Here comes Tropical Storm Paula - Wednesday hurricane landing possible

[DandyDon]

Formerly known as Invest 98, it's been organizing just east of Nicaragua for a few days with a lot of uncertainty in direction and possibilities, but today - she bypassed the upgrade to TD and went to Tropical Storm Paula with aspirations of making hurricane tomorrow and landing on Mexico Wednesday. Some computers give other possibilities...

She may not make it and/or may veer inland, but anyone traveling on Wednesday may well want to watch her, especially with needed ferry crossings. My preferred weather forecasting site: Tropical Weather : Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/?MR=1) Hoping for the best...

rom Dr Masters...
Proximity to land is hampering Paula's ability to intensify some, and the storm's northwest movement of 10 mph will take the center far enough away from the coast of Honduras this evening to substantially increase the storm's ability to intensify. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for wind shear to stay mostly in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, through Tuesday afternoon, then increase to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, for the remainder of the week. The computer models predict Paula will continue on a northwest motion then turn more north-northwest on Wednesday, which would take the storm close to landfall on the coast of Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. At that time, Paula may be approaching Category 2 hurricane status, due to the moderate wind shear, SSTs of 29°C, and a sufficiently moist atmosphere. On Wednesday, there is considerable doubt about the future path of Paula. Steering currents in the Western Caribbean will collapse, potentially allowing Paula to wander in the region for many days, as predicted by the GFS and HWRF models. It is also possible that Paula will push far enough inland over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula that the storm will dissipate, as predicted by the NOGAPS model. Finally, if Paula grows strong quickly, and pushes far enough north, it could get caught up a strong trough of low pressure predicted to traverse the U.S. this week (and spawn a Nor'easter for New England this weekend.) In this scenario, offered by the GFDL model, Paula would make a sharp turn to the east-northeast, hit western Cuba, bring tropical storm-force finds to the Florida Keys on Thursday, then move into the Bahama Islands by Friday or Saturday. It is too early to say which of these scenarios is the most likely, as the storm is just forming and the models do not have a good handle on it yet. Regardless, northern Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula will receive dangerous flooding rains from Paula today through Wednesday.
As he said, there is still a lot of uncertainty, but Coz is in the zone of hate path for Wednesday...


Maps should automatically update for the duration...

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201018_5day.gif

With computer guesses suggesting other possibilities...


http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at201018_model_zoom.gif

[driftwood]

Thanks Don,

I sure hope those smart boy's predictions are on target, we fly into Belize on Saturday.

[lamont]

latest predictions are kicking it up to a category 2

[Christi]

Looks like this one is the real deal!

Tomorrow will be a major prep day and Wed night and all day Thursday looks like we'll be in it until Friday and out of here by the weekend if the current forecast holds! This one gave us no warning!

Will keep updates posted as I can! Wish us luck and keep the island in your prayers please!

[scubawife]

Crazy weather all over the place this year. I think this is the first time I can remember seeing a Hurricane coming to the Yucatan after the first Norte. If it can't just go away, I hope that it doesn't get any stronger. Sounds like it's going to be a very busy day in Cozumel tomorrow.

[lamont]

yeah, this one looks like it may get a bit exciting...

[Basscat]

Godspeed, Cozumel. Hope it fizzles out or turns away, my thoughts are with La Isla.....

[DandyDon]

Thanks Don,

I sure hope those smart boy's predictions are on target, we fly into Belize on Saturday.
Too early to have any idea. Amazingly some of the computer guesses send it back the way it came after a u-turn in the Coz area. :dontknow: Currently they all give Belize a wide margin altho some had aimed that way at times over the last few days.

latest predictions are kicking it up to a category 2
Dr.Masters was suggestion the possibility. Looks like the map now suggests it in the Coz area as one.

Looks like this one is the real deal!

Tomorrow will be a major prep day and Wed night and all day Thursday looks like we'll be in it until Friday and out of here by the weekend if the current forecast holds! This one gave us no warning!

Will keep updates posted as I can! Wish us luck and keep the island in your prayers please!
It popped up down south on the 8th but the computer models have been guessing at all sorts of directions. At least it's a 1 or 2 and not a 4 or 5. Continental.com doesn't seem to have any traveler warnings, but if I had plans to arrive the next few days, I think I would consider calling to negotiate, especially if my plans included a ferry ride on Wednesday - but Thursday looks like a better arrival day than Tuesday or Wednesday.

[scubajim]

Hi hope it spares Cozumel, God willing.

[Christi]

Too early to have any idea. Amazingly some of the computer guesses send it back the way it came after a u-turn in the Coz area. :dontknow: Currently they all give Belize a wide margin altho some had aimed that way at times over the last few days.

Dr.Masters was suggestion the possibility. Looks like the map now suggests it in the Coz area as one.

It popped up down south on the 8th but the computer models have been guessing at all sorts of directions. At least it's a 1 or 2 and not a 4 or 5. Continental.com doesn't seem to have any traveler warnings, but if I had plans to arrive the next few days, I think I would consider calling to negotiate, especially if my plans included a ferry ride on Wednesday - but Thursday looks like a better arrival day than Tuesday or Wednesday.

I'm guessing that Wednesday flights won't come in if this path stays true overnight and through tomorrow.

Yep, it was a small area of disturbed weather a few days ago - but no one here was really worried about it - then this afternoon it went from an Invest to TS and has a more solid path and forecast - and it's moving fast - so in that regard, we had very little warning and time to prepare!

I would encourage those with plans to arrive this weekend to sit tight and wait to see what actually happens before you change travel plans - there's still plenty of time for you to make a decision based on what we will actually know after the storm rather than what COULD happen at this point!

Looking at the flash tracker - it looks like it may just brush the east side of the island - but of course that could change too!

Time for bed - it will be an earlier morning than usual! :)

[DandyDon]

Yeah, it's been flaky, and these things do veer off path sometimes. Will there be diving Tuesday or will Ops start pulling boats out of the water early do you think - or will that vary?

Based on my uneducated look at the maps, I'd be leery of arriving Tuesday or Wednesday, with better hopes for Thursday - unless it does make a U-turn as some computer guesses suggest. Planes may still land at Cancun Wednesday, but the ferry would be doubtful.

For anyone already there: Hunker down...! :peepwalla:

[Christi]

Yeah, it's been flaky, and these things do veer off path sometimes. Will there be diving Tuesday or will Ops start pulling boats out of the water early do you think - or will that vary?

Based on my uneducated look at the maps, I'd be leery of arriving Tuesday or Wednesday, with better hopes for Thursday - unless it does make a U-turn as some computer guesses suggest. Planes may still land at Cancun Wednesday, but the ferry would be doubtful.

We've got the tanks ordered - but - since we are under an official Hurricane warning now - we are expecting the port to be closed so that everyone can make final preparations - it's not just the boats and the shops - we've got to give our crews time to secure their property as well - so I don't expect anyone to be diving tomorrow.

Anyone who wants to pull their boats out of the water is going to face challenges - considering that the west side of Melgar is literally dug apart for a 1 mile stretch (from where the new car ferry is going in almost all the way to Villa Blanca) - they are installing a new drainage system - what timing huh? Meridiano (next to Blue Angel) has one of the only boat ramps - and it's not accessible right now - we'll see how they're dealing with that tomorrow!

[Diver Kat]

Hey Christi! You & everyone else stay safe!! And tell Sue Sue I was thinking of her as well!!

[Sue Sue]

Hi Kat, How sweet if you..thanks ! Will keep you posted the best as we can. Sue & Mike

[Christi]

Hey Christi! You & everyone else stay safe!! And tell Sue Sue I was thinking of her as well!!

I will Kat - even though she already saw your message :D Sue Sue and Mike will be my storm buddies this year so I don't have to ride it out alone - my better half is in the states right now - on his way back from Florida to TX actually - will get home on Sunday I hope! :(

[Prop Joe]

Now Cat 1 Hurricane Paula:
Hurricane Advisories National Hurricane Center (http://stormcarib.com/adv3.htm)

According to Stormcarib.com . As of 10/12/10, 5:30am the center is forecast to be within 30 miles of the island:
"Results for Cozumel, Mexico (20.44N, 86.93W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 20.4N, 86.5W or about 27.9 miles (44.9 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 28.5 hours (Wednesday, Octover 13 at 9:30AM EDT)."

Image:
http://weather.nsstc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&info=ir&lat=17.6&lon=-85.2&width=650&height=650&palette=spect.pal&zoom=1

Looks like she's going to rain on my arrival parade.
Good luck everyone!

[Christi]

Better news this morning - but the port is closed as of 7:30am this morning.

Last night before I went to bed, they were predicting it to come in at a Cat 2/3 - now back down to a Cat 1 coming the closest at 11am tomorrow and moving out of here Thursday/Friday.

By Sunday, according to Buoyweather.com - winds will be back down and out of the south so I suspect we'll lose water activities through Friday for sure and possibly Saturday - but by Sunday everything should be back on schedule if the current projectory holds true :)

[judydivescoz]

In Cozumel now. My friends are working this morning pulling out their boats, getting fuel and securing their home. Lets hope it stays Cat 1.

[Okc_diver]

Is it expected to be a direct hit or pass close by?

[CozumelAntonio]

Better news this morning - but the port is closed as of 7:30am this morning.

Last night before I went to bed, they were predicting it to come in at a Cat 2/3 - now back down to a Cat 1 coming the closest at 11am tomorrow and moving out of here Thursday/Friday.

By Sunday, according to Buoyweather.com - winds will be back down and out of the south so I suspect we'll lose water activities through Friday for sure and possibly Saturday - but by Sunday everything should be back on schedule if the current projectory holds true :)

From looking at the latest forecast images, it looks like it will be here overnight, not 11am tomorrow. It is moving fast, so it's not able to grow in strength which is good, and it's veering a little east of us, so we might miss a direct hit alltogether, which means we could be back in the water by Friday (crossing fingers).

[Christi]

In Cozumel now. My friends are working this morning pulling out their boats, getting fuel and securing their home. Lets hope it stays Cat 1.

We are not taking the boats out of the water - just taking the few electronics, canopy's and engine off the boats and securing them very well.

[Christi]

From looking at the latest forecast images, it looks like it will be here overnight, not 11am tomorrow. It is moving fast, so it's not able to grow in strength which is good, and it's veering a little east of us, so we might miss a direct hit alltogether, which means we could be back in the water by Friday (crossing fingers).

This is where I saw 11am tomorrow:

How close can it get? - Closest Point of Approach - Caribbean Hurricane Network (http://stormcarib.com/closest.cgi)

Results for Cozumel, Mexico (20.44N, 86.93W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 20.4N, 86.7W or about 15.2 miles (24.4 km) from your location. This is corresponding with the 36 hour position of the 5-day forecast (Wednesday, Octover 13 at 11:00AM EDT).

And according to NOAA - strongest winds at storm center 90mph - hurricane force winds only extend out 10 miles form the center - so more like 70ish for this side of the island - we've had norte's that strong - so I'm optimistic that this will be an annoyance more than anything else :) We're still prepping though!

[blue steal]

Thank you for the updates. Stay safe all.

[judydivescoz]

We are not taking the boats out of the water - just taking the few electronics, canopy's and engine off the boats and securing them very well.

Rita and Robert are taking Frigate and Libra out as I type. The Albatros is the only boat in the water. Crew is waiting in line to fill up the trucks with gas. I am home taking down all the stuff decorating the terraces and bringing in the furniture. Happy hour is starting very late today!!

[Diver Kat]

I will Kat - even though she already saw your message :D Sue Sue and Mike will be my storm buddies this year so I don't have to ride it out alone - my better half is in the states right now - on his way back from Florida to TX actually - will get home on Sunday I hope! :(

Glad you're all together! You couldn't ask for a better support team than those two! :D

[Zman96]

Good luck everybody on the island and those traveling there in the next few days. Hopefully the new predictions for a smaller storm and a track to the east stay correct.

[budaman]

Hoping everyone there comes through this with a minimum of fuss.....your optimism is inspiring. We come in Saturday for our inspection of the house we have under contract...Henny assures us everything should be fine. Fingers crossed!

Keep dry.

Mike

[DandyDon]

Looks like she's going to rain on my arrival parade.
Good luck everyone!
When do you hope to arrive? Not today or tomorrow I hope.

Continental Air now allowing free changes to travel planned today or tomorrow.

By Sunday, according to Buoyweather.com - winds will be back down and out of the south so I suspect we'll lose water activities through Friday for sure and possibly Saturday - but by Sunday everything should be back on schedule if the current projectory holds true :)
If it does veer east, divers already there might consider day trips to the peninsula for cenotes & ruin tours, but rain & flooding are a risk if it goes inland. I'd hate to drive that construction area between Coba and Valladolid in the rain, and drainage for that area would be questionable. Dr.Masters talks about a risk of a foot of rain (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1653) but certainly no certainty.

Is it expected to be a direct hit or pass close by?
It depends on whom you ask and when. :D

From looking at the latest forecast images, it looks like it will be here overnight, not 11am tomorrow. It is moving fast, so it's not able to grow in strength which is good, and it's veering a little east of us, so we might miss a direct hit alltogether, which means we could be back in the water by Friday (crossing fingers).
It really did pick up speed and the faster movement does indeed prevent acceleration of intensity. She also set a "a modern record for the fastest intensification from the issuance of the first advisory to hurricane strength."

Rita and Robert are taking Frigate and Libra out as I type. The Albatros is the only boat in the water. Crew is waiting in line to fill up the trucks with gas. I am home taking down all the stuff decorating the terraces and bringing in the furniture. Happy hour is starting very late today!!
With only two gas stations, I bet those lines are bad. Mega will have a big day too.

[CO]

we will be diving PDC on saturday, keeping my fingers crossed...

[CozumelAntonio]

The latest position has it veering slightly east, and the projected path appears to miss Cozumel completely (and giving Cancun a little kiss). It's moving forward fast and could be nearest Cozumel as early as midnight tonight or thereabouts. The NHC is calling it a "small hurricane" and if it continues to move out, we might be back in business as early as Friday. Crossing fingers.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1810W5+gif/144014W_sm.gif

[94GTStang]

We arrive on Saturday morning, so hopefully this will not be a big problem for us. Doesn't look like it though. :fingerscrossed:

Hope everyone on the island holds up! See you all in a few days!:cool2:

[CozumelAntonio]

With only two gas stations, I bet those lines are bad. Mega will have a big day too.

3 Gas stations now, and the lines are bad at all 3, at least an hour or more. Island is in full-throttle panic mode, people boarding up, supermarkets were empty at 7am, but now are full, still have 2 cruise ships in port.

I think we're in for a near miss, and being a smaller storm, we should come through it OK...

:mooner: @ Paula

[DandyDon]

2 cruise ships in port: A few thousand pop people are going to be ill tomorrow.

[Hank49]

If this turns east and back into the Caribbean...??? It could do a Mitch? Or a Keith?

[94GTStang]

2 cruise ships in port: A few thousand pop people are going to be ill tomorrow.
Then the pod people will go back home complaining how dead Cozumel was and how they never would go back

[DandyDon]

If this turns east and back into the Caribbean...??? It could do a Mitch? Or a Keith?
Well, based on history of similar storms... :dontknow:

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201018_climo.gif

[94GTStang]

Well, based on history of similar storms... :dontknow:

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201018_climo.gif
Looks like the funky spaghetti monster strikes again! That map is impossible to read lol

[DandyDon]

Looks like the funky spaghetti monster strikes again! That map is impossible to read lol
Better...? :D


http://i54.tinypic.com/2yvnomd.jpg

[judydivescoz]

3 Gas stations now, and the lines are bad at all 3, at least an hour or more. Island is in full-throttle panic mode, people boarding up, supermarkets were empty at 7am, but now are full, still have 2 cruise ships in port.

I think we're in for a near miss, and being a smaller storm, we should come through it OK...

:mooner: @ Paula

Just got back from Mega, no long lines, the bakery is not baking much stuff so slelction is a bit sparce. I got eerything we neded!!

[94GTStang]

Better...? :D
:rofl3:

Oh so much better!

[Prop Joe]

Hunter Aircraft just reported in. Cat 2 now. 100 mph winds. Lower pressure. We were supposed to be arriving at 11:00 am tomorrow. Looking at coming a week later...
Latest:
Hurricane Advisories National Hurricane Center (http://stormcarib.com/adv3.htm)

[Fin59]

Rita and Robert are taking Frigate and Libra out as I type. The Albatros is the only boat in the water. Crew is waiting in line to fill up the trucks with gas. I am home taking down all the stuff decorating the terraces and bringing in the furniture. Happy hour is starting very late today!!


Make sure you stock up in case they cut off the booze. Stay safe!

[judydivescoz]

Reports are Cat 2 right now. Hurrcane shutters are up, covering the other windows. Everythig off the terraces. Almost finished with prep. Happy hour starts soon!

[Qnape]

Watching and wishing for a fast pass by Paula; best wishes for everyone on the island to stay safe! We will be coming in February and trust that by then this storm will be a forgotten inconvenience, and nothing more.

[Travler108]

Was supposed to arrive tomorrow on continental but cancelled...I'm bummed! Hope all goes well on the island!

[ddeborahdelamar]

Dry law takes effect at 4pm. You have 10 minutes left to stock up!!

[DandyDon]

Good news! Newest computer guesses put her veering east more, further away from any Yucatan experience. :thumb:

One program sends her back to Bay Islands. We'll see.

[ggunn]

With only two gas stations, I bet those lines are bad. There are at least three. There's the one in town, the one out east on the cross island road, and the one down just north of the Caleta. I'm only a little ways into the thread; someone else probably already said that.

[CozumelAntonio]

Here's the latest on hurricane Paula.

Signed,

The Big Bad Wolf

[94GTStang]

:rofl3:

[DandyDon]

There are at least three. There's the one in town, the one out east on the cross island road, and the one down just north of the Caleta. I'm only a little ways into the thread; someone else probably already said that.
Yeah. I never rent cars there and only remembered two on the Can-Do map.

3 Gas stations now, and the lines are bad at all 3, at least an hour or more. Island is in full-throttle panic mode, people boarding up, supermarkets were empty at 7am, but now are full, still have 2 cruise ships in port.

I think we're in for a near miss, and being a smaller storm, we should come through it OK...
Well a few hours ago, all of the computer guesses sent her into Cuba except the purple one that sent it back to the Bay of Honduras, but now look at that red one that wants to spin it around for another shot at Coz. Must be some odd steering currents in play. Hope the night passes with minimum damages and she moves on away quickly.

[BTravlin]

Here's the latest on hurricane Paula.

Signed,

The Big Bad Wolf

:rofl3: Well done, Antonio, I mean Mr. Big Bad Wolf.

[lucidblue]

Stay safe Cozumel. You're in my prayers! Hoping it's just an inconvenient day and nothing more.

[DandyDon]

The Continental IAH-CZM flight is canceled today, but the IAH-CUN first flight is listed as late, next two on time for now. I don't know if the ferries are back in service yet but shouldn't take long from current reports...