Despite the warnings people traveled to XYZ and are now stuck. Who is responsible?
- Thread starter Scared Silly
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OT: In re driving since ZX (the Zombie Apocalypse)
I interface constantly with the PoPo. Locally, they are being advised to limit unnecessary interaction. In traffic, unless somebody is doing something dangerous or really amusing...let it go.
The effect? I’m seeing a lot of excessive speed on surface streets. Arguably, they are so deserted that Walking Dead Rules of the Road might allow for this. BUT, families are coming out, kids are learning to pedal bikes, and there are any number of other self entitled douche bags who are driving their mom van or 4x4 as if it were a Porsche. As if they knew how to drive a Porsche.
Any type of accident and what then happens to you...is not good right now.
back on topic.... That is why being “stuck in paradise” isn’t such an inviting thing. How many biological isolation units in total are there in the Caribbean?
Watch that sh*t show crank up in 4 or 6 weeks.
I interface constantly with the PoPo. Locally, they are being advised to limit unnecessary interaction. In traffic, unless somebody is doing something dangerous or really amusing...let it go.
The effect? I’m seeing a lot of excessive speed on surface streets. Arguably, they are so deserted that Walking Dead Rules of the Road might allow for this. BUT, families are coming out, kids are learning to pedal bikes, and there are any number of other self entitled douche bags who are driving their mom van or 4x4 as if it were a Porsche. As if they knew how to drive a Porsche.
Any type of accident and what then happens to you...is not good right now.
back on topic.... That is why being “stuck in paradise” isn’t such an inviting thing. How many biological isolation units in total are there in the Caribbean?
Watch that sh*t show crank up in 4 or 6 weeks.
Also OT: A lot of people who drive Porsches have absolutely no idea on how to drive a Porsche 
Was just out - many people walking, riding bikes, and generally milling about, also speed traps - this is on country roads! Be safe and thoughtful out there - wow what a concept.
Ray - Cynic at large at Curmudgeon U
Was just out - many people walking, riding bikes, and generally milling about, also speed traps - this is on country roads! Be safe and thoughtful out there - wow what a concept.
Ray - Cynic at large at Curmudgeon U
OP
Scared Silly
Contributor
Ray thanks for chiming. Always good to have first hand replies.
As I started the thread let me ask the following. By the time you left 9 March, there were over 500 cases in the USA, Northern Italy was about to go into a lock down, some countries had already restricted air travel, by the end of February, Mexico their first case, and a week later, on March 6 Costa Rica had their first case. All before you left.
So while there was no Level 4 travel alert in place, or cases in Honduras, the hand writing was on the wall for sometime that it was not a matter of if but just when the virus was going to hit Honduras and other Central American countries.
As such, please tell us more into what went into your line of thinking? Did you just rely on there not being a Level 4 alert in place and that there were not cases in Honduras?
You are correct WRT your count - a bit shy of the real number actually. I have started to look at the data to get a sense of the actual growth rates, and here is what I found:
This data is all in the US and anybody can verify this by going to the Johns Hopkins site.
By 3/9 there were 584 cases in the US, 0 deaths, and 0 hospitalizations. There was some press but not that much. Central America had no known cases.
By 3/25 there were 270367 cases and 3565 deaths. The first death was 3/11.
This is astounding growth - there are a lot of folks way smarter than I, but there was NO mention of a growth progression like this. Frankly, I had no idea this is what was in store.
Now risk analysis: We ALL take risks on a daily basis, some of us more so than others. My wife and I tend to fall into that category. I have found that there are people who are generally on the favoring the lower risk side, and every once in a while they are correct - to the chagrin of those risk takers... and they are vindicated in hindsight.
That said, this was NOT a playing the odds kinda thing. On a global scale the growth rate of this disease is unprecedented, no kidding, we - the world has not seen this kind of thing before on the scale it is on. There have been other pandemics, but transportation was not nearly as easy then as it is now.
If you are a numbers kinda person: there are higher (maybe) R0 (the rate that a disease gets transmitted) beasties out there:
Disease Transmission R0
Measles 12–18
Pertussis 12–17
Diphtheria 6–7
But we have treatments for these, and when they were a headline kind of thing, transportation was quite as prevalent.
My wife and I started talking about cutting things short on 3/12, we didn't! In that 20/20 hindsight we were wrong.
I want to also address one of your comments but in a new email.
Ray
This data is all in the US and anybody can verify this by going to the Johns Hopkins site.
By 3/9 there were 584 cases in the US, 0 deaths, and 0 hospitalizations. There was some press but not that much. Central America had no known cases.
By 3/25 there were 270367 cases and 3565 deaths. The first death was 3/11.
This is astounding growth - there are a lot of folks way smarter than I, but there was NO mention of a growth progression like this. Frankly, I had no idea this is what was in store.
Now risk analysis: We ALL take risks on a daily basis, some of us more so than others. My wife and I tend to fall into that category. I have found that there are people who are generally on the favoring the lower risk side, and every once in a while they are correct - to the chagrin of those risk takers... and they are vindicated in hindsight.
That said, this was NOT a playing the odds kinda thing. On a global scale the growth rate of this disease is unprecedented, no kidding, we - the world has not seen this kind of thing before on the scale it is on. There have been other pandemics, but transportation was not nearly as easy then as it is now.
If you are a numbers kinda person: there are higher (maybe) R0 (the rate that a disease gets transmitted) beasties out there:
Disease Transmission R0
Measles 12–18
Pertussis 12–17
Diphtheria 6–7
But we have treatments for these, and when they were a headline kind of thing, transportation was quite as prevalent.
My wife and I started talking about cutting things short on 3/12, we didn't! In that 20/20 hindsight we were wrong.
I want to also address one of your comments but in a new email.
Ray
Ok, you made this comment in your 1st post: "...Yet blame the US Government when things south."
Your comment is also a bit vague - not sure what you think we were blaming the government for unless it was that 'abandonment' thing.
To set the record straight - Do I feel we were 'reckless' nope, not at all. Risk adverse people may feel that way, perhaps 'average' people might, did we - nope, not at first. To put it in perspective, my wife and my look for dive destinations in a small 3rd world places, that has few tourist, and great culture, and generally really hard to get to. Been doing this for a while, both of us...
So now stuff happens, we emailed the state dept and called the embassy looking for information - not sure if you feel that the US gov should be on the hook for information, anyway, the US gov acts as if they are not. We get crickets, nothing, The president of a country closes the borders (10 hours before our flight out of there) and the Embassy has NO information on their sites for a couple of days.
Then, early on, it becomes obvious to all 500+ Americans in Honduras - not kidding about that number, we all got organized immediately, within 10 hours of the announcement, there were 100's of people on WhatsAp chat channels. In addition to a complete lack of information from the US government, the REAL culprit appears: American Airlines and Delta Airlines - they WALKED away for their customers. On the phone, to me and others, they simply said 'We will not transport you out of there', no kidding, pretty close to a quote. United, on the other hand, was far more responsible.
Here is where the government completely dropped the ball and yes abandoned us - Although they The government) promised a boat load (somewhere between a pant load and a crap load) of money to the airlines, the government were allowing the airlines to IGNORE their customers who bought and paid for tickets.
To head off the 'but the borders were closed' comments: The Hondurans were VERY clear that as long as the Airlines arrived with no passengers - deadheading, they could pick up their customers. The airlines refused. Yep, all but United - who were initially only dealing with their customers, and oh yea, the Canadian airlines. Must have been 5 or 6 or maybe more flights out immediately after the border closure.
The other thing the Government could have done was to fast-track a charter. I was actively involved in trying to set up and get on some, probably 4 in total, and it took a week for a VERY well connected company to make it work: Global Guardian is you care.
I don't really know how far you would go to help someone, or how uncomfortable you would would be willing get top help someone, but in general I have always found divers and race car drivers to be among the most helpful and generous folks when it comes to others, clearly our government and our airlines are neither...
Ray
Your comment is also a bit vague - not sure what you think we were blaming the government for unless it was that 'abandonment' thing.
To set the record straight - Do I feel we were 'reckless' nope, not at all. Risk adverse people may feel that way, perhaps 'average' people might, did we - nope, not at first. To put it in perspective, my wife and my look for dive destinations in a small 3rd world places, that has few tourist, and great culture, and generally really hard to get to. Been doing this for a while, both of us...
So now stuff happens, we emailed the state dept and called the embassy looking for information - not sure if you feel that the US gov should be on the hook for information, anyway, the US gov acts as if they are not. We get crickets, nothing, The president of a country closes the borders (10 hours before our flight out of there) and the Embassy has NO information on their sites for a couple of days.
Then, early on, it becomes obvious to all 500+ Americans in Honduras - not kidding about that number, we all got organized immediately, within 10 hours of the announcement, there were 100's of people on WhatsAp chat channels. In addition to a complete lack of information from the US government, the REAL culprit appears: American Airlines and Delta Airlines - they WALKED away for their customers. On the phone, to me and others, they simply said 'We will not transport you out of there', no kidding, pretty close to a quote. United, on the other hand, was far more responsible.
Here is where the government completely dropped the ball and yes abandoned us - Although they The government) promised a boat load (somewhere between a pant load and a crap load) of money to the airlines, the government were allowing the airlines to IGNORE their customers who bought and paid for tickets.
To head off the 'but the borders were closed' comments: The Hondurans were VERY clear that as long as the Airlines arrived with no passengers - deadheading, they could pick up their customers. The airlines refused. Yep, all but United - who were initially only dealing with their customers, and oh yea, the Canadian airlines. Must have been 5 or 6 or maybe more flights out immediately after the border closure.
The other thing the Government could have done was to fast-track a charter. I was actively involved in trying to set up and get on some, probably 4 in total, and it took a week for a VERY well connected company to make it work: Global Guardian is you care.
I don't really know how far you would go to help someone, or how uncomfortable you would would be willing get top help someone, but in general I have always found divers and race car drivers to be among the most helpful and generous folks when it comes to others, clearly our government and our airlines are neither...
Ray
OP
Scared Silly
Contributor
A couple nits for you, as I posted Costa Rica reported their first case on 6 March:
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/a...rms-first-coronavirus-case-in-central-america
Now given the news cycle, certainly easy to miss that.
Regarding the growth projection, exponential growth was being talked about but most people do not understand it. As I have a science background and do research as well as being married to someone in the medical field we both knew that this was going to blow up.
The best example of exponential growth most people can understand is start with a penny, the next day double it, so 2 cents, the next day double it, so 4 cents, the next day double it, so 8 cents. That continuous doubling is exponential growth. And for completeness after 30 days one would have $10 million dollars.
Here is a good website showing the growth.
Coronavirus Update (Live): 532,224 Cases and 24,089 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
If one choses the logarithmic scale that is an exponential with a base of 10 (my example above has a base of 2)
I need to digest the rest of your post. Thanks for that.
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/a...rms-first-coronavirus-case-in-central-america
Now given the news cycle, certainly easy to miss that.
Regarding the growth projection, exponential growth was being talked about but most people do not understand it. As I have a science background and do research as well as being married to someone in the medical field we both knew that this was going to blow up.
The best example of exponential growth most people can understand is start with a penny, the next day double it, so 2 cents, the next day double it, so 4 cents, the next day double it, so 8 cents. That continuous doubling is exponential growth. And for completeness after 30 days one would have $10 million dollars.
Here is a good website showing the growth.
Coronavirus Update (Live): 532,224 Cases and 24,089 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
If one choses the logarithmic scale that is an exponential with a base of 10 (my example above has a base of 2)
I need to digest the rest of your post. Thanks for that.
I have a pretty strong math background and understand various non linear growth patterns. Perhaps you had a good handle on it, but most did not, and outside of few organizations - who are still bickering on what R0 is for this beastie really is, and with the way the information was largely downplayed, few could have anticipated the true growth.
As stated, 20/20 hindsight is good to have, we could all use a good dose of it right about now
As stated, 20/20 hindsight is good to have, we could all use a good dose of it right about now
While I'm sympathetic to the situation faced by this couple, by March 9th the State Department was counseling colleges to bring students home from all study abroad programs and colleges and prep schools starting spring break that week were telling students to bring home anything they might need for the next few months because there was a possibility they might not be returning after vacation. I had to take a flight on March 3th. At that point there already there had been runs on face masks and hand sanitizer. People were already practicing a crude kind of social distancing and wiping down everything within touch of their plane seats. There was ample news of COVID-19 circulating on cruise ships. Many families I know cancelled their travel plans for the week of the 7th-15th.
This couple took a gamble and lost. That stinks, but when one takes a gamble they have to be willing to live with the consequences.
This couple took a gamble and lost. That stinks, but when one takes a gamble they have to be willing to live with the consequences.
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