Tropical Depression One: Honduras, Belize, Yucatan Peninsula

[DandyDon]

Expecting to upgrade to Tropical Storm Alex by Saturday. This system developed south of Cuba the last couple of days, and some heavy rains are expected. Not anticipated to make hurricane class for the next several days, but if it survives the path across land and emerges in the Gulf intact - who knows...?

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Speculation about what it could mean for the oil spill disaster varies with how the spinning storm may move across the area. It could push the slick south out to sea or north and east into land.

See Wunder Blog : Weather Underground

and excerpting from Weather could push oil spill farther along Florida's beaches - CNN.com

Meteorologist Karen Maginnis says the "preferred scenario" actually would be for it to head to northern Florida. That's because the oil spill has been gradually rotating counterclockwise. If the storm heads to the east of it, it would send the oil farther out to sea. If the storm heads more directly towards the central Gulf and Louisiana, it might push the oil toward Florida.

 

[lamont]

Based on the 2AM EST model predictions today it looks like the furthest any model curves it north is to the Texas-Louisiana border, doesn't look like its a risk to the oil spill now.

Due south of the spill is warm loop current, though, so any disturbance that tracks from the south into the spill has a good chance of rapid intensification and spinning up into a major hurricane. If TD1 changes its mind and heads due north off the yucatan, it could be bad, but that looks low probability for now.

 

[DandyDon]

Now known as TS Alex, first named Atlantic storm of the season, but not even expected to approach the US other than maybe the RGV...

 

[lamont]

The latest computer models again have Alex going anywhere from the Mexican state of Veracruz up to the Texas-Louisiana border.

Models predict a pretty high probability of intensification to a Hurricane.

If Alex heads north it should it will encounter dry air over Texas, wind shear further north, and churning up colder sub-surface water will weaken it, probably preventing intensification to major hurricane even if it spends a large amount of time over warm sea-surface water.

Masters gives it a 10% chance of intensification to a major hurricane, and it looks like a coin toss as to where its going to make landfall. There doesn't appear to be any threat to the BP oil spill.

Wunder Blog : Weather Underground

 

[lamont]

Alex is back to a tropical storm. NOAAs forecast is now to spin Alex up into a cat2 and send it into Mexico, south of the Texas border. The GFS and a few other models favor sending it north into Texas.

 

[lamont]

alex is sucking in dry air from the NW which is preventing intensification even though its over an old loop current eddy and some warm water. it is trying to form an eyewall, but hasn't yet reached cat1 strength. it looks like environmental factors (shear, dry air) are going to prevent intensification past cat1.

looks like alex will be a very large cat1 storm that hits the texas-mexico border. probably more storm surge and flooding than is typical for a cat1, and damage potential of up to US $1bn near brownsville, although it may strike relatively unpopulated coastline in MX and miss causing a lot of that damage (+/- 50 miles will make a lot of difference and hurricane tracks aren't that accurate).

Wunder Blog : Weather Underground

 

[lamont]

first hurricane of the season:

Wunder Blog : Weather Underground

EDIT: looks like the models are curving it more towards MX and away from Texas.

 

[lamont]

Alex is undergoing an Eyewall Replacement Cycle and that is preventing intensification. Models are predicting it will intensify, however, to a Cat2 before landfall in Mexico. Jeff Masters notes:

Alex in historical context
Alex is the first June hurricane since Hurricane Allison of 1995. Allison briefly became a minimal 75 mph hurricane before weakening and hitting the Florida Panhandle as a tropical storm. Alex is the strongest June hurricane since Hurricane Bonnie of 1986, which had 85 mph winds. Bonnie was the first hurricane I flew into as a member of the Hurricane Hunters. Bonnie made landfall along the upper Texas coast, and caused less than $20 million in damage. If Alex strengthens to 90 mph winds, it will be the strongest June hurricane since Hurricane Alma of 1966, which had 125 mph winds as it skirted the Florida Keys. There have been only ten hurricanes in May or June since 1945; only four of these were major Category 3 or higher storms.

Wunder Blog : Weather Underground

I signed up last year for a Cave 2 course in Mexico in September and I don't know if we ever got even rained on. This year is likely to be a lot more active -- unfortunately, for all the tourism-related businesses around the gulf.

They better get the relief well drilled and cap the Macondo well before it takes a direct hit.

 

[DandyDon]

Alex does seem early but June 'canes are always possible. There was a Cape Verde wave a week or two ago that looked troublesome but it broke up. A CV-cane in June would have been a big surprise.

Looks like Alex is expected to hit Mexico harder than Texas, but they have watches as far north as Corpus Christi. Never know for sure.

I'm in Oklahoma with family this week, just watching our typical plains storms, wishing the best of our neighbors to the south and hoping the oil disaster is approaching new solutions.