When do you think virus-related disruptions will end?

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jjmochi

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Location
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As I am rebooking trips, curious when everyone else thinks will be safe to travel again

I have 2 more trips in July and Oct which I'm hopeful but not convinced can go ahead as planned. Wait and see for now

I think rebooking to 2021 is obviously the safe choice but will you try your luck doing anything earlier?

There's also a lot of 50% off deals now

I personally don't think restrictions will be lifted in April or May, June is a big maybe, July more likely, August probably, Sept+ should be ok. I just rebooked something to Christmas week

What do you think?
 
I don't think that it'll be safe to travel before 80% of the world's population has either had the Corona virus, or have been immunized.
In other words: Not this year, and probably not next year.

If the immunization is developed and patented in the USA - NEVER, it'll be several orders of magnitude too expensive for everyone other than the top 5%, and because of this, several hundred million lesser people will die.

Michael
 
We’re hoping our July trip to Bali, Komodo and Alor will go ahead as planned- but it’s only a hope.

Looks like Japan has asked to postpone OL, so not at all sure we will be able to travel in July.

I’m not booking anything till I know more about this situation.
 
If everything goes well (and it is a BIG IF), the situation should come normal during summer. In 2021, of course!
In the worst case, it will take 3-5 years.
 
As I am rebooking trips, curious when everyone else thinks will be safe to travel again

I have 2 more trips in July and Oct which I'm hopeful but not convinced can go ahead as planned. Wait and see for now

I think rebooking to 2021 is obviously the safe choice but will you try your luck doing anything earlier?

There's also a lot of 50% off deals now

I personally don't think restrictions will be lifted in April or May, June is a big maybe, July more likely, August probably, Sept+ should be ok. I just rebooked something to Christmas week

What do you think?

The only correct answer to this is -Nobody really knows.

It's too soon for anyone to have good information about this. Anyone that gives you a time frame is just guessing.
 
As I am rebooking trips, curious when everyone else thinks will be safe to travel again
I personally don't think restrictions will be lifted in April or May, June is a big maybe, July more likely, August probably, Sept+ should be ok. I just rebooked something to Christmas week
What do you think?

I see three scenarios:
1) Best case - people do the right things, and the virus comes under control globally, resulting in a patchwork of travel restrictions and possibilities (lasting 6-36+ months).
2) Likely - we will see a roller-coster wave of shutdowns, isolations, and reversals. Non-essential travel is highly discouraged (lasting 12-36+ months).
3) Worst case - total disruption and breakdown until the vaccine is discovered, tested, and widely distributed throughout the planet (lasting18-36+ months).

The best solution for me will be to dive locally. Today was day one of a 2-week dive trip in Puerto Galera that was cancelled. The upside, is that despite an increase in fishing at some of our dive sites, many dive sites are likely to improve due to the reduction in tourism. Be patient, dive locally, and then in a bit of time, global diving will slowly blossom.

Stay safe. Listen to the experts and trusted leaders for public health advice. Best wishes.
 
During the past three months approximately 10,000 people died because of COVID-19 world wide. During the same three months about 12 million people died for other reasons and about 35 million people were born. Based on figures from overseas, I am hoping that this thing will blow over in a 3 or 4 more months.
 
I think the only people who could give us a realistic projection are epidemiologists with a strong grasp on global medical history, the historical precedents of pandemics and a synopsis of the current response posture on each continent.

I’d like to be able to say “this summer” but I recognize I’m just talking out my a$$.
 
During the past three months approximately 10,000 people died because of COVID-19 world wide. During the same three months about 12 million people died for other reasons and about 35 million people were born. Based on figures from overseas, I am hoping that this thing will blow over in a 3 or 4 more months.

I hope you're right, but I'm not optimistic.
Numbers out of europe, demonstrate that around 5% of those tested to have Corona Virus will die in countries with a social medicine system, how that works without social medicine or the ability to get/pay for treatment hasn't yet been looked into.
If 60% of the population get the virus worldwide (according to some reasonable leaders in europe) that would mean that at least 200 million will die. Survival rates among indigenous peoples, slum dwellers, prisoners and the socially disadvantaged will be much lower.

This virus will kill more people than have died in all wars since 1900 !

Michael
 

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