Any Thoughts on Dorian

[surgeman]

I am scheduled to fly out to Coz tomorrow and am a little concerned about the computer models for TS Dorian. Right now they are suggesting a direct hit towards the end of the week. I know that a lot can change and would hate to cancel for nothing but also would not like to get stuck in Coz during a TS. Not sure what I am asking as I am sure no one has a crystal ball but any thoughts ?

 

[gopbroek]

I think Caribbean Hurricane Network - stormCARIB.com - Local Reports on Tropical Systems threatening the Caribbean Islands has been a pretty accurate resource in the past.

 

[robint]

All the models I have seen show it hitting Cuba and veering north to Florida. Nothing is exact about this, but rarely do you see storms veer south once they hit land, due to rotation. It is almost always north. It could hit Cozumel but I would be willing to take the risk.

 

[deborahdelamar]

Haven't looked at Stormcarib but recent thoughts on Dorian are that it has to survive Hispanola and Cuba to make it this far and that it will most likely track north of Cozumel. Thank goodness that we're a small target! There's always a chance of a TS arriving here during the season and we're well equipped to get through one.

 

[surgeman]

Robin, I hope you are right but if you look at wunderground.com those models have been updated and seem to be heading for the Yucatan.

 

[Brules]

It's so far away that unless you plan on staying longer than 1 week, you should be there and back before it gets close enough to cause any issues for ya.

Also, the models change every day so they showed it veering north then straight, but they can change tomorrow.

 

[Christi]

Robin, I hope you are right but if you look at wunderground.com those models have been updated and seem to be heading for the Yucatan.

What Deb said AND I am looking at it right now - not sure how you think this seems to be heading to the Yucatan? And where is there any indication at all that they are suggesting a direct hit on Cozumel? That's an impossible prediction to make at this point! But, even as the current models suggest, we're not in the scope and your trip won't be affected if you are flying in tomorrow anyway! It's still WAY too far out to tell and absolutely not worth canceling your trip over.

 

[surgeman]

Thanks all, I feel better about my decision to come.

Christi this is the map I was worried about. I was hoping I was not interpreting it correctly but it looks like a direct hit - but yes I do agree with what everyone says and that with a week to go anything can happen.

 

[Christi]

Thanks all, I feel better about my decision to come.

Christi this is the map I was worried about. I was hoping I was not interpreting it correctly but it looks like a direct hit - but yes I do agree with what everyone says and that with a week to go anything can happen.

View attachment 161315

Stay calm and have fun!

There is nothing about that that indicates a direct hit!

 

[Doubler]

Go and don't worry. I'm not going to be there so everything will be well. Hurricanes hate me and follow me on vacation so I now vacation in the winter. I'm serious. Three vacations, three hurricanes.