You need enough lift to be able to float your rig at the surface without you in it, and to be able to compensate for the max change in buoyancy of your exposure suit.
Your rig will be about -38 with full bottles. (Full tanks are about -20, bands and manifold are about -5, dual regs are ~-5, SS plate and harness will be about -6, and a can light will be about -2)
You will want to start the dive negative by at least the weight of your back gas, ~16 lbs. This means you will have to use at least 16 lbs of the capacity of your wing just to stay at the surface at the start of the dive.
If you were to suffer a total failure of your drysuit, you could in theory loose all the buoyancy of the suit, unlikely, but you could not loose more.
If we assume you are +25 lbs in your suit with minimum gas in the suit then you would need 16 (weight of your gas) + 25 = 41 lbs.
Your rig provides about 22 lbs of ballast with empty bottles. If your suit is really +25 you will need a couple more lbs of ballast.
If your suit is no more than about +25 a 42 lbs wing would be the minimum I'd recommend. I'd suggest you determine how buoyant you are in just your undies and suit with minimum gas.
Tobin