Tropical Storm Karl (formerly I-92) forms in the Caribbean

[DandyDon]

I normally wait until a storm is named before posting on it, but this one formed inside the playground and deserves watching...!

Map should auto update for duration...

 

[lamont]

Yeah, that is some crazy dangerous potential track paths.

That's the kind of hurricane formation that led to a lot of the dangerous storms that zip through the gap between Yucatan and Cuba and take out the oil production in the gulf and hit the gulf states hard. Tends to produce major cat4/cat5 hurricanes that hit someone in the Caribbean or gulf states and causes major damage.

Dean, Wilma, Ivan and Gustav all were spawned in this region or entered the region and spun up and did major damage, following similar tracks. Lots of energy to feed hurricanes here, and a whole lot of targets to hit.

 

[lamont]

I-92 is developing quite a lot and GFDL tracks take it over the Yucatan:

 

[DandyDon]

Reckon someone needs to post on the Coz and/or Mexico forum, maybe when it makes TD...?

From Dr. Masters

Intensity forecast for 92L

I can't find any reason to doubt this will be a tropical storm by Sunday or Monday, and potentially a Category 1 or 2 hurricane by Wednesday, if 92L avoids passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. The SHIPS model predicts wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, through the period, and makes 92L a Category 1 hurricane by Monday night. Water temperatures are certainly warm enough to support development. The main detriment to intensification is likely to be dry air, and 92L could wrap in some of the dry air to its northwest at times, slowing down development. The first Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into 92L is scheduled for Sunday afternoon, but there will be a research mission by the National Center for Atmospheric Research G-V jet today that will give us valuable information on 92L's large scale environment and potential for development.

 

[lamont]

Still way out and a lot of uncertainty....

Maybe cross-post when it gets a name, so that searches turn it up in the subject line?

 

[Cave Diver]

Maybe cross-post when it gets a name, so that searches turn it up in the subject line?

If someone will PM me when the storm is named, I'll change the thread title to reflect that.

 

[lamont]

If someone will PM me when the storm is named, I'll change the thread title to reflect that.

Bigger problem with posting in the Coz/Mexico forums right now is that the model tracks go anywhere from Belize to Haiti, and intensity predictions this far out are pretty useless... Don't need to freak out the tourists yet, still way too soon to make travel changes based on the presence of a storm somewhere in the Caribbean that might or might not hit somewhere that people dive...

 

[Peacie]

(Never mind- wrong storm)

 

[Cave Diver]

Bigger problem with posting in the Coz/Mexico forums right now is that the model tracks go anywhere from Belize to Haiti, and intensity predictions this far out are pretty useless... Don't need to freak out the tourists yet, still way too soon to make travel changes based on the presence of a storm somewhere in the Caribbean that might or might not hit somewhere that people dive...

I wasn't suggesting posting it anywhere else. Just that I'd change the title here to include the name of the storm if/when it reaches naming status for easier reference.

 

[lamont]

I wasn't suggesting posting it anywhere else. Just that I'd change the title here to include the name of the storm if/when it reaches naming status for easier reference.

Ah, cool, I'll try to remember to PM you when/if it gets a name...