Emily

[Rick Murchison]

They're lining up in the Atlantic.
TD5 looks like it'll go ahead and develop and hit somewhere between Miami and the Outer Banks.
Tiresome and ridiculous - and way early.
Wonder what September/October are gonna be like?
Rick

 

[CBulla]

In its own right its gratifying as well.. we have so many of the "it won't hit here" types around here who are not saying a lot this year. They've suddenly become a lot more concerned about storms and securing items than they were a year ago.

 

[DennisW]

It's awfully early for storms to form in the Atlantic where TD5 is and for storms as powerful as mine was. At least, I won't have to see my name up there again. At least not in my lifetime.

 

[simbrooks]

It's awfully early for storms to form in the Atlantic where TD5 is and for storms as powerful as mine was. At least, I won't have to see my name up there again. At least not in my lifetime.

Unless we go all the way through 5 more years as they recycle them every 6 years - or do they take a name off after its been a major hurricane - some names are retired, all were major 'canes, what about the minor ones?

 

[wreckchick]

Minors are recycled, majors are retired.

Yeah TD Emily plus the 2 other blobs behind it coming off Africa. At least I'm still buttoned up from Dennis. I'm thinking the plywood isn't going to come down anytime soon.

R

 

[simbrooks]

Minors are recycled, majors are retired.

Yeah TD Emily plus the 2 other blobs behind it coming off Africa. At least I'm still buttoned up from Dennis. I'm thinking the plywood isn't going to come down anytime soon.

R

Who needs windows anyway?

The models for this one are all over the place ranging from headed to MX to North FL/GA if you extrapolate them, the current track is on the north side of that headed to either nick the bottom of FL/Keys or hit SE FL, but give it a couple of days to see which way it goes. The front that might have swung Dennis has moved offshore and so now there is only a little influence of the Bermuda high and whatever comes across the US through this week - didnt see anything incredible there, that could influence this one, hence the reason the models are so much more splayed out than during Dennis.

 

[Rick Murchison]

NHS sez...
"While There Is Presently Some Easterly Shear With This System...as
Well As Marginal Thermodynamics...the Environment Is Expected To
Become More Favorable For Development In Both Regards Over The Next Few Days. Given This...slow But Steady Strengthening Is
Anticipated Over The Next 72 Hours...and The Official Forecast Is
In Good Agreement With Ships And Gfdl Guidance. The Gfdl...which
Develops The Depression Only Slowly At First...continues To Make
The Cyclone A Significant Hurricane In The Caribbean."
Rick

 

[simbrooks]

Hopefully it will keep moving quickly and not have too much time to stand still and intesify!

IF it does go where the track states, hopefully running through Haiti and then all the way up the spine of Cuba will hopefully take out a lot of its power, not of course wishing anything more on any of the folks there, but that "could" be the outcome given the current guess forecast. However reintensification could occur when it gets back in the Gulf (the track currently seems to go west of FL again - lucky Gulf coast people you guys are up in the northern Gulf areas ), but its still very early to see which side of FL or whether it goes straight up the middle.

 

[CBulla]

Dude.. bring it on... I can't make any less money, in fact, right now my occupational license has Lawnscaping on it right now and it would be of GREAT SERVICE to provide so much additional work!!!

 

[simbrooks]

5pm report:

GOOD LUCK FINDING A CENTER IN THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS CLEARLY A BROAD-SCALE CIRCULATION...THE DEPRESSION REMAINS VERY POORLY ORGANIZED. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A FOCUS OF LOW-LEVEL TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST OF MY ESTIMATED POSITION...AS EVIDENCED BY A MICROWAVE PASS AT 1737Z...BUT FOR THIS PACKAGE I WILL TRY TO LOOK AT THE BIG PICTURE AND FOLLOW THE GEOMETRIC CENTER OF THE OVERALL DISTURBANCE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB...AND 35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. GIVEN THE CYCLONE'S DISHEVELED APPEARANCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/12. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SURPRISINGLY WELL CLUSTERED...WITH THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BEING THE FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE DEPRESSION REMAINS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR AND IS SOUTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND SLOW STEADY STRENGHENING IS ANTICIPATED ...ROUGHLY IN ACCORD WITH THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO MAKE THE CYCLONE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE CARIBBEAN.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Could it be that the NOAA guys are also kind of unhappy about how much work they are having to do with tropical weather so early in the season? I really do like the opening line though "GOOD LUCK FINDING A CENTER IN THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON."