Swell Model

I've been checking the swell model (http://cdip.ucsd.edu/models/socal_now.shtml) daily for awhile, and it seems like the latest shows 0-1 feet all along the SoCal coast today.

Now, does that really mean that if you go to the beach the largest breakers will be no more than 0-1 feet? Hard to believe.

Not quite. It means the swell, or non-braking waves that are crossing the ocean are 0-1 feet high. That means the following:
1. Crossing the ocean will be smooth and not real bumpy like a 3-4 foot swell would be.
2. The swell is small and the water will settle out as it is not being greatly disturbed by swell. This could lead to good visibility after several days of that. Wednesday visibility as 15 feet or so on a night dive.
3. The surf will be small, but depending upon the topography of the ocean floor at that point, may be 1 foot or less (gently sloping ocean floor where energy is dissipated over a distance) or slightly more than one foot (ocean floor shelves sharply and the depth goes from deep to shallow close to shore causing the waves to "wall up" and flop over). But you are not going to be seeing 5-10 foot waves.

At least that is how I see it. But my advise is to consider this. I say the air is now 75 degrees. What does that mean, nothing until you step outside and feel it. Go to the beach and dive. See for yourself.

Thanks, Melvin.

(Note to self: No boogeyboard this weekend. Leave surfboard in garage. Dive 'til you puke...)

I usually check it to see if swells are picking up. I work in the Dana Point/ Laguna beach area 4 days a week so I can check the surf at various locations throughout the day. But it is a great indicator of approaching swells, so you have a better idea on when to get your tail in the water. Checking it now, you can see a south swell building and it has come up since Wednesday, so Sunday we may see some bigger surf at Crescent, but it should still be do-able when we all get there. If the surf is larger than 3 feet, getting out will be easy, getting back in is the hard part!
P.S.: My avatar picture was taken at Crescent w/0-1' surf and 20' visibility that day.

Wow, that's changed a lot from this morning !!! You can see the swell coming from the south like you said. Cool.

mccabejc:

Wow, that's changed a lot from this morning !!! You can see the swell coming from the south like you said. Cool.

Click to expand...

Also, in the last couple of minutes it has lessened and the north swell is increasing. You can see how the frequency has decreased and the intensity has lessened also. Cool stuff

This is a great tool, but I would use it with a grain of salt (sea salt, of course). It's not 100% accurate.

Arnaud:

This is a great tool, but I would use it with a grain of salt (sea salt, of course). It's not 100% accurate.

Click to expand...

Of course it's not. It is a projected pattern based on small stations around the coast. I don't think you'll find any type of info like this that will be 100% accurate. It's kind of like the "You should have seen the vis' yesterday" stories Conditions change quickly at various areas. I can see the surf on a day to day basis when I am working and I can correlate the two. It's close enough for my diving (beach diving).
But it still gives you an idea of projected swell direction and height. What else have we got? Surfline? Same info, different format.