New risk level ?

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I understand that most of the increased threat level is in the southern islands, but that Palawan province is now also on the list. I'm headed to Anilao in early June - any reports of terrorist activity in that region? (I haven't seen anything, but again, always good to hear from additional sources.)
 
Anilao, and surrounding areas (i.e. PG), are unlikely to be affected by the issues in the South.

The real terrorist / insurgent threat in the PI really comes down how much The Central gov't and the military are willing to tolerate such groups and their activity; there is a lot of corruption which enables this 'problem' to go on longer than is really justified.

If the gov't was serious, they'd wipe them out in a matter of weeks - but they're not.
 
If the gov't was serious, they'd wipe them out in a matter of weeks - but they're not.
You cannot be serious!
The problem is much more complex then anyone especially foreigner to comprehend. It has been going on for many many yrs. Enough materials available on line for you to digest.
If you think military actions can solve the problem then you should look closer to your home ie. Aceh Free Movement in Sumatra. Indonesian Gov has to thank "nature' for solving its nation biggest problem otherwise..
Columbia Gov has to make truce with FARC after all these yrs for a very obvious reason!
Did Malaysian Gov solve the Second Malayan Emergency(196801989) by military action alone?
And if you need more convincing, take a look at Burma and I am not going to mention Southern Thailand.
 
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I am serious. Maybe you don't understand - but others do.

The 3 conflicts mentioned above have completely different dynamics.

The Indonesian military is incompetent and corrupt - it is a money making machine not a war fighting machine, and the GAM were a small, ineffective group; the Aceh conflict was ostensibly about independence but it really was about $$$. The Javanese were in Aceh to benefit from the natural resources (mainly wood, rubber and oil), including trafficking of marijuana. Many Indonesian generals walked away as multi-millionaires.

The Colombian FARC were a massive rebel army (at their peak): they were well armed, trained, and proficient in military operations, especially in intelligence gathering, unconventional operations (such as kidnapping for ransom) and guerrilla warfare - the GAM / AS / MILF are not. The war turned around 10 years ago, because the Colombians finally started accepting help from the US.

President Alvaro Uribe's government actually won the war militarily (by conducting cross border raids) and killing off the command structure - the last few years, the FARC have been nothing more than a minor nuisance - the truce came about so the government could repatriate all the military hostages - some of whom had been in captivity for over 10 years.

The Filipino 'rebel' groups are only a handful of poorly trained, poorly armed guerrillas isolated in a small area of the country, and the Filipino military is massive. Both sides benefit materially from keeping the 'conflict' ongoing.

Remember, war is business. I'll leave it at that ....
 
Uncle Sam had poured in billion and committed hundred of thousand of troops and who won the Vietnam War at the end?
War is business but business do get burst regularly.
 
What about Tubbataha? Scheduled to go next week. I've in the past rationalized the risk by thinking that liveaboards would be a poor target (hard to plan, easier to raid a resort or other fixed location). Is it true the reef is properly patrolled?
 
Depends what you mean by properly. There is a manned ranger station out there, which you may visit. (Ramshackle, they were selling t-shirts to visitors to help raise money towards a better station, or so we were told.) I saw 2 small though probably fast boats. They are there to prevent stuff like illegal fishing and they definitely keep track of all the boats in the area. On a whiteboard. What they have the capability to do beyond acting as a deterrent by being there, I dunno. (Other than call for backup. It took 10 hours for the coast guard to get out there when needed for a dive incident.)

Personally I wouldn't worry. Not that I have any real basis to judge.
 
It's early to pronounce on breaking news, but something nasty is happening at Resorts World hotel near Manila airport. If someone wanted a pretext for martial law, it may just have been handed to him.
 
FT:
It's early to pronounce on breaking news, but something nasty is happening at Resorts World hotel near Manila airport. If someone wanted a pretext for martial law, it may just have been handed to him.
This has been announced as a robbery by a lone gunman with no casualties. Not considered terrorism.
 
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