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Herd Immunity in Indonesia

Discussion in 'Indonesia' started by SeaWarden, Sep 10, 2020.

Would you travel to Indonesia after they have accomplished herd immunity?

  1. Yes

    23 vote(s)
    37.7%
  2. No

    38 vote(s)
    62.3%
  1. Shasta_man

    Shasta_man Loggerhead Turtle

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    Did not watch the video yet, but I don't think many people realize that herd immunity just means that transmission slows to uninfected people because there are less of them, but to get there means many already got the virus and given the scale, as lexvil pointed out, millions of people die to get there.

    I think people tend to think long term cure when they hear vaccine, but as pointed out, vaccine can be short term like the flu shot or longer term like polio. If it's short term, it's still possible to get it and be subject to the coin toss of dying from it.

    The Jakarta article link was enlightening as well as SeaWardens comments. As even our NIH director mentioned the other day, politicizing public health issues and lack of positive leadership is blocking effective treatment or handling. It's also clear that we are reaping the benefits of years of idiots chipping away at the confidence in everything so people don't know who to trust and are ready to believe any crazy thing. We thought most people knew they were nuts but obviously more people listened than we thought. Somebody's SIG on here says something like "Don't underestimate the stupidity of people in large groups."
     
    acidrush and chillyinCanada like this.
  2. scuba2you

    scuba2you Angel Fish

    # of Dives: 2,500 - 4,999
    Location: Bangkok, Thailand
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    Not to be off topic but I don’t think herd immunity is really the issue traveling to this part of the world. The main problem is, if you do end up with Covid in a remote location, you will have a difficult time getting to a quality medical care facility. What care you do get will be in a government facility which is never a good situation. With good hygiene the odds are in your favor, especially if herd immunity is reached. However, in the end it will end up a game of roulette......
     
    chillyinCanada and Hoyden like this.
  3. SeaWarden

    SeaWarden Nassau Grouper

    # of Dives: 200 - 499
    Location: Singapore
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    Currently, we test all our workers on a regular basis, using PCR swab test. But the plan is to also test all the divers coming into the resort in case they caught it on the way

    Currently, we test all our workers on a regular basis, using PCR swab test. But the plan is to also test all the divers coming into the resort in case they caught it on the way to the resort. If they caught it, it's better that we found it at the airport then a few days later when the symptoms appear on a remote island.

    In case you were wondering, we don't pick people's nose, we just as them to spit into a glass.. using the yale protocol.
     
  4. DownUnderwater Dan

    DownUnderwater Dan Barracuda

    # of Dives: I just don't log dives
    Location: Indonesia
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    I think we are a lot closer to global herd immunity than we know it.
    92% of the millions of covid infected in India are asymptomatic, in the UK 78% asymptomatic also. The emerging science is showing that some asymptomatic don't even produce any detectable covid antibodies. And in some studies show up to 90% asymptomatic people show a T-cell immune response.
    All global pandemic planning to covid is based on covid-19 being a NOVEL VIRUS, with the assumption that it was impossible for anyone to have pre-existing immunity based on antibodies. But a general consensus is building amongst the top immunologists & virologists in the world that a large part of the population already have T-cell specific immune responses to fight covid from previous exposure to common cold & other coronaviruses. The SIGNIFICANCE of this?

    In 2009 the WHO & CDC was forced to change its pandemic modelling for Swine Flu based on the evidence of leading Immunologist Alessandro Sette that people were coping better because of pre-existing T-cell exposure to other forms of that virus. Alessandro Sette has made similar findings in regards to covid-19.

    The data forced a change in views at WHO and CDC, from an assumption before 2009 that most people “will have no immunity to the pandemic virus” 16 to one that acknowledged that “the vulnerability of a population to a pandemic virus is related in part to the level of pre-existing immunity to the virus.” 17 But by 2020 it seems that lesson had been forgotten.

    Keeping in line with this thread, because I don't want to argue about covid on an Indonesian scuba forum. I think a vaccine may play a part in travel returning to Indonesia. But I think a shift in pandemic planning based on emerging science will be more significant in travel returning to normal much sooner than we know it

    Is Covid’s end closer than we think? | Letters
     
  5. stepfen

    stepfen ScubaBoard Supporter ScubaBoard Supporter

    # of Dives: 200 - 499
    Location: Greece
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    Scientists know for at least few months now that the vast majority of people infected are asymptomatic but what has this to do with herd immunity? Keep in mind that scientist also know that asymptomatic people do spread the disease.

    Remember herd immunity (if there will be such thing for this virus) is not a hard limit - say before 80% the virus will spread free and once at 80.1% it will stop spreading. Herd immunity means that the more people develop immunity the more the spread of the virus will slow down. Slow down - not stop. It will continue spreading but with slower and slower pace.

    Signs of slowing down will be apparent as we will be getting close to the herd immunity.
    Do you see any signs of slowing down???
    You might, but I don't (that's just yesterday):
    Indonesia sees record single-day case spike of 4,168
     
    chillyinCanada likes this.
  6. DownUnderwater Dan

    DownUnderwater Dan Barracuda

    # of Dives: I just don't log dives
    Location: Indonesia
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    Good point, I should of elaborated further. If the vast majority of people infected with covid show little to no symptoms, it means their bodies although infected, cope with the virus quite well. If the virus is still spreading but 92% of the infected don't require any medical treatment, as in India's case, surely a remodeling of the pandemic planning is in order, evidenced by the fact that covid does not present a serious or mortal danger to the greater public.

    Immunity for covid-19 is only measured by antibodies being present, but all studies show covid-19 antibodies only last a few months at the very most.
    If immunity is measured by the T-cell immune response to covid-19 which renders an infection to not produce symptoms, then this would be half the world's population at the very least with some form of protection
     
  7. stepfen

    stepfen ScubaBoard Supporter ScubaBoard Supporter

    # of Dives: 200 - 499
    Location: Greece
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    The problem is not with the ones who don't need treatment. The problem is with the rest that need it. Even if 0.1% (figure came out of my mind - I think in practice this is higher) of those infected need hospitalization for countries like Indonesia or India figures get huge. Do the math.
    I leave the discussion somewhere here. Time will tell and up to now it has been proven that things are going downhill - not as much as it was feared in the beginning but still this decease is in the increase as we speak.
    Hope for the best
     
    Indah, KenGordon and chillyinCanada like this.
  8. DownUnderwater Dan

    DownUnderwater Dan Barracuda

    # of Dives: I just don't log dives
    Location: Indonesia
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    The World is at it's most technologically & scientifically advanced stage it's ever been, @ present. Surely there's a better way to protect the small percentage of vulnerable people than to stop the world
     
  9. chillyinCanada

    chillyinCanada ScubaBoard Supporter Staff Member ScubaBoard Supporter

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    There are physical consequences other than death. These are being found even in those who were asymptomatic.
     
    Searcaigh likes this.
  10. DownUnderwater Dan

    DownUnderwater Dan Barracuda

    # of Dives: I just don't log dives
    Location: Indonesia
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    We're human beings, not cockroaches. We can't stop every disease or virus in the cycle of life, nor can we live with our heads cut off or survive a nuclear holocaust
     

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