Statistics are an odd thing. There are people who parachute and exit the aircraft without this equipment (
Travis Pastrana Skydives without a Parachute - YouTube). Statistically speaking, there hasn't been one death (that I can find) that has been attributed to this. Does this mean that it's a safe practice? Despite the statistical results, it doesn't seem to be; at least in my mind. It doesn't pass the test of 'common sense.'
Bloody hell.... that boy has some low hanging cojones!
After much reflection and consideration (brace yourselves) I'm going to concede that Wayne has the high-ground in this discussion, from a certain point of view. (I told you to brace yourselves). Like him, I also have a feeling that we aren't privy to the whole story related to accident stats and I'll explain why. (bear with me here, after years of fighting with him I think I need to explain myself).
I know some attempts have been made to make an honest appraisal of the risk and I do, actually, believe that we have some *reasonably* good evidence that diving is pretty safe when analysed from a "mile high and an inch deep". Compared to other activities (like driving your car to the dive site) it seems on the surface of it, to present what most people would view as an acceptable level of risk. Therefore, it's easy to conclude (as I do) that MOST divers are FAIRLY well prepared for the dives that they are doing. I think even Wayne would have to agree about that, maybe not specifically in the North Atlantic, but big-picture wise, sure.
The disconnect in this whole discussion is that for years we haven't been talking about the same group of people. People like myself, Boulderjohn, Peter Guy and Netdoc often make references to the 80% of divers who manage just fine with the training they get. Wayne, Thal and a few others make frequent references to the 20% and give the 80% less consideration because, frankly, it's not what they're worried about. IN some ways, this whole ongoing debate boils down to the question if you think the cup is 1/2 full or 1/2 empty.
The fact is, it's both.
From the point of view of instructors like myself who have enough of a handle with current standards to deliver a good course, get good results and produce divers who are prepared, aware, competent and enthusiastic.... then the proposition that standards/training/instructors/agencies/divers aren't good enough doesn't make much sense. I'm not one of those instructors who everyone worries (or complains) about. Neither are my students, so I don't worry about standards. It works for me. And it works for people like Peter, John, Pete and many many more as well.
The 20%, however... If that's your focus then you're not worried about the Boulderjohn's or the Peter Guy's, or the Netdoc's of this world. You're worried about students who are trained by instructors who do everything "within standards" but who get lousy results, produce divers who literally cannot dive without 3rd party supervision, who lack awareness, sufficient buoyancy control (remember this point because it's coming back later in this post) or what any of us (including myself, John, Peter, Pete and many others) would consider "adequate" skill level for the dives they're doing.
It's a "negative" stance because it focuses only on the exceptions to the rule, but those exceptions are there in large enough numbers that it is, and should be a concern.
(hope you're still bearing with me).
Since I've also concluded that it "should be" a concern, I have to concede that Wayne has (at least in terms of the debate) a hand full of philosophical "short and curlies" from the people (and I count myself among them) who claim that the 80% is good enough.
Now getting back to stats. What the stats "hide" because of the volume is that certain groups, among which are new/inexperienced divers, are at a MUCH higher risk of accidents than experienced divers, and that *does* tell us something about training. An analysis of those accidents tells us even more. Buddy separation, running out of air and poor buoyancy control are the biggest contributors to the pallet of reasons why accidents happen and/or escalate in severity. Among the big issues are also heart-attacks and things that we can't control but this post is about things that we CAN control.
Looking at those things:
1) Buddy separation. When is this likely to happen? sloppy descents/ascents, failure to divide attention between one's own dive (dive process) and the need to maintain contact and communicate with another person about their status and about yours. Failure to assess when one should speed up or slow down, failure to communicate intended changes in tempo or depth, failure to understand the best strategies for reestablishing contact after it has been lost (ie how to look for your buddy) and it also seems to indicate an inability among some divers to establish a comfort zone independently of having someone else to mirror upon.
*every* *single* *one* of those points is trainable (yes, visualize this with the fist slamming on the table because I DO feel THAT passionately about it) . In other words, losing buddy contact is an absolutely inexcusable reason for an accident to happen. And yet it does. A LOT, evidently, if one looks deeper than "an inch deep" into the statistics, especially with respect to inexperienced divers. This is PURELY and SINGULARLY a training issue and in this case ALSO a standards issues because evidently some instructors (the 20% ones) use this wiggle room to avoid teaching what other instructors (and most divers) would consider to be core skills.
What's the solution? Wayne would suggest slowing down training (spend 50 hours instead of 30) and taking more time for things like comfort zone etc to take hold is the way to go. I agree (site unseen) that he can get results like that but I personally believe that adjusting tempo has value to a point but that "Parkinson's Law" applies to diver instruction too. As such I'm bit more structured about it than just "slowing down". I have actually created a protocol for my OW course to "teach" buddy skills. It's one of the items I call my "big three". Three things that are not in standards but PADI agrees is important to put into focus because it is consistent with the spirit of safe, fun, comfortable, active diving. I'm sure Peter, John, Pete and many others also do things like this so I want to stress that I am not by any means unique or special in this. IN fact (and Lynne-TSandM-will confirm this) I don't feel special at all. Wayne, on his turn would say, "booyah, most instructors aren't even aware of this, let alone care enough about it to create their own protocol". And he would be right, from the "cup is 1/2 empty" perspective. I give him that point and concede some more "short and curlies" because this can and should be addressed.... by instructors... and by agencies. We agree 100% in principle but disagree about how wide spread the practice is.
2) running out of air. I'm not even going to waste your time analysing this. Every competent diver in the world knows that this is an unforgivable reason for an accident to happen. Reading/being aware of your SPG is also IN the standards, so it's not even a standards issue. Every single diver in the world is taught to read the SPG starting on their first ever dive on scuba and it is repeated/reinforced on every single training dive after that. And yet statistics would suggest that it fails to get seated in the "habits pool" of new divers. On the one hand it can be a training issue if too little attention is given to it, but on the other hand, divers have their own responsibility and if they are "lead to water" then some of them will still "refuse to drink".
This is a HUGE issue with respect to accidents but a very difficult one to address adequately through training. The only thing I've ever found that really "presses it on the heart" as the Dutch would say, is to attach consequences to it. For example, a recent OW student of mine had trouble remembering to check her SPG. In the pool sessions I kept telling her how important it was.... but on the first OW dive she forgot again. After each dive I ask students what their pressure is and confront them if they can't tell me without looking. In her case, however, I went a step further, knowing that she was a potential risk. I said, "how long to you want to live?" and then I made her sit out the next dive for being unsafe (as the Dutch would say, "to hit her in the neck with a stick") and repeat the dive again because she wasn't showing adequate awareness of her SPG.
After that her awareness was fine. How many instructors would have taken an OW student to task like that for their own good? My contention? Too few.
3) poor buoyancy control. I won't insult anyone with a long analysis of this either. Buoyancy control is completely trainable. There may be some disagreement about the precise level of refinement required by local conditions in different areas but nobody would suggest that it's optional. So once again, I think "the cup 1/2 empty" crew have the short-and-curlies in the hand. There's no excuse for short changing students on the time needed to truly master buoyancy control and therefore, my contention is that with respect to new divers, this is a training issue. (#2 of my big 3).
There's nothing stopping a competent instructor from teaching buoyancy control to a reasonable bar in the OW course but there is nothing stopping them from avoiding it either. And therefore I think the "cup 1/2 empty" crew score another point in the debate.
All in all, I have to concede. Negative thinking may ignore the fact that most things go just fine but the issues being put on the table by Wayne, among others, cannot be ignored either.
R..