Cocos Island this summer... El Nino?

[tenley]

I'm interested in going to Cocos Island this summer but heard that you should avoid it during an El Nino year. How can I tell if it is an El Nino year? When and where do they make such announcements?

 

[vladimir]

The Climate Prediction Center of the NOAA makes the prediction and announcement on its website.

Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

 

[tenley]

Thank you! So far, so good.

From the site:
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active
Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere spring 2013.

Does anyone know how quickly this can change, or am I safe to book now?

---------- Post added January 15th, 2013 at 01:31 PM ----------

"Most models predict either persistence or a gradual decrease of current Niño-3.4 values, with ENSO-neutral continuing through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2013." From: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

The Wikipedia page also has some good info about what El Nino is, for anyone that is interested.

Thanks again, vladimir.