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insanity defined: repeating the same actions and expecting a different outcome.
we must do something. as I said WAY back in the beginning, drilling would be a start (just as others have said). I also said that drilling was not where we should stop. I also said that we should invest in all other forms of alternative energy. I also pointed out that there is more natural seeping through the ocean floor than from an oil rig drilling. the spills are from transportation accidents, not rigs. there will be transportation even if we don't drill, therefore drilling is not adding to the problem. all these points, I have made and haven't seen anyone (legitimately) challenge them yet because you can't.
someone mentioned the chemicals and such used when drilling but they are in a closed system with tanks. I see no argument that holds water against drilling. all that is being written here is we need to not rely on oil. duh. until there is a viable alternative to oil, we are stuck. environmentalist quacks simply want the oil to be harder to get, higher priced, and ultimately too hard to aquire so we are forced to go green, nevermind the troubles it causes people in the mean time.
as of tonight, 87% of Americans say drill now. is florida the only place to do so? no. drill everywhere so i can keep driving my '68 big block camaro, '23 ford roadster, and dodge pickup with a hemi. and to get everyone else mad... i run over trees with my tractor for fun - treehuggers worst nightmare.
you should all get educated on oil drilling like me. I watch BLACK GOLD on tv everyday so yes, I am an expert!
__________________
Rad
If speed kills, consider me a dead man!
Diving isn't just a part of my life, it IS my life!
Soooo much ocean, so little time...
These 3 members have said "Thank you." to RadRob for this useful post:
It's the futures market, a bunch of rich people are betting that you are willing to buy any amount for any price. So far they are correct. Investors purchase huge lots of oil well in advance of production, betting on what the price will be.These lots are futures and can be traded among investors. You only have to put down cash of 6-7%; if you are wrong about the price you will lose big. You buy futures in things, like crops, that take a known period of time to produce and can be lost. In oil, supply is known in advance and fairly steady: whatever Opec said they will produce, they will. (and we will beg for more). Demand, I believe, is always 100%; that is, people will buy as much as there is, and more.
So right now, people are frantically trading around barrels of oil that will be produced in say, September, and maybe someone thinks they can get 200 dollars a barrel. Hope not.
This is a popular misconception that betrays popular ignorance of how futures work. Don't feel too bad. Apparently the Congress and their expert hedge fund manager don't have a clue either. While I am certainly not rich, I am currently speculating in the futures market--on the short side.
To the extent that "paper" demand may develop by futures speculation, "paper" supply may also develop. If there are no speculators on the sell side we would see evidence of that in a steep contango as we go further back in expiration dates. We had a slight contango (future prices higher than spot, increasing with time) the last time I checked, but for most of the rally we have actually had backwardation (spot price higher than future prices, decreasing with time), which indicates a current commodity shortage.
We would also expect to see an increase in inventories, which we have not. (Assuming, as you said, that supply is unchanged. Producers could curtail supply, effectively "inventorying" crude in the ground.)
This member has said "Thank you." to vladimir for this useful post:
Domestic crude production in the US in 1984 was 9 million barrels per day! Today we are at just under 5 million barrels a day! Do the math, we have grown in the same time and usage has gone up! So where does it come from? 50% of our imports come from Canada and 40% from Venezuela, and the balance from Africa/middle east! Huge deposits have been found of the west coast of Africa and south America. We have more know oil reserves now than anytime in history! An oil executive friend of mine tells me his company knows where 1.3 Trillion barrels of oil are located! We drill or others will, we need to do all things to help the economy and keep the wheels of commerce moving! Period! We can still drill for Geo-Thermal, Wind, Solar, Hydro, Tidal, and yes number one NUCLEAR Power! So we are in fact depend on oil, but we can stretch it out for five hundred years! People in the late 1800's never even thought of the things we have today and progress will do the same for the next hundred years! We just have to understand nothing ever stays the same, the universe is in a state of constant change and the stars are our future!
Go forth and multiply on the earth and the heavens!
Drill, Drill, and Drill! Just the thought of it will start to bring down prices!
No offense to people who live in the other Gulf Coast states, but I would rather not have Florida's coastline look like that of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi or Alabama.
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I took a little trip to Pensacola, basically on the Gulf I believe, and I have never, anywhere, seen beaches so clean and white as there. Absolutely beautiful. And I have been to a lot of beaches.
The risk is vastly overblown. As it is in Alaska and elsewhere.
This is a popular misconception that betrays popular ignorance of how futures work. Don't feel too bad. Apparently the Congress and their expert hedge fund manager don't have a clue either. While I am certainly not rich, I am currently speculating in the futures market--on the short side.
To the extent that "paper" demand may develop by futures speculation, "paper" supply may also develop. If there are no speculators on the sell side we would see evidence of that in a steep contango as we go further back in expiration dates. We had a slight contango (future prices higher than spot, increasing with time) the last time I checked, but for most of the rally we have actually had backwardation (spot price higher than future prices, decreasing with time), which indicates a current commodity shortage.
We would also expect to see an increase in inventories, which we have not. (Assuming, as you said, that supply is unchanged. Producers could curtail supply, effectively "inventorying" crude in the ground.)
Wanna buy some shares in AOL? Lemmings will drop. Gravity wins.
Wanna buy some shares in AOL? Lemmings will drop. Gravity wins.
This is a little cryptic, but I guess you're equating today's oil price with the Nasdaq bubble 8 years ago. I hope you are correct because, as I mentioned earlier, I am short oil. But not because I see a bubble. I am hoping to see some "demand destruction" as high prices filter through the market, especially as China, Indonesia, and hopefully India and Venezuela scale back or eradicate subsidies. And I am stopped out to the upside.
High prices, in and of themselves, don't mean a bubble. At its peak, the Nasdaq's P/E ratio was over 200 vs a historical P/E of (guessing) ~30--fundamental evidence of ridiculous prices. What evidence do you have of oil prices being in a bubble?
Does gravity always win? Because I am long the S&P 500, and I'd hate to see it return to 1993 levels, where I started buying it.
I took a little trip to Pensacola, basically on the Gulf I believe, and I have never, anywhere, seen beaches so clean and white as there. Absolutely beautiful. And I have been to a lot of beaches.
The risk is vastly overblown. As it is in Alaska and elsewhere.
Have you ever heard of walking, riding a bike, skating.
When the well runs dry, you will. Better start learning how to do those things.
If I were you the next time you are in an airport in Louisiana take a few minutes to see the beaches.
In case you have not realized it, airplanes use high octane gas which comes from oil.
Oh, just in case you do not know.... there are no gas stations at 30,000 ft.
Have you ever heard of walking, riding a bike, skating.
When the well runs dry, you will. Better start learning how to do those things.
If I were you the next time you are in an airport in Louisiana take a few minutes to see the beaches.
In case you have not realized it, airplanes use high octane gas which comes from oil.
Oh, just in case you do not know.... there are no gas stations at 30,000 ft.
I assume you went to computer tec school to figure all that out?, how many years?
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