Tropical Weather Alert

Please register or login

Welcome to ScubaBoard, the world's largest scuba diving community. Registration is not required to read the forums, but we encourage you to join. Joining has its benefits and enables you to participate in the discussions.

Benefits of registering include

  • Ability to post and comment on topics and discussions.
  • A Free photo gallery to share your dive photos with the world.
  • You can make this box go away

Joining is quick and easy. Log in or Register now!

AggieDiver

Contributor
Messages
1,256
Reaction score
871
Location
Houston, Texas
# of dives
200 - 499
For those down in the Caymans now, or who might be heading there soon (like us), the NHC is showing a 50-60% chance of development for a storm over in the Bay of Campeche that is forecast to move east or east northeast over the next few days. The current forecast would bring it over or north of the Cayman Islands by around Friday. Longer range models are also showing a second storm developing near the Yucatan or the Bay Islands and moving north a few days later. Either one or both have the potential to threaten the Cayman Islands. Now might be a very good time to check the status of you trip insurance or buy some before the storms get names.
 
Anything in the Bay of Campeche is highly unlikely to affect Cayman as a tropical system. The land mass of the Yucatan would serve to disrupt the needed circulation. It could still give us rain and maybe some wind of 25 knots, but not the whole rip-off-the-roofs and sink-the-boats kind of stuff. The certainty in the models for this current system in the Bay of Campeche goes all to hell after about 3 days, with differing models all over the place. That indicates poor steering currents and poor prognosis for development.

Late season our focus does turn more towards storms developing in the Western Caribbean. These can develop and be on our doorstep quickly. Historically, we'd tend to look almost due south - near Nicaragua's Corn Islands or Colombia's San Andres - for those most likely to cause damage in Cayman.
 
Ok, so I called my dive op and another down there and they are pulling boats. I was offered some shore diving but it looks pretty bad for the next week. Spoke to my parents this AM and it is sunny but I think that's about it. I was supposed to go down tomorrow.

Booh
 
Hey Aggie,
Yea we head there on Friday. You there yet or will be? Interestingly enough the we get back from Caymans, we load up car and cats and drive/relocate to Houston. Wanna meet in Caymans? I only know 3 people in Houston so knowing more who are divers too is a bonus! :blinking:

Drew, ideas of OPS that MAY be open for shore diving? last time we arrived in October, there was 1 day where we couldnt' find an op open to shore dive with. Surf/surge there didn't appear bad (less than diving in surf/surge in California) so was confused why some surge caused folks to close up shop so to speak. Maybe there are things we aren't considering there?
Shell
 
Hey Aggie,
Yea we head there on Friday. You there yet or will be? Interestingly enough the we get back from Caymans, we load up car and cats and drive/relocate to Houston. Wanna meet in Caymans? I only know 3 people in Houston so knowing more who are divers too is a bonus! :blinking:

Drew, ideas of OPS that MAY be open for shore diving? last time we arrived in October, there was 1 day where we couldnt' find an op open to shore dive with. Surf/surge there didn't appear bad (less than diving in surf/surge in California) so was confused why some surge caused folks to close up shop so to speak. Maybe there are things we aren't considering there?
Shell

You will want to look up the CHUM club (City of Houston Underwater Mariners), a drinking club with a diving problem. They are all about local diving, but someone in the club is always arranging trips to here or there. It's the only dive club I pay dues to, and I don't even live there any more..
 
I am supposed to be flying down on Friday, but I am on the fence now with the way the models are showing development. Drew is correct that normally something in the BoC would be no threat to the Caymans. However, the way the models are showing things, the low in the BoC gets pulled across the Yucatan, then dissolves into a frontal boundary. A day or so later, the remnants of that boundary are shown developing exactly where Drew mentioned...down around the Bay Islands of Honduras and moving northward towards Cuba and the Caymans rapidly developing into a strong storm. I was in exactly this situation in October 2005, and made the decision to fly into Cozumel with Wilma as a small Cat 1 hurricane predicted to head for Cuba. Instead, Wilma underwent the fastest Cat 1 to Cat 5 development ever seen in the Caribbean and then headed directly for Coz. We got to spend about 48 hours huddled in a hotel bathroom under the right side eyewall of the storm when it pulled up stationary in the Yucatan Channel. I am understandably reluctant to fly into that situation again...

---------- Post added October 22nd, 2014 at 10:18 AM ----------

Here is a link to the GFS model runs...click on the "Loop All" link to see an animation for the next 7-10 days.

Guidance&model=gfs&area=wnatl&cycle=20141022%2006%20UTC&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps=model
 
I wouldn't take this storm lightly. Once it crosses into the Caribbean there's a lot of warm water to rev it up. And this rarely happens. All the storms move SE to NW more or less. I think the meteorologists are scratching their heads right now. Late season storms….If I had a boat in the Caymans, I'd be thinking about where to go right now.
 
Last edited:
I wouldn't take this storm lightly. Once it crossed into the Caribbean there's a lot of warm water to rev it up. And this rarely happens. All the storms move SE to NW more or less. I think the meteorologists are scratching their heads right now. Late season storms….If I had a boat in the Caymans, I'd be thinking about where to go right now.

I have a boat in Key West. Forecast for Monday is for 65 knot winds and 29 foot seas in a 6-10 second wave period. I'm thinking about where to go right now.
 
My main dive op Neptune Divers offered a few shore dives to me. I'm still considering going and adding my surfboard to the luggage. Call them or me (727) 412-3171 im down on Thursday.
 

Back
Top Bottom