An article I read in Forbes about E-Commerce vs. brick & mortar stores claims that studies of E-commerce's impact on brick & mortar point to a declining middle class as being the biggest threat to loss. Only the top 20% of the population have seen their income grow in the USA according to the Census Bureau. The remaining 80% of workers have seen their incomes lag or just keep pace with inflation. The top earners tend to spend less on retail or consumer packaged goods in general. The CPG industry figured that the national median household earns $55,000 annually and spends 8 cents of every dollar on consumer goods. Whereas, a household earning $180,000 will spend only 5 cents of every dollar on consumer goods - a 38% decrease. Following this is a structural shift away from apparel and consumer staples toward electronics and durables. Tech products and cars are seeing the lion's share of purchasing power. The "lost" brick-and-mortar sales that some feel are shifting to online sales are actually going away or shifting to other sectors.
If the above is true, I would assume the top 20% of earners interested in diving might be more inclined to travel to warm water destinations for entry level training and would make their initial purchases in resort areas. Local diving might be less appealing. The dive industry itself promotes dive travel over local diving. Resorts are almost exclusively PADI. DEMA and other entities that say they are trying to increase awareness of the sport with consumers seem to only promote beautiful reefs as an allure. I'm sure such marketing is intentional. The last time we had a true diving hero nearly everyone wanted to be was Lloyd Bridges in Sea Hunt nearly 60 years ago! A declining customer base for brick & mortar stores means that dive shop owners are fighting over every dollar like a pack of wolves. This creates an unpleasant shopping and service atmosphere for customers. I don't enjoy visiting most dive centers as a customer.
I have never owned a shop. As an instructor I used to do quite well in my niche market of freediving and tech/cave diving. Now, I'm on the verge of quitting due to a decline of income. My biggest problem is that the fewer divers who become tech students are opting for sidemount and rebreather training over backmount doubles. If I was a GUE instructor, it would be easier for me to get like-minded students, but then I'd have to give up my solo diving practices. But, I think GUE and UTD may be losing their appeal. What I'm noticing is that beyond entry-level, divers seem to choose a niche path due to agency, equipment, and activity choices. It's more complicated and costly for shop owners to cater to a variety of niche divers compared to the generalist practitioners of the past. Dive shop owners in places such as cave country in northern Florida enjoy an endless stream of niche practitioners and it is easier to meet their needs. It's also far more difficult for me to affiliate with shops and offer niche classes since every Tom, Dick & Sheryl is now a tech or freediving instructor.
Back in June of 1959, skin diver Robert Pamperin was killed by a probable great white shark off La Jolla in San Diego just when The Dive Locker opened with $5,000 seed money. No one went diving that summer. But, the shop survived its lackluster grand opening and many legends worked there and passed through its doors over the years. Today, it isn't the fear of sharks scaring away customers in California. The type of person that took up diving in the early days wouldn't be afraid of the shop owners, their own spouses, or life off the couch.
