Tomas aims for Windward Islands & Caribbean

[DandyDon]

Now expected to build power as he heads across the playground. From: Tropical Storm: Tracking Map : Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201021.html)


maps should auto update

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201021_5day.gif

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at201021_model.gif

[lamont]

gack

that storm looks like its going to ruin someone's day...

its already a large storm with a fair degree of circulation...

and haiti definitely doesn't need a storm that large hitting it while they're still trying to rebuild after the quake...

[DandyDon]

and haiti definitely doesn't need a storm that large hitting it while they're still trying to rebuild after the quake...
Have you read about the cholera outbreak this week? Flooding rains could actually help wash that to sea as it's been tracked to a specific creek. The Good, the Bad, the Ugly. Too early to know there of course.

Rainy in the Lesser As this weekend anyway, with a lot of potential to follow.

[lamont]

Have you read about the cholera outbreak this week? Flooding rains could actually help wash that to sea as it's been tracked to a specific creek. The Good, the Bad, the Ugly. Too early to know there of course.

Rainy in the Lesser As this weekend anyway, with a lot of potential to follow.

Yeah, a little rain from the bands might help, but it could be cat 3 or bigger heading to Haiti and the Cholera might be better...

Tomas already looks like a hurricane on the satellite imagery, only without an eyewall yet...

[DandyDon]

Only two names left for North Atlantic storms this year. Then what...?

[DandyDon]

If I was on Jamaica, I think I'd be confirming escape reservations for Wednesday...


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT21/refresh/AL2110W5_NL_sm2+gif/220015W5_NL_sm.gif


Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities - 120 Hours


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT21/refresh/AL2110_PROB34_F120_sm2+gif/220015.gif

[HowardE]

I'm in the Dom Rep. I think the mountains will keep us safe from the wind. I expect to see a lot of rain for a few days.

[DandyDon]

Damn! All the models show it turning north now. Just a question of where exactly. Looks really bad for Haiti, then on to the northern islands.

[HowardE]

I just hope it moves out of here quickly. We have a 2 week trip (at sea) scheduled to start on the 8th of Nov.

[lamont]

I'm in the Dom Rep. I think the mountains will keep us safe from the wind. I expect to see a lot of rain for a few days.

Keep in mind that a couple of the models do zig it right over the Dom Rep...

If you're North side you wouldn't get the winds as it gets busted up going over the island, but typically the worst damage and injury comes from flooding, and you could certainly get that...

[DandyDon]

It should be long gone well before the 8th.

Keep in mind that a couple of the models do zig it right over the Dom Rep...

If you're North side you wouldn't get the winds as it gets busted up going over the island, but typically the worst damage and injury comes from flooding, and you could certainly get that...
I see two going over Haiti at the moment, not DR, but one suggesting going between DR and Puerto Rico. If northern cyclones spin counter clockwise, that would blow right on DR would it not?


http://www.projecthaitiheart.org/Hispaniola%20jimani%20fonds%20parisiens%20map%202. jpg

[HowardE]

Keep in mind that a couple of the models do zig it right over the Dom Rep...

If you're North side you wouldn't get the winds as it gets busted up going over the island, but typically the worst damage and injury comes from flooding, and you could certainly get that...

My apartment is pretty sturdy, and only leaks a little bit when it rains really hard. We're prepared for flooding, and used to not having electricity. I think we'll be fine here in Samana. I wouldn't want to be on the south coast though.


I see two going over Haiti at the moment, not DR, but one suggesting going between DR and Puerto Rico. If northern cyclones spin counter clockwise, that would blow right on DR would it not?


The "right" side of the storm (to the right of the eye wall) is usually where the worst winds are.

As it stands at this moment... it's been downgraded to a Cat 1 hurricane. So - who knows what it will do?

[HowardE]

I like the 5pm forecast. Looking better for me :)

[lamont]

I like the 5pm forecast. Looking better for me :)

Yeah, models seem to be settling down and shifting a bit to the west. Looks very bad for areas of Haiti west of Port-au-Prince on the south side right now.

Probably better off in the larger scheme of things if it zigs even more to the west and Cuba absorbs the brunt of it...

[DandyDon]

Forecast for power has dropped some too, least down to Cat-1 on landing. Wasn't it forecast to make 3 at one time? Still a lot of wind and rain for a devastated & poor country.

[lamont]

Forecast for power has dropped some too, least down to Cat-1 on landing. Wasn't it forecast to make 3 at one time? Still a lot of wind and rain for a devastated & poor country.

Yeah, seems to be predicting a cat-2 at landfall.

Still a pretty big storm for its intensity and if it doesn't move north quickly it could dump a lot of rain.

[HowardE]

The Monday 5AM Forecast looks even better for us. However - we have people (like the boss who took a week at home) trying to come here from the U.S. on Thursday and Friday; we'll see how this all plays out.

[DandyDon]

Better news for Haiti at least as it's veered further west, heading for Guantanamo it seems. I guess the DR is getting a lot of rain along with Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba but the winds are not as intense as previously expected.


http://go.hrw.com/atlas/norm_map/cuba.gif

[HowardE]

Today there are moderately calm seas on the north shore, with moderate but wide period swell.

[HowardE]

So far today, we've been having steady mild to moderate rain showers and gusty but not too strong winds. Not a day to go out on the water.

[jan livengood]

Going to Little Cayman over Thanksgiving. Wondering what will diving be like there.

[DandyDon]

Going to Little Cayman over Thanksgiving. Wondering what will diving be like there.
The Caymans are west of Jamaica so I doubt that they got much out of Tomas, and even if the water stirred some - should be clear by then. Hope your home airport has good weather for travel dates and you have a good trip. :pilot:

[iHeartScuba.com]

First the quake, now Thomas... Haiti can't catch a break.