I'm leaving early tomorrow morning for a week in Cozumel and then a week on the mainland. I've just checked the forcast on Accuweather, Wunderground and Weather.com. All are different. I know that none are ever completed right for their Cozumel forecast, but which has the best record?
Accuweather? Wunderground? Other? Whose forecast is most accurate?
- Thread starter scubawife
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This is late but I watch this everyday:
http://www.cozumelinsider.com/Webcam
Yep...you get to see the weather !
Ron
http://www.cozumelinsider.com/Webcam
Yep...you get to see the weather !
Ron
This is too late for the original poster, but as an oft shoulder/rainy-season diver (dictated as much by when I can take vacation as cost savings), I'm wondering what others look at for booking a trip and later for deciding what to pack.
Myself, I've found the daily and extended forecasts from Weather.com and Wunderground to be generally useless for the tropical shoulder seasons in the Caribbean and Asia, as they'll usually give some generalized forecast the same every day of the month (e.g. "Scattered Thunderstorms, Chance of Rain 40%"). But what I've found to be really useful is looking at the daily records on Wunderground for a month at a time to see what kind of rain pattern it is, based on the daily precipitation, wind patterns, and summary. That way you can see whether the rainy season rain is:
1) a storm front, typically several cloudy/rainy days in a row, otherwise daily record is sunny, including typhoon/hurrican patterns. Often a change in wind direction as well.
2) scattered thunderstorms, typically single days of heavy rain >0.5" spaced far apart, otherwise daily record is sunny (I find these are the patterns that are often poorly predicted as cloudy/thunderstorm every day, with 20-50% chance of rain).
3) seasonal "light daily rain", typically frequent single days of light rain 0.2" or less, otherwise daily record is sunny (usually a buildup of clouds every day around land formations, that may lead to a brief shower in the morning or afternoon).
4) truly bad rainy season, cloudy and rainy more days than not
I find that #2 and #3 are typically great for off-season diving, as 90-100% of my vacation is dry and sunny, and any rain is so short it is usually more cool and refreshing than irritating. #4 I think most of us try to avoid even if it doesn't affect what's underwater, because I tend to catch colds when I'm chilled and damp between dives, even in the tropics. #1 is usually when I consider I'm rolling the dice, as one storm can span a good part of my typical 1-2 week vacation.
Within a week of the trip I check satellite photos for large scale weather patterns indicative of #1 or #4, whereas #2 and #3 are too localized, just to decide whether to pack a fleece or umbrella.
My own two trips to Cozumel, I think it's typically #2 or #3 in December and you can sometimes see those thunderheads tens of miles offshore completely missing the island, but the first trip got a late season storm front and poured the whole time (ironic since all the locals said it hadn't rained at all in October and November).
Meanwhile, I just got back from Indonesia where I just caught the tail end of #3 as I'd hoped, just before it moves into the more heavy daily rain #4. In fact, the resort owner said the shoulder in November was better than the summer dry season, which often gets strong winds that reduce visibility for diving.
Myself, I've found the daily and extended forecasts from Weather.com and Wunderground to be generally useless for the tropical shoulder seasons in the Caribbean and Asia, as they'll usually give some generalized forecast the same every day of the month (e.g. "Scattered Thunderstorms, Chance of Rain 40%"). But what I've found to be really useful is looking at the daily records on Wunderground for a month at a time to see what kind of rain pattern it is, based on the daily precipitation, wind patterns, and summary. That way you can see whether the rainy season rain is:
1) a storm front, typically several cloudy/rainy days in a row, otherwise daily record is sunny, including typhoon/hurrican patterns. Often a change in wind direction as well.
2) scattered thunderstorms, typically single days of heavy rain >0.5" spaced far apart, otherwise daily record is sunny (I find these are the patterns that are often poorly predicted as cloudy/thunderstorm every day, with 20-50% chance of rain).
3) seasonal "light daily rain", typically frequent single days of light rain 0.2" or less, otherwise daily record is sunny (usually a buildup of clouds every day around land formations, that may lead to a brief shower in the morning or afternoon).
4) truly bad rainy season, cloudy and rainy more days than not
I find that #2 and #3 are typically great for off-season diving, as 90-100% of my vacation is dry and sunny, and any rain is so short it is usually more cool and refreshing than irritating. #4 I think most of us try to avoid even if it doesn't affect what's underwater, because I tend to catch colds when I'm chilled and damp between dives, even in the tropics. #1 is usually when I consider I'm rolling the dice, as one storm can span a good part of my typical 1-2 week vacation.
Within a week of the trip I check satellite photos for large scale weather patterns indicative of #1 or #4, whereas #2 and #3 are too localized, just to decide whether to pack a fleece or umbrella.
My own two trips to Cozumel, I think it's typically #2 or #3 in December and you can sometimes see those thunderheads tens of miles offshore completely missing the island, but the first trip got a late season storm front and poured the whole time (ironic since all the locals said it hadn't rained at all in October and November).
Meanwhile, I just got back from Indonesia where I just caught the tail end of #3 as I'd hoped, just before it moves into the more heavy daily rain #4. In fact, the resort owner said the shoulder in November was better than the summer dry season, which often gets strong winds that reduce visibility for diving.
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