Invest 99 - now Tropical Storm Richard - forms in the Caribbean

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DandyDon

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Last night all of the computer guesses seemed to send it across Costa Rica into the Pacific, but today several suggest a Caribbean life...

Auto updating pic

at201099_model.gif


 
Still not organized but drifting north...

at_sst.gif
 
Last I checked you're purple, not green.:wink:

And I'm blue.



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Hope this one gives you a break too, Hank. Belize has had some bad storms this late in the season. The computer guesses are not in very much agreement but at least none send that way at the moment. I'm guessing the same factors that kept us guessing on the last one are still in play to an extent...??

One good point here is my posts are just heads-up notices and the full story is available at Tropical Weather : Weather Underground altho some prefer Crown Weather I suppose.

Dr.Masters thinks it may break up inland soon...
Caribbean disturbance 99L
Heavy thunderstorm activity has increased over the past day over the southwestern Caribbean off the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras in association with a tropical disturbance (Invest 99L). Recent satellite imagery does show this disturbance has some rotation, and wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, which is low enough to allow some slow development. However, the disturbance is headed west-northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and most of the computer models predict the storm will move over Nicaragua on Tuesday, which would not give 99L enough time over water to develop into a tropical depression. NHC is giving 99L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The storm will bring very heavy rains of 3 - 6" to northern Honduras and northeast Nicaragua over the next two days.
 
Western Atlantic - Visible Loop (Flash) - Satellite Services Division/Office of Satellite Data Processing and Distribution

Don, this is the one I watch. I check underground to look at projected paths, which are all over the place a lot of times. But their storm location maps are about 6-8 hours behind the noaa one.
Love Radio here in Belize used the underground maps to get their broadcast information. They were broadcasting that Matthew was on the border of Nicaragua and Honduras when the center of the storm had already passed Punta Gorda, Belize.
Right now, we have beautiful weather. Wish I was out on the water.
 
The Underground maps are either too far or too close to make sense but looks like a couple of guesses send it your way. You link seems to show it sending moisture into Cuba?
 
Now known as TD 19 and tracking toward Bay Islands & Belize...

at201019_5day.gif
 
i'm going to predict a cat1+ at the mexico-belize border this weekend, just because i don't have anything better to do tonight...
 
Looks like you're right, arriving Sunday night. Guess Richard-wannabe slowed his movement some.
 
I hate it when they just sit there. Plus, it'll ruin the weekend if it even comes close.
 

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