Q.Roo now.

[Martha]

http://images0.cafepress.com/product/382891010v10_240x240_Front.jpg

Love it!

[Bandmom]

Here is the latest from WHO:

WHO | Influenza A(H1N1) - update 13 (http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_05_04/en/index.html)

4 May 2009 -- As of 06:00 GMT, 4 May 2009, 20 countries have officially reported 985 cases of influenza A (H1N1) infection.

Mexico has reported 590 laboratory confirmed human cases of infection, including 25 deaths. The higher number of cases from Mexico reflects ongoing testing of previously collected specimens. The United States has reported 226 laboratory confirmed human cases, including one death.

The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths - Austria (1), Canada (85), China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (1), Costa Rica (1), Colombia (1), Denmark (1), El Salvador (2), France (2), Germany (8), Ireland (1), Israel (3), Italy (1), Netherlands (1), New Zealand (4), Republic of Korea (1), Spain (40), Switzerland (1) and the United Kingdom (15).

There is no risk of infection from this virus from consumption of well-cooked pork and pork products.

It is considered prudent for people who are ill to delay international travel and for people developing symptoms following international travel to seek medical attention, in line with guidance from national authorities. Individuals are advised to wash hands thoroughly with soap and water on a regular basis and should seek medical attention if they develop any symptoms of influenza-like illness.

WHO advises no restriction of regular travel or closure of borders.

As noted, the higher number of deaths "lab confirmed" in Mexico are NOT new cases but cases that are just now being confirmed from samples previously sent in. It seems that the current deaths have leveled out. I have to wonder if the high number of deaths in the beginning was not a result of people not seeking medical attention until it was too late figuring it was "just a cold" or whatever. That would also explain why the new cases in all the other countries have not resulted in deaths. The "word" was out by the time it hit outside of Mexico and therefore everyone was more careful. The WHO has indicated in some interviews that they may be raising the warning from a 5 to a 6 but that it will not be need for panic since at this point it seems to be easily treated, etc. We have our first KY resident being treated in Georgia right now. We will be in Cozumel in June if I can keep all mine well.....lots of Vitamin C going around this house :D Hope all of you are well.

[pilot fish]

Calm down,ikwik. Someone misread it the first time I posted it, saying, that is old news. I reposted part of it to show that it was CURRENT, AS OF MAY 3. Hope that helps you understand. Might be better to read the thread more closely, ikwik, before getting so excited?




How many times are you going to post the same damn thing? Yes we've all seen this post from you over and over and over again! Enough already. You don't even bother to cite the source or post the link. That's funny.

All I'm saying is, Mexico is a really large chunk of real estate. Saying the whole thing is dangerous is very extreme. Like someone said about 40 pages ago, saying Cozumel has a high risk of infection because it's south of the border would be about the same as saying Key West is dangerous because there are a lot of cases in New York City.

I'm starting to think you either watched Stephan King's The Stand a few too many times, or you're one of those people that has an end of the world fetish. :shakehead:

[pilot fish]

One additional note for those that feel this is all hype and hysteria, telling divers to, " come on down, the water is warm and nothing really to worry about." You all might be inviting the flu to Coz and Cancun. Some of the people here in US, and elsewhere, MIGHT have no symptoms but be carrying the flu with them?

[sailldy67]

I wonder if there is a vaccine for testostreone poisoning...lol

[pilot fish]

I wonder if there is a vaccine for testostreone poisoning...lol


yeah, there is. It's called MARRIAGE:rofl3:

[parrotheaddiver]

yeah, there is. It's called MARRIAGE:rofl3:

Very Funny ;) you need to turn in your man card :D

[CozumelAntonio]

Love it!

On another board someone asked for a T-shirt so I got inspired...

Say NO to H1N1 Hype : Antonio's Cozumel - T shirts - Gifts - Souvenirs (http://www.cafepress.com/antonioscozumel/6692760)

http://images3.cafepress.com/product/382891013v5_150x150_Front.jpg

[pilot fish]

Very Funny ;) you need to turn in your man card :D

She took it the first week:rofl3:But I've learned new things, like the color sea foam and aquired a taste for granola and bean sprouts. :)

[Mawg]

Very Funny ;) you need to turn in your man card :D


Wasting your time Parrot. By now it should be clear to everyone that these people are only interested in one thing, ATTENTION. Very similar to a two year old throwing a tantrum. I'm 23 days out and counting.

[lamont]

Mexico has reported 590 laboratory confirmed human cases of infection, including 25 deaths.

up to 727 confirmed, 26 deaths now. still 3 in q. roo.

[DandyDon]

On another board someone asked for a T-shirt so I got inspired...
Nice. Are you doing this one too...?

...there will probably never be ONE SINGLE CASE of swine flu in Cozumel...

[WOODMAN]

On another board someone asked for a T-shirt so I got inspired...

Say NO to H1N1 Hype : Antonio's Cozumel - T shirts - Gifts - Souvenirs (http://www.cafepress.com/antonioscozumel/6692760)

http://images3.cafepress.com/product/382891013v5_150x150_Front.jpg

Interesting group of products. I think you missed an obvious choice, however.Where is the facemask with this printed on it?:D Woody

[Offroad]

I've been following this thread since my wife and I have tickets for our first trip to Cozumel in mid June.

This site was given a few pages back Diario de Quintana Roo - En duda, causa de muerte (http://www.dqr.com.mx/index.php/Othon-P.-Blanco/PrincipalOPB/En-duda-causa-de-muerte.html)

Translated to English it still reads a bit rough, but the best I can tell there are currently 78 "Probable" cases of H1N1 in Quintana Roo and two deaths. We are still planning on our trip and I'm not trying to add fuel to the flames already in this thread. Like everyone else I hope this calms down very soon so the locals in the area can get back to work, and the tourists can go enjoy themselves.

The babelfish site is here: Yahoo! Babel Fish - Text Translation and Web Page Translation (http://babelfish.yahoo.com/)

Here is the Spanish to English translation courtesy of babelfish:
From the translated pages you can navigate by using the previous and following buttons at the bottom of the page.


Page 1:



Now they are the 78 registered probable cases in Quintana Roo



By second consecutive day more suspicious cases of influenza human in the Organization appeared. Now the 78 probable cases registered in Quintana Roo are and not yet it settles down if the unique registered death is related to the virus that maintains in alert to all the country.
In press conference, the state secretary of Health (Sesa), Juan Carlos Azueta Cardinal red, assured that until yesterday they had not received the confirmation or refusal on the part of the National Institute of Diagnosis and Referencia Epidemiológica (INDRE) around if the death were by human virus of influenza.
As it is known, in the State three cases of influenza have been confirmed type To, although two of them corresponded to influenza seasonal and the third party, that caused the death of a man of 64 years, has not determined if it is or of the human or pig type as it were known him until it does not make a pair of days.
It is necessary to indicate that Thursday in the evening had made sure that in the State 68 suspicious cases existed, although in the press conference it was indicated that the number increased to 78, of which 54 samples already were solved and yesterday enters they are of influenza seasonal both.
At the moment, 24 samples are in process and one of them is the one of now passed away, the same one that were outside expected certain or not as human case of influenza yesterday.
In, Azueta as much Cardinal red it assured that they maintain a sanitary wall around the relatives of now passed away, in order to establish if some of them presents/displays symptoms of the disease.
So far, one yesterday announced that Quintana Roo already counts on 30 corporal temperature sensors, which will be distributed in the three airports of the State, hospitable terminals of buses and centers to determine with greater speed when a person is with temperature superior to the 38 degrees, that is one of the symptoms of influenza.
In spite of the 10 new suspicious cases, the state secretary of Health commented that tranquillity in the State exists, since three of the 14 patients who until were committed yesterday were registered, although a similar number entered to the hospitable centers.
These new income happened in the General Hospital of Chetumal (2) and the General Hospital of Felipe Cheek Port.
Of the rest of the committed patients it stood out that they maintain clinical an improvement important and all are stable, under well-taken care of and in observation.




Page 2:




Preventive measures in Quintana Roo are propped up much more

To date two deaths in Quintana Roo by the virus of influenza have been registered, although the results of the analyses will determine if they were as a result of human or the seasonal one, mentioned the Governor, Felix González Canto, during a meeting maintained with the industralists of the South in the audience of the Canaco-Servitur de Chetumal.
It said that the mentioned deceases were provoked in Cancún and in this city and the respective tests were sent to the Federal District for their study. “In the next days we will present which of the two was the cause”, it abounded.
He insisted that the Government of the State is struggling to give information precise to the society to avoid that the disinformation generates an uncertainty climate.
It mentioned like example that in last days, in the municipality of Solidarity, a person by a pulmonary complication passed away, “that person carried out four examinations to determine the causes to him, but to the day following the mass media published that it was four dead people. Things as these we are trying to avoid”, emphasized.
González Canto said that yesterday a person of 64 years with symptoms similar to those of the virus died in Cancún, but cannot confirm that it was as a result of it, until to confir itself to me.
In the evening of yesterday in press conference in Palace of Government, in the hall “Cradle the Mestization”, González Canto, reiterated that Quintana Roo counts on medecines sufficient to take care of the population in case of some emergencia, and that reinforced the preventive measures with the total closing of bars, bars, discotheques and cinemas in all the State.
Accompanied by municipal secretaries of the state cabinet, presidents, military administrations and legislative, González Canto it went deep on the decease in Cancún as a result of a pneumonia. “Still it is about to confirm itself if east suffering were by the virus influenza human. For this reason, the sample was sent to the City of Mexico for its analysis and the result will be had in next the 24 hours”, indicated.
The Governor of the State said, “meanwhile this case will be classified as a death related to the suspicion of a human case of influenza”.
It indicated that the protocolic measures have been taken to determine the contacts that this one person had, this, like preventive way in case was positive its analysis: “In Mexico there are signals that all the preventive measures that are had been applying, already are generating a result positive”, emphasized.
González Canto decreed before this contingency the closing of discotheques, bars, bars and cinemas, when representing a risk by means of the people agglomeration.
The Governor, in the same way, called to the enterprise sector and tourist to add itself to this contingency of health and, similarly he summoned, to maintain them the uses since the Government of the State will implement programs of support for those workers who do not have own entrance and depend, for example, of the gratuities like the meseros and another type of works.
Also, González Canto made extensive call to the enterprise and tourist sector to the calm, because this contingency could be lessen in the next days.
“It is important to stress that this virus and disease have cures and that in Quintana Roo, has sufficient medecines, antiviral the sufficient ones to be able to take care of some case that could be presented/displayed”, it mentioned.
It reiterated that the medicine available exists, sufficient and distributed in the different points from the State so that it can quickly arrive at the hospital or the clinic where some human case of influenza is reported and we pruned to treat it and to cure it of how we hoped to do it.
Felix González Canto, exhorted the population to stay in its homes, to ventilate its homes abriendo door and windows, since they are these some conditions to avoid a greater propagation of the virus of influenza human.
It commented that in all the structure of the Government of Quintana Roo and also of the municipalities the next Monday will be handled like unskillful day and also Tuesday; while personal of the sector health and Public Security, as well as other areas of Government will remain in their workings before this eventuality.
“We are exhorting the population to stay informed, to stay attempts to the average news, to stay pending of the information”, emphasized.
On the other hand, the state secretary of Health, Juan Carlos Azueta Cardinal red, aimed that at the moment the registry of 14 people like suspicious is had with the virus of influenza human, but not yet has been confirmed if the disease corresponds to this epidemic, for this reason, also have been sent the samples to the City of Mexico for its analysis and corroboración.
It commented that tests have been acquired to diagnose in a smaller time if treats or no, of the virus of influenza human; reason why it recommended the population that in case a person has the cough sufferings, problems to breathe and temperature arrives of the 38,5 degrees, must go of way immediate to the nearest hospital for his valuation.

[divebrasil]

Look what they are saying now.


U.S., Mexico Express Cautious Optimism on Flu Virus

After a week of alarming reports of a new strain of swine flu and the likelihood of a pandemic, Obama administration officials today said there are indications that the influenza will not prove to be as lethal as initially feared, and said there is no reason for healthy people to avoid traveling or to wear protective masks.

"We're seeing encouraging signs that this virus so far is not looking more severe than a strain that we would see in seasonal flu," said Richard Besser, acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, on "Fox News Sunday."

washingtonpost.com (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/03/AR2009050300791.html?hpid%3Dtopnews)

[lamont]

Look what they are saying now.


they have been saying that for a few days now. it started getting obvious that it was more like normal influenza when it started spreading in the US and the fatality rate and severity of symptoms was closer to the range of normal influenza...

[Aqua Safari]

These forums are fascinating. I'd forgotten how much so.

I had a client who crossed from the mainland to dive with us yesterday, Sunday May 3; and on the registration sheet noted he was taking Tamiflu, so I asked him. He said he was taking it prophylactically, prescribed by his doctor based on CDC recommendation. In effect he said that the risk of contamination is infinitesimal, lower than getting a winter flu or cold, but that better safe than sorry. Hmmm Sure, if you can get it; why not I guess.

I hear they are taking temperatures at the Cozumel airport; and wonder if that might not be a good idea permanently at airports around the world. Folks should probably not get on airplanes sick with a fever.

Will ours now become a whole new world?
Such as the world changed after 9/11?

Saludos from sunny Cozumel,
Bill

[mstevens]

It's influenza, people. Of *course* it's contagious! H1N1 isn't any more (or less) contagious than other forms of influenza and there isn't really much of anything to set it apart from other strains in terms of pathogenicity or disease course.

I will bet you that if the original outbreak had been in Germany or Italy or Canada we would barely have heard of it, if at all. This came right on the heels of the "Mexico is going to kill us all" drug cartel scare so it rode the tail of that hysteria to new heights.

I'm a physician who has several patients die each year of influenza (I treat the elderly). My wife is a molecular biologist who used to work with African hemorrhagic fever virus genome research. Each of us has plenty of respect for what viruses can do. Neither of us has seen or heard anything to make us think we need to do anything differently. The N95 face mask my hospital put on my desk is more dangerous to use than not to use since it fogs up my glasses and I can't properly see what I'm doing.

[Mawg]

It's influenza, people. Of *course* it's contagious! H1N1 isn't any more (or less) contagious than other forms of influenza and there isn't really much of anything to set it apart from other strains in terms of pathogenicity or disease course.

I will bet you that if the original outbreak had been in Germany or Italy or Canada we would barely have heard of it, if at all. This came right on the heels of the "Mexico is going to kill us all" drug cartel scare so it rode the tail of that hysteria to new heights.

I'm a physician who has several patients die each year of influenza (I treat the elderly). My wife is a molecular biologist who used to work with African hemorrhagic fever virus genome research. Each of us has plenty of respect for what viruses can do. Neither of us has seen or heard anything to make us think we need to do anything differently. The N95 face mask my hospital put on my desk is more dangerous to use than not to use since it fogs up my glasses and I can't properly see what I'm doing.

The voice of reason! How refreshing and unmistakeable. Had lunch with a friend over at NASA today who is in charge of the food research/dietary plan for shuttle/station and Mars exploration. One of the flight Doctors told her it was his opinion that the outbreak in Mexico City was heavier than elsewhere because of the very poor air quality in Mexico City. Peoples lungs there are already compromised/weakened from years of living there.

[lamont]

I will bet you that if the original outbreak had been in Germany or Italy or Canada we would barely have heard of it, if at all. This came right on the heels of the "Mexico is going to kill us all" drug cartel scare so it rode the tail of that hysteria to new heights.


Originally Mexico reported a 5% death rate and deaths among otherwise normally healthy people. That is why I freaked out, and why WHO and CDC sounded the alarm. Didn't matter which country it was coming from.

[lamont]

The voice of reason! How refreshing and unmistakeable. Had lunch with a friend over at NASA today who is in charge of the food research/dietary plan for shuttle/station and Mars exploration. One of the flight Doctors told her it was his opinion that the outbreak in Mexico City was heavier than elsewhere because of the very poor air quality in Mexico City. Peoples lungs there are already compromised/weakened from years of living there.

WHO already investigated for that and didn't find a correlation with bad air.

[jayjoans]

I hear they are taking temperatures at the Cozumel airport;
Bill

I think they took our temperature when we left Cozumel yesterday, either that or they just held a highlighter pen to our forehead.

Didn't bother me at all, but the rectal thermometer test we got upon arrival in Houston was a bit much.

[MMM]

I hear they are taking temperatures at the Cozumel airport; and wonder if that might not be a good idea permanently at airports around the world. Bill

That's a holdover from SARS. It was found an ineffective way of screening.

[sailldy67]

I'd be interested to know, of the people dying in Mexico, what their economic background is like. I know poorer people here have very unbalanced diet, very little fruit, unless free, almost no vegetables, except tomatoes and chilis. I know lots of families who live on tortillas, beans and eggs...who's kids go to school with chocolate milk as a nutritious breakfast. If the air quality has no effect on health, I would imagine bad nutrition may play a role.

[driftin' by]

I hear they are taking temperatures at the Cozumel airport; and wonder if that might not be a good idea permanently at airports around the world. Folks should probably not get on airplanes sick with a fever.

Just what we need... another delay at the airport! However, like with 9/11, if it keeps us safer, I'm all for it but I'm not sure this is the right approach. I seem to run hot at the airport because of aggravation. ;)

[Mawg]

If the air quality has no effect on health, ........


I've been sitting here for 10 minutes now trying to figure out how to respond to this. I know that you know better.

[dive pro]

"secretaria de salud" is the news media?

i never even considered referring to your post, i was talking about "the telegraph post not your post at all

[lamont]

I've been sitting here for 10 minutes now trying to figure out how to respond to this. I know that you know better.

WHO also already looked at air quality as a factor in mexico city and ruled it out.

Really, if this question was simple enough that a bunch of scubadivers (even including the odd medical person) online could find a solution, then the medical experts wouldn't still consider it to be puzzling.

I thought that last I read that WHO was guessing it had to do with reporting bias (many milder cases not being reported) and with delays in seeking treatment leading to a higher fatality rate.

[mstevens]

Originally Mexico reported a 5% death rate and deaths among otherwise normally healthy people. That is why I freaked out, and why WHO and CDC sounded the alarm. Didn't matter which country it was coming from.

Except that WHO and CDCP didn't at first sound the alarm particularly any more loudly than they have with numerous other health issues over the years. I read MWMR Weekly Reports well... weekly, and have for 20+ years. Sure, they're full of stuff about H1N1 NOW, but prior to the news blitz the reports were quite measured and reasonable - no "alarm" being sounded at all compared to other infectious disease groupings all year. Once the news media started bleating, responses from health organizations had to be louder just to be heard.

Yes, it seems noteworthy that initially a 5% death rate was reported, especially given the age group of those most effective (reminiscent of the "Spanish 'flu" of 1918). However, there was a 75% death rate in crashes on our local highways over the weekend. That's 3 dead in a 2-car crash involving 2 people in each car. That's the problem with small samples: they don't provide statistically significant information. You'll note that as the number of reported infections increases the death rate within Mexico has been dropping. What that means is that as sample size increases we're getting a better picture of the real risks.

To me the scariest part is that the public health measures that authorities all over, including Mexico have been pushing are for the most part very basic, yet we tend not to follow them unless we're terrified of dying. The biggest example is staying home when you're sick - Americans tend to view showing up for work snorfling and horking as some sort of badge of honor.

I promise you more healthy young Mexicans have died of not wearing seatbelts, smoking, drinking, or even using ladders this year than of H1N1 influenza and you don't hear anyone panicking about that.

[mstevens]

I read that WHO was guessing it had to do with reporting bias (many milder cases not being reported) and with delays in seeking treatment leading to a higher fatality rate.

Exactly. Establishing just what virus caused a case of influenza is far from trivial and is not routinely done. It's not like culturing bacteria, either, and takes quite some time to do. The symptoms all pretty much look the same unless someone gets into serious distress (this outbreak was originally reported simply as a cluster of severe respiratory illness), which means that at first only the most serious cases even get reported at all.

[dive pro]

Hola to all, had an awesome dive today saw a huge loggerhead turtle, but guess what???
Heeeeere's Jooohnny, State Government office, not the Por esto news paper, has issued a report as follows:
1 case in Chetumal, cured back home, 1 case in Felipe Carrillo puerto not confirmed Influenza A, 1 case in Cancun they had since the 23rd with synthoms but had not confirmed and reconfirmed, was sent home cured, there are other cases being studied (no numbers) that is it.

My personal thinking, I checked on my personal insurance coverage, hospitals etc. I called a family member about the treatment in case I got it and I wash hands a lot I insist that staff and divers wash them and use the hand sanitizer or alcohol at the shop. I still think it is no time to freak out or anything we keep confirming and getting reservations for several weeks to follow, also we have gotten cancelations, several of them.
Here is the World's Health Org. update for today May 4th my bday too......they still have no restrictions to traveling

Influenza A(H1N1) - update 14
4 May 2009 -- As of 18:00 GMT, 4 May 2009, 21 countries have officially reported 1085 cases of influenza A (H1N1) infection.

Mexico has reported 590 laboratory confirmed human cases of infection, including 25 deaths. The United States has reported 286 laboratory confirmed human cases, including one death.

The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths - Austria (1), Canada (101), China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (1), Costa Rica (1), Colombia (1), Denmark (1), El Salvador (2), France (4), Germany (8), Ireland (1), Israel (4), Italy (2), Netherlands (1), New Zealand (6), Portugal (1), Republic of Korea (1), Spain (54), Switzerland (1) and the United Kingdom (18).

It is considered prudent for people who are ill to delay international travel and for people developing symptoms following international travel to seek medical attention, in line with guidance from national authorities. Individuals are advised to wash hands thoroughly with soap and water on a regular basis and should seek medical attention if they develop any symptoms of influenza-like illness.

WHO advises no restriction of regular travel or closure of borders.

There is no risk of infection from this virus from consumption of well-cooked pork and pork products.

Further information on the situation will be available on the WHO website on a regular basis.

Related links
Influenza A(H1N1) web site
Daily updates will be posted on this site.






Corporate linksContacts | E-mail scams | Employment | FAQs | Feedback | Privacy | RSS feeds
Ž© WHO 2009

[lamont]

Except that WHO and CDCP didn't at first sound the alarm particularly any more loudly than they have with numerous other health issues over the years. I read MWMR Weekly Reports well... weekly, and have for 20+ years. Sure, they're full of stuff about H1N1 NOW, but prior to the news blitz the reports were quite measured and reasonable - no "alarm" being sounded at all compared to other infectious disease groupings all year. Once the news media started bleating, responses from health organizations had to be louder just to be heard.


yeah, but you're just pointing out that the media loves a good panic.



Yes, it seems noteworthy that initially a 5% death rate was reported, especially given the age group of those most effective (reminiscent of the "Spanish 'flu" of 1918). However, there was a 75% death rate in crashes on our local highways over the weekend. That's 3 dead in a 2-car crash involving 2 people in each car. That's the problem with small samples: they don't provide statistically significant information. You'll note that as the number of reported infections increases the death rate within Mexico has been dropping. What that means is that as sample size increases we're getting a better picture of the real risks.


you're pointing out what became obvious almost immediately after cases started showing up in the US.



To me the scariest part is that the public health measures that authorities all over, including Mexico have been pushing are for the most part very basic, yet we tend not to follow them unless we're terrified of dying. The biggest example is staying home when you're sick - Americans tend to view showing up for work snorfling and horking as some sort of badge of honor.


i won't argue with you there. we just got done with normal seasonal influenza season (peaked late in WA state) and tons of people were showing up to work when they should have stayed home. the recession doesn't help since there's not enough people to pick up the slack.



I promise you more healthy young Mexicans have died of not wearing seatbelts, smoking, drinking, or even using ladders this year than of H1N1 influenza and you don't hear anyone panicking about that.

yeah, but big picture since influenza kills 36,000 a year in the US that actually cuts both ways. yes, it doesn't mean we need to panic about the deaths now, but next flu season we could risk a 2-3x uptick in fatalities which is an excess of 30,000-60,000 deaths and its perfectly appropriate to take a more aggressive approach to influenza next year -- get as many people as possible vaccinated and raise awareness about staying home and not spreading the virus. the southern hemisphere influenza season could also be a bad one this year since a vaccine will probably not be produced in time. it isn't anything worrying for normal, healthy people but they can take steps to reduce the impact to their productivity from influenza next year and take steps to reduce their spreading the virus into vulnerable populations.

[Mawg]

..........................................


You have a private message.

[lamont]

You have a private message.

read, understood and ignored.

go to "user CP", click on "edit ignore list" and add "lamont" to your list.

cheers.

[pilot fish]

What I find sad about some of the posts from the" this is no big deal " crowd, is they seem to be oblivious, or ignorant, to the meaning of the word CONTAGION = 1. the communication of disease by direct or indirect contact.
2. a disease so communicated.
3. the medium by which a contagious disease is transmitted.
4. harmful or undesirable contact or influence.
5. the ready transmission or spread as of an idea or emotion from person to person: a contagion of indifference

[Mawg]

read, understood and ignored.

go to "user CP", click on "edit ignore list" and add "lamont" to your list.

cheers.



I would have expected nothing less from you. Now it is there for all to see.

[DandyDon]

I hear they are taking temperatures at the Cozumel airport; and wonder if that might not be a good idea permanently at airports around the world. Folks should probably not get on airplanes sick with a fever.

Will ours now become a whole new world?
Such as the world changed after 9/11?

Saludos from sunny Cozumel,
Bill
Sounds like a good idea, huh?

WHO already investigated for that and didn't find a correlation with bad air.
Yeah, I tried to suggest air quality in Mexico City a week ago, and while it is bad and must affect overall health, the real experts can tell the difference on how other flu strains have affected the population.

I think they took our temperature when we left Cozumel yesterday, either that or they just held a highlighter pen to our forehead.

Didn't bother me at all, but the rectal thermometer test we got upon arrival in Houston was a bit much.
TSA getting jollies again? :rofl3:

That's a holdover from SARS. It was found an ineffective way of screening.
Like I said, sounded like a good idea. False Science often does.

Just what we need... another delay at the airport! However, like with 9/11, if it keeps us safer, I'm all for it but I'm not sure this is the right approach. I seem to run hot at the airport because of aggravation. ;)
:eyebrow: Haha you think that the TSA screening is safer? Say, I got an email from Nigeria and I need some venture capital. We can be rich. Interested?

read, understood and ignored.

go to "user CP", click on "edit ignore list" and add "lamont" to your list.

cheers.

:lol:
I've been looking for improvements to make from this learning experience. My favorite all-you-can-eat cafeteria chain where I've been eating off and on for 50 years started putting sani-wipes out at the end of the start of the buffet line finally, so you can wash your hands before handling your food, rather than waiting until you get to your table...


Click any pic for larger...
58931

It was empty...!

58932

I used my bottle of sani-fluid I've started carrying and ordered from this fellow, who may not have the mask concept down yet...

58933

But we're still organizing ideas... :crafty:

[dive pro]

"secretaria de salud" is the news media?

you have a pm

[pilot fish]

It's winding down, thank God. Hope this decrease keeps up. It should.


Napolitano: H1N1 seems no worse than regular flu The swine flu virus that has sparked fear and precautions worldwide appears to be no more dangerous than the regular flu virus that makes its rounds each year, U.S. officials said Monday. "The severity of the flu -- how sick you get -- is not stronger than regular seasonal flu," Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said as the worldwide number of confirmed cases of 2009 H1N1 flu topped 1,085. full story

[TheDavil]

It's winding down, thank God.

Too little, too late for me, though. Continental just called and they have cancelled our flights to/from Coz 5/16-5/23. They *might* have flights to/from Cancun 5/17-5/25.

Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.

David

[Christi]

Too little, too late for me, though. Continental just called and they have cancelled our flights to/from Coz 5/16-5/23. They *might* have flights to/from Cancun 5/17-5/25.

Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.

David

I know they've rescheduled and consolidated some flights, but they aren't canceling flights in here all together. Check with them again.

[Mawg]

It's winding down, thank God. Hope this decrease keeps up. It should.


.............

[Christi]

It's winding down, thank God. Hope this decrease keeps up. It should.


Napolitano: H1N1 seems no worse than regular flu The swine flu virus that has sparked fear and precautions worldwide appears to be no more dangerous than the regular flu virus that makes its rounds each year, U.S. officials said Monday. "The severity of the flu -- how sick you get -- is not stronger than regular seasonal flu," Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said as the worldwide number of confirmed cases of 2009 H1N1 flu topped 1,085. full story

They've been saying this for several days!!!!!!!! It's the point SEVERAL of us have been trying to make! But I guess if you'd been posting and reading CURRENT updates you'd know that.

[dive pro]

HOLA EVERYONE ABOUT THE CASES I MENTIONED BEFORE IN QUINTANA ROO, THEY WERE ALL ATTENDED ON TIME AND NO DEATHS NOR OTHER CASES REPORTED

REPORTE DE LA OFICINA DE COMUNICACION SOCIAL DEL HONORABLE GOBIERNO DEL ESTADO DE QUINTANA ROO
FROM THE OFFICE OF SOCIAL COMMUNICATION OF THE HONORABLE GOVERNMENT OF THE STATE OF QUINTANA ROO
04 de Mayo del 2009 | 12:09

CHETUMAL, Q. Roo.- El Instituto Nacional de Diagnóstico y Referencia Epidemiológica reportó tres casos positivos de influenza humana en Quintana Roo, cuyos pacientes ya fueron dados de alta.

En un comunicado, el secretario estatal de Salud, Juan Carlos Azueta Cárdenas, explicó que los enfermos fueron detectados en Chetumal, Felipe Carrillo Puerto y Cancún por la campaña normal de detección oportuna de casos de influenza.

De ahí, abundó, se les aplicó el tratamiento apropiado, en la primera fase de la enfermedad, en la que es primordial la atención inmediata. Señaló que tras el tratamiento adecuado y oportuno se encuentran bien de salud, recuperados totalmente y libres de contagio.

El funcionario estatal dijo que con los antivirales aplicados han creado anticuerpos que les permiten no volver a contraer el virus ni ser fuente de contagio.

Destacó que debido a la intensa campaña de monitoreo y análisis permanente que mantiene el Comité Estatal para la Seguridad en Salud, se atendieron a estas tres personas y en menos de 72 horas luego de su ingreso a los hospitales, recibieron los medicamentos y reaccionaron de manera favorable.


]TRANSLATION:
THE NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF REFERENCE AND EPIDEMIOLOGY DIAGNOSTICS REPORTED 3 CASES THAT WERE RELEASED FROM HOSPITALS.
THE STATE SECRETARY OF HEALTH EXPLAINED THAT THE ILL CASES REPORTED WERE 1 IN CHETUMAL, 1 IN CARRILLO PUERTO AND 1 IN CANCUN DUE TO THE CAMPAIGN OF EARLY DETECTION OF HUMAN INFLUENZA.
FROM THERE HE SAID THAT THEY WERE TREATED WITH APPROPIEDLY ON THE 1ST STAGE OF THE ILLNESS ON WHAT IS IMPORTANT THE IMMEDIATE ATTENTION, HE REPORTED THAT AFTER THE PROPER TREATMENT THEY ARE HEALTHY AND SAFE AND NON CONTAGIOUS RECUPERATED TOTALLY. THE STATE SECRETARY OF HEALTH ALSO SAID THAT THE TREATMENT PERMITS THEM TO BE FREE OF THE VIRUS AND TO GET IT AGAIN. DUE TO THE CAMPAIGN OF DETECTION AND PERMANENT ANALYSIS FROM THE HEALTH SECURITY HEALTH COMITEE, 72 HOURS AFTER THIS 3 PEOPLE CAME IN HOSPITALS THEY RECEIVED MEDICATION AND REACTED FAVORABLY.

[pilot fish]

They've been saying this for several days!!!!!!!! It's the point SEVERAL of us have been trying to make! But I guess if you'd been posting and reading CURRENT updates you'd know that.

um, no she just said it today. Did you know all this before she did? :D


"The measures we have taken, and above all the public's reaction, have led to an improvement," Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard said at a news conference.

"But I insist that the virus is still present, that we need to remain on alert, and the resumption of activities will be little by little, not all at once."

[Mawg]

I know they've rescheduled and consolidated some flights, but they aren't canceling flights in here all together. Check with them again.


That's what happened to our flight on the 26th., Christi. They consolidated 2 flights and put everyone on 1 plane for that day going to Cozumel. What a shame.

[DandyDon]

I mentioned the Continental cuts backs days ago, and again in more detail last night. :silly: One plane I looked at this week was only 2/3 full after combining. Can't ask them to fly empty planes @ $300 RT including taxes.

Cancun hotel occupancy is less than half. Many people are just not ready.

As far as how bad this is, how seriously to take it - I am not qualified to tell the CDC. For those of you who know more than they do, please do let them know you are available to help them. ;)

[TheDavil]

I know they've rescheduled and consolidated some flights, but they aren't canceling flights in here all together. Check with them again.

I don't remember what the actual wording that he used was, but the upshot is that we no longer have a flight and all the other flights direct to Coz are extremely oversold so we couldn't get on any of those, either. Our best shot is going to be flying in and out of Cancun. Not optimal, but if we can make it work, that's what we'll do. Next flights that they had in/out of Coz for us were early June, but that's a non-player due to time constraints...

[Christi]

um, no she just said it today. Did you know all this before she did? :D


"The measures we have taken, and above all the public's reaction, have led to an improvement," Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard said at a news conference.

"But I insist that the virus is still present, that we need to remain on alert, and the resumption of activities will be little by little, not all at once."

WHO and CDC reports as well as numerous statements by other medical professionals have been mentioning this for several days - but you wouldn't see that info if you're cherry picking through only to find the doom and gloom!

BTW - if you're going to quote someone, you should cite your source!

[Christi]

I don't remember what the actual wording that he used was, but the upshot is that we no longer have a flight and all the other flights direct to Coz are extremely oversold so we couldn't get on any of those, either. Our best shot is going to be flying in and out of Cancun. Not optimal, but if we can make it work, that's what we'll do. Next flights that they had in/out of Coz for us were early June, but that's a non-player due to time constraints...

Well hat doens't make sense...if they cannot re accommodate the passengers they have, then it's time for them to open up another flight! :) That tells me that not everyone is afraid of getting the flu!

[pilot fish]

Sweetie, you're the Queen of cherry picking things that help your business.;) Read below, that is why we urged extra caution. And, yes, we did not want YOU to get sick either.:blinking:


"In 1918, the Spanish flu showed a surge in the spring and then disappeared in the summer months, only to return in the autumn of 1918 with a vengeance," WHO spokesman Gregory Hartl said Sunday. "And we know that that eventually killed 40 million to 50 million people



WHO and CDC reports as well as numerous statements by other medical professionals have been mentioning this for several days - but you wouldn't see that info if you're cherry picking through only to find the doom and gloom!

[dive pro]

WHO and CDC reports as well as numerous statements by other medical professionals have been mentioning this for several days - but you wouldn't see that info if you're cherry picking through only to find the doom and gloom!

BTW - if you're going to quote someone, you should cite your source!

Thank You Very Much:D

[DandyDon]

There are a couple of seats open on this, if you hurry...

http://i39.tinypic.com/1fiwpx.jpg

[C-stone]

Current cases of swine flu stands at about 1000 people. The overall fatality rate of swine flu so far has been fairly low, with most people not even being put in the hospital.

The rough average amount of people struck by lighting yearly is 1190.

Yeah I would say the odds of getting swine flu are pretty low.

[TheDavil]

There are a couple of seats open on this, if you hurry...


Thanks Don - just did the search and they don't show up. The only flights that are showing up are flying through Detroit, etc., and then back to Houston, then CZM, arriving the next day.

This sucks.

Edit: just realized that your post was thru Cancun. That flight's booked now, too, though. My original flight suddenly showed back up on their website as available, but when I called, they said "Nope, it may show up, but it's been canceled". They can reschedule us through Cancun, but we've got to change the date by a day or two. That's do-able, but I'm waiting to hear back from dive op/hotel to see if that works for them.

[TheDavil]

Well hat doens't make sense...if they cannot re accommodate the passengers they have, then it's time for them to open up another flight! :) That tells me that not everyone is afraid of getting the flu!

I agree. The guy that called said that they might be adding back more flights as things clear up, but that he can't guarantee anything.

There aren't many industries where the consumer can buy and pay for something, then have the provider call and say "we've changed our mind, you can't have it because we we've since decided that our profit won't be high enough". The airline industry is a strange beast all around.

[DandyDon]

Thanks Don - just did the search and they don't show up. The only flights that are showing up are flying through Detroit, etc., and then back to Houston, then CZM, arriving the next day.

This sucks.
May I suggest you phone them ASAP: 800-525-0280 - it'd be fast than a computer lesson. :D

I suspect that you searched for Cozumel only, without nearby airports? If I am correct, search again with nearby airports allowed, or for Cancun, or just call them!!

They may be playing with the flights as we speak and maybe they weren't there, but they still are for me. Ask them.

Oh look, I think maybe they're loading new flights. This just appeared, into Cozumel! Call them! The agent will know more! This keeps changing as I look, but talk to them! It is tougher on a weekend like that, and just adding another plane is easier said than done, but there are flights...!!

http://i39.tinypic.com/14weufo.jpg

[dive pro]

May I suggest you phone them ASAP: 800-525-0280 - it'd be fast than a computer lesson. :D

I suspect that you searched for Cozumel only, without nearby airports? If I am correct, search again with nearby airports allowed, or for Cancun, or just call them!!

They may be playing with the flights as we speak and maybe they weren't there, but they still are for me. Or maybe it's allowing me more because of my Platinum status, but ask them.

Oh look, I think maybe they're loading new flights. This just appeared, into Cozumel! Call them! The agent will know more...!

http://i39.tinypic.com/14weufo.jpg



Man I tell you Don you are always on top of things, thanks for all your info.....wow U R the man:cool3::cool3: this info will help a couple of clients of mine. Thank you.

[DandyDon]

Man I tell you Don you are always on top of things, thanks for all your info.....wow U R the man:cool3::cool3: this info will help a couple of clients of mine. Thank you.

Oh it keeps changing as I look, and it may do the same to the agent - but s/he can make it work. The divers need to get on the phones and stay on the phone until it works, not shop around online. ;)

[driftin' by]

I've been sitting here for 10 minutes now trying to figure out how to respond to this. I know that you know better.

Lol... I actually keyed a response then took 10 minutes to erase it in fear of getting banned from SB for not playing nice. But I so badly wanted to tear that one apart. I believe the lack of response to such idiotic babel is response enough. ;)


They've been saying this for several days!!!!!!!! It's the point SEVERAL of us have been trying to make! But I guess if you'd been posting and reading CURRENT updates you'd know that.


um, no she just said it today. Did you know all this before she did? :D

Though it was common knowledge Friday!?!?! Obama said something to the fact on Friday as well.


Sweetie, you're the Queen of cherry picking things that help your business.;) Read below, that is why we urged extra caution. And, yes, we
did not want YOU to get sick either.:blinking:

Aw, that's it... I've had enough already! Now that is just downright condescending and disrespectful!!! Why don't you ease up! It's been said a zillion times here how this whole thing is going to have unfathomable long lasting economic impacts to the all those that earn their livelihood on tourism in Mexico and the largely non-impacted Yucatan Peninsula. Your tone and attitude does little to put the lost income back into Christi's pocket for what has ultimately turned out to be mass media's, over-blown, exaggerated, hyped-up coverage in the wake of any political scandals or celebrity breakups nothing short or crying fire in a crowded theater. BTW... when you say "that is why we urged extra caution", do you represent WHO, CDC, US or Mexican Governments? All you did while representing "we" with all your well-intentioned ca-ca being flung about in the face of fun-loving, Coz lovers willing to throw caution to the wind and enjoy life for all it's worth in spite of all your doomsday prophecy. Get over yourself already... nobody asked you to save us all!

[driftin' by]

Haha you think that the TSA screening is safer? Say, I got an email from Nigeria and I need some venture capital. We can be rich. Interested?
Sounds like you're referring to the Homeland Security Administration when it comes to emails from Nigeria? I didn't say anything about being safer in regards to the current TSA Screening that is in effect. It's a good idea which I can get behind, but unfortunately, poorly executed.

[DandyDon]

I think maybe things are changing. I hope you're on this phone. This just showed up right into Cozumel airport and out. BTW, a key word to use often when asking for changes is "Can you accommodate me? That word seems to have a special meaning; you'll see it used on their site at times; it got me out of Cancun while hundreds were waiting for flights once. ;)

http://i41.tinypic.com/mh4t9j.jpg

[driftin' by]

Too little, too late for me, though. Continental just called and they have cancelled our flights to/from Coz 5/16-5/23. They *might* have flights to/from Cancun 5/17-5/25.

Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.

David


I know they've rescheduled and consolidated some flights, but they aren't canceling flights in here all together. Check with them again.

Makes perfect sense... As is, Continental runs 3 flights down daily. If they can save a trip by consolidating, why not? No one should expect a boat in Coz to take you, the only paid diver, to a site. That is why it's called commercial air, not private. Keep checking and stop sniffing, David... I'm sure something will turn up. :cool2:

[pilot fish]

Your tone and attitude does little to put the lost income back into Christi's pocket for what has ultimately turned out to be mass media's, over-blown, exaggerated, hyped-up coverage in the wake of any political scandals or celebrity breakups nothing short or crying fire in a crowded theater.

uh, I didn't realize THAT was what it was all about? Sheeeeesh, all this was just hype to scare people? Thanks for clearing that up

[Firefyter]

Aw, that's it... I've had enough already! Now that is just downright condescending and disrespectful!!! Why don't you ease up! It's been said a zillion times here how this whole thing is going to have unfathomable long lasting economic impacts to the all those that earn their livelihood on tourism in Mexico and the largely non-impacted Yucatan Peninsula. Your tone and attitude does little to put the lost income back into Christi's pocket for what has ultimately turned out to be mass media's, over-blown, exaggerated, hyped-up coverage in the wake of any political scandals or celebrity breakups nothing short or crying fire in a crowded theater. BTW... when you say "that is why we urged extra caution", do you represent WHO, CDC, US or Mexican Governments? All you did while representing "we" with all your well-intentioned ca-ca being flung about in the face of fun-loving, Coz lovers willing to throw caution to the wind and enjoy life for all it's worth in spite of all your doomsday prophecy. Get over yourself already... nobody asked you to save us all!

Josh, just put PiFi on ignore like lots of us have. Trying to reason with him is like trying to teach a pig how to sing, it's just gonna frustrate the he** out of you and the pig still can't sing a note. It only took a short dialog with him for me to see why so many ignore him and why he's had so many Scubaboard vacations. It just isn't worth getting your blood pressure up trying to accomplish the impossible.

[pilot fish]

for someone that has me on ignore, you respond to a lot of my posts. :laughing:

[DandyDon]

for someone that has me on ignore, you respond to a lot of my posts. :laughing:
No, they still see you quoted a lot.

[MMM]

It's been said a zillion times here how this whole thing is going to have unfathomable long lasting economic impacts to the all those that earn their livelihood on tourism in Mexico and the largely non-impacted Yucatan Peninsula. Your tone and attitude does little to put the lost income back into Christi's pocket for what has ultimately turned out to be mass media's, over-blown, exaggerated, hyped-up coverage

In a public health episode, economic impacts take a back seat to health risks. Nobody ever thanked public health for putting economic interests first. Public health tries to be responsible, explaining risk degrees and risk mitigation.

I don't think mass media have overblown it although the coverage has been intense. In a public health issue, officials rely heavily on media to get info out quickly. When it's been as fast breaking and evolving as this one has been there are bound to be errors and mis-interpretation. However I think the biggest problems arise when political arms of government do things other than recommended by medical officials like slaughter pigs in the country or quarantine school kids visiting China b/c they are from a country with positive cases even though asymptiomatic. The media are simply reporting which is their jobs - not to interpret.

All the public health folks have been preaching is good infection prevention/control which will be good in the long trm regarding any possible pandemic. They are our best possible defense.

I agree with the WHO regarding travel bans (no point) especially now that the virus is showing up worldwide. Infection control/prevention is the most NB! We'll see if that message sticks but I expect everyone will see much more of it as we wait to see if there is a 2nd, more serious wave later this year. If there is, it will mostassuredly be international in nature.

[driftin' by]

The media are simply reporting which is their jobs - not to interpret.
You're right and you make a lot of good points. I just don't think the media does their job very well... Lots of interpretation left up to them. YMMV And I'd never suggest that economic impact take a back seat to public health... I just think cooler heads would have prevailed. Of course, hindsight is always 20/20. :wink:


Josh, just put PiFi on ignore like lots of us have. Trying to reason with him is like trying to teach a pig how to sing, it's just gonna frustrate the he** out of you and the pig still can't sing a note. It only took a short dialog with him for me to see why so many ignore him and why he's had so many Scubaboard vacations. It just isn't worth getting your blood pressure up trying to accomplish the impossible.

lol, Well put! I've been taking the proverbial high-road reading this for over a week now... all 562 posts until I broke. I've never dived with Christi, never met her in person and never spent one dime with her well established dive op in Coz but here on SB I consider her a friend and a highly valued contributor in the Coz forum. I just couldn't sit here a read that flagrant condescending disrespect towards her. :no:

It's apparent that this thread has spun out of control especially in light of the weakening situation only providing a forum for which one can increase their post count... Okay, guilty as charged. :cool2: It's no doubt pertinent information but it's difficult to sift through it all. Perhaps it's time to put this thread to rest? I know I'm going to.

[dive pro]

Lol... I actually keyed a response then took 10 minutes to erase it in fear of getting banned from SB for not playing nice. But I so badly wanted to tear that one apart. I believe the lack of response to such idiotic babel is response enough. ;)





Though it was common knowledge Friday!?!?! Obama said something to the fact on Friday as well.



Aw, that's it... I've had enough already! Now that is just downright condescending and disrespectful!!! Why don't you ease up! It's been said a zillion times here how this whole thing is going to have unfathomable long lasting economic impacts to the all those that earn their livelihood on tourism in Mexico and the largely non-impacted Yucatan Peninsula. Your tone and attitude does little to put the lost income back into Christi's pocket for what has ultimately turned out to be mass media's, over-blown, exaggerated, hyped-up coverage in the wake of any political scandals or celebrity breakups nothing short or crying fire in a crowded theater. BTW... when you say "that is why we urged extra caution", do you represent WHO, CDC, US or Mexican Governments? All you did while representing "we" with all your well-intentioned ca-ca being flung about in the face of fun-loving, Coz lovers willing to throw caution to the wind and enjoy life for all it's worth in spite of all your doomsday prophecy. Get over yourself already... nobody asked you to save us all!

:clapping::clapping::clapping:BRAVO, BRAVO WOW ALL MY RESPECT TO YOU, WHEN YOU COME TO CANCUN PM ME DIVES AND BEER ON ME, :D:D:clapping::clapping:

[TheDavil]

I think maybe things are changing. I hope you're on this phone. This just showed up right into Cozumel airport and out. BTW, a key word to use often when asking for changes is "Can you accommodate me? That word seems to have a special meaning; you'll see it used on their site at times; it got me out of Cancun while hundreds were waiting for flights once. ;)

http://i41.tinypic.com/mh4t9j.jpg

That itinerary is actually what my original one was. I've been on the phone with these people four times so far because that flight keeps popping up as available. Each time they tell me that the website information just hasn't been updated and that the 12:20 flight has been canceled. Even using 'accomodate' hasn't made the flight available...

Edit: Also - If you try to go ahead and book that flight online, it lets you get all the way through the reservation process, including taking your payment info, before it errors out. Seems to me that's a design flaw.

[DandyDon]

That itinerary is actually what my original one was. I've been on the phone with these people four times so far because that flight keeps popping up as available. Each time they tell me that the website information just hasn't been updated and that the 12:20 flight has been canceled. Even using 'accomodate' hasn't made the flight available...

Edit: Also - If you try to go ahead and book that flight online, it lets you get all the way through the reservation process, including taking your payment info, before it errors out. Seems to me that's a design flaw.
Ok, hard to say why that flight shows up at times.

Did you ask for the Continental.com help desk?

You might even book & pay for it while you have them online, as you have 24 hours to cancel with refund, I think.

Did you ask about Cancun...?

Well, I know yo can get fly Cancun if you want to...??

[ScubaTony]

Swine flu no worse than regular flu, Napolitano says - CNN.com (http://tinyurl.com/clkd2b)

I think this link might sum up the reality of this thing. Plus I think the dead horse deserves a good spanking!

[John_B]

Cont Air is now offering free changes to tickets to Mexico thru the end of May now.
Unfortunately, it looks like my seat in a couple of weeks will wind up being available. Whether or not I want to go... :depressed:


But now Delta/Northwest is finally back in Lubbock and developing some routes. At first their itineraries LBB-Cancun were awful and expensive but now show less than 7 hours travel time and same fare as Cont, even tho it seems funny to fly to Memphis Tenn first. Still, it's nice to have my old airline back in addition to my new one. :eyebrow:
Apropos of nuthin': The nice thing about Delta was getting two free bags on international flights (including Central America), but as part of their lastest cost cutting measures it seems like that might be going away. :(

[Bandmom]

It's apparent that this thread has spun out of control............Perhaps it's time to put this thread to rest?

Totally agree....I was originally checking to get updated information but it has become somewhat disturbing to read......EVERYONE on here was SO NICE with helping me get my June vacation together. I hate to see it get like this....might be a good time to stop...

:deadhorse:

[Sue Sue]

Bandmom, No worries, most folks are nice here...Most also contribute in a positive manner. What is sad is that some lose site of the main purpose of posting opinion, discussing it and then allowing people to make up there own minds. Unfortunately, some people are just rude and insulting. Time to start a new thread. Sue

[lamont]

Current cases of swine flu stands at about 1000 people. The overall fatality rate of swine flu so far has been fairly low, with most people not even being put in the hospital.

The rough average amount of people struck by lighting yearly is 1190.

Yeah I would say the odds of getting swine flu are pretty low.

I would bet the odds of getting swine flu are probably 50/50 for the entire population of the world over the next 2-3 years.

It doesn't look like its something to lose sleep over though...

[1KWIK_69]

It's winding down, thank God. Hope this decrease keeps up. It should.


Napolitano: H1N1 seems no worse than regular flu The swine flu virus that has sparked fear and precautions worldwide appears to be no more dangerous than the regular flu virus that makes its rounds each year, U.S. officials said Monday. "The severity of the flu -- how sick you get -- is not stronger than regular seasonal flu," Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said as the worldwide number of confirmed cases of 2009 H1N1 flu topped 1,085. full story

Are you sure????

How do we know that Napolitano isn't just saying that to get people to risk their lives taking vacations to Cozumel?!?!?!?!
:lol:

[CozumelAntonio]

As member of this forum I hereby propose this thread be locked so it can disappear into oblivion, as the H1N1 hype does.

Does anyone second and third this motion??

[1KWIK_69]

Sweetie, you're the Queen of cherry picking things that help your business.;)

:popcorn:

P.S. Maybe you should try taking up scuba diving? It might make you a little less uptight?
:lol:

[Christi]

As member of this forum I hereby propose this thread be locked so it can disappear into oblivion, as the H1N1 hype does.

Does anyone second and third this motion??

I 2nd, 3rd and 4th it :)

[driftin' by]

P.S. Maybe you should try taking up scuba diving? It might make you a little less uptight?
I noticed that also... both naysayers indicating they're not certified.


Does anyone second and third this motion??

I'll fifth that.

[judydivescoz]

As member of this forum I hereby propose this thread be locked so it can disappear into oblivion, as the H1N1 hype does.

Does anyone second and third this motion??

Sounds like a great idea....

[pilot fish]

I'll 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10th that.

Let the swine keep it to themselves. Bunch of pigs!:rofl3:

[1KWIK_69]

I'll 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10th that.

Let the swine keep it to themselves. Bunch of pigs!:rofl3:


For once we're all in agreement! And they said that could only happen when Pigs Fly!

Oh yeah, Swine Flu! :D

[driftin' by]

I'll 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10th that.

Let the swine keep it to themselves. Bunch of pigs!:rofl3:

:rofl3::rofl3: Nice... and what not a better way to end it.

[1KWIK_69]

Has anyone heard from Gordon since he headed South, or did the Flu get him?

[pittyyofool]

breath out of a tank and wear a FFM If you walk out side. you never know what you are going to get. especially in Mexico...

[teknitroxdiver]

Yeah we really don't need a zillion swine flu threads going on here. Let's flush this one.

[pilot fish]

When all is said and done, WE ALL WANTED THE SAME THING - a peaceful, safe Coz so we could dive there and have fun. Some pigs had other intentions. Hey, that's why they are called pigs.:D We just interpreted the information and warnings differently.;)

To Coz:lotsalove::lotsalove:




For once we're all in agreement! And they said that could only happen when Pigs Fly!

Oh yeah, Swine Flu! :D

[DandyDon]

Locking the thread would be kinda pointless as we're certainly not finished with the discussion. It's also showed up on other threads, some of which were moved here after Reporting to Mods as there is little point of additional threads, but if you convinced a Mod to close this one - then you'd have so many others. It damned sure ain't over. Sorry it was so inconvenient to your businesses and wish you well on obtaining some of the $1.3 billion stimulus package the Mexican government is announcing, but there were some more important considerations in play. :shakehead: We're not even sure it's over in the Yuc-Pen.

I join everyone in hoping that the actions of the last week have extinguished the flames for now. From: Mexico tries to restart economy after flu shutdown (http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gzz357patY4-QaJFvo9O95zMM_EQD980A3Q80) - emphasis mine...

Carstens said the outbreak has cost Mexico's economy at least $2.2 billion, and announced a $1.3 billion stimulus package, mostly for small businesses and tourism, the sectors hardest hit by the epidemic. The government will temporarily cut health insurance payments for small businesses and reduce taxes for airlines and cruise ships.
Universities and high schools were being scrubbed down before students return Thursday, and younger schoolchildren are to report back to school May 11 creating potential pools of contagion that experts worry could make the virus come back.
The schools will reopen even as experts asked restaurants to keep their customers nearly two meters (yards) apart, and Mexico's soccer federation announced that attendance will not be allowed at this weekend's season-ending games.
Calderon called it a return to "normalcy." But flu experts warned that Mexico, like the rest of the world, needs to remain on guard, and said severe cases could surface in the U.S. as well with the virus spreading in a growing number of states.
"We are by no means out of the woods," said Dr. Richard Besser, acting director of the CDC.
The World Health Organization was shipping 2.4 million treatments of antiflu drugs to the 72 countries "most in need." The countries include Mexico, hardest hit by the outbreak. Others include those countries unable to afford stockpiles of the drugs.
As of Tuesday, Mexico had 840 confirmed cases, and U.S. cases grew to at least 380 in 36 states.
Few details have been released about the most recent swine flu death in the U.S., but officials said the victim was a woman with chronic health problems who lived on the U.S.-Mexico border. The country's first death occurred last week when a boy from Mexico died at a Houston hospital.
Globally, the virus has infected more than 1,490 in 21 countries, according to the World Health Organization and other health bodies. South Korea, Italy and Germany all reported new cases Tuesday. Experts said the known cases were almost certainly only a fraction of the real total.
World health officials have said a pandemic could be declared in the days to come a reflection of the swine flu's geographic spread, not its severity. Health Secretary Jose Cordova said those infected appeared to pass the virus on to an average of 1.4 other people, near the normal flu rate of around 1.3.
WHO was studying whether to raise the pandemic alert to 6, its highest level, which would mean a global outbreak had begun. WHO uses the term pandemic to refer only to geographic spread and not to the severity of an illness. The two most recent pandemics in 1957 and 1968 were relatively mild.
Margaret Chan, WHO director general, said the level will be raised if swine flu is found in another region outside North America, showing very clear evidence of community-level transmission."
The Southern Hemisphere is particularly at risk. While Africa still hasn't reported any swine flu infections and New Zealand is the only country south of the equator with confirmed cases, winter is only weeks away. Experts worry that typical winter flus could combine with swine flu, creating a new strain that is more contagious or dangerous.
"You have this risk of an additional virus that could essentially cause two outbreaks at once," Dr. Jon Andrus said at the Pan American Health Organization's headquarters in Washington.
Still, the U.N. health agency urged governments to avoid unproven actions to contain the disease, including group quarantines of travelers from Mexico and bans on pork imports.

[Christi]

No arguments that there will be a second wave - and who knows at this point how much more contagious it will be or how much more dangerous than the current wave it will be. That remains to be seen - but at that point it is going to be everywhere and won't be confined to one area or country - so EVERYONE/EVERYWHERE will need to be aware - but not PANIC! Mass panic and pandemonium gets us NOWHERE!

The point is to stay as healthy as possible, stay home if you're sick, stay away from sick people, wash your hands, and practice good hygiene to minimize your risks of getting this new flu.

I've had some cancellations, but in the big scheme of things not all that bad. We still ran with two boats part of this week and next week will be a slow week. We pick up again in mid-May and things look good for June and July.

My main point in all of this was to keep it all in perspective (not to be extremists in either direction) and to really examine the facts, risks, etc.

[lamont]

As member of this forum I hereby propose this thread be locked so it can disappear into oblivion, as the H1N1 hype does.

Does anyone second and third this motion??

I'm voting against.

If we calm down there is still news which is worthwhile to monitor and discuss.

The US reported its 2nd death, which was a woman who had other health issues. The statistics now seem to fit pretty well with normal influenza -- with 500 confirmed cases and 700+ suspected and probably >>1,000 actual infections, including completely unreported cases, then 2 deaths is a 0.1-0.2% rate, which is 'normal'. And the two deaths have been in a toddler and in someone with a pre-existing chronic condition.

And where it bears more watching is "Some health experts said the virus could surge in the southern hemisphere when the winter begins". We still need to see if we get outbreaks in Australia, South America and Africa starting in June/July and peaking in Aug/Sep. Again, this isn't reason to panic, but that will be the first indication of if this will totally fizzle, or will produce typical influenza virulence, or will cause an unusually bad epidemic/mild pandemic flu year. Based on how it is spreading outside of the flu season in the northern hemisphere, the southern hemisphere could get hit with a bad flu year.

There's also a scientific curiosity question which remains to be answered as to if this strain of flu virus will compare against the existing H1N1 and H2N3 viruses that circulate in the human population. It could fizzle completely, could outcompete all the other and become dominant, or it could widen the genetic diversity of viruses infecting the human population and "share" with the other strains.

[DandyDon]

No argument with any one this at all...

No arguments that there will be a second wave - and who knows at this point how much more contagious it will be or how much more dangerous than the current wave it will be. That remains to be seen - but at that point it is going to be everywhere and won't be confined to one area or country - so EVERYONE/EVERYWHERE will need to be aware - but not PANIC! Mass panic and pandemonium gets us NOWHERE!

The point is to stay as healthy as possible, stay home if you're sick, stay away from sick people, wash your hands, and practice good hygiene to minimize your risks of getting this new flu.

I've had some cancellations, but in the big scheme of things not all that bad. We still ran with two boats part of this week and next week will be a slow week. We pick up again in mid-May and things look good for June and July.

My main point in all of this was to keep it all in perspective (not to be extremists in either direction) and to really examine the facts, risks, etc.

And I hope that the actions that were able to slow this A(H1N1) continue to slow it, that we keep our guard up enough to maintain the lull. I know that someone said "there will never be flu on Cozumel" and that would be nice if true, but we can't count on that either. We can keep up guard and hope will dealing with infection risks reasonably tho.

From: Experts: Mild swine flu could quickly turn deadly (http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jxi2DOdRNhBwHdNjFbdLPIH8NZbgD9809LMO0)

WASHINGTON (AP) 3 hours ago A flu virus is a powerhouse of evolution, mutating at the maximum speed nature allows. A mild virus can morph into a killer and vice versa.
One change already made this year's swine flu more of a problem, helping it spread more easily among people. The big question is: What mutations are next? That's why scientists are watching it so closely.
"There are no rules to flu viruses; they are just so mutable," said Dr. Paul Glezen, a flu epidemiologist at the Baylor College of Medicine in Houston. "The fact that it changes all the time really confounds our efforts to control it."
Think of flu's evolution like a family tree: In the current flu's distant ancestry are last century's three pandemics. But its more immediate relatives are swine flu strains that were no big deal to humans.
The good news right now is that this flu has lost some of the most dangerous genetic traits of past pandemics. The bad news is that it's gained something its parents didn't have: the ability to spread from human to human.

[Christi]

I know that someone said "there will never be flu on Cozumel" and that would be nice if true, but we can't count on that either. We can keep up guard and hope will dealing with infection risks reasonably tho.


I didn't see where anyone said there would never be flu here...of course I could have missed it in 50+ pages :) I don't think anyone ever believed that we were totally immune from it...but the cases here on the island are still 0 as of today anyway...not saying it won't ever reach us - just that the current risk and foreseeable risks of contracting it here at this time are very, very low.

[Prop Joe]

FYI... Might want to check with your airline. Looks like some carriers are cutting back flights. For all of you lucky enough to get off work and go to Cozumel:
Major North American carriers cut flights to Mexico (http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2009/05/04/325998/major-north-american-carriers-cut-flights-to-mexico.html)

I wish I could get some extra time off for a summer trip.
I'm working on the boss to get his 16 year old son to get certified, then I could get the time off, if I help show them around the island...
I can do that!!!:D

[CozumelAntonio]

:mooner:

[DandyDon]

I didn't see where anyone said there would never be flu here...of course I could have missed it in 50+ pages :)
Yep. I asked if he was going to put that on a T-shirt too...?

:mooner:


FYI... Might want to check with your airline. Looks like some carriers are cutting back flights. For all of you lucky enough to get off work and go to Cozumel:
Major North American carriers cut flights to Mexico (http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2009/05/04/325998/major-north-american-carriers-cut-flights-to-mexico.html)

I wish I could get some extra time off for a summer trip.
I'm working on the boss to get his 16 year old son to get certified, then I could get the time off, if I help show them around the island...
I can do that!!!:D
Yep they cut back last week, now overloaded so we're hoping to see more flights reinstated now. There is a thread about this on this forum.

Hope you get to go. Looking forward to my next trip...!

[underachiever]

Was not sure if this had been mentioned but according to the CDC antiviral drugs may be effective to prevent the H1N1. Below is from the CDC website. Just as info.

Benefits of Antiviral Drugs
Treatment: If you get sick, antiviral drugs can make your illness milder and make you feel better faster. They may also prevent serious influenza complications. Influenza antiviral drugs work best when started soon after illness onset (within two 2 days), but treatment with antiviral drugs should still be considered after 48 hours of symptom onset, particularly for hospitalized patients or people at high risk for influenza-related complications.

Prevention: Influenza antiviral drugs also can be used to prevent influenza when they are given to a person who is not ill, but who has been or may be near a person with swine influenza. When used to prevent the flu, antiviral drugs are about 70% to 90% effective. When used for prevention, the number of days that they should be used will vary depending on a personÃÔ particular situation.



CDC Recommendation
CDC recommends the use of oseltamivir or zanamivir for the treatment and/or prevention of infection with swine influenza viruses.


Oseltamivir (brand name Tamiflu Ž®) is approved to both treat and prevent influenza A and B virus infection in people one year of age and older.
Zanamivir (brand name Relenza Ž®) is approved to treat influenza A and B virus infection in people 7 years and older and to prevent influenza A and B virus infection in people 5 years and older.
Recommendations for using antiviral drugs for treatment or prevention of swine influenza will change as we learn more about this new virus.

Clinicians should consider treating any person with confirmed or suspected swine influenza with an antiviral drug. Visit: Interim Guidance on Antiviral Recommendations

[CozumelAntonio]

I know that someone said "there will never be flu on Cozumel" and that would be nice if true...

Don, if you're going to quote people, you should at least try to quote people properly, and not change their words around...


I believe time will show that there were never any cases of the swine flu in Cozumel, yet the damages to the local economy are as bad as if there were.

I really don't get why you insist on hyping this....

[1KWIK_69]

Thanks for quoting yourself Antonio. I was wondering where I missed anyone making a blanket statement that there are and never will be any cases of the flu in Cozumel. I saw a laim attempt at making fun of someone for saying that but I didn't know who they were supposedly quoting. Mystery solved.

Let's see. "there were never any cases of the swine flu in Cozumel,".

As far as I have heard, this statement was absolutely true. At that time there "Were" no cases of "Swine Flu" in Cozumel. As far as we know, there still are none.

I love how people claiming to want everyone to know the facts will intentionally twist them around to support their argument.

P.S. Don, please don't think this was directed towards you because it wasn't. It's actually directed towards the militant NO TRAVEL person we've all heard countless repetetive quotes from. He knows who he is. I'm sure yours was just a 50 page old foggy recolection that someone said something along the lines of there being no flu there and then remembering this angry militant person's misquote of that original statement.

[DandyDon]

A friend's son is part of the Plainview High School marching band (http://www.powerhouseoftheplains.org/) which has plans for a bus trip to Houston or Galveston and one of those lame 5 night cruises that stops in Cozumel only I think. He's the only kid I know in the group, but I knew they had really looked forward to the big trip - now canceled by the cruise line. I asked how much the trip was costing? "$850 each."

I suggested that they could blow off the cruise and just fly to Coz, do 5 nights at a nice enough hotel, for less than that, surely have enough money left over for food & drinks, and see the island so much better than with a port call. I guess it'd be easier to herd the kids on a boat than on an island, but thot the idea had merit. I asked how many in the band...?

"I'm not sure, a few hundered."

"Oh?! :shocked2: Uh, you're going to need a few planes."
But then I guess most of the kids acquired Passport Cards good for land and sea crossings only and not full Passports needed for air travel. Dang, for that money they could have chartered a few B-737s, flown in, stayed at Casa del Mar with drinks & food for 5 nights, and maybe seen the island for real. Jeeze, when I graduated, we had a bus trip to visit the Alamo and a few nights at a dude ranch.

[lamont]

wikipedia is now referencing this page, in quoting that q.roo has 11 lab confirmed cases:

Influenza A H1N1 - Organización Panamericana de la Salud (http://ais.paho.org/flu/sm/en/atlas.html)

mexico is up to 1204 confirmed cases, and 44 confirmed deaths:

Secretara de Salud (http://portal.salud.gob.mx/contenidos/noticias/influenza/estadisticas.html)

( and the first url seems to lag since they're only caught up to 949 confirmed cases in mexico )

[Bandmom]

A friend's son is part of the Plainview High School marching band (http://www.powerhouseoftheplains.org/) which has plans for a bus trip to Houston or Galveston and one of those lame 5 night cruises that stops in Cozumel only I think. He's the only kid I know in the group, but I knew they had really looked forward to the big trip - now canceled by the cruise line. I asked how much the trip was costing? "$850 each."

Isn't it terrible what they charge for those school trips! My son's band is going to take a bus (just one bus) from Kentucky to Florida and spend 4 days at Disney in a couple of weeks....cost per kid..$600!! And that is with the Boosters covering some of the cost :shakehead: I know it takes some of the work off of us Booster parents but it seems like the companies that put together these school trips are making a killing....Hey Don.....sounds like a possible business idea :D All the Coz lovers on the board could take turns chaperoning...I'm game :crafty:

[1KWIK_69]

wikipedia is now referencing this page, in quoting that q.roo has 11 lab confirmed cases:

Influenza A H1N1 - Organización Panamericana de la Salud (http://ais.paho.org/flu/sm/en/atlas.html)

mexico is up to 1204 confirmed cases, and 44 confirmed deaths:

Secretara de Salud (http://portal.salud.gob.mx/contenidos/noticias/influenza/estadisticas.html)

( and the first url seems to lag since they're only caught up to 949 confirmed cases in mexico )


So roughly 1 out of every 100,000 people in Mexico have caught the flu, and 1 in every 3,000,000 have died from it. I'll take 1 in three million odds on my life any day.
In fact I'm pretty sure I do a lot of things that have better odds of killing me than that........

Let's see, I've been known to chase sharks around just to get a really good picture, I ride a Yamaha R1 sport bike in traffic, and I jump out of airplanes.

Yep, Mexico seems pretty damn safe to me! :D

[dive pro]

The president and health comitee have lowered the alert,
highschool, colleges, universities went back to school today, there are obviously changes, the schools have sanitized and will keep screening, on monday all other kids go back to schools, cinemas, soccergames, cultural events, restaurants that were restricted in mex. City to sell food to go, and here in cancun they were restricted to a certain % of their capacity, all them are open, the arqueological zones are open as well as the theme parks, whaleshark season is around the corner...all not is back to normal there are precautions being taken, airports screen temperature and do have medical staff etc.....
On the other hand i believe but not sure it is 7 hotels now that have closed down their doors in cancun, some of them are part of the same company that owns 2 or 3 hotels they concentrate all people in one or two hotels. Occupancy is very low. We in our case went out yesterday with 2 people and are going out tomorrow again with 4 people.....it is slow, may has always been a low month, my sister went to planet hollywood they had a 50% off to all...both 3 levels of gvnmt are working on help to all touristic industry although there are many people with a leave of abscence no pay and we will call you when we need you kind of stuff that companies have to do......anyway i hope this info helps, but get informed always at your federal and local offices, maybe embassy, get official info, get medical info on this we always have a couple of doctors we trust etc so you can take a wise desition and either visit or postpone your trip if you have a chance.
The info provided before is from the communications office of the office of the Presidency. On the other hand i want to emphasize the fact that there are measurements at airports and hotels to monitor and also there is a state and municipal emercy situation, like some of us, some of you posters here lived during wilma

hope this info helps

best regards to all and hope everyone is fine.......let's go diving

[DandyDon]

Isn't it terrible what they charge for those school trips! My son's band is going to take a bus (just one bus) from Kentucky to Florida and spend 4 days at Disney in a couple of weeks....cost per kid..$600!! And that is with the Boosters covering some of the cost :shakehead: I know it takes some of the work off of us Booster parents but it seems like the companies that put together these school trips are making a killing....Hey Don.....sounds like a possible business idea :D All the Coz lovers on the board could take turns chaperoning...I'm game :crafty:
Oh gawd, I have no patience with kids being kids. I could chaperon a rifle drill team maybe: march them to chow, march them to the tour bus, march them around the ruins - but I'd still bring a buggy whip.

$850 did sound outrageous for a bus to Houston and the cruise. I thot they were cheap?

So roughly 1 out of every 100,000 people in Mexico have caught the flu, and 1 in every 3,000,000 have died from it. I'll take 1 in three million odds on my life any day.
In fact I'm pretty sure I do a lot of things that have better odds of killing me than that........

Let's see, I've been known to chase sharks around just to get a really good picture, I ride a Yamaha R1 sport bike in traffic, and I jump out of airplanes.

Yep, Mexico seems pretty damn safe to me! :D
It is indeed that the virus was controlled so well and seemingly not as dangerous as first seemed. There was a real threat; TG it failed.

[lamont]

Oh gawd, I have no patience with kids being kids. I could chaperon a rifle drill team maybe: march them to chow, march them to the tour bus, march them around the ruins - but I'd still bring a buggy whip.

$850 did sound outrageous for a bus to Houston and the cruise. I thot they were cheap?

It is indeed that the virus was controlled so well and seemingly not as dangerous as first seemed. There was a real threat; TG it failed.

It still hasn't "failed" and it still is a real threat.

Given that it is probably infected 1 in 10,000 in mexico (assuming at least 10 unreported cases for each lab confirmed case), outside of the normal flu season, it should be much more successful in the southern hemisphere during their normal flu season. And that is probably when it will be able to mutate to become more virulent just through naturally having more numbers to infect and more random numbers to roll in order to come up with successful variants.

And its still potentially deadly to the old and very young.

[DandyDon]

Ok I meant seemingly failed for now. You're right. It's certainly not vanished and the second wave in the fall is typically the worst. Brazil and Argentina are indeed reporting cases.

Not gone in the US either. from: Swine flu cases double in the US (http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5h1PqigUV8fkOkynxWRYjo4sSyZOw)

33 minutes ago
WASHINGTON (AFP) The United States announced Friday that the number of swine flu cases within its borders had doubled almost overnight, while the death toll in Mexico inched up.
American health authorities said the number of confirmed cases was now 1,639 in 43 states. The figure had been put at 896 only on Thursday.
Spokesman of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dave Daigle, said the jump "does not reflect a speed up of the epidemic" as more and more places were now able to test for the virus.
In Mexico, the epicenter of the worldwide epidemic, Health Minister Jose Angel Cordova said the (A)H1N1 flu virus was on the wane. The last death on May 4 had not been from a new infection, he said.

UK still reporting of course, Asia, Oceania.

[1KWIK_69]

Well how about instead of dwelling on it and continuing the hyped up fear and panack, why don't we put it on the back burner, go on about our lives as normal and just get used to practicing washing our hands and covering our mouths when we cough, which everyone should do all the time anyway, whether or not there's a nasty bug going around.

If this thing makes major headlines in the southern hemisphere over the next few months, or we see the beginning of a second wave in the fall, then we should think about taking further precautions. Until either of those things happen, I'm not going to worry about it. I have too many real issues to deal with to be worrying about something that at least for now doesn't affect me.

[Christi]

Well, I think we should all be able to agree now that this is not a "problem" that is confined to Mexico.

With that said, no reason to discriminate travel destinations - especially those that still have no confirmed cases. So even if Lamont's theory of 10 unreported for every 1 reported is true....Cozumel is in pretty good shape since we have 0 reported cases here!

[bluewaterdiva]

According to the CDC website the flu last season (not the swine variety) hospitalized over 200,000, 36,000 died and another 300,000 were sickened in the US. Isn't it strange how we didnt hear any media hype over those statistics? I think it is great to be informed and aware. I don't worry about being involved in a car wreck every time I drive. Id rather be diving though!

[DandyDon]

According to the CDC website the flu last season (not the swine variety) hospitalized over 200,000, 36,000 died and another 300,000 were sickened in the US. Isn't it strange how we didnt hear any media hype over those statistics? I think it is great to be informed and aware. I don't worry about being involved in a car wreck every time I drive. Id rather be diving though!
Haha, hype you think? I suppose those numbers didn't make news for a number of reasons...

The seasonal outbreaks were expected and vaccines were offered;

The losses were mostly in the more vulnerable, not healthy young adults like this killer;

And this one really could have been a hell of a lot worse if like other new, late spring outbreaks. We're very fortunate that it wasn't, for various reasons.
The biggest problem with this one was lack of information and action, and fortunately that seems to have changed. I'm glad to read that the health pros are still diligently watching this and making whatever preparations seem prudent as it's not gone and could get a lot worse, but hoping for the best.

Yes Christi, I think we can "agree now that this is not a "problem" that is confined to Mexico. " Looks like we just need the airlines to restore flights, and I am sure the US carriers will with increased demand. There was significant reason for caution for a while there I think and ignoring the mushrooming risk would have been foolish; glad that it subsided.

Is Canada still boycotting?

You know, it would probly be fine with most to move this thread from this forum to the Non-Diving forum - ya think...???

[1KWIK_69]

I'd still like to hear the numbers regarding the deaths in Mexico compared to poverty. If mostly the poor died, I'd take a guess that it's because they lacked the money to see a doctor and probably don't get regular flu vaccinations. There are some that are reporting that since the H1N1 from 1977 is included in the yearly vaccine, it may afford some protection against this one. That would explain why the only American death not counting the sick Mexican child that died on this side of the border was a pregnant woman with undisclosed other cronic health issues. This flu so far hasn't caused any major problems to any young otherwise healthy American adults other than normal flu symptoms. That's not to say it can't get more lethal if it changes slightly before next fall.

[lamont]

I'd still like to hear the numbers regarding the deaths in Mexico compared to poverty. If mostly the poor died, I'd take a guess that it's because they lacked the money to see a doctor and probably don't get regular flu vaccinations. There are some that are reporting that since the H1N1 from 1977 is included in the yearly vaccine, it may afford some protection against this one. That would explain why the only American death not counting the sick Mexican child that died on this side of the border was a pregnant woman with undisclosed other cronic health issues. This flu so far hasn't caused any major problems to any young otherwise healthy American adults other than normal flu symptoms. That's not to say it can't get more lethal if it changes slightly before next fall.

Flu vaccinations and catching the flu have the same effect, either way you wind up with antibodies to the virus. Unless Mexicans don't normally ever get stick from the flu they should have antibodies similar to your average vaccinated Mexican.

(although if that's the difference, I'm really screwed because I usually don't get a flu shot).

There was suspicion that higher death rates had to do with not seeking prompt medical treatment which may have some correlation to poverty or culture.

We also don't have enough information to know how deadly this is compared to normal influenza in the vulnerable population. It seems like about every 10 posts someone else quotes the statistics yet again that 36,000 people die every year from influenza -- which means that if this bug is completely ignorable in the healthy adult population it can still kill 36,000 people in the US just by being 2x more lethal in the vulnerable population.

In fact the very reason *why* the authorities are concerned about new strains of influenza is that it is normally very virulent and deadly, and it doesn't take much of an uptick to add up to a lot of excess deaths compared to the background rate.

[1KWIK_69]

Flu vaccinations and catching the flu have the same effect, either way you wind up with antibodies to the virus. Unless Mexicans don't normally ever get stick from the flu they should have antibodies similar to your average vaccinated Mexican.

That's not quite accurate. When you catch the flu, whatever strain you have, you build up antibodies for that and only that strain. The vaccinations they make every year are a coctail of different strains of the flu combined which cause you to make antibodies for all of them. Ever since the last swine flu scare in 1977 they've added that version of the H1N1 to the coctail. Catching the regular human flu will give you no antibodies or resistance what's so ever to the so called swine flu. The H1N1 strain in the already used vaccine may only give partial protection against this new (A)H1N1 however. I guess partial is better than none.

[MMM]

I've been on a few national conference calls in the past couple of days with medical health experts and health sector leaders/managers. I'm summarizing this and stating in layman's language, But generally speaking we're starting to stand down on this particular outbreak in terms of death worries and 24/7 alert (yay!). For now. We will continue enhanced tracking and monitoring (without the high profile media profile/opportunities, given the recent documented low risk of death outside Mexico). Based on past experience, we expect a more virulent outbreak in the fall-winter. The trick around messaging will be to prevent panic and complacency. Stay tuned. This was a dry run on preparedness. It revealed lots of work to be done.

For those wondering what's the big deal? It is a new - not before seen virus - that seemed to transmit rapidly. And for some as yet unknown (and I stress unknown, despite all the theories floating around on the web) reason, death in Mexico among otherwise young healthy individuals. Still no conclusion among experts as to why. Get your flu shot this year!

[DandyDon]

Thanks MMM! :thumb:


There was suspicion that higher death rates had to do with not seeking prompt medical treatment which may have some correlation to poverty or culture.
I don't know the culture well, and I am sure there are many differences in the different areas and aspects of the culture and sub or alternate cultures.

The Yucatan Peninsula including 3 states of Yucatan, Campeche, and Quintana Roo is somewhat different from the mainland in general I've read. I've been reading more on the history lately; very interesting. The US was invited to take control during the 1840s; Santa Anna was pretty mean to them too - but that didn't go thru and probly wouldn't have worked so well during our civil war.

Today, with faster travel, interstate TV and other media, mainlanders immigrating over the decades to develop the tourist areas started 40 years ago by the Banco de Mexico, I'm sure there are more similarities that even bleed over into the rural Mayan culture somewhat. I am rambling a bit, but wanted to reference differences and similarities both of the mainland areas where this infection hit hard as compared to the Yuc-Pen which has been essentially spared. http://www.clicksmilies.com/s1106/aktion/action-smiley-033.gif

In addition to the possibilities or the poor not seeking medical attention rapidly;

There is also the Farmicia influence, with over the counter antibiotics and many other meds that we in the US see as prescription only - leading to more self medicating, which would have failed horribly in this outbreak I think. Ampicillin is cheap and easy to acquire there, I got some from my Cancun dentist in March but also a couple of more packs to bring home since it is so much cheaper than here - not that I'm any better at self medicating, but I like to keep it handy.

Then there is the Farmicist playing doctor in many cases, which is more like a sales consultant it seems. That's legal and common in all of Mexico I think, and probly works okay in many cases - but may have lead people to avoid real doctors and hospitals when they really should have been going in, as well as the risk of developing ampicillin resistant bacteria strains.

And there are the villages without doctors. Seen many of them on the drive to Holbox and I'm sure they're common across the Yuc-Pen and much of Mexico.
So I can see many challenges there. It's good that we have educated professionals who understand all this more and can offer suggestions based on better information, but it helps my acceptance to understand these facets somewhat.

(although if that's the difference, I'm really screwed because I usually don't get a flu shot).
Yeah, that sucks. I used to post reminder threads in the fall but quit. Too many people posting why they didn't - many of the posts involving false science and just absurd statements. It's a personal call, but generally a good idea. Glad I usually do.

We also don't have enough information to know how deadly this is compared to normal influenza in the vulnerable population. It seems like about every 10 posts someone else quotes the statistics yet again that 36,000 people die every year from influenza -- which means that if this bug is completely ignorable in the healthy adult population it can still kill 36,000 people in the US just by being 2x more lethal in the vulnerable population.
I'm not clear on what you just said there, but yeah - those "so what" posts are funny. This infection has given us a break, but it's still different; no reason to think that we'll only have 36,000 losses this coming season.


That's not quite accurate. When you catch the flu, whatever strain you have, you build up antibodies for that and only that strain. The vaccinations they make every year are a coctail of different strains of the flu combined which cause you to make antibodies for all of them. Ever since the last swine flu scare in 1977 they've added that version of the H1N1 to the coctail. Catching the regular human flu will give you no antibodies or resistance what's so ever to the so called swine flu. The H1N1 strain in the already used vaccine may only give partial protection against this new (A)H1N1 however. I guess partial is better than none.
Yeah, I think there are usually 3 strains included in the vaccine, including 1 H1C1 that might have helped developed some resistances in us old coots who have been getting the shots all those decades.

It's interesting to note there have been no reported cases on the Rio Grande other than in the lower Valley and in El Paso north along the river into New Mexico? It seems to have made air travel entries into many spots across the US, but for ground travel - only in a few spots, then worked up the RG into NM. Or are cases not being well reported on the RG? It's a long border to watch, but surely has been more closely. Map below, or larger version available from thumbnail here...


59124

Then got to wonder about the illegal entries too...?


http://i42.tinypic.com/fod5s5.jpg

[CozumelAntonio]

For those wondering what's the big deal? It is a new - not before seen virus -

I keep wondering why people keep repeating this, H1N1 Influenza A, is NOT new. It has been around for a while, in fact as recently as 5 months ago, results were being published about it's resistance to Tamiflu:

H1N1 Tamiflu Resistance in the United States Increases to 96% (http://www.recombinomics.com/News/12050804/H274Y_US_96.html)

P.S.

http://photos-a.ak.fbcdn.net/photos-ak-snc1/v3819/219/88/1516860955/n1516860955_307408_3766535.jpg

[CozumelAntonio]

:shakehead: We're not even sure it's over in the Yuc-Pen





http://i42.tinypic.com/fod5s5.jpg



errr that there map you posted seems pretty sure....

so who's right Don, you? or the map....???

[DandyDon]

I keep wondering why people keep repeating this, H1N1 Influenza A, is NOT new. It has been around for a while, in fact as recently as 5 months ago, results were being published about it's resistance to Tamiflu:
I posted that bear & pig pic earlier, but had whited out the obscenity. :eyebrow: Did you catch the Youtube, I think I posted? Funny...!

Yeah, H1N1 has been around for who knows how long. The 1918 mass killer was an H1N1, there has been a strain of H1N1 included in the flu vaccine since after the 1976 fiasco which sadly involved a botched vaccine that killed and disabled some - and that epidemic failed. It was a dark time in the US, at the end of the Viet Nam era, having had a Vice President and President both resign as crooks, leaving accidental Ford in charge: 1976: The swine flu scare (http://www.capitalcentury.com/1976.html)

This Novel H1C1 is a new one. If it had been the same old bug, it wouldn't have killed so many mainland Mexicans. I am impressed that your government controlled it so well, prevented similar outbreaks on your Peninsula and the islands. I think my fumbling government may have helped yours out some, or so I've read. :medal: Bully for both of them.

I was just looking for this thread anyway; glad you bumped it already. http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v483/DandyDon/Smilies/58435688.gif

I need to post an apology to Christy, Antonio, and maybe others. Last night I think it was I posted a crack about Christy's remarks for example. I went to dinner, felt bad, came back to edit it - but some may have seen it. Not many I don't think as I doubt many are still following this, but maybe some?

Anyway, I am sure that neither Christy nor Antonio would suggest forfeiting personal safety for business reasons. On the contrary, I am sure you both take safety very seriously and responsibly - out of the water as well as in. Our views on prudent decisions have differed at times, but I know that neither of you ever suggested increasing risks. And I want to offer my apologies for being so cranky, obnoxious, etc - as I am at times. :blush:

thank you

[teknitroxdiver]

errr that there map you posted seems pretty sure....

so who's right Don, you? or the map....???

Wait what? That map shows none in the peninsula.

[lamont]

That's not quite accurate. When you catch the flu, whatever strain you have, you build up antibodies for that and only that strain. The vaccinations they make every year are a coctail of different strains of the flu combined which cause you to make antibodies for all of them. Ever since the last swine flu scare in 1977 they've added that version of the H1N1 to the coctail. Catching the regular human flu will give you no antibodies or resistance what's so ever to the so called swine flu. The H1N1 strain in the already used vaccine may only give partial protection against this new (A)H1N1 however. I guess partial is better than none.

The 2008/2008 Northern Hemisphere virus components were:

A/Brisbane/59/2007 (H1N1)-like
A/Brisbane/10/2007 (H3N2)-like
B/Florida/4/2006-like

It did not contain A/USSR/90/1977.

[lamont]

I keep wondering why people keep repeating this, H1N1 Influenza A, is NOT new. It has been around for a while, in fact as recently as 5 months ago, results were being published about it's resistance to Tamiflu:

H1N1 just refers to the subtype of those envelope proteins. The specific genotype varies greatly and affects immune response and immunity (otherwise everyone would have caught H1N1 back in 1977 acquired immunity and H1N1 influenza would have died out).

The current "Swine Flu" is a reassortment of swine, avian and human influenza genes where the specific genotype of the HA, NA, NP, M and NS1 genes are from swine, the PB2 and PA genes are from avian influenza, and the PB1 gene is the only one from human influenza and comes from a human H3N2 strain. The only gene there where humans have been exposed to that specific genotype is in the PB1 gene, which makes it new and makes the circulating pool of human influenza virus genes that much larger.

[DandyDon]

Yeah, I thot there were 3 strains included in each vaccine. Didn't know the details. Thanks.

errr that there map you posted seems pretty sure....

so who's right Don, you? or the map....???
If you want to say it's over in the Yuc-Pen, fine.

Wait what? That map shows none in the peninsula.
I dunno? We know of two cases confirmed and admitted. Can't say why they're not indicated on the map?

We don't know how real cases many were not confirmed, not reported, not admitted? Cancun Wall Of Silence (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/swine-flu/5245411/Swine-flu-wall-of-silence-in-Mexicos-Cancun-holiday-resort.html) Many of the US cases were people who had recently been to Cancun, and a new one in Ohio was reported (http://www.whiotv.com/health/19410581/detail.html) the other day, recently visiting Cancun. Amazing how many caught in on trips to Cancun before it was there, huh? If new cases were found, treated, and resolved - would the officials report them?

I imagine anyone in any tourist destination world wide who develops a cough is barred from work even if it's from hay fever or other allergies.

Anyway, hope the news and the realities both continue to be great.

[1KWIK_69]

H1N1 just refers to the subtype of those envelope proteins. The specific genotype varies greatly and affects immune response and immunity (otherwise everyone would have caught H1N1 back in 1977 acquired immunity and H1N1 influenza would have died out).

The current "Swine Flu" is a reassortment of swine, avian and human influenza genes where the specific genotype of the HA, NA, NP, M and NS1 genes are from swine, the PB2 and PA genes are from avian influenza, and the PB1 gene is the only one from human influenza and comes from a human H3N2 strain. The only gene there where humans have been exposed to that specific genotype is in the PB1 gene, which makes it new and makes the circulating pool of human influenza virus genes that much larger.

Did you just write all of that yourself? If so I'm impressed! Or are parts copied from other sources?

Not starting anything but just wondering. Do you really not dive as your sig says?

[John_B]

Did you just write all of that yourself? If so I'm impressed! Or are parts copied from other sources?

Not starting anything but just wondering. Do you really not dive as your sig says?
LOL! Lamont likes to lie low, ya know, incognito-style. ;) :blinking: :rofl3:

[MMM]

Is Canada still boycotting?



I just checked the Air Canada website. Their travel advisory says it's only until the end of May. However, I'm booked to arrive in Cozumel June 5 and there is a notice on my ticket that Air Canada is making some changes. And there are question marks where my plane type should appear. Hopefully it's something as minor as a change in the type of aircraft.

[geokr]

Hopefully it's something as minor as a change in the type of aircraft.

With all the cancellations and postponements the number of people going on any day is hard to predict so I think they're putting the right aircraft on when they know the loads both going and coming. I went down May 2nd on a 737 with only 9 passengers, came back on a 757 3/4 full. The United next to us at the gate in Coz came in with 2 passengers. I called Continental when I boarded to go after seeing so few passengers worried (sort of) that my flight back was going to be cancelled. They said they were sending them down empty and bringing them back full. I wouldn't worry about the aircraft type - it'll get straightened out eventually.

[Hamradiopaul]

The swine flu does not exist in Cozumel - it was perfect - we ate everything and drank the local water and no problems. We had the whole island to ourselves and when we went diving with Victor Brito - we were the only boat on the reefs. It was like a private dive site - no crowds - just fish! And turtles.

Paul

[lamont]

Did you just write all of that yourself? If so I'm impressed! Or are parts copied from other sources?


I referenced wikipedia for the specific genes. I don't have those memorized off the top of my head... =)



Not starting anything but just wondering. Do you really not dive as your sig says?

No, I dive. I'll be in MX diving the caves next month.

...

Interesting bit of Swine Flu News in the past 24h is that Australia has confirmed its first case. Normal flu season is about to start there, and that is when we'll see how this flu is going to compare to normal influenza. It is going to have an easier time spreading and infecting people, and it will have a larger chance of reassortment with existing circulating human viruses. Over the next 2-4 months in the southern hemisphere, we'll get a much better idea of what the real ultimate impact of this virus is going to be, and if it will do anything unexpected.

[lamont]

I keep wondering why people keep repeating this, H1N1 Influenza A, is NOT new. It has been around for a while, in fact as recently as 5 months ago, results were being published about it's resistance to Tamiflu:


So i just pulled the protein sequences of the HA and NA envelope proteins of A/Solomon Islands/3/2006 (the 2007-2008 northern hemisphere H1N1 vaccine component), A/Brisbane/59/2007 (the 2008-2009 northern hemisphere H1N1 vaccine component), and A/California/14/2009 (somewhat non-scientifically picked out of the dozens of 'swine flu' sequences, but based on sequence length it seems 'typical'). I ran them (somewhat non-scientifically) through diff -u and counted the number of differences that resulted, which should be close to 2x the number of 'mutations' in the envelope protein (it double counts a change as one subtraction and one addition) -- regardless it produces an easy measure of the delta between two sequences.

Between the two circulating virus strains for the two years (2008 vaccine to 2009 vaccine), there was 16 changes in the HA protein and 35 changes in the NA protein. That makes for about (16/2) / 565 = 1.4% of the HA sequence changing and about (35/2) / 457 = 3.8% of the NA sequence changing. That much change year-to-year is sufficient so that people who caught the flu last season don't have a sufficient immune response to the next seasons flu to provide immunity.

Between the 2009 vaccine virus and the Swine Flu there were 221 changes in the HA protein, and 177 changes in the NA protein. That makes for about (221/2) / 565 = 20% of the HA sequence changing and about (177/2) / 462 = 19% of the NA sequence changing. That is an order of magnitude difference compared to the year-to-year changes and I'd say that its a 'new' virus and that the response of our immune system to it cannot be determined without seeing how it behaves in the human population.

Here's the search interface for influenza sequences:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/genomes/FLU/Database/select.cgi

[DandyDon]

The Novel H1N1 virus that mutated into a new infection in Mexico is surely constantly mutating as it makes its way around the world. The infections in various countries and even with countries will vary somewhat, may have a lot in common - subject to changes. Here is an article that explains virus mutations (http://www.cbc.ca/technology/story/2009/04/27/virus-mutate.html) with links to more info. The Hereford cattle we raise in the US have little in common with the original cattle of Herefordshire England, but viruses are wild, unpredictable, don't even need breeding mates, and change much faster than cattle.


With all the cancellations and postponements the number of people going on any day is hard to predict so I think they're putting the right aircraft on when they know the loads both going and coming. I went down May 2nd on a 737 with only 9 passengers, came back on a 757 3/4 full. The United next to us at the gate in Coz came in with 2 passengers. I called Continental when I boarded to go after seeing so few passengers worried (sort of) that my flight back was going to be cancelled. They said they were sending them down empty and bringing them back full. I wouldn't worry about the aircraft type - it'll get straightened out eventually.
That's gotta suck. Flying 9 passengers on $300 RT tickets with a crew of 4 plus ground crews, phone agents, etc. Yeah they come back with a 3/4 full plane but they're committed to coming back for you too. Cont irritates me occassionally, but usually I'm impressed at how well they treat people. Hope you had a good trip.

[lamont]

I just compared Brisbane/2007 vs. California/2009 ("swine flu") vs. USSR/1977 (the ancestor of Brisbane/2007 after 30 years of evolution).

HA distance USSR/1997 to Brisbane/2007: 9.6%
NA distance USSR/1997 to Brisbane/2007: 12%

HA distance USSR/1997 to California/2009: 19%
NA distance USSR/1997 to California/2009: 17%

HA distance Brisbane/2007 to California/2009: 20%
NA distance Brisbane/2007 to California/2009: 19%

So if you use the yardstick of the changes caused by 30 years of evolution between the 1977 and 2007 viruses, the "swine flu" is roughly 2x that yardstick away from both of them.

[lamont]

More useless statistics...

If we take the confirmed fatalities in the US over the confirmed infections, that results in a fatality rate of 0.11%, which should be a high estimate due to infections that were not lab confirmed. If we then divide the 48 lab confirmed fatalities in Mexico by that fatality rate, we get a number of cases of 43,200. It is possible that the fatality rate in Mexico is higher than the fatality rate here due to issues in seeking treatment / poverty / whatever, but we already have an inflated death rate due to under-reporting of cases in the US. So, taking the 43,200 cases we would have expected to see and dividing by the lab confirmed cases in Mexico, there would be 26 unreported cases for every lab confirmed sample.

This site is also reporting 17 cases in Yucatan and 11 cases in Q.Roo. still:

Influenza A H1N1 - Organización Panamericana de la Salud (http://ais.paho.org/flu/sm/en/atlas.html)

I think I read that the Mexican government is going to stop reporting statistics like this, though, so this is at least a few days out of date and may not get updated again ("problem solved, nothing to see here, move along, move along....").

[lamont]

can you tell i'm bored?

http://portal.salud.gob.mx/opencms/opencms/sites/salud/descargas/pdf/influenza/situacion_actual_de_la_epidemia_090509.pdf

there's a PDF from the mexican government on the current numbers, but in acroread on my Macbook I'm only getting '[?]' for all the numbers, so its not too helpful to me.

Here's a backup in case that URL disappears:

http://www.scriptkiddie.org/situacion_actual_de_la_epidemia_090509.pdf

[MMM]

So 11 confirmed in Q.Roo. Sask (my home prov) confirmed our first 2 last last week. Both hadjust returned fom vacationing in Cancun area. Today we added 2 more with no Mexico connection.

[lamont]

there's a PDF from the mexican government on the current numbers, but in acroread on my Macbook I'm only getting '[?]' for all the numbers, so its not too helpful to me.


Actually it was Preview that it wasn't working with. I installed Adobe Reader and it works fine.

If the cases are truly waning in Mexico, then maybe Mexico needs to close the border to keep the filthy people in the USA from bringing it back in... =)

[lamont]

Here's an interesting chart on the "family tree" of the HA gene of this influenza compared with samples of swine influenza, samples of people who caught swine influenza (no human-human transmission), and normal seasonal human influenza:

http://platform.gisaid.org/dante-cms/app_data/adam/repo/tempmedia/1241095607.IPZVCCNKUWSVSPBHSFAKEPGAFFGUHOKY/8185_H1_HA_tree_for_042609.pdf

[lamont]

I just downloaded all the human H1 protein sequences from the NCBI database and compared them all the A/California/04/2009.

Looking at differences from the A/California/04/2009, all the 2009-swine flu sequences differ from that sample by 0-5 changes. The next closest sequences are various samples from swine-to-human transmission of influenza that have occurred with 45-69 changes from the current California swine flu sequence.

The next most similar sample in the NCBI sequence database is the 1918 pandemic influenza virus with about 77 changes. Then there's mostly samples from the 1930s/1940s/1950s/1960s with 81-102 changes. Then there's a huge number of sequences in the 102 to 112 changes which is the bulk of the H1 proteins in recently circulating viruses.

That does sort of vaguely support and make plausible sounding the idea that older human H1 influenza viruses are more like this virus than recent ones, so older folks might have antibodies that give at least partial immunity. I was kind of surprised that the 1918 sequence was literally the closest match of any human H1 protein.

Couple of references I found to human infected with swine influenza previously, including one possible case of human-to-human transmission:

http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=236678
http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/NEJMoa0903812v1

[Martha]

Blah, blah, blah... why don't you give it a rest, lamont.

[sailldy67]

someone needs to get a life

[pilot fish]

:deadhorse:

[DandyDon]

Blah, blah, blah... why don't you give it a rest, lamont.

:lol:
He gave someone instructions earlier on how to Ignore his posts. I think it was easy... :D

I'm sure I'm on some Ignore lists.

[CozumelAntonio]

:yeahbaby::yeahbaby::yeahbaby::yeahbaby:

:hijack::hijack::hijack::hijack::hijack:

Please help Cozumel and sign the Petition:

Help Cozumel Tell the Truth to CDC Petition (http://www.petitiononline.com/freecoz/petition.html)

:dot::dot::dot:

:deadhorse:

:dancinglock::dancinglock::dancinglock:

[caseybird]

Lamont rocks.

[dive pro]

:yeahbaby::yeahbaby::yeahbaby::yeahbaby:

:hijack::hijack::hijack::hijack::hijack:

please help cozumel and sign the petition:

help cozumel tell the truth to cdc petition (http://www.petitiononline.com/freecoz/petition.html)

:dot::dot::dot:

:deadhorse:

:dancinglock::dancinglock::dancinglock:

gracias antonio this is doing something about it instead of all the blablabla myself including and i am not referring to anyone in particular....gracias

[DandyDon]

Interesting approach. I do kinda wonder if such should come from the Mayor of San Miguel rather than a service provider, and I wonder if "where there are none" is reaching a bit, as it's by definition significantly more than "no reported or confirmed cases" - but it might work. Your supporters might also copy & paste it to emails to their U.S.Representatives with follow-up phone calls to their offices mentioning the Subj line as I suspect the CDC would listen to them more. You're not asking the CDC to sound all clear for Mexico City tho, just Isla de Cozumel. :hmmm: I wonder if the CDC has ever changed policy upon request...?

Looking at Continental's IAH-CZM flights for this week tho, it looks like what you really need is more cheap flights from the airline. They currently have 2 flights/day on 3 days/week, 1/day on 3, and skip Tuesdays...


http://i40.tinypic.com/rc1rew.jpg

http://i41.tinypic.com/2enutlc.jpg

For the rest of the week, the assigned seats (gray seats) are pretty well taken for most flights - and the second flight on Wed-May 13 seems to be sold out, with the second flight on Sat-May 16 being the only flight wide open. Sorry, I could not capture pics with dates. I did try to keep them in sequence and you can see the date by hovering your cursor on a pic - except don't take my word for any of this if you seeking a flight! Call Cont Air...!

59192 59193 59194 59195 59196 59197 59198
The 18th flight sold out, 19th is NA, 20th both flights sold out...

59199
And looks like the fares are up from the recent $300 RT for all but a couple of dates - and these fares do not include approximately $100 in taxes & fees to be added on...

http://i39.tinypic.com/vg5qo8.jpg

[lamont]

Interesting approach. I do kinda wonder if such should come from the Mayor of San Miguel rather than a service provider, and I wonder if "where there are none" is reaching a bit, as it's by definition significantly more than "no reported or confirmed cases" - but it might work. Your supporters might also copy & paste it to emails to their U.S.Representatives with follow-up phone calls to their offices mentioning the Subj line as I suspect the CDC would listen to them more. You're not asking the CDC to sound all clear for Mexico City tho, just Isla de Cozumel. :hmmm: I wonder if the CDC has ever changed policy upon request...?


That is a horribly bad precedent. The CDC should not be making medical decisions on the basis of economic concerns or pressure from congress.

[DandyDon]

That is a horribly bad precedent. The CDC should not be making medical decisions on the basis of economic concerns or pressure from congress.
Of course they shouldn't. It does seem that Mexico has been able to keep this outbreak from reaching Coz tho, and it does seem inaccurate to paint the entire nation with a broad, red brush.

[Mawg]

:lol:
He gave someone instructions earlier on how to Ignore his posts. I think it was easy... :D

I'm sure I'm on some Ignore lists.

I tried putting him on my ignore list. It doesn't work with him because he's a moderator or something.

[driftin' by]

I tried putting him on my ignore list. It doesn't work with him because he's a moderator or something.
Sure enough....
http://www.dropfiles.net//files/362/lamont.jpg

... Oh you cruel and heartless life! ;)

[sailldy67]

I think Lamont and Pilot Fish are the same guy...lol.

[driftin' by]

Interestingly, I though if I tried it again I could sneak one past the server, similar to when a link doesn't work and you think clicking it 50 times will automagically make it work. Unfortunately, it didn't work but I did get a different message:

http://www.dropfiles.net//files/362/lamont2.jpg

:D

[firstdive2005]

Because of the cry wolf people like Lamont the world is being staged for a disaster. The people of the world will not listen to the authorities or those that think they know it all because of this assinine worry created by them. As we now know this virus was way overblown. O my an I sounding like an authority.

[CozumelAntonio]

Interestingly, I though if I tried it again I could sneak one past the server, similar to when a link doesn't work and you think clicking it 50 times will automagically make it work. Unfortunately, it didn't work but I did get a different message:

http://www.dropfiles.net//files/362/lamont2.jpg

:D

:rofl3: :rofl3: :rofl3: :rofl3: :rofl3: :rofl3: :rofl3: :rofl3: :rofl3: :rofl3: :rofl3: :rofl3:

[lamont]

Because of the cry wolf people like Lamont the world is being staged for a disaster. The people of the world will not listen to the authorities or those that think they know it all because of this assinine worry created by them. As we now know this virus was way overblown. O my an I sounding like an authority.

By the time Pilot Fish figured out that this was all going on, I was posting that I didn't see any reason to change my plans for next month to go cave diving in MX.

So, yes, I'm clearly crying wolf and spreading panic.

(The rest of this thread is hilarious though -- but if you can't see the difference between my spews on genetics and PF, you may need some help...)

[Mawg]

by the time pilot fish figured out that this was all going on, i was posting that i didn't see any reason to change my plans for next month to go cave diving in mx.

So, yes, i'm clearly crying wolf and spreading panic.

(the rest of this thread is hilarious though -- but if you can't see the difference between my spews on genetics and pf, you may need some help...)


yawn ....... Scratch ................... Fart!

[lamont]

Of course they shouldn't. It does seem that Mexico has been able to keep this outbreak from reaching Coz tho, and it does seem inaccurate to paint the entire nation with a broad, red brush.

It isn't the CDCs job, though, to man a situation room with up-to-date status and recommendations down to the level of individual zipcodes for every country in the world. And perfect accuracy is not even remotely possible. Of course they're going to use a broad brush.

At this point you could argue that they shouldn't be offering any travel advice about Mexico at all, but trying to get them to distinguish between Mexico and Cozumel is kind of pointless and guaranteed not to get anywhere with them.

[cdivernet]

What's sad is this hit all this media took on the tourism industry in Mexico. I have friends who literally lost jobs as a result of all the canceled trips to Mexico and now it turns out this wasn't that big of a deal at all. Sucks.

[Christi]

What's sad is this hit all this media took on the tourism industry in Mexico. I have friends who literally lost jobs as a result of all the canceled trips to Mexico and now it turns out this wasn't that big of a deal at all. Sucks.

If your friends lost jobs as a result, then they should go to the labor board. It was specifically mandated that businesses could not FIRE anyone during this crisis. They can give them vacation time, unpaid leave, reduced hours, but they CANNOT LOSE their jobs...this came down from the FEDERAL level!

[DandyDon]

What's sad is this hit all this media took on the tourism industry in Mexico. I have friends who literally lost jobs as a result of all the canceled trips to Mexico and now it turns out this wasn't that big of a deal at all. Sucks.
Hi DC, welcome to SB...

Don't think it was a big deal? I suppose feelings on that would vary with how many people one knew personally who died. Some families may disagree with you depending on the funerals.

It's easy to say the media is again making much ado about nothing, but then it could be the media that got the country to our south to stop ignoring this boiling pot of infection and finally take decisive actions. Pneumonia cases were up alarmingly for months prior and the virus has seemingly being simmering there since the fall, but Mexico did not take decisive actions until April and May.

So do we want a poll on how many think it's over? It might be interesting to see the results even as biased as they would be on this forum, but all the Cozumel fans in the world can't make it over by saying it is. Mexico finally did not take decisive actions that controlled it much better, and sad that so many were hurt financially, but epidemics happen - and the tourism losses could have been much worse otherwise. Q.Roo is still admitting very few cases, but look at how many US cases came from there. Who is familiar with the smoking gun idea...?

I'm still wondering why the Flu Tracker Map (http://flutracker.rhizalabs.com/) show none on the Yuc-Pen? I suspect a technical error in reflecting true numbers reported as they are certainly been a few admitted. From Pan American Health Org (http://ais.paho.org/flu/sm/en/atlas.html)...
>> Quintana Roo: 11
>> Yucatan state: 17
>> Campeche state: 1 died

From Warm weather may not halt swine flu (http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn17100-warm-weather-may-not-halt-swine-flu.html), May 16...

New data from Mexico and case numbers so far suggest that if the spread of H1N1 "swine flu" continues elsewhere as it has in the Americas, the virus could infect more than a billion people by July.

The data also suggests that the virus may not be slowed by summer temperatures in temperate countries. However, it spreads slowly enough to respond to the "social distancing" measures used in Mexico.

2009 H1N1 has been circulating, geneticists estimate, since last autumn, but it was first recognised in Mexico in April. New data released by the Mexican health ministry (http://portal.salud.gob.mx/descargas/pdf/influenza/graficas_defunciones060509.pdf) (pdf) reveals disturbing similarities with the last H1N1 pandemic, in 1918.

I had wondered by there were no cases reported along the Rio Grande (Rio Bravo del Norte) other than in the lower Rio Grand Valley and from El Paso north but not in between. It seems to the two Mexican states between haven't reported any?


http://i41.tinypic.com/21acr5w.jpg

[Christi]

Hi DC, welcome to SB...

Don't think it was a big deal? I suppose feelings on that would vary with how many people one knew personally who died. Some families may disagree with you depending on the funerals.

It's easy to say the media is again making much ado about nothing, but then it could be the media that got the country to our south to stop ignoring this boiling pot of infection and finally take decisive actions. Pneumonia cases were up alarmingly for months prior and the virus has seemingly being simmering there since the fall, but Mexico did not take decisive actions until April and May.

So do we want a poll on how many think it's over? It might be interesting to see the results even as biased as they would be on this forum, but all the Cozumel fans in the world can't make it over by saying it is. Mexico finally did not take decisive actions that controlled it much better, and sad that so many were hurt financially, but epidemics happen - and the tourism losses could have been much worse otherwise. Q.Roo is still admitting very few cases, but look at how many US cases came from there. Who is familiar with the smoking gun idea...?

I'm still wondering why the Flu Tracker Map (http://flutracker.rhizalabs.com/) show none on the Yuc-Pen? I suspect a technical error in reflecting true numbers reported as they are certainly been a few admitted. From Pan American Health Org (http://ais.paho.org/flu/sm/en/atlas.html)...
>> Quintana Roo: 11
>> Yucatan state: 17
>> Campeche state: 1 died

From Warm weather may not halt swine flu (http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn17100-warm-weather-may-not-halt-swine-flu.html), May 16...


I had wondered by there were no cases reported along the Rio Grande (Rio Bravo del Norte) other than in the lower Rio Grand Valley and from El Paso north but not in between. It seems to the two Mexican states between haven't reported any?


http://i41.tinypic.com/21acr5w.jpg


Don! Please make up your mind! You're talking out of both sides of your mouth again.

YES, there was a Swine Flu outbreak in Mexico - MEXICO CITY!

YES, there are confirmed cases in Q. ROO, but still NONE in Cozumel - call it a conspiracy if you think you need to....but this is a SMALL community and if we had a confirmed case, you can bet your butt that it would be all over the radio and in the papers here - we'd ALL know about it. I'll add that our local govt. took drastic measure to ensue that if there WAS a case here, it wasn't spread.

Even so, the risk of coming to Cozumel IS AND NEVER WAS ANY GREATER THAN TRAVEL TO ANYWHERE ELSE regardless of how strong or mild it turned out to be.

This flu virus HAS NO BOUNDARIES and broke through the borders 2 weeks ago that we know of. This is NO LONGER A MEXICO THING - it's a WORLD thing!!!!!!

So, with the above arguments - there should be no travel advisories singling out Mexico!

[DandyDon]

Don! Please make up your mind! You're talking out of both sides of your mouth again.
Is that what you call discussing new information? Okay, fine - I'm still keeping an open mind to new info, nonetheless.

YES, there was a Swine Flu outbreak in Mexico - MEXICO CITY!
I know where highest severity was. It wasn't just Mexico City (see map), but I more was addressing the national problem that required a national actions.

YES, there are confirmed cases in Q. ROO, but still NONE in Cozumel - call it a conspiracy if you think you need to....but this is a SMALL community and if we had a confirmed case, you can bet your butt that it would be all over the radio and in the papers here - we'd ALL know about it. I'll add that our local govt. took drastic measure to ensue that if there WAS a case here, it wasn't spread.
Haha, I suspect that this new, novel flu will be more likely to backtrack its way if and when it arrives from a US visitor. Even so, got to wonder how eager the locals would be to publicize it?

Even so, the risk of coming to Cozumel IS AND NEVER WAS ANY GREATER THAN TRAVEL TO ANYWHERE ELSE regardless of how strong or mild it turned out to be.
I'm not saying it is. When this first hit, I questioned that. Now I don't.

This flu virus HAS NO BOUNDARIES and broke through the borders 2 weeks ago that we know of. This is NO LONGER A MEXICO THING - it's a WORLD thing!!!!!!
Yep, well aware of that.

So, with the above arguments - there should be no travel advisories singling out Mexico!
Probably shouldn't be. The WHO doesn't advise against it. I wouldn't let it stop me if my plans were this month even if I were not in the golden immune age group. But then I've never been known for taking personal safety seriously so that doesn't prove anything. I am more likely to share prudent suggestions, but still - I see no reason to support the CDC advisory. I wonder what they know that I don't...?

Did you see my post last night that what you needed mostly were more planes with $300 RT tickets? That change some with the midnight update as more cheap tickets have been offered today, but mostly you need more planes as some of them are sold out. People are trying to get there; the airlines just need to rise to the demand - easier said than done tho with all the variables and unknowns. Glad I'm not making those decisions either.

[Christi]

Is that what you call discussing new information? Okay, fine - I'm still keeping an open mind to new info, nonetheless. I know where highest severity was. It wasn't just Mexico City (see map), but I more was addressing the national problem that required a national actions. Haha, I suspect that this new, novel flu will be more likely to backtrack its way if and when it arrives from a US visitor. Even so, got to wonder how eager the locals would be to publicize it? I'm not saying it is. When this first hit, I questioned that. Now I don't. Yep, well aware of that.
Probably shouldn't be. The WHO doesn't advise against it. I wouldn't let it stop me if my plans were this month even if I were not in the golden immune age group. But then I've never been known for taking personal safety seriously so that doesn't prove anything. I am more likely to share prudent suggestions, but still - I see no reason to support the CDC advisory. I wonder what they know that I don't...?

Did you see my post last night that what you needed mostly were more planes with $300 RT tickets? That change some with the midnight update as more cheap tickets have been offered today, but mostly you need more planes as some of them are sold out. People are trying to get there; the airlines just need to rise to the demand - easier said than done tho with all the variables and unknowns. Glad I'm not making those decisions either.

OK...I may have misunderstood your post - sorry about that! Thanks for the clarification.

I'm actually gearing up for an incredibly busy last half of May - mostly people that were already booked and didn't cancel - but a good handful of last minute reservations due to low airfares. The last two weeks may actually make up for the horrible first half of the month.

I think that chart you posted that showed no available fares are on days that they aren't flying still - so I agree with you there - no doubt! Regardless, I've still been seeing some great fares and June/July are looking like they won't be so bad either :)

I've talked to several other dive operators and most are picking up significantly in the next couple of weeks - so anyone that is thinking about coming down should contact your favorite dive op - they may actually be full already!

[lamont]

Maybe you guys really don't want the cruise ships bringing this plague with them?

Report: suspected swine flu on Royal Caribbean cruise ship not spreading - Cruise Log - USATODAY.com (http://www.usatoday.com/travel/cruises/item.aspx?type=blog&ak=66677237.blog)

I drive by the cruise ship dock every day on my way to work, and I think we saw that ship leaving a couple of days ago (Friday?).

[lamont]

I think that chart you posted that showed no available fares are on days that they aren't flying still - so I agree with you there - no doubt! Regardless, I've still been seeing some great fares and June/July are looking like they won't be so bad either :)


My Jun 4 flight to Cancun on Continental is still booked solid.

...

Here is actually a fairly good article:

One in three 'will catch swine flu' | Metro.co.uk (http://www.metro.co.uk/news/article.html?One_in_three_will_catch_swine_flu&in_article_id=658703&in_page_id=34&in_a_source=)

The problem is that it requires more background for the context although they give some of it.

expected to infect: 30%
expected to kill: <3,000,000

seasonal flu infects: 10%
seasonal flu kills: 500,000

1918 infected: 50%
1918 would kill today: 188,000,000-376,000,000

So, it is still going to affect us, we still need a flu shot whenever they produce a vaccine for it, its still going to affect the health industry with an uptick in seriously ill patients due to the flu, but its a long way away from an impact like the 1918 influenza pandemic...

At the same time this is more serious than the SARS outbreak was, and this is *not* a complete non-event or hysteria like Ebola or whatever...

The problem is that culturally we can't deal with any form of nuance. Either its going to kill the entire planet, or we're too modern and cynical to care about it...

[1KWIK_69]

Maybe you guys really don't want the cruise ships bringing this plague with them?

Report: suspected swine flu on Royal Caribbean cruise ship not spreading - Cruise Log - USATODAY.com (http://www.usatoday.com/travel/cruises/item.aspx?type=blog&ak=66677237.blog)

I drive by the cruise ship dock every day on my way to work, and I think we saw that ship leaving a couple of days ago (Friday?).

Well the CDC need to quarantine and restrict all travel around Lamont! It's possible those pod people caught it from you!

You can never bee too carefull!

Sorry man, it was too easy! :D

[DandyDon]

Thanks Lamont. Some people add info; some just spoil the viz...

Well the CDC need to quarantine and restrict all travel around Lamont! It's possible those pod people caught it from you!

You can never bee too carefull!

Sorry man, it was too easy! :D

[1KWIK_69]

With the revelation that this thing has been around since last fall, it makes me wonder seriously about one thing. My household was struck by a really nasty flu in February, just a few days after flying back from Grand Cayman. I wonder if it's possible we were exposed to it on our flight or during all the fun time at the airport and in customs?

Hell, I might have alrerady beaten the damn thing and not even know it. It would be really cool to find out we already have the antibodies to fight it off if we get exposed again. I know it's too late to find out now since neither of us went to the doctor.

All the symptoms were right. I had at worst a 102.6 fever, serious head congestion, chills and general body aches. It took us over two weeks to shake it.....

[DandyDon]

It was around Mexico and perhaps border US States since Fall. Doubt it was in the Caymans. Seasonal flu can be bad too.

I think that chart you posted that showed no available fares are on days that they aren't flying still - so I agree with you there - no doubt! Regardless, I've still been seeing some great fares and June/July are looking like they won't be so bad either :)
I only checked one airline, one week, one route - but they don't fly there on Tuesdays as noted. Some of the flights are simply sold out I think. Either way, they're getting back toward 3/4 full so they might decide they can add flights back on soon.

[1KWIK_69]

Thanks Lamont. Some people add info; some just spoil the viz... Well Don, with all the fear and panack talk going on about how you can't be too carefull and all the guilt by association as I see it, I see no problem with pointing out yet one more case of association. It's not much more far fetched than saying Cozumel is dangerous without any proof what's so ever.

Oh, and since when is a little sarcastic humor not allowed on here? :D

[DandyDon]

<<-----<<< Also often sarcastic.

[1KWIK_69]

<<-----<<< Also often sarcastic.

Yeah Don, I know. ;)

[lamont]

Well the CDC need to quarantine and restrict all travel around Lamont! It's possible those pod people caught it from you!

You can never bee too carefull!

Sorry man, it was too easy! :D

I agree.

At this point I should cancel my trip to MX so I don't bring it down there with me...

[MMM]

Hell, I might have alrerady beaten the damn thing and not even know it. It would be really cool to find out we already have the antibodies to fight it off if we get exposed again.



I'm betting there will be a mutation when this goes around the next time. I saw something Friday from CDC (I think) noting that some people are organizing "swine flu parties" of all things pretty sure this will win a Darwin Award). The notion is that you (and many others) get exposed to the virus and develop future immunity. What could possibly go wrong with this plan??

The paper was recommending against these for a number of reasons...

[lamont]

With the revelation that this thing has been around since last fall, it makes me wonder seriously about one thing. My household was struck by a really nasty flu in February, just a few days after flying back from Grand Cayman. I wonder if it's possible we were exposed to it on our flight or during all the fun time at the airport and in customs?

Hell, I might have alrerady beaten the damn thing and not even know it. It would be really cool to find out we already have the antibodies to fight it off if we get exposed again. I know it's too late to find out now since neither of us went to the doctor.

All the symptoms were right. I had at worst a 102.6 fever, serious head congestion, chills and general body aches. It took us over two weeks to shake it.....

We had some kind of Martian Death Flu going around work about a month ago. Wasn't the swine flu, but half the people at work got it.

[1KWIK_69]

We had some kind of Martian Death Flu going around work about a month ago. Wasn't the swine flu, but half the people at work got it.

Whatever we had was one mean bug. It was the worst I'd had in many years and my better half had never had a bad case of the flu in her life until then. We wondered if it was some exotic thing we caught on the plane.

[Martha]

Well the CDC need to quarantine and restrict all travel around Lamont! It's possible those pod people caught it from you!

You can never bee too carefull!

Sorry man, it was too easy! :D

LOL... I enjoyed your sarcastic humor. Thanks! :rofl3:

[DandyDon]

Oh yeah, it'll mutate. Viruses do. The strains in various parts of the world will be at least somewhat different by the fall wave.

Whatever we had was one mean bug. It was the worst I'd had in many years and my better half had never had a bad case of the flu in her life until then. We wondered if it was some exotic thing we caught on the plane.
Quite possibly. That's one of the joys of jet travel, exposing your to more new bugs, as well as spreading your local ones far and wide faster than ever.

[lamont]

Whatever we had was one mean bug. It was the worst I'd had in many years and my better half had never had a bad case of the flu in her life until then. We wondered if it was some exotic thing we caught on the plane.

Did it involve vomiting and diarrhea? If so, that'd be some kind of viral gastroenteritis rather than influenza. Could have been something like norovirus which is the virus most responsible for "Cruise Ship Disease" outbreaks.

[1KWIK_69]

Did it involve vomiting and diarrhea? If so, that'd be some kind of viral gastroenteritis rather than influenza. Could have been something like norovirus which is the virus most responsible for "Cruise Ship Disease" outbreaks.

Nope. Didn't have either of those. Just a really bad case of the classic flu symptoms we've been hearing so much about lately.

[1KWIK_69]

Did it involve vomiting and diarrhea? If so, that'd be some kind of viral gastroenteritis rather than influenza. Could have been something like norovirus which is the virus most responsible for "Cruise Ship Disease" outbreaks.

What got us thinking about it even more is that Shirley never gets the flu. Seriously!
Whatever it was was not the garden variety because she apparently has a good immunity to the common stuff.....

[lamont]

What got us thinking about it even more is that Shirley never gets the flu. Seriously!
Whatever it was was not the garden variety because she apparently has a good immunity to the common stuff.....

Yeah, same here. I usually just get subclinical fever symptoms that give me less energy than usual, but I can go to work and I don't get any respiratory symptoms at all. Lingers for 2-3 weeks though.

Last time (just about a month ago) I found that blasting the heat in the apartment and working out tended to knock back the symptoms for 24h or so.

I get really bad colds, usually once or twice a year, but those don't involve any fever symptoms (maybe a little achiness right at the apex 24h of the cold, but thats about it).

I used to get some kind of viral gastroenteritis once a year for awhile (twhich was usually bad enough to go to the ER for fluids), but i haven't had that since 2003.

[macado]

Guys..I fell off my rented scooter and there is a long white object sticking out of my arm.. Is this the swine flu?

[teknitroxdiver]

Guys..I fell off my rented scooter and there is a long white object sticking out of my arm.. Is this the swine flu?

:shocked2: That is a classic symptom of severe pig pox! You need to get to a hospital right away. An amputation is all that will save you now. Hurry, before it's too late!

[dive pro]

guys..i fell off my rented scooter and there is a long white object sticking out of my arm.. Is this the swine flu?

hola my friend sorry we did not have a trip go out on sat, i would have liked diving with you, like we have on past years, hope to see you again soon for your courses, rescue and dm. I am glad you had a good time in coz. In the last few days you are one of the few people that are here now and are went back or are going back home without a problem.

I got your email, let me know in advance to continue your courses.

Best regards

[MMM]

Well JUST GREAT... Air Canada has cancelled my flight to Cozumel. Now I have to hunt around for something else.

[DandyDon]

Has the airline extended their boycott, or was it the country?

Well JUST GREAT... Air Canada has cancelled my flight to Cozumel. Now I have to hunt around for something else.
Flying out of Saskatoon, Delta and Northwest offer flights, to Cancun anyway. Oddly, Sidestep & Orbitz price it cheaper as "multiple airlines" using those two carriers even tho they are now the same company.

Will AC "accommodate" your ticket on them without a fare change? Requesting that word in particular seems to have some special meaning to them.

good luck! :pilot:

[Scuba Diver Mexico]

Check out a video put together a couple of days ago (May 11th) about Puerto Vallata in general .

YouTube - Swine Flu in Mexico (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DknNF51058w)


Some of the shots are not recent and are very possibly stock footage but the interviews are up to date (except for the info on the zero cases of H1N1)

It will help everyone to make up their own mind about the situation.

At this time there are already some Flu cases in the state of Jalisco (where Vallarta is located) and Nayarit (just across the Ameca river) and there might be a couple in Vallarta but children are going back to school on Monday after 2 weeks of mandatory vacation.


Those of us living or visiting in Mexico are taking basic WHO and Secretaria de Salud precautions, but life (and of course diving !!) goes on.

We will be working on an UW mapping project at Los Arcos, Pto Vallarta in the coming days regardless , no doubt about that !

One of the diving precautions we do take is only using our own regs and/or properly desinfecting them before diving . We do not conduct real s-drills before dives, we just make sure long hoses are free in case they are needed. Of course if a long hose is needed during a dive it is better not to drown than having to take treatment for H1N1 in case of infection.

Maybe it will be a good idea to have someone in Cozumel make a similar video with divers visiting the island from abroad and mentioning how they feel about it .


Happy diving !

[MMM]

Has the airline extended their boycott, or was it the country?

Flying out of Saskatoon, Delta and Northwest offer flights, to Cancun anyway. Oddly, Sidestep & Orbitz price it cheaper as "multiple airlines" using those two carriers even tho they are now the same company.

Will AC "accommodate" your ticket on them without a fare change? Requesting that word in particular seems to have some special meaning to them.

good luck! :pilot:


It's just Cozumel they cancelled (not enough travellers they said). They are still flying to Cancun but they told me there was no availability on the flights in spite of he fact I said my dates were very flexible. And they were particularly unaccommodating as I pursued other options. I can get a decent fare on US Airways out of Toronto but it costs more to get to Toronto! So will see. I booked this trip befor I smashed up my arm so this may be a sign from God that I need to stay here and continue my physiotherapy. We'll see.

[DandyDon]

Oh hell, with your arm - if you have trip insurance - you might get a full refund and full airline credit both, depending on how the policies work there. Mine works that way. It's not fraud, but a matter of the insurance company insuring that trip, even if you can use credits later.

Lonnnnng ways from Saskatoon to Toronto...!

[MMM]

I never buy trip insurance.

[DandyDon]

I never buy trip insurance.
Ok, you self insure. Cool, pay yourself.

Does your medical coverage cover you down there?

[MMM]

Does your medical coverage cover you down there?

Not our national insurance plan - it's only good in Canada unless the health system sends you out of the country for medical care. I have supplemental health insurance for when I travel. It covered my hospital visit in Mexico and likely the surgery had I stayed. It won't cover the physio.

[CozumelAntonio]

Travel Health Precaution
CDC Travel Health Warning for Novel H1N1 Flu in Mexico Removed
This information is current as of today, May 15, 2009 at 16:56 EDT
Updated: May 15, 2009

CDCÃÔ Travel Health Warning recommending against non-essential travel to Mexico, in effect since April 27, 2009, has now been downgraded to a Travel Health Precaution for Mexico.

CDC Travel Health Warning for Mexico Removed (http://wwwn.cdc.gov/travel/content/travel-health-precaution/novel-h1n1-flu-mexico.aspx)


:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

[1KWIK_69]

Travel Health Precaution
CDC Travel Health Warning for Novel H1N1 Flu in Mexico Removed
This information is current as of today, May 15, 2009 at 16:56 EDT
Updated: May 15, 2009

CDCÃÔ Travel Health Warning recommending against non-essential travel to Mexico, in effect since April 27, 2009, has now been downgraded to a Travel Health Precaution for Mexico.

CDC Travel Health Warning for Mexico Removed (http://wwwn.cdc.gov/travel/content/travel-health-precaution/novel-h1n1-flu-mexico.aspx)


:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

Great!!!!

[dive pro]

travel health precaution
cdc travel health warning for novel h1n1 flu in mexico removed
this information is current as of today, may 15, 2009 at 16:56 edt
updated: May 15, 2009

cdcãô travel health warning recommending against non-essential travel to mexico, in effect since april 27, 2009, has now been downgraded to a travel health precaution for mexico.

cdc travel health warning for mexico removed (http://wwwn.cdc.gov/travel/content/travel-health-precaution/novel-h1n1-flu-mexico.aspx)


:d:d:d:d:d:d:d:d



mil gracias antonio, y por la votacion que bueno que haya gente como tu
gracias otra vez.....:d

[DandyDon]

http://i44.tinypic.com/4h9yls.jpg

[CozumelAntonio]

I hereby Re-submit the request to lock this thread and allow this "swine flu thing" to disappear into oblivion.

[ggunn]

Can we give it a public execution? :D

[okiraku_diver]

another good news!
Carnival Cruise Lines to resume visits to Mexico this month - Los Angeles Times (http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-carnival-cruise16-2009may16,0,3207964.story)

Itineraries
Carnival Cruise Lines - Itinerary Updates (http://www.carnival.com/cms/fun/cruise_control/itinerary_updates.aspx)

[DandyDon]

Just spoke with my friend whose son's band group had their cruise to Coz canceled. Told her the CDC had changed their notice. Her son was working at the cafe too. They're excited that they may be able to go after all.

I guess the County Clerk didn't look up the current requirements. She made all the kids get full passports, not cards. Actually, birth certificate now is accepted for kids, especially in groups - but I guess the clerk has to look it up.

I'd like to help the band director and county clerk do this better, but it's probly not appropriate as I live in another county.

[okiraku_diver]

I hereby Re-submit the request to lock this thread and allow this "swine flu thing" to disappear into oblivion.

NO, I do not agree with you.:no:
I believe situation in Mexico will be getting better, "good news" will be provided soon.
It is much more worth to spread "good news" rather than bad ones.

[DandyDon]

NO, I do not agree with you.:no:
I believe situation in Mexico will be getting better, "good news" will be provided soon.
It is much more worth to spread "good news" rather than bad ones.
What's he trying to hide now...? :eek:

[lamont]

I hereby Re-submit the request to lock this thread and allow this "swine flu thing" to disappear into oblivion.

it'll disappear into oblivion on its own...

[1KWIK_69]

mil gracias antonio, y por la votacion que bueno que haya gente como tu
gracias otra vez.....:d

Cómo se dice? mil gracias antonio, y por la votacion que bueno que haya gente como tu
gracias otra vez.....:d

Thanks Antonio and by your choice of careers, thanks again!


Again, my spanish is very limited.

[1KWIK_69]

What's he trying to hide now...? :eek:

That he's in Japan and loves Cozumel?

If that's so, that says a lot!

I agree that this thread will fade away on it's own without being locked. When and if round 2 comes around in the fall, it will be a global thing and not a "Mexico" thing, as it unjustly was this time around......

[okiraku_diver]

I apology for misunderstanding.
I will keep silence for a while....

[DandyDon]

I apology for misunderstanding.
I will keep silence for a while....
Nah, I was joking about someone else. No problem you, mate.

[dive pro]

Cómo se dice? mil gracias antonio, y por la votacion que bueno que haya gente como tu
gracias otra vez.....:d

Thanks Antonio and by your choice of careers, thanks again!


Again, my spanish is very limited.


What I said to Antonio in english:

a thousand thanks Antonio (very much used like thanks a lot in english),and also for the voting (about the cdc petition letter), it is good there are people like you
thanks again.
Sorry to all that do not speak spanish I probably should've PM'd him

[lamont]

Dr from the CDC's influenza division estimates appx 100,000 infections of swine flu in USA based on upsurge in ILI activity:

http://www.ajc.com/health/content/shared-auto/healthnews/cdc-/627172.html

That's definitely weird to have a January-like peak in ILI during May.

[Aqua Safari]

Estimado Okiraku Diver,

We miss you and hope to see you soon. Fortunately, the big scare is fading into history, and now that the US center for disease control has downgraded the travel advisory, we are receiving small groups, and are told that there will be a cruise ship or two this week, and Carnival will return in full force as of May 28. Continental Airlines will resume 2 flights a day on June 6, and one day a week there will be 3 Continental flights to Cozumel. The airline tickets are very inexpensive right now. Still no reported cases of this flu on the Island. Hope you are well and happy, we all say hello. Saludos from sunny Cozumel, Bill

[Teamcasa]

I was in Tijuana over the weekend and several people asked about the swine flu issue.
I told them the closest thing we saw was a little pigglet running down the street, flapping his tiny wings but he never really got airborne.;)

[CozumelAntonio]

Let's start by where it came from......shall we:

The Path of a Pandemic (http://www.newsweek.com/id/195692/page/1)

The Path of a Pandemic
How one virus spread from pigs and birds to humans around the globe. And why microbes like the H1N1 flu have become a growing threat.
By Laurie Garrett | NEWSWEEK
Published May 2, 2009
From the magazine issue dated May 18, 2009

Around Thanksgiving 2005 a teenage boy helped his brother-in-law butcher 31 pigs at a local Wisconsin slaughterhouse, and a week later the 17-year-old pinned down another pig while it was gutted. In the lead-up to the holidays the boy's family bought a chicken and kept the animal in their home, out of the harsh Sheboygan autumn. On Dec. 7, the teenager came down with the flu, suffering an illness that lasted three days. He visited a local clinic, then fully recovered, and nobody else in his family took ill.

This incident would hardly seem worth mentioning except that the influenza virus that infected the Wisconsin lad was unlike any previously seen. It appeared to be a mosaic of a wild-bird form of flu, a human type and a strain found in pigs.

It was an H1N1 swine influenza. Largely ignored at the time, the Wisconsin virus was a step along the evolutionary tree, leading to a virus that four years later would stun the world.

Flash-forward to April 2009, and young ŽÉdgar Enrique HernáÏdez in faraway La Gloria, Mexico, suffers a bout of flu, found to be caused by a similar mosaic of swine/bird/human flu, also H1N1. And thousands of miles away in Cairo, the Egyptian government decides pigs are the source of disease, and orders 300,000 animals in the predominantly Muslim (therefore not pork-consuming) society slaughtered.

Each of these three incidents is related to the unfolding influenza crisis. It is the manner of human beings to seek blame during times of fear. Fingers are now pointing, either at the entire pig species Sus domestica, or at the nation of Mexico. Such exercises in blame are not only scientifically ill founded, ut are likely to prompt government actions that, at the very least, are useless and, at worst, harmful for efforts to control a pandemic.

We live in a globalized world, filled with shared microbial threats that arise in one place, are amplified somewhere else through human activities that aid and abet the germs, and then traverse vast geographic terrains in days, even hoursÍÂgain, thanks to human activities and movements. If there is blame to be meted out, it should be directed at the species Homo sapiens and the manifest ways in which we are reshaping the world ecology, offering germs like the influenza virus extraordinary new opportunities to evolve, mutate and spread.

Back in 2005, the Wisconsin Division of Public Health hunted for sick pigs in Sheboygan County, but the animals the teenager had helped slaughter came from multiple farms across the area, and every farmer claimed his herd was healthy. The Wisconsin authorities forwarded blood samples from the infected teenager and his family to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta. The CDC scientists discovered that the H1N1 virus had pieces of its RNA genetic material that matched a human flu first seen in New Caledonia in 1999, two swine types that had been circulating in Asia and Wisconsin for several years and an unknown avian-flu virus.

In 2006 the American Association of Swine Veterinarians reported that humans were passing their H1N1 viruses to pigs, causing widespread illness in swine herds, especially in the American Midwest. A year later at a county fair in Ohio an outbreak occurred, sickening many of the pigs, but not their human handlers. The cause was a type of H1N1 that was a close match to the Wisconsin strain, and may have been spread from human to pig.

Last year researchers from Iowa State University in Ames warned that pigs located in industrial-scale farms were being subjected to influenza infections from farm poultry, wild birds and their human handlers. Writing in The Journal of Infectious Diseases, Eileen Thacker and Bruce Janke said, "As a result of the constantly changing genetic makeup of individual influenza viruses in pigs, the U.S. swine industry is continually scrambling to respond to the influenza viruses circulating within individual production systems."

Something was changing. Pigs notoriously eat just about anything thrown their way, and rub up against each other frequently, readily passing infections within herds. Their stomachs are remarkably tolerant environs for microbes, which since ancient times have caused illness in humans who dined on raw or undercooked pork. Investigation of the 1918 influenza pandemic, which is now estimated to have killed up to 100 million people worldwide in 18 months, revealed that the viral culprit was a type H1N1 human flu that had infected pigs, and then circulated back to humans.

At the viral level, influenza is an awfully sloppy microbe that is in a constant state of mutation and evolution. Its genetic material is in the form of RNA (not DNA, as in humans), loosely collected into chromosomes. When a virus infects a cell, its chromosomes essentially fall apart into a mess, which is copied to make more viruses that then enter the bloodstream to spread throughout the body. Along the way in this copying process any other genetic material that may be lying about the cell is also stuffed into the thousands of viral copies that are made. If the virus happens to be reproducing this way inside a human cell, it picks up Homo sapiensgenetic material; from a chicken cell it absorbs avian genes; and from a pig cell it garners swine RNA. The jackpot events in influenza evolution occur when two different types of flu viruses happen to get into an animal cell at the same time, swapping entire chromosomes to create "reassorted" viruses. What was infecting that teenager in Sheboygan was a triple reassortment, resulting in a new virus with bits of genes from three species of animalsÍÐne of them Homo sapiens.

But who pays attention to such things? Other than vets, pig farmers and the occasional virologist, not many people in public health, government or medicine usually give much thought to the four-legged viral mixing vessels that oink their way around family farms and vast industrial pork-production centers. Thacker and Janke's 2008 writing seems sadly prescient today: "Pigs would be an ideal mixing vessel for the creation of new avian/mammalian influenza viruses capable of causing novel diseases with the potential for producing pandemics in the human population It is apparent that, in the U.S. swine industry, transmission of influenza viruses between swine and humans is fairly common and is bidirectional."

Nine months ago the Texas Department of State Health Services reported the case to the CDC of an individual who was exposed to ailing pigs. The Texan came down with flu, spread it to no one and was fine after a few days. In the patient's blood, CDC scientists found "a swine influenza A (H1N1) triple reassortant virus, A/Wisconsin/87/2005 H1N1," the same virus that infected the Sheboygan teenager three years earlier.

And then, this March, the outbreak of 2009 commenced. It might not have been noticed, frankly, if things unfolded in the same bird/human/swine manner as had previously evoked only humdrum attention in Wisconsin, Ohio and Texas. But this time, people died.

[CozumelAntonio]

In mid-March the number of routinely reported influenza cases in several Mexican states suddenly spiked upward. At roughly the same time, public-health authorities in southern California spotted two separate cases of flu in children: a 10-year-old boy in San Diego County, and a 9-year-old girl in Imperial County. Though both children survived their illnesses, there was evidence that it had spread to family members, and samples of the children's blood were examined at the CDC in early April. Bingo: H1N1 triple-reassorted influenza. Meanwhile, in Mexico, more than 50 serious flu cases emerged over the same time period, and the government forwarded blood samples to Canada's top infectious-diseases lab in Winnipeg. The Canadians confirmed that the Mexican mystery virus was H1N1, and the potential pandemic saga unfolded.

In Mexico, attention has focused on little ŽÉdgar Enrique HernáÏdez, who is believed to have come down with the new flu on April 2. The blame for HernáÏdez's infection is aimed at an American-owned industrial pig center located near the child's home in La Gloria. Residents had long complained about the stench and dust from the plant, and have eagerly named it as the source of the child's infection. It may be true that HernáÏdez inhaled H1N1 from a pig, but because other cases emerged in March, the timing of the case is off: ŽÉdgar HernáÏdez is not Patient Zero in the outbreak of 2009.

This virus has been evolving for a long time, no doubt aided in its transformation by the ecology of industrial-scale pig farming in North America. Some scientists say there are genetic elements in the virus that date back to an Indiana pig farm in 1987. In that sense, it is similar to the "bird flu," or H5N1, which surfaced in wild migratory water birds in southern China some time in the early 1990s and infected people in Hong Kong in 1997. As that virus has evolved over the past 12 years, it has taken advantage of large poultry farms, and major bird-migration centers, to spread rapidly and absorb new genetic material along the way. In 2005, as H5N1 spread to Siberia and Europe, the United Nations and the Bush administration mobilized cash, scientific expertise and the needed infrastructure to find and contain outbreaks, primarily by slaughtering infected chicken flocks.

In Indonesia, where the virus has spread to pigs and humans, it appears H5N1 can be passed, in rare cases, between people, and human infection is an extraordinarily dangerous event: 82 percent of infected Indonesians have succumbed to the flu virus. The global average mortality rate for H5N1 in people is 63 percent, which makes it one of the most fearsome microbes on earth.

Here, then, is where we stand.

We have a new virus in the world that appears to be very contagious between people, and possibly between swine and humans. It is, fortunately, treatable with the antiviral drugs Tamiflu and Relenza (oseltamivir and zanamivir), but it is resistant to the other major class of anti-flu drugs, amantadines. It is still evolving, and moving, and its ultimate trajectory cannot be seen right now. We do not yet know how deadly this virus is: while Mexico has been able to track down the numbers of dead and hospitalized H1N1 cases, it cannot determine just how many Mexicans have been infected with the virus since it started spreading there in late March. It's one thing to say that 150 people out of, perhaps, 10 million infected have died: that gives you a case fatality rate that is roughly what we see with normal, seasonal flu. (Each year, seasonal flu kills 36,000 people in the United States alone.) It's quite another story if Mexico's denominator is 5,000, for a case fatality rate of 3 percent--a full percentage point worse than the rate seen with the 1918 influenza. It is urgent that we discern the denominator.

We have a second, closely related H1N1 human virus in circulation around the world. Though widespread, it is not unusually lethal. Last year this virus developed full resistance to Tamiflu. It would be most disturbing if the 2008 H1N1 human virus were to reassort with the new swine/human virus, as we could then be facing a more drug-resistant pandemic strain of influenza, treatable only with the drug Relenza, which must be administered with an inhaler device. We have a third, older pandemic in poultry, occasionally infecting humans, that involves the H5N1 virus. This pandemic has circulated long enough so that the virus has branched into several evolutionary trees, including forms that are drug-resistant. In Egypt, where it is common for urban families to raise chickens in their yards, H5N1 has caused a significant number of human cases, and its spread appears to be uncontrolled. The World Health Organization (WHO) is distressed by evidence that H5N1 is becoming less deadly for people. That could mean that the bird-flu virus is evolving toward a less-lethal form that is more capable of spreading between people.

It is supremely ironic, then, that the Egyptian government in late April started slaughtering the nation's 300,000 pigs as an alleged flu-control measure. The swine form of H1N1 may not be in Egypt as of this writing, but the chicken H5N1 most definitely is, and has to date infected 68 Egyptians, killing 23. Egypt has never carried out wholesale slaughter of poultry, as chicken is a staple of the national diet. Pork, in contrast, is consumed only by the minority Christian population. An Egyptian Islamist group has declared that swine flu is "God's revenge against infidels."

The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt recently declared that the Cairo-based U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit (NAMRU), which has provided public-health work for the entire Middle East for decades, must be shut down, and Egypt must stop sending samples of H5N1 viruses that emerge in the country to the WHO. The Egyptian group, which holds seats in Parliament, is echoing sentiments first put forward by Indonesia's minister of health, Siti Supari, who has refused to share her country's H5N1 samples with the WHO since 2006. Supari is also trying to evict another NAMRU lab from Jakarta. On April 28, Supari declared that the new swine flu was genetically engineered and released in order to promote American pharmaceutical sales worldwide.

Two days later, Supari denied making such statements, though they were con-sistent with her longstanding claim that rich countries--particularly the United States--prey on poorer nations in the interest of drug-company profits. In heated negotiations with the World Health Organization and the U.S. government, Supari has insisted on the existence of "viral sovereignty," wherein nations own any viruses that they discover within their boundaries, have the right to refuse sharing them with the WHO or any other foreign entity and may demand all profits derived from vaccines and other products made from those viruses. Under this principle, Indonesia refuses to allow the outside world access to at least 50 H5N1 strains thought to have emerged in that country since 2005. Without access to the various viral strains, scientists cannot tell if H5N1 is evolving dangerous attributes in Indonesia, or whether the hideously high death rate in infected people there is due to some unique viral characteristics. Therefore, the principle of viral sovereignty directly imperils the entire global community--as well as Supari's own people. On April 30, the WHO repudiated another Supari claim: that Indonesians have special genetic or environmental traits that would keep them safe from the new swine flu.

Happily, Mexico has shown the world how a responsible nation can respond to a potential pandemic. By moving swiftly to shut down schools, entertainment and places of social congregation, MexicoÍÂn already beleaguered economyÍÊs facing dire financial consequences. But its dramatic actions may be saving Mexican lives, and slowing down the outbreak of 2009. In that sense, the world owes Mexico a big gracias.
Governments the world over would do well to pay attention to Mexico's response, and learn from it. Throughout Asia, governments have been pulling their old SARS-epidemic thermal monitors out of mothballs, and scanning people for evidence of fevers. That worked for SARS control because the SARS virus was almost exclusively contagious when people were running fevers. Not so with influenza: flu can be very contagious before the individual carrier has any symptoms at all, much less a fever.

Worse, some governments are banning pork products from the Americas, as if it were possible to get the flu from eating a cooked sausage. It is not.

A wiser set of pig-related actions would turn to the strange ecology we have created to feed meat to our massive human population. It is a strange world wherein billions of animals are concentrated into tiny spaces, breeding stock is flown to production sites all over the world and poorly paid migrant workers are exposed to infected animals. And it's going to get much worse, as the world's once poor populations of India and China enter the middle class. Back in 1980 the per capita meat consumption in China was about 44 pounds a year: it now tops 110 pounds. In 1983 the world consumed 152 million tons of meat a year. By 1997 consumption was up to 233 million tons. And the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that by 2020 world consumption could top 386 million tons of pork, chicken, beef and farmed fish.

This is the ecology that, in the cases of pigs and chickens, is breeding influenza. It is an ecology that promotes viral evolution. And if we don't do something about it, this ecology will one day spawn a severe pandemic that will dwarf that of 1918.

Garrett is the senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations, and a Pulitzer Prize-winning writer. She is the author of "The Coming Plague: Newly Emerging Diseases in a World Out of Balance" and "Betrayal of Trust: The Collapse of Global Public Health."

[Aqua Safari]

Estimado Cozumel Antonio,

Muchas gracias for the Newsweek article. It's the most comprehensive I have read. We should send it to CNN and other scandal mongers; it integrates isolated bits and pieces others have published.
Gratefully, Bill

[DandyDon]

Maybe y'all missed the one I posted earlier that suggested the path may have been from US California to Mexico...?

And the combining of human, swine, and fowl flu strains has long been recognized as a problem, especially in China where poor farm families live on the same pond used by the pigs, ducks, and geese. Mentioned that a few pages ago.

But then, where it originated never seemed important. What was important was what did it take to control spread. One week, medical experts who know more than anyone on this thread had good reason to focus on preventing large invasions from Mexico, and with free travel within Mexico - had to issue reasonable statements about Mexico travel, as inconvenient as it was to some. Many Mexicans, many airlines, and many others got hurt but it was needed.

Weeks have passed, things changed gradually, and now it's a global thing.

[MMM]

Canada has now withdrawn its travel advisory to Mexico...not that I agreed with it in the first place. and regrettably it comes after Air Canada cancelled my flight.

[lamont]

Maybe y'all missed the one I posted earlier that suggested the path may have been from US California to Mexico...?

And the combining of human, swine, and fowl flu strains has long been recognized as a problem, especially in China where poor farm families live on the same pond used by the pigs, ducks, and geese. Mentioned that a few pages ago.


I also mentioned the previous cases of H1N1 swine influenza infections in humans.

Also that Newsweek article had a lot of comments in it about the possibility of another reassortment with other circulating virus strains which make it more lethal, more virulent or pick up immunity to Tamiflu from the circulating H1N1 human influenza that has already acquired that immunity. That is why I've been repeatedly saying that we need to watch this virus to see how it evolves.

And, on the basis of the CDC flu doc who estimated 100,000 infections in the US, there should be about 1,000 deaths (on the basis of the typical 0.1% influenza death rate). Since we only know about a handful of them that means that there are about two orders of magnitude of deaths which are not being laboratory confirmed -- we'll probably only find out about them much later after looking at historical upticks in ILI and deaths due to pneumonia.

Local news just reported 410 confirmed cases in WA state...

[lamont]

dup..

[DandyDon]

dup..
We really should have 60 seconds to delete a post. :silly:

The Flu Tracker site is keeping talling, altho it was slow to update at times - leaving the Yuc-Pen off for a while even after confirmed. Maybe they're not familiar with the Mexican states and don't have the resources to be that exact? The US is about to catch up to Mexico in numbers altho not density.

Interesting area of hot spots on the US map along the border west of El Paso, and what is Washington state doing with such a concentration...?

[lamont]

Interesting area of hot spots on the US map along the border west of El Paso, and what is Washington state doing with such a concentration...?

dunno... population density along with colder temperatures?

oh, some of it may just be reporting as well... seattle has a lot of biomedical companies, a lot of biomed research with a lot of cross pollination between public and private sectors and generally good medical facilities... i imagine that harborview probably has a lot more access to PCR facilities than a lot of towns in idaho or wyoming do...

[1KWIK_69]

Also that Newsweek article had a lot of comments in it about the possibility of another reassortment with other circulating virus strains which make it more lethal, more virulent or pick up immunity to Tamiflu from the circulating H1N1 human influenza that has already acquired that immunity. That is why I've been repeatedly saying that we need to watch this virus to see how it evolves.

Not trying to pick an argument here but that's about as one sided a comment as I've heard yet.

Newsweek points out the worst case scenario of the virus mutating to a more lethal strain but totally leaves out the just as likely scenario that it could mutate into a less dangerous strain that could be less resistant to Tamiflu.

Have you ever heard the story of Ebola Resden? Everyone thinks of ebola as a non airborn virus with a 90% mortality rate and yet, the one time it mutated to be airborn and made it to America, the symptoms of that strain were no worse than a mild cold to humans. That particular mutation that made it airborn and still lethal to monkeys also made it a whimp where humans are concerned. Scientists cannot tell you what mutations will take place or how they will affect people. It's all a guessing game.

[lamont]

Not trying to pick an argument here but that's about as one sided a comment as I've heard yet.


You are just hearing what you want to hear in order to pick a fight.

I said _possibility_.

And your counter-example makes a far from certain case that it will definitely involve into a less-virulent, less-lethal form. A counter-counter-example (which is far more relevant) is the 1918 influenza which came in several waves of increasing severity rather than decreasing.

And I would actually place bets on decreasing severity and virulence as it evolves along with the human immune system -- but that is not a sure bet, and we should always maintain a partially hedged position.

[1KWIK_69]

You are just hearing what you want to hear in order to pick a fight.

I said _possibility_.

And your counter-example makes a far from certain case that it will definitely involve into a less-virulent, less-lethal form. A counter-counter-example (which is far more relevant) is the 1918 influenza which came in several waves of increasing severity rather than decreasing.

And I would actually place bets on decreasing severity and virulence as it evolves along with the human immune system -- but that is not a sure bet, and we should always maintain a partially hedged position.

It's funny how Newsweek chose to say there's a possibility it will become more lethal and failed to say there's just as much possibility it will become less lethal or it might not even have any change at all. While scientists are busy guessing, I'll be guessing that doom and gloom sells more magazines. :shakehead:

Why don't they all just say, Scientists don't have a clue whether or will get worse, and the best defense is washing your hands, not picking your nose, not touching your eyes and not putting your fingers in your mouth? Purel is a great safety net if people aren't near a sink and soap. They make tiny little pocket sized bottles just for that. :D

[DandyDon]

It's funny how Newsweek chose to say there's a possibility it will become more lethal and failed to say there's just as much possibility it will become less lethal or it might not even have any change at all. While scientists are busy guessing, I'll be guessing that doom and gloom sells more magazines. :shakehead:

Why don't they all just say, Scientists don't have a clue whether or will get worse, and the best defense is washing your hands, not picking your nose, not touching your eyes and not putting your fingers in your mouth? Purel is a great safety net if people aren't near a sink and soap. They make tiny little pocket sized bottles just for that. :D
I think you're more or less right there.

A virus does better in the wild if it doesn't kill the host off too fast like SARS did and the primary purpose of any living being is to live & reproduce. Yet, a virus is such a sloppy, simple life form that it screws up along those lines.

I've gotten better at sterilizing my hands trying to get into the practice. Don't want to live in a bubble and avoid all exposures, but this will be a good year to reduce.

[salty_dog_68]

Oh, contraire dandy don. Viruses are not sloppy at all. They are very efficient opportunistic machines that have evolved over millions of years, much like the shark.

[DandyDon]

Oh, contraire dandy don. Viruses are not sloppy at all. They are very efficient opportunistic machines that have evolved over millions of years, much like the shark.
Oh? Science seems to say otherwise - since sharks have changed little, reproduce sexually, etc vs viruses that change constantly, reproduce asexually, etc. They barely even qualify as life forms biologically, but then are efficient at doing what they do - reproducing as parasites to their hosts.

[ggunn]

Oh, contraire dandy don. Viruses are not sloppy at all. They are very efficient opportunistic machines that have evolved over millions of years, much like the shark.

I have heard immunologists refer to viruses as being "sloppy" because they don't replicate their own DNA very accurately and sometimes pick up and incorporate chunks of it from their hosts. It's one of the things that make them so dangerous and hard to target with vaccines. I read that the mutation that made the horrifically deadly outbreak of "Spanish flu" in 1918 so lethal happened when it passed though a population of horses that were being bivouaced in Oklahoma at the end of WWI.

[DandyDon]

Thanks again Gordo! ".."sloppy" because they don't replicate their own DNA very accurately and sometimes pick up and incorporate chunks of it from their hosts" is indeed correct, but I haven't been up long. :blush:

[lamont]

it looks like the virus is picking up steam in Australia, which will be interesting to see if it replaces seasonal H3N2 flu. Seems like there's still a lot of hysteria over cruise ships and air passengers carrying swine flu.

A guy I work with just got sick with flu-like symptoms along with his kids. I skipped a party he threw yesterday, not so much because I'm worried about swine flu, but because I don't want to get any flu-like illness right before heading down to mexico for vacation.

[tedgarner]

That would just be great the island has no flu and the cruise ships bring it to us.
That raises the question is safe for cozumel to let the ships come back.

[DandyDon]

That would just be great the island has no flu and the cruise ships bring it to us.
That raises the question is safe for cozumel to let the ships come back.
I doubt that it'll be reported.

This has been a good wake-up call for me, reminding me to take extra cautions, opening the public bathroom door with the paper towel I'd just dried with, washing hands more often especially before eating and after handling money, getting into habits of limiting exposures. Hopefully I'd acquire just enough of any bug when I do to update my immunities but not enough to make me ill. Hand sterilizer is cheap, I carry a few 2-3 oz bottles in my pickup, cargo pants, etc. and use it daily.

http://i42.tinypic.com/2zxryuh.gif

[DandyDon]

Level Six Soon Likely WHO considers move to pandemic phase 6 for H1N1 virus (http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/06/02/swine.flu.who/index.html)

(CNN) -- The World Health Organization announced Tuesday it is still considering increasing its pandemic alert level to phase 6 because of growing worldwide cases of the H1N1 virus, or swine flu.

"Globally, we are at phase 5, but we are nearing phase 6," said Dr. Keiji Fukuda, WHO's Assistant Director General. "As this continues to spread internationally, some countries are moving from isolated to sustained community spread."

Phase 6 is a declaration that many member countries have long feared could mean economic disaster. It is the highest on the WHO's pandemic alert system, and is described by the organization as a global pandemic.

Fukuda was quick to remind journalists that the designation does not reflect the severity of the disease, but how widespread it is.

"Our overall assessment of severity is moderate," he said, "because although the overall number of serious and fatal cases is relatively limited ... we really don't have a full handle on the number of people with serious illness."

Fukuda said nearly 19,000 cases of the H1N1 virus have been reported in 64 countries, resulting in 117 deaths.

[lamont]

It looks like it is going to at least spread in Australia like seasonal flu. Australia is upping the pandemic alert, but ratcheting back the restrictions as they simply lose control over its spread:



SWINE flu is now officially out of control in Victoria, prompting health authorities to abandon testing all but the most severe cases.

School closures will cease and home quarantine restricted to suspected cases, but not their close contacts.

As the number of confirmed Victorian cases hit 521, the Federal Government put the state on a higher pandemic alert than the rest of Australia.


reference: Victorian health authorities abandon pig flu testing | Herald Sun (http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25583839-661,00.html)



That would just be great the island has no flu and the cruise ships bring it to us.
That raises the question is safe for cozumel to let the ships come back.

Its becoming apparent that swine flu is going to become the seasonal flu, so you're going to either have someone fly in or a cruise ship docks and give to everyone else, just like normal flu. Hopefully you won't see it until fall though.

The biggest problem to cozumel would probably be a cruise ship docking with 20-40% of the people onboard sick due an isolated outbreak. That could overwhelm the local medical facilities. Hopefully in that case the ship would get re-routed though.

[DandyDon]

"Now where did we put the ship's cholera flag...? :confused:

[ggunn]

One thing to remember in a global *demic is that it's always flu season somewhere.

[1KWIK_69]

Thanks again Gordo! ".."sloppy" because they don't replicate their own DNA very accurately and sometimes pick up and incorporate chunks of it from their hosts" is indeed correct, but I haven't been up long. :blush:

You've got it about right other than viruses don't have DNA. They aren't even that complex. They have what's called RNA, or RIBO NUCLEIC ACID instead of DEOXY RIBO NUCLEIC ACID like more complex life forms have. It doesn't take much to change RNA to more or even less lethal strains and there is no pattern or intelligence to it. It either survives in the host and speads to other hosts to replicate it's self, or if it dies off. Natural selection is the only thing that drives a viruses survival and success.

[lamont]

You've got it about right other than viruses don't have DNA. They aren't even that complex. They have what's called RNA, or RIBO NUCLEIC ACID instead of DEOXY RIBO NUCLEIC ACID like more complex life forms have. It doesn't take much to change RNA to more or even less lethal strains and there is no pattern or intelligence to it. It either survives in the host and speads to other hosts to replicate it's self, or if it dies off. Natural selection is the only thing that drives a viruses survival and success.

Its really just that viruses lack the chemical mechanisms that we have which self-repair DNA. They don't self-repair their RNA replication. DNA replication has mistakes just like RNA, but there's chemical Quality Assurance steps which try to reduce that.