Indonesia: Bali set to welcome tourists in July
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This is about Europe. But it explains most of the topics related to Covid-19 and vaccines. For people who are afraid to be ignorant
. https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/de...ction-of-SARS-CoV-2-following-vaccination.pdfI did already since March 2020. But thanks anyway. But I wonder if you really understand it. The article to which you linked is not relevant to my questions. Data from clinical studies and from real life differ a little bit most of the time. But the conclusion is that nobody know yet in how far the the different vaccines protect against asymptomatic infections and in how far these infected people can infect others. https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/de...ction-of-SARS-CoV-2-following-vaccination.pdf
March 2020!!!!!!! The seriousness of the infection was still an unknown then.
No vaccine was available at that time!!!!!
You have not changed a bit!!!!!
You just like to come here and ask questions where most of the answers are readily available on line!!!!!!
How long has the vaccine been available?
Do you really believe that there is any answer for the effectiveness of the vaccine to last.
Before you change the subject to variants, no one know for sure.
You are the only one in my ignore list! Well done.
No vaccine was available at that time!!!!!
You have not changed a bit!!!!!
You just like to come here and ask questions where most of the answers are readily available on line!!!!!!
How long has the vaccine been available?
Do you really believe that there is any answer for the effectiveness of the vaccine to last.
Before you change the subject to variants, no one know for sure.
You are the only one in my ignore list! Well done.
The " true meaning of effectiveness of an vaccine " was of course known long before anybody heard about Covid-19. Because this is used for all vaccines. It is a bit weird that you write: You have not changed a bit. As far as I know you are not one of my ex-wives. Actually, you do not know me at all. But I still would like to read a answer to my original question. Would vaccinating 70% of the Indonesian population be enough to reach herd immunity, or should it be much more (100% ?). All policy in Indonesia seems to based on that hypothesis. As soon 70% is vaccinated all will be fine. I highly doubt that, but would be very happy to change my mind.
Dan
Contributor
Perhaps this article helps to answer your question?
Herd immunity and COVID-19 (coronavirus): What you need to know
Thanks, but the article does not answer my question. In this and many other articles is assumed is that at least 70% (or more) of a population should be immune to reach herd immunity. But if a vaccine only offers immunity to 75% of the population, should not 100% be vaccinated then? I understand that a part of the population will be immune by earlier infections, but let's keep it simple because we do not know in how far this would protect against the new variants and for how long thee immunity by previous infection would last.
Dan
Contributor
Thanks again. Very informative. Although in many parts of Indonesia 3 generations live practically in one household. Pity that the article is from August 2020. I assume there are new or additional insights since then. One phrase especially draw my attention: If the vaccine is not perfect but instead reduces susceptibility by a fraction E (so E = 1 corresponds to 100% efficacy), then the critical vaccination coverage is given by vc = E–1(1 – 1/R0) (7), implying that a bigger fraction needs to be vaccinated if the vaccine is not perfect.
drrich2
Contributor
In the U.S., Dr. Anthony Fauci has shied away from naming a specific 'magic point' for herd immunity where all is well from that point on. And as you allude to mentioning the commonality of multi-generational households in Indonesia vs. more segregated social models in some places, that point may vary widely.
A big issue is what one thinks 'herd immunity' means. COVID-19 is not going the way of small pox. So, does herd immunity mean...
1.) Nobody (or almost nobody) can get the condition, and when someone does, it's a news-making surprise (likes measles in the United States)?
I don't think this is going to happen.
2.) It routinely moves through a small but substantial minority of the population, killing a small portion of them, and the rest of us don't make any lifestyle changes around it (other than maybe a vaccination shot). Those known sick with it are advised to 'stay home and drink plenty of fluids' and try not to spread it around. Most get over it...but a few don't. This is how the flu works in the United States. There's an annual death toll, but not particularly disruptive in the greater society.
This is going to happen.
Herd immunity reduces the number of people who have it, and their probability of encountering and transmitting it to a susceptible person, thus in a multi-factorial way cutting the total number of cases (particularly hospitalizations, deaths and long-term impairment cases) to something we can more conveniently deal with.
Put another way, the point of herd immunity depends in part on what body count we're willing to pay to get back to normal, plus some other factors.
COVID-19 is new and something we're not used to, plus it's killing a lot of people and straining healthcare resources. All those are reasons it's treated as a big deal. At some point, we hope to beat it down to be the 'new flu,' so to speak.
The next question is...how will annual mortality figures for COVID-19 compare to those for flu, once we're successfully into that period? Time may tell...
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