TS Dolly

[Christi]

Thank you, thank you, thank you Antonio!!!! This details the point I was trying to make. There are storms we need to worry about...and others we don't. Dolly had none of the problematic characteristics of a storm that we would need to worry about. By watching and following these things on a regular basis (which we all do)...we have a much better understanding and preparedness for them...and don't need to proclaim a state of emergency when there really isn't one...and there was in no way a state of emergency here.

My reply to your post yesterday was not directed towards you...but more based on the local authorities panic over this blob of rain...and for a second when I read your post, I thought you were subscribing to this state of panic...I later realized that you too were trying to relay the realistic perspective on Dolly

When one of my captains called yesterday in a panic to tell me the port was closed for the afternoon dives (which I predicted anyway) because of the "Hurricane" coming TONIGHT - I just had to laugh. I said..."Tranquila hija" (slang expression for those of you who think my grammar/gender is incorrect here) and then proceeded to explain exactly what it was and that I had been following and we just needed to secure the boats, but not take them out of the water...blah, blah, blah. Then I showed the crew the satellite, models, etc. when they came in from the morning trip and told them to relax. Funny thing is, that I had talked to them on Saturday about the Tropical Depression and that we were going to have a few rainy days so I wanted them to wear the rainsuits I bought them...I don't want any of them getting pneumonia

[DandyDon]

Well said Antonio, but still...

If you're gonna cry wolf, you should make sure, don't you think...?

The truth is that any canine can be of potential danger. No, I'm not going to cry Poodle! when I see one, but I do try to respect real threats if they approach. Actually, my toy poodle almost had to spend time in quarantine for biting a kid, but they let me keep him at home since he had current tags.

Poodle, Dachshund, German Shepard, Coyote, Wolf: They all have teeth, some of all carry rabies and in the latter three it can take a good look or even experience to know the difference.

T.Depression, T.Storm, Cat-1 or 2, Cat 3 or 4: Sure it'd be extreme to treat Dolly like Wilma or Emily, but the difference is that a Dolly can sometime become too much like the latter in conditions and timing that surprises experts. In recent years we have seen hurricane season expand; anyone who says it's July thru early October is simply thinking wishfully - but not betting smart. We've seen one go into mainland US then return to sea again, another continue into January, and so on.

I certainly agree that we do not want our discussions to cause undue alarm, much less needlessly ruined vacations or problems for the Ops, hotels, cafes and more we depend on there.

But I will always support free discussions on possibilities here, and I'll try to contribute reasonably. I did finally learn to take more from Tropical Weather : Weather Underground than NHC, but we can't all avail ourselves of your knowledge as quickly as we may like at times and we do want to discourage the other extremes, too. Remember all those who arrived right before Wilma and Emily who wanted to be served as usual? Even I considered sticking Dean out last year and was chastised for the thot of becoming a burden on the locals. Sometimes we do need to talk it out, and this is the place to do so.

[debersole]

We went to sleep with cloudy skies and awakened to cloudy skies. Thankfully, we had no problems at all.

Calm seas, no wind, 100 foot viz -- Coz was great today. We dove Palancar Caves, Delilah, and Paradise. Can't wait for tomorrow.

[Christi]

Originally Posted by debersole

We went to sleep with cloudy skies and awakened to cloudy skies. Thankfully, we had no problems at all.

Calm seas, no wind, 100 foot viz -- Coz was great today. We dove Palancar Caves, Delilah, and Paradise. Can't wait for tomorrow.

Not to rain on your parade (pun intended ...but vis was not 100 feet today anywhere...I'd give it a 60ft to 70ft which still isn't bad A bad vis day in CZM is still better than most places on a good day

[TheUWPhotographer.com]

As a frequent traveler to Cozumel I truly appreciate any weather notices posted here or anywhere else. I just spent $800 on a RT ticket and have convinced 25 of my closest friends to join me at Scuba Club (woo hoo!) in a couple of weeks. I'll be there regardless of weather, but have been in Cozumel many times when there was no diving because the ports were closed due to Nortes, tropical storm, blobs of rain, or whatever. So I'm hoping for the best and am telling my friends to look into trip insurance and make sure it they read the fine print so they know what it covers.

I also have many clients in Cozumel who will be financially affected by every weather or travel threat, whether real or imagined and I understand that their livelihood depends on our tourism dollars. But if my friends come down there, sit around in the rain and wind for a week, then go home, it completely defeats all my efforts in getting them there in the first place. We who are spending our hard earned dollars to come just there want the truth. Too much hype (which I did not see here) might get people asking questions, but too little information can have an equally as devastating effect.

Glad to hear this one blew over. I'm hoping to see a beautiful sunset on the Scuba Club Cozumel webcam!

[pidgiepoo]

We were at Iberostar Coz during hurricane Dean evac too. The hotel sent us by private ferry to their sister hotel Iberostar Maya south of Cancun.Missed not getting to dive, but couldn't believe how wonderful the Maya hotel was. Grandkids were with us and are going with us again this August. The 15 year old is praying for 5 good diving days in Coz and 2 evacuation days to the Maya...LOL. We were on TV here in Ohio when we got off the plane. Wanted to know all about our evac.We told them it was very well organized and everyone in Cozumel deserved a gold star.
So glad the current storm is "passing over". Wouldn't want the damage to the reefs that occurred after Wilma.

[DandyDon]

Originally Posted by TheUWPhotographer.com

As a frequent traveler to Cozumel I truly appreciate any weather notices posted here or anywhere else. I just spent $800 on a RT ticket and have convinced 25 of my closest friends to join me at Scuba Club (woo hoo!) in a couple of weeks. I'll be there regardless of weather, but have been in Cozumel many times when there was no diving because the ports were closed due to Nortes, tropical storm, blobs of rain, or whatever. So I'm hoping for the best and am telling my friends to look into trip insurance and make sure it they read the fine print so they know what it covers.

I also have many clients in Cozumel who will be financially affected by every weather or travel threat, whether real or imagined and I understand that their livelihood depends on our tourism dollars. But if my friends come down there, sit around in the rain and wind for a week, then go home, it completely defeats all my efforts in getting them there in the first place. We who are spending our hard earned dollars to come just there want the truth. Too much hype (which I did not see here) might get people asking questions, but too little information can have an equally as devastating effect.

Glad to hear this one blew over. I'm hoping to see a beautiful sunset on the Scuba Club Cozumel webcam!

I do hope you have a wonderful trip, especially since it's about the same time I'll bet getting back there. Storm discussions are supposed to be in the Storms forum technically http://www.scubaboard.com/forums/storm-watch/, when I have time I try to help post there and did start one on this storm almost a week ago I-94 Aiming at Lesser Antilles. No one seemed very interested, but I updated the maps each day anyway.

But it is common to post additional threads on the affected Geographic forums as well. I didn't start one here as it looked like a pretty small threat, but - it's weather, people talk about it, and it's good to have real knowledge with supporting information, especially away from hom. The maps used by vrykolakas and scubawife were using Image-Location tools so have updated as the storm moved - now showing Hurricane Alerts for Rio Grande Valley area of Texas. I finally learned to save the images and attach them so that my posts still match the pics later.

I don't know that early warnings will help increase the odds that your friends will enjoy their stay, but it is good to have the facts anyway. So many travelers don't check forecasts; I didn't for years myself. Two sites that many of have bookmarked and check often...

• Tropical Weather : Weather Underground and check the Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog on the right side of the page - always a great resource.
• National Hurricane Center

[ggunn]

Originally Posted by TheUWPhotographer.com

But if my friends come down there, sit around in the rain and wind for a week, then go home, it completely defeats all my efforts in getting them there in the first place.

FWIW, that doesn't happen very often at all; most systems, even severe ones, move through pretty quickly. Except in the case of a direct hit by a major storm, things on Cozumel are usually affected by tropical weather systems for a day or two, tops. In nearly 30 years of going to Cozumel, I encountered a week long rain (and there was no wind to speak of in it) exactly once, in 1988 or so.

[ReefHound]

Originally Posted by ggunn

What happened was, from what I have heard, an inconvenience at worst. An overreaction, perhaps, but it is better to err on the side of caution when it comes to hurricanes.

There is the *perception* among many tourists that in the past local officials and vendors have tended to err on the side of money, pooh poohing any threat to safety in order to minimize cancellations. I'm not saying that is the *reality* but a lot of people felt betrayed as a result of Wilma and Emily.

I also find it amusing that some in Coz think they pay more attention or know more about tropical systems than many here on the gulf coast. Florida (and probably Texas) has been hit by far more 'canes than Coz. Tropical storms are not a foreign concept here.

Forecasting is improving but it's still not an exact science. It's so easy to look back in hindsight when nothing happened and say "oh I knew it was no big deal". People have been doing that everywhere since time began. Before Katrina most people ignored evacuation orders and those that stayed to "ride it out" always had a good laugh at the ones who packed up and scurried away, except occasionally when they paid a heavy price for staying.

[sealskin98]

This is an interesting thread.

When I used to work for a municipality we all had to do storm spotter classes from time to time (Firefyter can tell you more about that, but we are not expert meteorologists by any means). Sometimes I was in charge of the EOC (Emergency Operations Center) that was responsible for sounding the sirens during severe weather. The underground place where the EOC is located has no windows; I had to rely on radio traffic from my spotters and radar images for information on the conditions.

People here are terrified of tornados, even though they are not as frequent here as where I grew up (there it wasn’t “if” a tornado was going to happen, it was “when”). And people here want you to come knock on their door and say “It’s 9:45 p.m., a tornado is going to hit one block away at 10:17 p.m.”

If you didn’t sound the sirens and someone got a few shingles blown off the roof (even by just straight line winds) they would call the next day very upset that the sirens weren’t sounded.

If you did sound the sirens places like the hospital would have to move all of the patients out of their rooms, away from windows, etc. Then if no damage happened they would call complaining that we had caused a major problem by sounding the sirens.

Tornados are much more unpredictable than hurricanes, but my point is that any responsibility of declaring an emergency situation is very difficult. It’s the “damed if you do and damed if you don’t” thing.

Just my O2s worth.