JFS
Contributor
Here is details on plans to gradually reopen activities in Quintana Roo. Boats will be allowed 40% occupancy. As things gradually get better, the numbers of participants will increase.
Quintana Roo Plan For Reopening
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JFS
Contributor
This is the plan that is released. The whole state is red still so I have doubts about reopening for diving on June 7-8? Construction workers are allowed to work now so it is a gradual phase that will be done over time.
nwflyboy
Contributor
First assumption -- things will get better....eventually -- seems like a good bet (the key word there is "eventually"). The second part -- that things will continue to get better as things open up -- is the big question. Evidence from other places suggests this is not always the case.
It's all going to depend on how people behave, to what extent they adhere strictly to the safety guidelines, and there's some luck involved, too. I'm not there and can't see how well the average Cozumeleño tends to follow the safety guidelines (social distancing, wearing masks, etc.). But the virus does not ignore when people skirt the rules, shrug off the truth, and cut corners (see plenty of evidence of that in the USA, UK, Brazil, etc.). I hope the folks there are diligent and take things seriously.
On point. It seems to me that the assumption that infections will follow a bell shaped Gaussian curve and decline (and continue to decline) after a peak is reached is based on the behavior of other very different diseases with a good dollop of wishful thinking. For example, when will it be safe for tens of thousands of people to gather for a sporting event or concert when a single person with COVID-19 in the crowd can infect hundreds and start the whole thing over again?
nwflyboy
Contributor
Here's what can happens when you "open up", even with the best tools and practices in place...
Greece, by most reasonable assessments, has done a stellar job with the virus. They locked down early and hard, and remained disciplined throughout, despite the big economic hit they were taking (and it's arguable that with all the years of economic crises Greece has gone through, they were perhaps the European country least prepared to deal with an economic shutdown). Still, they followed the science, listened to the experts, stayed the course, got their numbers down, and appear to have come out the other side in good shape, with an admirable record. Here's a blog post that summarizes it pretty well: 100 days of coronavirus - what Greece's approach can teach us.
Greece recently announced they would open up to international tourism. The doors are supposed to swing wide open on June 15th. A small number of initial flights started arriving 2 days ago. Guess what happened: one of the very first flights delivered a bunch of COVID-positive tourists to Athens.
Turns out that Greece is testing every arriving passenger (which seems prudent to me, although I'd rather see passengers tested before they board their flights). On June 2, one of the very first flights was Qatar Airways flight 203, from Doha to Athens. Arriving passengers were given a COVID test upon deplaning. 12 of the 91 passengers tested positive. Those 12 passengers will be quarantined for 14 days. Other passengers on the flight will be "isolated" for 7 days (not sure of the details) then will be re-tested.
You can read about it here: Covid-19: Greece quarantines all passengers from Qatar flight
What's not clear to me is how long the time was between the on-arrival COVID test and when the results were available, and - most critically - where those passengers were during that interval. If they were out and about, they probably were spreading the virus....which could lead to all sorts of bad things that nobody wants (including having to go back to lockdown again to stop further spread).
Greece seems to be handling things well (they also banned all Qatar Airlines flights until June15), and has clearly made considerable resources available to monitor tourists and respond as needed. To me it begs the question of how other countries - who have not managed the pandemic so well, and who have more limited resources for passenger monitoring (and more limited health care infrastructure available even in the best of times) - will do. It's going to be interesting to watch the numbers (and other indicators) as Mexico starts to open up.
Personally, as much as I want to go diving again, and as much as I'd like to help the good folks in Cozumel with my tourist dollars, it does not seem responsible to risk leisure travel to anywhere in Mexico right now. We in the US have our own messes we need to clean up before we bring our messes to other places that are still struggling very much with their own. Just my 200 pesos.
Greece, by most reasonable assessments, has done a stellar job with the virus. They locked down early and hard, and remained disciplined throughout, despite the big economic hit they were taking (and it's arguable that with all the years of economic crises Greece has gone through, they were perhaps the European country least prepared to deal with an economic shutdown). Still, they followed the science, listened to the experts, stayed the course, got their numbers down, and appear to have come out the other side in good shape, with an admirable record. Here's a blog post that summarizes it pretty well: 100 days of coronavirus - what Greece's approach can teach us.
Greece recently announced they would open up to international tourism. The doors are supposed to swing wide open on June 15th. A small number of initial flights started arriving 2 days ago. Guess what happened: one of the very first flights delivered a bunch of COVID-positive tourists to Athens.
Turns out that Greece is testing every arriving passenger (which seems prudent to me, although I'd rather see passengers tested before they board their flights). On June 2, one of the very first flights was Qatar Airways flight 203, from Doha to Athens. Arriving passengers were given a COVID test upon deplaning. 12 of the 91 passengers tested positive. Those 12 passengers will be quarantined for 14 days. Other passengers on the flight will be "isolated" for 7 days (not sure of the details) then will be re-tested.
You can read about it here: Covid-19: Greece quarantines all passengers from Qatar flight
What's not clear to me is how long the time was between the on-arrival COVID test and when the results were available, and - most critically - where those passengers were during that interval. If they were out and about, they probably were spreading the virus....which could lead to all sorts of bad things that nobody wants (including having to go back to lockdown again to stop further spread).
Greece seems to be handling things well (they also banned all Qatar Airlines flights until June15), and has clearly made considerable resources available to monitor tourists and respond as needed. To me it begs the question of how other countries - who have not managed the pandemic so well, and who have more limited resources for passenger monitoring (and more limited health care infrastructure available even in the best of times) - will do. It's going to be interesting to watch the numbers (and other indicators) as Mexico starts to open up.
Personally, as much as I want to go diving again, and as much as I'd like to help the good folks in Cozumel with my tourist dollars, it does not seem responsible to risk leisure travel to anywhere in Mexico right now. We in the US have our own messes we need to clean up before we bring our messes to other places that are still struggling very much with their own. Just my 200 pesos.
So where can we go to check on this? I have a trip to Tulum scheduled for July.
It would be very nice if there a source you could go to find out when things will be back to some semblance of normal, but since no one really knows at this point how things are going to play out, there isn't. The best advice I can give is to be patient and not take stupid chances with your life and health for the sake of a vacation.
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