Is it possible to travel responsibly (during a pandemic)?

[sabbe]

Funny thing -- my Facebook "on this day feed" has been showing me my impressions from the beginning of the pandemic and its restrictions, when none of us knew it would drag on this long. I had forgotten that the US Surgeon General said that we could beat it in 15 days if we did everything we were supposed to. I forgot that my county responded by immediately locking down for 18 days, with the option to extend. I commented then that you knew they would indeed find a reason to extend.

What actually happened to the 15 days the Surgeon General mentioned? The reply is always the same: "It's because people aren't obeying the restrictions" -- even when I do not observe that to be the case.

Yes, and all we originally had to do was wash our hands and not touch our face.

If they’d been honest up front, that companies are going to be shut down for two years a lot of small businesses would have just folded rather than try to survive on savings. I can’t imagine what it’s like to be a restaurant owner.

Local dive shop is now bumping trips into 2022 that were always bumped from 2020 into 2021.

Sam

 

[drrich2]

From the AMA Morning Rounds e-mail this morning:

"CDC identifies about 5,800 breakthrough cases of COVID-19 infection among Americans who have been fully vaccinated
The Wall Street Journal (4/15, Whelan, Subscription Publication) reports the CDC has identified about 5,800 breakthrough cases of COVID-19 infection among more than 66 million Americans who have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19. Based on this data, the CDC says breakthrough cases of infection occur in 0.008% of people who have been fully vaccinated.

CNN (4/15, Tinker, Fox) reports of the 5,800 breakthrough cases, 74 have died and 396 required hospitalization. The researchers also found that 65% of breakthrough cases occurred in women, and 29% of the cases were asymptomatic."

If we round up 0.008 to 0.01% to make the math easier, 0.01% is 1 in 10,000, so at this point (note: rates may change if immunity wanes over time since vaccination), a fully vaccinated American looks to have a less than 1 in 10,000 chance of coming down with COVID-19, if so it's 29% likely to be asymptomatic, the odds of hospitalization (396/5,800x100) = ~ 6.83% and the odds of death look to be 74/5,800x100 = ~ 1.28%.

If I ran the math right. Given where we're at in the vaccination cycle, with an emphasis on the elderly (high risk for serious complications) and health care workers (high risk for exposure), etc..., I imagine these numbers may change with time. And not everyone who's been vaccinated has been exposed, so the risk of getting sick may not hold if active COVID-19 patients cough on you!

My takeaway is that, being fully vaccinated myself, I'm highly unlikely to develop COVID-19 (if my exposure risk matches the U.S. mainstream), and if I do I'll probably get through decently but there are substantial risks.

In other news, from that same AMA e-mail:

"Pfizer CEO says people will “likely” need COVID-19 booster shots
The Hill (4/15, Coleman) reports Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said people will “likely” need a third dose of the COVID-19 vaccine six months to a year after receiving the first two doses. Bourla also “suggested vaccinations for coronavirus could be needed every year.” During an AMA webinar, Peter Marks, the director of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, said, “It is possible, we don’t know for sure, that somewhere at nine months, a year, we may need to have boosters, but we’ll get a better sense of that, probably with each month we’ll get more certainty about when that might be necessary.”"

 

[peeweediver]

Since the two main vaccines claimed 95% efficiency (not 100%), having such a small percentage of infections is a good sign, though the raw number is eye-popping. Sad about any deaths, however. As to boosters, maybe I'm just a negative Nellie, but I always assumed this would have to be a yearly vaccination. In the US, we'll never hit 70% vaccinated due to way too many folks refusing for whatever reason. So, yearly flu shot and yearly Covid shot. For travel, the question will be what the destination feels comfortable with in terms of requirements. Will being vaccinated be enough or will pre-arrival testing be with us for years and years. At a certain point, if the destination is open, each of us can make a decision based on our risk tolerance and keeping the health of those in that country in mind and protected by our actions...continue masks, distance, etc. . We have not traveled yet to protect us and those we might come in contact with. Have a driving trip to a national park planned this year, then Galapagos in January. As cases rise again, who knows what will actually be open then.

 

[Hoag]

Since the two main vaccines claimed 95% efficiency (not 100%), having such a small percentage of infections is a good sign, though the raw number is eye-popping. Sad about any deaths, however. As to boosters, maybe I'm just a negative Nellie, but I always assumed this would have to be a yearly vaccination. In the US, we'll never hit 70% vaccinated due to way too many folks refusing for whatever reason. So, yearly flu shot and yearly Covid shot. For travel, the question will be what the destination feels comfortable with in terms of requirements. Will being vaccinated be enough or will pre-arrival testing be with us for years and years. At a certain point, if the destination is open, each of us can make a decision based on our risk tolerance and keeping the health of those in that country in mind and protected by our actions...continue masks, distance, etc. . We have not traveled yet to protect us and those we might come in contact with. Have a driving trip to a national park planned this year, then Galapagos in January. As cases rise again, who knows what will actually be open then.

I actually would not be surprised to see an annual "cocktail" of the Flu & COVID-19 vaccines in a single shot at some point in the future.

 

[Joneill]

I actually would not be surprised to see an annual "cocktail" of the Flu & COVID-19 vaccines in a single shot at some point in the future.

Yup - they are working furiously on “universal” mRNA vaccines!

 

[Joneill]

My takeaway is that, being fully vaccinated myself, I'm highly unlikely to develop COVID-19 (if my exposure risk matches the U.S. mainstream), and if I do I'll probably get through decently but there are substantial risks.

I’d say that the vaccine removes the substantial risks as data suggests vaccination pretty much prevents serious illness or death.

Of course, there are always exceptions, but otherwise healthy people with no co-morbidities should not worry once vaccinated (in my opinion).

 

[wnissen]

Yup - they are working furiously on “universal” mRNA vaccines!

Yeah, that would be the biggest silver lining to come out of this. Not having to pick the strains and grow them in chicken eggs months before. "Just" sequence and replicate.

 

[Centrals]

Choose the place very carefully eg. Brazil and India.

 

[Manatee Diver]

I thought the whole Real ID thing was a conservative thing...

Real ID act, like most post-9/11 anti-terror laws, was largely bipartisan. In fact it passed the senate unanimously.

 

[tursiops]

Real ID act, like most post-9/11 anti-terror laws, was largely bipartisan. In fact it passed the senate unanimously.

Well, sort of. It passed the House in 2005 as a standalone bill, but was not even dealt with by the Senate. It got attached to an emergency military spending bill as a rider; the defense spending bill got a unanimous vote in the Senate.