Boogie711
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Boogie711:
Let me help you out here - this is an article which appeared in today's Toronto Sun:
Flawed science behind the Kyoto Accord
For years, many people believed the Earth was getting warmer and that modern man and his industries were to blame.
But how would those people react if they discovered that global warming aint all its cracked up to be? Well, if youre in that camp, brace yourself. Youre in for a rude awakening.
Previously, scientists and environmental groups touted one scientific theory to justify their claim of global warming the so-called hockey stick theory developed in 1998 by Prof. Michael Mann of the University of Virginia.
Mann, an environmental scientist, plotted temperature change in the northern hemisphere for the last 1,000 years.
He claimed that weather conditions remained fairly stable until the 20th century, when the temperature began to shoot up. This curvature, which visibly created the effect of a hockey stick, showed, Mann said, that we were living in a period of warmer weather. The hockey stick theory initially received huge support within the scientific community, and Manns findings were published in scientific journals.
It successfully passed two peer reviews at the United Nations International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), making global warming the new international cause celebre. Manns theory also led to the birth and approval of the Kyoto protocol, an attempt to combat global warming by reducing man made greenhouse gas emissions like carbon dioxide, thought to the be the major cause of the global warming phenomenon.
To be sure, the hockey stick theory had its skeptics. But, at first, the IPCC wouldnt pay any attention to them and scientific journals wouldnt publish their research.
Now, thanks largely to two Canadian researchers, thats all changed. Due to their efforts, the hockey stick theory is now being widely challenged in the scientific community as an incomplete, flawed and ultimately invalid piece of research.
In January, University of Guelph economics professor Ross McKitrick and Toronto-based mineral exploration consultant Stephen McIntyre had their own article accepted in the important scientific journal, Geophysical Research Letters (the journal that published one of Manns earliest hockey stick papers). What they discovered helped snap Manns hockey stick
into pieces. Here are just a few of their findings.
No academic or institution attempted to independently replicate the hockey stick theory before coming out in support of it. For all the billions of dollars spent on climate research, the theory was, incredibly, simply accepted as fact.
When McIntyre tried to get the data from Mann in 2003, he was told by the lead author that he had forgotten the exact location. One of Manns colleagues said it would have to be compiled since it didnt exist in one spot. McIntyre thought this bizarre, since he assumed they would have some type of due-diligence package for the IPCC on hand. They didnt, because the IPCC hadnt actually verified it.
Finally, key statistics in the hockey stick study were called into question. Since reliable temperature measurements have only been available since 1850, todays researchers use proxies such as tree rings to help determine global warming. Mann said he had used 112 proxies, but McIntyre countered that 35 were never used. Then, in 2003, five years after his initial study, Mann said he had used 159 proxies, a number never before disclosed.
When McIntyre and McKitrick asked for the original source code for this new information (which Mann refused to provide), they discovered a computer program on Manns FTP site, with 500 lines for calculating tree rings. They also found the tree-ring series with hockey stick shapes
dominated his original data.
As McIntyre put it: Manns program mines for series with a hockey-stick shape.
Heres the kicker. McIntyre and McKitrick also discovered that the weather in the 15th century was actually warmer than in the 20th century. They found that out by replicating Manns temperature calculations on their own.
So now, the environmental science community is up in arms.
Manns theory still has supporters, but a growing number of climate experts are questioning it.
Unfortunately, the costly and ineffective by-product of this apparently flawed theory, Kyoto, came into effect in February.
