Allow Speculation?-Split from Catalina Diver died today

[Cave Diver]

Moderator's Comments:

Most of the off topic discussion about whether or not speculation should be allowed in the accident forum has been moved here. Keep the discussion civil!

[wedivebc]

Originally Posted by Ken Kurtis

Could I respectfully request we stop the speculation?

Ken, I don't know if you're new here or what but I'll tell you this, nature abhors a vacuum. In the absence of facts speculation will abound on any internet forum. Is there really anything wrong with this? Not really since it often provokes interesting discussions and insights into accidents and dive safety. Sometimes it gets dirty, sometimes crazy but often pearls of wisdom are found in every online discussion. If you develop a way to ensure only truly reliable people post only verified facts please let us know. Anyone who has spent more than 5 minutes on an online forum knows everything must be taken with a grain of salt.

[wedivebc]

Originally Posted by drbill

Ken new here? Hardly. Ken is an expert witness with decades of experience in these matters.

Sorry, Ken, Bill etc. Didn't mean to offend anyone I was just surprised that someone would expect people on this forum to stop speculating.

[Leejnd]

I want to thank everyone for offering their knowledge of this incident, and for their discussion of the potential issues involved. I learned a few things, and was reminded of a few more that I should never have forgotten.

Whenever a diver dies it's shocking to us all...but even more so for those of us in the home territory. I did my AOW deep dive at the Catalina dive park myself, and it's just horrifying to hear that someone actually died doing something that I did, in the exact same location. That brings diver death a little too close to home. It's hard to say to yourself "oh that couldn't happen to me" when it happened to someone doing something you've done, where you've done it, in the same conditions and in similar circumstances.

I also want to make just a couple of of observations about this thread:

1. While I completely understand Ken's irritation at all the speculation, it really is unavoidable in these threads. Show me one accident thread where it didn't happen, and I might believe that a thread like this can even exist without it. Can't find one? Yeah, that's the point. We all want to know what happened NOW, and we really can't help ourselves from dissecting the incident and tossing out our ideas of what might have happened. I know this seems thoughtless and careless, and it must be extremely painful for family/friends of the involved to read later, but IMO, family/friends should probably avoid these threads altogether, and stick with the condolence threads. I'm not saying that to be heartless...I'm actually saying it to be compassionate. In the absence of info, people are going to speculate, and some of it would probably be very hard for loved ones to read.

And as others have pointed out, there is value in the speculation, if only to inspire such helpful discussions as have already been inspired by this thread.

2. One my pet peeves on Scubaboard (and all message boards, for that matter) are people who post without reading the whole thread. Yeah, it's a pain to read it all...but it's just plain selfish to come in at the end and post a question and expect someone to summarize 10 pages of posts that you are too lazy to read. Wanna participate in a discussion? Read the whole thread. I did.

[Ken Kurtis]

I'll start out by saying this is not intended to read as a slam of Leejnd. That being said . . .

Originally Posted by Leejnd

While I completely understand Ken's irritation at all the speculation,

I'm not sure if "irritation" is the right word but it's close. Some combination of frustration, irritation, mortification, and just a general bewilderment as to why people seem to need to guess or make stuff up to participate in the dicussion.

For instance, someone in this thread said they heard it was a Basic OW dive. Someone else added in that if that's the case, they shouldn't be going to 100'. Then someone chimed in about how it was a standards violation. None of that has any basis in fact or relates to the actual accident.

And the problem with all the specualtion is that it then obscures whatever the real issues are because now there's so much "noise" out there.

it really is unavoidable in these threads.

I'm sorry, but that's absolute crap. It's totally avoidable. All it takes is a little self-control. Post what you know. Comment on areas where you have experience or knowledge. Ask questions about the areas in which you're unsure so as to elicit some good info from others. And if you truly MUST speculate, label it as such. "Is it possible that . . ." reads a lot differently than "I heard that . . ." Clearly label as guesses/speculation things of which you are not 100% certain.

Show me one accident thread where it didn't happen, and I might believe that a thread like this can even exist without it. Can't find one? Yeah, that's the point.

Which proves what? Bad behavior justifies more bad behavior? If everyone else is doing it, we might as well do it too? No sense in cleaning up our act until everyone else cleans up their act?

We all want to know what happened NOW, and we really can't help ourselves from dissecting the incident and tossing out our ideas of what might have happened.

We really can't help oursevles????? You've GOT to be kidding. To me, this reads like an addict blaming his addicition on the poppy growers. "It's not my fault they keep growing those damned poppies so just give me my heroin and let's be done with this."

I know this seems thoughtless and careless,

More like irresponsible in my book.

I'm not saying don't have the discussion. We should discuss these incidents thoroughly and in the light of day. That's how we, as a diving community, will learn and hopefully avoid repeating mistakes. But let's discuss from a factual basis and when we speculate, let's be clear that we are doing so and that it might not relate to the accident being discussed.

and it must be extremely painful for family/friends of the involved to read later

So here's my stupid question of the day: If you KNOW that reading through these posts by family/friends might cause pain, doesn't that place an even higher obligation of those of us who post to do it sensitively and accurately?

but IMO, family/friends should probably avoid these threads altogether, and stick with the condolence threads.

First of all, that sounds like "blame the victim" mentality. If I'm hearing you correctly, you're essentially asking the family to avoid searching for answers in an area that purports to give such answers because we can't really control ourselves and might say things that are hurtful/wrong?????

How about we keep in the back of our minds that a loved one of the deceased might read what we write and craft our words with that in mind? Doesn't mean you can't still have the discussions, just means you might choose a different tone.

Don't lose sight of the fact that many times, the relatives and loved ones are NOT divers. They don't understand what happened or why and are looking for answers and some closure for a traumatic event. They may come here seeking some of those answers. And while the information we provide may sometimes be painful (especially if it points to diver error) is it too much to ask for us to do it sensitively?

In the absence of info, people are going to speculate . . .

We're not talking about situations where it's been a week without info. The speculation starts within hours of the accident happening. Patience is virtue. Even in this thread, read some of the early posts and then read some of the later posts, and see if you don't have two different perspectives on what may have happened.

And as others have pointed out, there is value in the speculation, if only to inspire such helpful discussions as have already been inspired by this thread.

Yes, there can be. But it's like when I'm being deposed and the lawyer may say "Hypothetically, let's consider that this happened . . ." But why talk hypothesis when you can talk reality?

All I'm asking is post what you know. If you don't know and want to speculate, post it as "Is it possible that . . ." and go from there.

But to go back to your original take and say this is all inevitable is simply wrong IMHO. And it's something that we as a diving community need to start finding unacceptable. Let's hold oursevles to a higher standard. It won't inhibit the discussion and just might actually raise the level of discourse.

End of rant. (At least for now. )

- Ken

[Leejnd]

Ken...I understand you didn't mean that as a slam on me. However, it sure didn't feel good to read it. That being said, I want to make it clear that I DON'T DISAGREE WITH YOU one bit.

I'm sorry if my writing skills failed me in this instance, and I realize where I went wrong...but my point was not so much that *I* can't help myself...but that HUMANS can't. I actually DO try to help myself...but I too have participated in lots of "hmmm...could it have been this?" discussions. I personally try to be as caring and non-offensive as possible, knowing that the family might very well read the thread.

But the bare fact is that sometimes you can't avoid saying "that was probably caused by diver error". Because so many of these cases ARE caused by diver error. Families don't want to see that...that hurts. But it's not "blaming the victim" - it's simply pointing out what probably true...and something that we can all learn by.

I have to go - I have an appointment - but I will come back later and try to do a better job of explaining what I meant. The key thing I want to get across is that I was simply trying to state that it IS inevitable. I'm not saying it's RIGHT - just that it's in our best interest to know that it will more than likely happen in any of these threads. And I wasn't being heartless to the family/friends...I'm just saying that if they don't want to read those kinds of comments, it's best not to read the thread at all.

[openmindOW]

Originally Posted by Ken Kurtis

Post what you know. Comment on areas where you have experience or knowledge. Ask questions about the areas in which you're unsure so as to elicit some good info from others. And if you truly MUST speculate, label it as such. "Is it possible that . . ." reads a lot differently than "I heard that . . ." Clearly label as guesses/speculation things of which you are not 100% certain.

Those are good principles, Ken. Thank you for posting them, although it was a bit of a rant.

[DandyDon]

Originally Posted by ItsBruce

2. LeeAnne asks people to read the whole thread before asking a question. I agree. However, I recognize that as one reads the thread one sometimes sees something one feels compelled to address immediately for fear of losing the thought while reading other posts.

Use the M-quote and save the thot on notepad if needed until you are ready - having read the thread, please.

[Leejnd]

Originally Posted by Ken Kurtis

I'll start out by saying this is not intended to read as a slam of Leejnd. That being said . . .

Ken, I know you said your post was not a slam on me. But it was a pretty intense and angry rant in which you dissected my entire post...and I do feel slammed. Well, at the very least I feel my opinion was slammed, and pretty hard. I respect you, Ken - I've met you before, although you probably don't remember it (it was at a dive-related dinner function at the Long Beach aquarium a couple years ago) and in particular I respect your expertise, and what you offer to the local dive community.

But I do feel that the opinion that I posted had (and has) merit, and didn't necessarily deserve the shredding that you gave it. I will attempt to explain why.

The main thing I wanted to get across is that we can rant and rave and wish and cajole all we want, but it won't change basic human behavior. In these threads, people are GOING to speculate, they are GOING to guess, they are GOING to get things wrong and pass on what they heard and attempt to make sense out of what happened. And they are GOING to say things that will be difficult, if not devastating, for loved ones of the lost diver to read.

I never said that *I* was going to do these things...but I probably have at times. I consider myself a caring person, and I don't like to hurt or upset anyone...but I also believe that there are things to learn from the mistakes of lost divers, and I believe we need to bring these to light. I've read and participated in enough threads here to know that almost everyone does at least some of that, at least some of the time. Some are more gentle about it, but others can be quite stark in their comments. I know...I recently posted about a near-miss of my own, and I felt rather attacked for the choices I made (in some respects, rightfully so).

So, be angry if you want, and rant and rave and cajole us to NOT do it, and go right ahead and think that I'm a horrible person and that my opinion is "absolute crap". But I'm really not, and it's really not..and these threads are going to continue to be just like this one.

That's probably 'nuff said, but you went to all the trouble to dissect my post...so please indulge me while I do a little of that myself, on yours. I believe I have a few valid points to make.

Which proves what? Bad behavior justifies more bad behavior? If everyone else is doing it, we might as well do it too? No sense in cleaning up our act until everyone else cleans up their act?

No, and I wasn't saying that, and don't really appreciate your suggesting that I was. My point is that this is how these threads go. Like it or not, it's a fact. You can get angry at it, and attack me for saying so openly, but it's not going to change. And I don't even necessarily agree that it's "bad behavior". What it is, is a bunch of divers trying to make sense of a tragedy, and figure out how NOT to let it happen to us, or even better, find a way to believe that it COULDN'T happen to us.

We really can't help oursevles????? You've GOT to be kidding. To me, this reads like an addict blaming his addicition on the poppy growers. "It's not my fault they keep growing those damned poppies so just give me my heroin and let's be done with this."

Like I hope I have explained, I was using "we" collectively - meaning we as "humans", we as "divers". I am not abdicating responsibility for bad behavior. I'm saying that this is what you are going to see in this forum. Don't like it? Don't read here. (And I don't mean "YOU" Ken...I mean you in the collective sense...people in general.)

More like irresponsible in my book.

I'm not saying don't have the discussion. We should discuss these incidents thoroughly and in the light of day. That's how we, as a diving community, will learn and hopefully avoid repeating mistakes. But let's discuss from a factual basis and when we speculate, let's be clear that we are doing so and that it might not relate to the accident being discussed.

I disagree that speculative discussions are irresponsible. Oftentimes it's the speculation that turns out to be NOT accurate that leads to some of the best lessons. Just in this thread alone, people have speculated about a number of things that have led to valuable opportunities for learning. They may be painful for family/friends to read, but they have value.

It was speculation in another accident thread, about a diver fatality in San Diego, that might just have prevented me from from bonking a diver in the head with a weight belt two weeks ago in the Galapagos. People were wondering why the diver hadn't ditched his weight belt. Someone speculated that maybe he was concerned about dropping it on another diver's head. This concept was not something that I'd ever thought before...and when I found myself in a situation where I was about to ditch my weights, and there were divers right below me, I thought twice about it and went for an alternate solution to my problem...which I found, without having to ditch my weights. If I hadn't JUST read that thread, I can guarantee you there would be a weight belt sitting on the bottom of the Gordon Rocks volcanic caldera...and it might just have taken another diver with it. Then again, it might not have. Pure speculation.

So here's my stupid question of the day: If you KNOW that reading through these posts by family/friends might cause pain, doesn't that place an even higher obligation of those of us who post to do it sensitively and accurately?

Again, I fully agree that posters to these threads should be sensitive to family/friends. My SOLE point was that we can't control the behavior of others...and some of the posts are NOT going to be very sensitive or considerate. And...some of what they say in those posts might still be pertinent and of value to the discussion.

First of all, that sounds like "blame the victim" mentality. If I'm hearing you correctly, you're essentially asking the family to avoid searching for answers in an area that purports to give such answers because we can't really control ourselves and might say things that are hurtful/wrong?????

No, you misunderstood me completely. My suggestion that family/friends avoid these threads is based solely on acceptance of reality, and COMPASSION. It's based on what they will find here. If they can handle reading these kinds of posts, read away. But I personally would advise them to not read them, because they are likely going to upsetting. Fair? No. Reality? Yes.

How about we keep in the back of our minds that a loved one of the deceased might read what we write and craft our words with that in mind? Doesn't mean you can't still have the discussions, just means you might choose a different tone.

I agree wholeheartedly. I always do try to keep that in mind.

Don't lose sight of the fact that many times, the relatives and loved ones are NOT divers. They don't understand what happened or why and are looking for answers and some closure for a traumatic event. They may come here seeking some of those answers. And while the information we provide may sometimes be painful (especially if it points to diver error) is it too much to ask for us to do it sensitively?

No, it's not too much to ask. Will we always get it? No. Not everyone is a writer. Not everyone is skilled at conveying information in the tone they want. Message boards are notorious for being hotbeds of misstated points and misimplied emotions. I happen to be a writer, and I think I'm pretty good at getting my points across...but clearly even *I* can't always do it right. Just look at how much you misread in my own post. What about people who love to dive, but are not particularly strong with the English language?

We're not talking about situations where it's been a week without info. The speculation starts within hours of the accident happening. Patience is virtue. Even in this thread, read some of the early posts and then read some of the later posts, and see if you don't have two different perspectives on what may have happened.

And that's how these threads go. It's human nature. Like I said above: fair? No. Reality? Yes. Human nature.

But it's like when I'm being deposed and the lawyer may say "Hypothetically, let's consider that this happened . . ." But why talk hypothesis when you can talk reality?

Because people are shocked, saddened, and SCARED. They are scared that this might happen to them. So they are looking for answers. And they don't want to wait...they want to talk about it now. Fair? no. Reality? Yes.

All I'm asking is post what you know. If you don't know and want to speculate, post it as "Is it possible that . . ." and go from there.

And some people do post like that. Others don't. Do we really want to burden our moderators to nitpick the compassionate-writing skills in these threads? Not gonna happen.

But to go back to your original take and say this is all inevitable is simply wrong IMHO.

Show me ONE ACCIDENT THREAD in which it doesn't happen. Just one. Still think it's not inevitable?

And it's something that we as a diving community need to start finding unacceptable. Let's hold oursevles to a higher standard. It won't inhibit the discussion and just might actually raise the level of discourse.

I'm not excusing insensitive posting in these threads. Just trying to help you to see that it is going to happen, wrong or not. You can rant all you want about it...and that might help. Maybe a few less-sensitive divers will read your rant and think twice before they post next time in an accident thread. But then you've got those 64,000 other members who never saw your rant...and want to talk about what happened NOW.

[Codyjp]

Yet another thread hijacked and destroyed by a few local divers who insist on Monday morning quarterbacking the dive and seem to know or assume they know exactly what happened.

Speculation is incredibly useless and a complete waste of time. Please sit back and let the investigation run its course.