Asia trips and coronavirus

[bobfmdc]

The seasonal US flu is more scary to me with 19 million Americans infected, over 180,000 hospitalized, and 10,000 deaths at the time of this writing.

A deadly virus is spreading from state to state and has infected 19 million Americans so far. It's influenza

But yes, keep watching as services related to your trip may be limited/ shut down (eg transport, lodging, dive operator, non-diving activities, etc.).

I just looked up some figures on the annual (normal) flu vs coronavirus. Coronavirus is killing about 2% of people infected; the kind of flu that we get in the States every year is about 1/20th as deadly as coronavirus. Another interesting factoid--the great flu epidemic of 1918 killed about 2.5% of the people infected, and medical care was certainly inferior to what we have now.

 

[Jay]

I just looked up some figures on the annual (normal) flu vs coronavirus. Coronavirus is killing about 2% of people infected; the kind of flu that we get in the States every year is about 1/20th as deadly as coronavirus. Another interesting factoid--the great flu epidemic of 1918 killed about 2.5% of the people infected, and medical care was certainly inferior to what we have now.

I just ran some numbers from another thread and got 50-100 times but the big assumption is how many people are infected:

Using this: Preliminary In-Season 2019-2020 Flu Burden Estimates the general flu infects 8.8-12.5% of the general (US) population (I used 327m), and of those infected kills between 0.04% and 0.14%.

If the average mortality rate is of the CV19 is 1% (perhaps a bit low?), and it infects 50% (full on pandemic - too low?/high?) then that's 1.6m deaths in the US which vs. the general flu is 40-102x higher.

 

[outofofficebrb]

There is talk about people actually testing positive and being asymptomatic (not seen with the flu) or folks who have it that aren’t actually diagnosed or accepted as having it so some suspect that the actual mortality of Coronavirus is inflated due to the number of people with the virus actually potentially being higher than what is reported. I still don’t believe that Indonesia has 0 cases.

 

[chillyinCanada]

Trump’s reckless coronavirus statements put the entire US at risk

 

[bobfmdc]

I just ran some numbers from another thread and got 50-100 times but the big assumption is how many people are infected:

Using this: Preliminary In-Season 2019-2020 Flu Burden Estimates the general flu infects 8.8-12.5% of the general (US) population (I used 327m), and of those infected kills between 0.04% and 0.14%.

If the average mortality rate is of the CV19 is 1% (perhaps a bit low?), and it infects 50% (full on pandemic - too low?/high?) then that's 1.6m deaths in the US which vs. the general flu is 40-102x higher.

I will go with your numbers. I was using an earlier version of your reference page because I could not find the up to date one--duh. And I was recalling the rough numbers I computed last week.

Nevertheless, the numbers seem to confirm that this particular disease is more dangerous than the usual flu we see, or much much worse than the common cold, as some would say.

Plus, you are also right that the total mortality is a product of the spread of the disease. I also read somewhere that the1918-19 Spanish Flu epidemic affected about 1/3 of U.S. residents.

 

[bobfmdc]

I will go with your numbers. I was using an earlier version of your reference page because I could not find the up to date one--duh. And I was recalling the rough numbers I computed last week.

Nevertheless, the numbers seem to confirm that this particular disease is more dangerous than the usual flu we see, or much much worse than the common cold, as some would say.

Plus, you are also right that the total mortality is a product of the spread of the disease.

(I don't mean to quote my own comment here, but I don't know where to put this)

What I started to add was a caution that some travel insurance policies have a kickout for epidemic/pandemic related reimbursements. I am traveling in a few weeks and thought about adding in at the last minute the Allianz policy that Delta Vacations offers. Then I read the policy and found that it said in a one-liner that it would not cover reimbursement for any charges due to epidemics/pandemics. One of the DAN policies also will not cover medical evacuation if it results from epidemics/pandemics.

 

[ChrisM]

Almost a month after posting the thread for discussion, i still have about 6 weeks until our trip but lately feeling less and less confident that we’ll actually go.

Fun, because I now I get to pay the balance of the trip just charged to my credit card, only to get 1/2 of it back from insurance (which is, of course, better than nothing I suppose)

 

[outofofficebrb]

(I don't mean to quote my own comment here, but I don't know where to put this)

What I started to add was a caution that some travel insurance policies have a kickout for epidemic/pandemic related reimbursements. I am traveling in a few weeks and thought about adding in at the last minute the Allianz policy that Delta Vacations offers. Then I read the policy and found that it said in a one-liner that it would not cover reimbursement for any charges due to epidemics/pandemics. One of the DAN policies also will not cover medical evacuation if it results from epidemics/pandemics.

Dive Assure does cover health related things such as pandemics and epidemics as well as mandatory quarantined and travel warnings. However, you need to purchase 30 days in advance before coverage kicks in for that and also before it is a named issue in that country or region with travel warnings and such.

 

[bobfmdc]

Trump’s reckless coronavirus statements put the entire US at risk

Yes...and, then, there is that factor.

 

[Centrals]

Almost a month after posting the thread for discussion, i still have about 6 weeks until our trip but lately feeling less and less confident that we’ll actually go.

Fun, because I now I get to pay the balance of the trip just charged to my credit card, only to get 1/2 of it back from insurance (which is, of course, better than nothing I suppose)

1. Travel is a must for any vacation aboard.
2. Northern Sulawesi is NOT a popular destination for any overseas visitors unless they are divers. Unfortunately, Singapore is just opposite especially for mainland chinese!!

If you are going then you have to pay close attention to your personal hygiene as well as people around you!!! Surgical mask is a must on the plane and public place, wash your hands often and do not touch your eyes, mouth and nose with your hand. Sanitation wipe is highly recommended.
SARS back in 2002/03 did not stop me from travelling.