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My wife saw ‘em at Manta Point a few days ago. I was at the hotel with icky tummy. :(

Oh dear, sorry about the tummy. How's baby making out?

And I can't remember where you're staying in Padang Bai. Can you hear the ferry?
 
Depends on which curve you're talking about and what you call the peak of the curve. Observations from the last ten years show that if there is any curve, it could be a very flat and broad one, not all observations follow a centered reduced Gaussian law.
On the other hand, there's a kind of bell curve of sighting occurrences within a season that can either start early or late, from July to the end of august. For instance this year the season seemed pretty late, for the unfortunates like me who dived Bali until mid/end august, they had very few chances to spot molamolas while it suddenly triggered in september.
i wouldn't be surprised if molamola reports were to be seen until the end of november.

In my last ten last years diving Bali I've seen molamola mostly end of august/september but also because I was there at the time, sometimes I had viewed on the net images of them a month before, and so often long after I was back home. There were also years were molas completely ignored the fact they had to show up in "peak season" while I was there too... but they still didn't, for my sins... o_O

I strongly believe Molamola predictions follow the same pattern as a short time weather prediction : that is to say, you have more chances seeing them or not if they'd been spotted or not the day before.:D
The only correlation I'd seen so far is that you have to be freezing your butt and you should follow the bannerfish, I haven't noticed any other correlation with the moon cycle like for instance hammerhead sighting at some other place. I've seen Molamola on any phase of the moon, but it was always cold, there was a flock of bannerfish and also... I was there...

The tactics you describe with the guide exploring further down is also the one the guides of operation I'm diving with use on the wall type of diving like in Crystal bay for instance, (providing you get there early before the crowds who will do everything to frighten them), but it will be different on different bottoms such as Mimpang or Tepekong stations, or at Manta Point, Manta bay, etc. Sometimes you don't have to to be diving that deep to meet them typically, Mimpang is 25-28m...

My information is limited to my experience in diving in Nusa Penida once a year at different month of the year for the last 11 years and sticking with the same guide, Today (short name of Ketut Gede Somadhyana) of aqua cat bali, the best travel to scuba diving / dive / diving in Bali, Indonesia who has been a DM in Bali for 25 years. I don't browse FaceBook nor ask any other dive guide / dive operator, I just ask Today. His odds in finding Mola Mola for me has been very good. :)

I haven't seen Oceanic Mola Mola in warm water. I only saw them in cold water of Nusa Penida and Punta Vincente Roca (Galapagos), so cold water is just one of the parameter (sign) that you "might" be lucky to see them. The water temperatures in Nusa Penida, for most of the time I was there, had been cold, from as low 19 to as high as 22 C, whether it was in June or December. So, that is not the only indicator for Mola Mola.

Seeing bannerfish is also a good indicator of the coming of Mola Mola to their cleaning station. I was incouraged to descend into the depth when I saw some of the bannerfish swam along with me. In fact I had them in the original video clip before seeing the Mola Mola. I had to cut the scene out during editing the video to meet the video duration I want to have. They remind me of the barber fish in hammerhead cleaning station in Cocos.

It's interesting that you mention: "I strongly believe Molamola predictions follow the same pattern as a short time weather prediction : that is to say, you have more chances seeing them or not if they'd been spotted or not the day before.:D" I asked Today about the dive plan for 6 of us (4 of them have never been in Nusa Penida, nor seeing Mola Mola), whom have only one day to do a 3-tank boat dive in Nusa Penida. He said that we would be going to Manta Point first to see the Mantas. Then we would go to Blue Corner for Mola Mola and would decide where to go for the 3rd dive afterwards. I asked him, how about Crystal Bay? He said that there was no Mola Mola spotted there in the last few days. We didn't know then that a Great White Shark was hanging around in Crystal Bay on that day too. Perhaps that's why the Mola Mola went to Blue Corner? Whatever the reason, we are glad that he made that decision. Some DMs are just blessed with good luck, I guess.

After seeing Mola Mola on the 2nd dive in Blue Corner, we decided to repeat the dive for the 3rd dive, as one of us was skipping the 2nd dive after freezing his butt off on the 1st dive and has not seen Mola Mola before. Unfortunately, no Mola Mola was seen on the 3rd dive, but I saw Thresher Shark for the first time in my life after 14 years, 830 dives. So, that's still a great dive for me. :D
 
Agreed. October is a good month for Mola Mola

Some of you may be lucky enough to see Mola Mola in October. However, raining season starts in October too (most of the time). The water visibility will start to deteriorate then. So the odds of seeing them in cold, deep water, with limited bottom time and visibility, would just diminish greatly.
 
Glad that you are still able to be enjoying yourself. What about manta?
Mantas are back. We had a week with no rays, when the boats could even get there as swell became outrageous. Since the last new moon and against everyone's intimate feelings (including the Indonesian weather agency), it looks like we have entered rain season. We had some heavy rainfall last week end, mostly at night. Next week looks wet above water... Viz is a bit down as a result. Water temp is also up. No molas have been sighted since AFAIK!
Overall, 2019 was a very strange sunfish season. It took a while for them to appear. Sightings were irregular all season except for 10-15 days at the end of September when we had tons. Having the molas fade away at the end of October like this year is pretty much what should be expected. It always shocks me when I hear sunfish season starts in July. For me, it's usually later...

@anchochile: No need to worry about Manta Point... There are several rematch opportunities! Just stay away from weird Candidasa food options the day before!
 
We had some heavy rainfall last week end, mostly at night.

Interesting, we have only had one night of rain in Sanur so far. About 30 minutes after South Africa won the world cup, none since then. Amazing how we have such different weather patterns on a relatively small island
 
Yup, here the biggest rainfall was on Saturday night. Manggis, 7 Km up the road, had no rain that night. They got showered on Sunday evening when it was dry here. Have a look at the weather forecast for next week...
 
No luck today, but the other group from my boat saw a mola at Tepekong (we went left, they went right), so they’re still around. Still great dives, lots of sharks and a gorgeous baby frog fish in the cave at Biaha, plus a dogtooth tuna at the wall.

Back to Biaha/Tepekong tomorrow, last chance!
 
Where is "Tepekong" compared to this map?
 

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Where is "Tepekong" compared to this map?

Tepekong is not on Nusa Penida. It is a small island north of Nusa Penida, near Padang Bay. It’s often called Gili Topekong (Gili means small island). See BiDP map, below.

12D31C17-22E5-4B0F-A0D8-6E8B19B66071.jpeg
 
Some of you may be lucky enough to see Mola Mola in October. However, raining season starts in October too (most of the time). The water visibility will start to deteriorate then. So the odds of seeing them in cold, deep water, with limited bottom time and visibility, would just diminish greatly.

I don't think the rain dictates the visibility in Nusa Penida as much as swells, tides and also the currents that it's well known for.

In my years at Bali, October is not a particularly rainy month, more often it's when it starts to get hot and the pleasant cool nights fade away

Diving conditions vary greatly in Penida at times. I dived East Penida just over 2 weeks ago, and the temp was a warm 27°C-28°C to 30m. On the contrary I talked to a DM buddy the day before, and he said it got to 16°C at Crystal Bay and the other group diving before his group seen a Mola Mola

My dive guide that day told me that in his last years of diving in Penida that it was a very surprising season. He mentioned dolphins weren't shy this year and seen during dives at Manta Bay, he also mentioned the GWS & hammerhead sightings, and that that week he had seen guitar shark, thresher shark and dolphins

Like you mentioned before, the group diving in front of you just missed out on seeing pak Mola and his family. Sometimes dives just fall into place very nicely at the right time...like on Sep 20 2019 :callme:
 

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