Igor!

[lamont]

All the models are spinning this up into a hurricane.

Historically based on time of year and formation region, there's a correlation between strength (cat4/5) and how close it gets to land (USVI/BVI/Leeward Islands/Puerto Rico/Florida). If it curves it may fizzle, if it hits land it may be a major hurricane.

Forecast right now suggests a curving path away from most land, but that is extrapolating by eyeball the 5-day prediction centers into a ~10-day prediction. But, a path towards the Leeward Islands is still well within the prediction cone.

And I have no idea who thought this name was a good idea to name a storm...

 

[Blow.Fish]

Let's pray it hits Portugal ;-)

 

[lamont]

Let's pray it hits Portugal ;-)

I'd say that's very unlikely...

Best case is probably curving NE to threaten bermuda...

 

[Blow.Fish]

It's still very early.

 

[Rhone Man]

Not too worried about Igor. I never worry this early unless they are projected to pass south of me. Atlantic hurricanes almost always veer northward.

I don't doubt that the BVI will get hit by a second (and possibly a third?) hurricane this season at some point though. We still have hurricanes named after each member of my family (Lisa, Matthew and Thomas) to come. I am betting one of them clobbers us.

 

[lamont]

Not too worried about Igor. I never worry this early unless they are projected to pass south of me. Atlantic hurricanes almost always veer northward.

latest update moved the monday track location a bit further south...

i don't really trust the tracks, though, until they fully develop into hurricanes, then the predictions seem to get a lot more solid...

 

[Rhone Man]

i don't really trust the tracks, though, until they fully develop into hurricanes, then the predictions seem to get a lot more solid...

I am not sure that the predictions get that much more solid; it is just that once they evolve into hurricanes they are usually much further west so they are closer to the targets everyone cares about.

Two years back in BVI we went to bed with Hurricane Omar heading straight for us and due to hit at 2am. I remember being quite excited because it was full moon, and I thought I might get a striking photograph of the eye wall with the full moon above. But we woke up the next day to discover it had dramatically dog-legged around midnight and clobbered the Frenchies in St Martin instead. They are about as predictable as a 200 mile wide spinning top.

Having said that, Igor will probably hit us now...

 

[Blow.Fish]

 

[lamont]

They are about as predictable as a 200 mile wide spinning top.

Actually that's why I think the hurricanes get better predictions than a TD or TS because they are a spinning top and they make their own local weather so they only get pushed around by the major meteorological features. TD/TS aren't spinning tops and they get pushed around by more minor stuff and tend to zig and zag and its difficult to even tell where their centers are or measure how they've moved.

At the same time I think I recall when Omar wiggled and missed you and it was just one of those weird things...

Having said that, Igor will probably hit us now...

Yes, you've cursed yourself now...

 

[Rhone Man]

At the same time I think I recall when Omar wiggled and missed you and it was just one of those weird things...

Omar actually formed in the Caribbean rather than the eastern Atlantic - those storms are always less predictable for some reason...