Herd Immunity in Indonesia

Would you travel to Indonesia after they have accomplished herd immunity?

  • Yes

    Votes: 23 37.7%
  • No

    Votes: 38 62.3%

  • Total voters
    61

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This entire affair is well beyond the point of being ridiculous. Lots of interesting perspectives in this thread.

Two questions, if wearing masks is effective, why does it continue to spread and how is China held to account?

Masks are effective like birth control is effective. Effective does not mean it eliminates all likelihood of transmission, it means that it will mitigate some forms of transmission if used correctly. The virus spreads in droplet form, with are comparatively large particles and get captured by the mask. People who keep their nose above the mask reduce its effectiveness, people that wear the same mask all day, people that touch the outside of their mask and then don't wash their hands, PPE is an administrative control and if you do not follow the process correctly, you reduce or destroy its effectiveness.

Why would China be held to account? What could possibly be gained from doing so? I fully support an inquiry into the communication and coverups, but there is evidence of COVID-19 in France in December. The virus was out of China before the Chinese whistle-blower doctors realised it existed. Changing climate patterns has moved the migrating ranges of animals, increasing human populations has increased the interactions. This was only a matter of time, and it will happen again.

Yes, it's been posted already. The BMJ (British Medical Journal) is one of the world's top medical journals with a rigorous & transparent peer review process
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There's numerous studies from the Netherlands, Singapore, USA etc. And from the top immunologists of the world

This is heinously complex, these articles are so dumbed down they do zero justice to the work done to date and the work still to do. I had this all explained to me in great detail last weekend, I retained very little of it because I am not a microbiologist.

For the most part, vaccines are about antigens. If the body does not recognise the virus it does not trigger an immune response. The bulk of vaccines introduce the virus, or small bits of the virus, in a very controlled manner, so your body can fight the good fight and win. The stronger the infection, the stronger and longer lasting the immune response. As such there is a very real possibility that Singapore's high rates of asymptomatic infections is due to the SARS-COV-1 virus epidemic in SE Asia. There are possibly similar results in the middle east as a result of the MERS epidemic. An epidemiologist would be very careful of extrapolating this data too broadly, its multi-variate and many of those would be not transferable.

In order to reduce the risk of the virus actually harming you, but to artificially inflate your bodies response, the vaccine likely includes an adjuvant. This triggers and escalates your immune response without first having to identify the virus as a threat. The stronger the virus dose in the vaccine, the more testing the vaccine must go through, and the less suitable it is for someone that might be vulnerable. Its a game of biochemistry, and the law of unintended consequences is a major factor.

Hence vaccines like the S-Spike vaccine being developed at University of Queensland, which attacks the spike proteins that the virus uses to latch onto your healthy cells so it can replicate itself. The Oxford-Astra Zeneca vaccine is a RNA vaccine, so they have altered the virus so it looks exactly like the full strength virus. The alteration takes away its ability to replicate, or make you sick, something to make it safe but to maximise your immune response. One thing they appear to have learned is that the younger the child, the less prone to the virus. It appears that cells dividing impairs the viruses ability to latch onto healthy cells and replicate. Hence the reason school closures have been very inconsistent, children are not vector.


When I read that article, it says 92% get a mild form of the disease, not that they are asymptomatic. The only person using the word "asymptomatic" in the article is the journalist. The fact that only 7.5% of known COVID-19 patients received acute care is not evidence of no symptoms. Its not evidence of much at all.

That links to another article with 80% asymptomatic, which lists loss of taste as a commonly reported 'other' symptom. Loss of smell and loss of taste is a COVID-19 symptom. The explanation is people report as ill due to loss of taste, unaware this is a COVID-19 symptom, therefore they are asymptomatic; even though it is a known and well-attributed COVID-19 symptom.

Its pretty easy to argue both sides of the COVID-19 response. None of these arguments will change the response. If you want to effect change, you'll need to do it at the ballot box next time you get the opportunity. Until then this is our reality, whether we agree with it or not.
 
Its pretty easy to argue both sides of the COVID-19 response. None of these arguments will change the response. If you want to effect change, you'll need to do it at the ballot box next time you get the opportunity. Until then this is our reality, whether we agree with it or not.

I agree, it all comes down to politics

I guess for now, us divers/tourists & dive operators in Indo, can start to hope & plan for the bright future
 
China handled covid-19 very well. Their economy and way of life has been a great success. Perhaps people can take a page out of their book

They've also run all the foreign journalists out of town, so its hard to be sure. It is clear the crematoriums in Wuhan were running 24/7 for a few months, they were bringing in workers all over China to run them. The capacity is reported at 5k bodies per day, for something like reported 83k deaths, the numbers are flawed.

The fact that a few of my local industrial suppliers have a few empty shelves and things on backorder out to November indicates something in China is amiss. Perhaps they diverted their manufacturers to produce COVID supplies like ventilators or PPE, or they have shutdown more than they are letting on. Workshop stools is one item, go figure. Fibreglass resin is another that had massive delays, though I think that one has come through now.

The recent outbreaks are evidence even with the most draconian measures, its an ongoing challenge. It also indicates that whatever actually happened in Wuhan, the Chinese are absolutely committed to not letting it happen elsewhere. They have not pursued a herd immunity strategy, which doesn't mean its a bad strategy, it simply indicates the Chinese see more merit in suppression.
 
Australia's covid-19 strategy is suppression also, not elimination

Elimination requires a vaccine, so of course the current strategy is suppression. Given the types of vaccines, the efficacy of different vaccines, and the level of vaccination required for herd immunity, elimination is some distance away. Best case it will eliminate SARS-COV-2 and knock the sharp edges of a few other coronaviruses. Worst case it'll be the Polio of our generation.

My wife's aunt has had a lifetime limp from polio. We'll hear people with lifetime coughs or reduced lung capacity. Perhaps are when we're in a nursing home the standard feature will be oxygen bottle trolleys, or the most common form of 'death by natural causes' in the elderly will be respiratory failure.
 
Elimination requires a vaccine

Even with a vaccine Australia will not change to elimination strategy

The chief medical officer and the Prime Minister said the virus isn't going away, it's here to stay, and we can't live in a risk free society
 
Even with a vaccine Australia will not change to elimination strategy

The chief medical officer and the Prime Minister said the virus isn't going away, it's here to stay, and we can't live in a risk free society

Quote them on it, but until there are multiple vaccines and longer term efficacy studies, they are only committing to reality. You cannot eliminate a mutating virus, but if the S-Spike vaccine works like the inventors suggest it should, the mutations are irrelevant because the virus cannot latch. It's new technology, they just don't have the long-term knowledge to be definitive and what they say gets held against them forever.

If the RNA vaccine is the go, there will likely be an annual shot to pick up the mutations. Just like the flu shot, the virus has not gone away, we live with it, its a really significant killer, but the shots are available. It'd be interesting to see where the current reproduction rates are, but seasonal influenza is R2 and SARS-COV-2 was R4, so an annual one-shot combined vaccine for $20 would accept the virus is here to stay but completely mitigate its effects so that the new normal for life includes random, last-minute travel. You might need your immunisation book with your passport, but if you've every returned from South America you have that anyway.
 
You might need your immunisation book with your passport, but if you've every returned from South America you have that anyway.

I've been to South America 3 times, and I've never needed an immunisation book

Quote them on it, but until there are multiple vaccines and longer term efficacy studies, they are only committing to reality. You cannot eliminate a mutating virus, but if the S-Spike vaccine works like the inventors suggest it should, the mutations are irrelevant because the virus cannot latch. Its new technology, they just don't have the long-term knowledge to be definitive and what they say gets held against them forever.

If the RNA vaccine is the go, there will likely be an annual shot to pick up the mutations. Just like the flu shot, the virus has not gone away, we live with it, its a really significant killer, but the shots are available. It'd be interesting to see where the current reproduction rates are, but seasonal influenza is R2 and SARS-COV-2 was R4, so an annual one-shot combined vaccine for $20 would accept the virus is here to stay but completely mitigate its effects so that the new normal for life includes random, last-minute travel. You might need your immunisation book with your passport, but if you've every returned from South America you have that anyway.

A vaccine will go a long way into alleviating people's fears, which will be good for the current situation
 
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