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Herd Immunity in Indonesia

Discussion in 'Indonesia' started by SeaWarden, Sep 10, 2020.

Would you travel to Indonesia after they have accomplished herd immunity?

  1. Yes

    23 vote(s)
    37.7%
  2. No

    38 vote(s)
    62.3%
  1. SeaWarden

    SeaWarden Contributor

    # of Dives: 200 - 499
    Location: Singapore
    144
    29
    Currently there are about 12,000 test per day. About 3500 per day positive. That is 30% of the herd that has been infected. The spreading stops around 60%, that would mean around Feb 2021 next year that Indonesia will accomplish herd immunity.

    Would you travel to Indonesia after they have accomplished herd immunity?
     
  2. FishCity

    FishCity Contributor

    155
    58
    I would feel better about going if it were accomplished by vaccine OR we knew more about the duration of "natural post exposure" immunity AND the data were deemed scientifically valid by third parties.
    But I am not going anywhere until I have a good vaccine. Then I will be much more likely to go to places that are not community spread hotspots.
     
    Lewis88 and RyanT like this.
  3. Jcp2

    Jcp2 Literally virtually diving ScubaBoard Supporter

    1,243
    1,397
    I kind of want my own immunity. It would be like a Native American traveling to Europe in 1800’s because there was European herd immunity to various Old World diseases. I think we’ll find out that modern living conditions that are considered “clean” by Western standards predispose those living there to disproportionate immune dysfunction after exposure to a new infection.

    Hygiene hypothesis - Wikipedia
     
    markmud, RyanT, Bubble99 and 6 others like this.
  4. tridacna

    tridacna ScubaBoard Supporter ScubaBoard Supporter

    # of Dives: 2,500 - 4,999
    Location: New Jersey
    7,347
    4,665
    You're making a lot of assumptions about those numbers remaining constant. Plus about herd immunity in general. Long term immunity based on pre-existing SARS-COV-2 infection has not yet been proven beyond a short time frame. Throw in a working vaccine and I may reconsider a trip to Indo around Nov 2022 if all goes well. You'll need more than 500 million doses just for Indo. That's a lot of islands to visit with vials. Then...you're going to have to persuade all locals to get two doses. Gonna be fun.
     
  5. stepfen

    stepfen ScubaBoard Supporter ScubaBoard Supporter

    # of Dives: 200 - 499
    Location: Greece
    721
    532
    I can't really follow your logic here. Those 12000 daily tests are not random. They are to people who have symptoms or suspects (eg close contacts of confirmed cases). 30% of them turn out to be positive. That doesn't mean that 30% of the 300 or so million people of the country have covid already. Herd immunity (if there is such thing for Covid-19) is expected (not guaranteed) to happen once 60% of the whole community have developed antibodies. I hope they will not reach that point without a vaccine and that's because much worst things will happen before herd immunity:

    Jakarta lockdown aimed at preventing collapse of healthcare system
     
  6. drk5036

    drk5036 ScubaBoard Supporter ScubaBoard Supporter

    # of Dives: 100 - 199
    Location: Sapporo, Japan
    630
    518
    Right, there is some really wonky math going on here that's off base. There's no way they're 30% of their way to herd immunity. And given the long-term potential effects of COVID infection, it's really not a viable option. Just wait until the vaccine is out, get yourself inoculated, and then you don't have anything to worry about.
     
    shoredivr likes this.
  7. SeaWarden

    SeaWarden Contributor

    # of Dives: 200 - 499
    Location: Singapore
    144
    29
    It's actually most likely higher. But there arent any studies done at the moment, so I just took the numbers from google.
     
  8. lexvil

    lexvil ScubaBoard Sponsor ScubaBoard Sponsor

    # of Dives: 1,000 - 2,499
    Location: jamestown, ca.
    4,128
    3,997
    Where will you put the 9 to 12 million bodies as you move toward herd immunity?
     
  9. Barnaby'sDad

    Barnaby'sDad ScubaBoard Supporter ScubaBoard Supporter

    # of Dives: 50 - 99
    Location: Virginia
    1,190
    990
    Considering there have been documented cases of (a few) people testing positive twice (positive, then recovering and testing negative, and then a second positive test result), one has to wonder if herd immunity is really ever going to come into play with this.

    The argument by some people all along has been that people would get sick, develop antibodies, and then would be good going forward. Not saying that isn’t going to happen on a large scale at some point, but that given the possible long-term health implications for those that do survive, attempting to achieve herd immunity shouldn’t be the goal.
     
    RyanT, tridacna and lexvil like this.
  10. Darnold9999

    Darnold9999 Solo Diver

    # of Dives: 500 - 999
    Location: Victoria BC Canada
    2,564
    790
    There is no herd immunity to the common cold or influenza, both at least similar to covid, why would you think that covid would be different without evidence that there is such a thing?
     

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