Herd Immunity in Indonesia

[FishCity]

We have a lob booked and 50% nonref deposit paid for June 2022. Starry eyed idiots that we were, we booked this March.
Have to consider the immunity status of us, the lob crew, the lob passengers, people on the flights and airports, hotels, taxis. Seemed like it would be far enough off back in March. Hah.
Hate to kiss our $8k goodbye but we are getting older and the clock is ticking.

 

[Indah]

We have a lob booked and 50% nonref deposit paid for June 2022. Starry eyed idiots that we were, we booked this March.
Have to consider the immunity status of us, the lob crew, the lob passengers, people on the flights and airports, hotels, taxis. Seemed like it would be far enough off back in March. Hah.
Hate to kiss our $8k goodbye but we are getting older and the clock is ticking.

June 2022 could be fine if there is vaccine starting Feb.2021. The population of Indonesia will not be vaccinated/immune up to 60% I guess. But you probably will?

 

[RemcoDutch]

Not even gonna touch this with a 20ft pole lol

 

[DownUnderwater Dan]

I would feel better about going if it were accomplished by vaccine OR we knew more about the duration of "natural post exposure" immunity AND the data were deemed scientifically valid by third parties.
But I am not going anywhere until I have a good vaccine. Then I will be much more likely to go to places that are not community spread hotspots.

A covid vaccine only has to be 50% effective for the FDA to grant it full approval. A vaccine is still far from being the solution to providing effective protection for all.

The very good thing about this time is that medical advances may discover new ways of making vaccines for all different types of viruses & diseases, in turn saving millions of lives of people who die from other illnesses

 

[ChrisM]

That's not how herd immunity works

 

[mwerle]

June 2022 could be fine if there is vaccine starting Feb.2021.

That would make it the fastest vaccine ever developed and would not have had much in the way of testing done. Be my guest; I will wait until the medical professionals give it the all-clear, not some numpty government departments or corporations.

The reason it takes a long time to develop vaccines is not only getting the vaccine to create antibodies in people, but also not causing any (serious) sideeffects, and the only way to determine that is through studies which can't really be sped up.

(IANAD)

 

[Shasta_man]

In doing a few calculations on this problem, the scale of populations make clear what a huge problem this is for the world.

At a rate of ~15,000 tests per day, testing 7 days a week, it would take ~27 years to just test half of the population of Indonesia.

 

[Indah]

That would make it the fastest vaccine ever developed and would not have had much in the way of testing done. Be my guest; I will wait until the medical professionals give it the all-clear, not some numpty government departments or corporations.

The reason it takes a long time to develop vaccines is not only getting the vaccine to create antibodies in people, but also not causing any (serious) sideeffects, and the only way to determine that is through studies which can't really be sped up.

(IANAD)

Indeed a big IF. I do not think that ever so much money has been spend on the development of a vaccine. And the use of IT is also an innovation. But we cannot be sure yet there ever will be a vaccine. And how many people will be willing to get the shots. Further, people take many risks and go often against logic and their own health. For example, people still smoke and drink alcohol. I have no idea how this all
will work out.

 

[DeputyDan]

I bet one benjamin franklin that there is never a vaccine.
We will get our seasonal COVID shot just like the flu shot.
Hell, they may combine them.

Do I know for sure - nope but this is what I would bet my money on over a vaccine.

 

[lexvil]

I bet one benjamin franklin that there is never a vaccine.
We will get our seasonal COVID shot just like the flu shot.
Hell, they may combine them.

Do I know for sure - nope but this is what I would bet my money on over a vaccine.

You may want to be more specific by adding “effective” to the bet.