Tropical Depression 26W Warning Micronesia --Forecast Possible Cat 2 Typhoon by Sat

[DandyDon]

Kev, I hope you safe in Australia. See looks like she is going to be a Cat-4 landing in the PIs...!!

 

[Kevrumbo]

Yeah Don, I'm finally out-of-the-way down here in Vanuatu. . .

I remember watching CNN from my room at the Sea Passion Hotel on Malakal the late evening into early morning 29-30Oct, horrified as Hurricane Sandy blasted through the US east coast (New York City; Atlantic City & the whole eastern seaboard; Appalachian Mtns), and wondering about the last time a typhoon came through Palau. . .

Now I'll be watching from Santo/Vanuatu as one of my most favorite dive destinations in the world takes a direct hit from a Cat 4 Typhoon over a month later this weekend into Monday (and the Philippines as well come mid-week).

Guam Color enhanced Infrared Image Loop - Satellite Services Division - Office of Satellite Data Processing and Distribution

 

[DandyDon]

Having never been to that part of the world, I have little understanding where places are in comparison to others, and looking at your linked map or my updating map in post 2, gets confusing still at times. Of course I have heard of Truk, Chuuk Lagoon, and Palau - but not Koror, which I now see is the most populated island in Palau. The map below of the area gives me a better understand of where the typhoon is in comparison to the weather maps.

Looks like Palau is going to take a direct hit Sunday night. (Local time is 12:25am Sunday) I hope those still there and the islands themselves weather the storm well.

 

[Kevrumbo]

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 012336
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON BOPHA (26W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 AM CHST SUN DEC 2 2012

...INTENSE TYPHOON BOPHA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD
KOROR...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR
PEOPLE IN KOROR AND NEARBY ISLANDS INCLUDING ANGAUR...PELELIU...
BABELDAOB AND KAYANGEL AND SONSOROL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND
FOR NGULU ATOLL IN YAP STATE.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN THE
REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NGULU IN YAP STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SONSOROL IN THE
REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

A TYPHOON WARNING MEANS THAT DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS AND THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING WINDS
GREATER THAN 73 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING SUSTAINED
WINDS GREATER THAN 73 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48
HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON BOPHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 6.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 138.2 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 165 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NGULU
240 MILES SOUTH OF YAP
275 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR
280 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KAYANGEL AND
415 MILES EAST OF SONSOROL.

TYPHOON BOPHA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AND HAS INCREASED FORWARD
SPEED TO 15 MPH. TYPHOON BOPHA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS SAME
GENERAL MOTION THROUGH TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO 145 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TYPHOON BOPHA IS PASSING SOUTH OF NGULU. BOPHA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES BOPHA BETWEEN
THE ISLANDS OF ANGAUR AND KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU...WHICH
INCLUDES PELELIU...KOROR AND BABELDAOB. THESE AREAS ARE AT GREAT
RISK FOR DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND WAVES. THE TYPHOON IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A HIGH-END CATEGORY 4 SUPER TYPHOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AS
HIGH AS 150 MPH PRIOR TO REACHING THESE ISLANDS.

...KOROR FROM ANGAUR TO NORTHERN BABELDAOB...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SEEK SHELTER IN A CONCRETE STRUCTURE AT LEAST 25 FEET ABOVE SEA
LEVEL. MOST WOOD AND METAL STRUCTURES THAT ARE AFFECTED WITH THESE
WINDS WILL SUFFER EXTENSIVE DAMAGE OR COULD BE COMPLETELY DESTROYED.
PREPARATIONS FOR TYPHOON-FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION
THIS MORNING. TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS FOR
LOCATIONS FROM KAYANGEL IN THE NORTH TO ANGAUR IN THE SOUTH. THE
LAST MAJOR TYPHOON TO HIT PALAU WAS SUPER TYPHOON MIKE IN 1990 AND
IT PASSED NEAR KAYANGEL...SPARING KOROR AND MUCH OF PALAU. DO NOT
UNDERESTIMATE THE DESTRUCTIVE POTENTIAL OF TYPHOON-STRENGTH WINDS.
KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST BULLETINS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. HAVE ENOUGH
FOOD AND WATER TO LAST SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THE STORM. POWER WILL
LIKELY BE OUT FOR SOME TIME. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT ANY
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS
OF YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE.

...WIND INFORMATION...
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH NEAR
SHOWERS THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
DAMAGING WINDS COULD LAST UNTIL NOON MONDAY. FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF
THE EYE...WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AS BOPHA
APPROACHES...FROM THE EAST AS IT PASSES AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST AFTER
IT PASSES. FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE EYE...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHWEST AS BOPHA PASSES. NEAR THE
EYE. WIND WILL BE VERY STRONG AND THE DIRECTION WILL BE VARIABLE. DO
NOT VENTURE FAR FROM SHELTERS IF THE EYE PASSES OVERHEAD. IF THE
STORM STAYS ON ITS CURRENT TRACK... PELELIU AND KOROR WILL BE NEAR
OR IN THE EYE. NEAR THE EYE...SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE AS HIGH AS
150 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 175 MPH.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
HAZARDOUS SURF OF 8 TO 10 FEET ALONG COASTAL SHORES IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 12 TO 16 FEET OR HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE
TO OVER 25 FEET IN SOME LOCATIONS. INUNDATION COULD EXCEED 20 FEET
IN SOME LOCATIONS.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY IN LOCALLY HEAVY
SHOWERS. RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND MONDAY WITH 8 TO 10
INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LIKELY. FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/data/GUM/HLSPQ1

 

[DandyDon]

Looks like she has left Palau, and the news is not bad: Typhoon Bopha: Palau clear, Philippines bracing | ABC Radio Australia

"It was headed right towards Palau and at the last minute it turned to the west and fortunately went south of them," Derek Williams, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Guam, told ABC Radio Australia's Pacific Beat.

Still looks like she will be a Cat-4 landing on the island of Mindanao, with a population over 21 million, as well as a recent history of civil disturbances.

 

[Kevrumbo]

. . .And hope & pray for the best!

Guam - The island of Palau is in recovery mode from Supertyphoon Bopha, but the good news is they were spared the brunt of the storm as it passed farther south than expected. There are no reported deaths or major injuries but they did receive some damage.
"Well they were very fortunate yesterday morning it was headed directly towards Koror with winds of Supertyphoon strength 150 miles per hour and around noon yesterday it veered a little bit to the left it turned a little bit south and maintained that course all through last night,” said National Weather Service Senior Forecaster Mike Middlebrook. The NWS forecaster says this kept Supertyphoon Bopha's strongest winds south of the southern Palauan island of Anguar. However it did cause some damage.
Republic of Palau Consul General Jeff Kenty says that although there wasn't much destruction in Koror there is some damage. "As of now they are still doing damage assessment throughout Koror and they haven't gone to outer islands like Peliliu and Anguar so they don't know the extent of damages down there, but in Koror there is no power yet because most lines are down so they're trying to see how much of the damage was sustained by the power lines and all that stuff,” said Kenty adding, "most stores are still in tact and everything is okay in Koror."
Kenty says there were no reports of fatalities or major injuries. The airport is still in tact and in good condition and should be ready for operation soon. Middlebrook says that Koror airport recorded a peak gust of about 70 miles an hour at around 11p.m. last night. He says sustained winds may have been anywhere between 20 and 40 miles per hour. "Further south reports on Peliliu island and Anguar they may have sustained more damage,” said Middlebrook adding, "Anguar I would estimate probably 90 to a 100 maybe 110 miles per hour briefly so I'm sure there's been some damage down there."
In fact Kenty says there were some reports of damage in some of the southern islands but mostly due to flooding. "Three states Peliliu, Ngiwal and Melekeok had water surge in land so they don't know they still have yet to assess the damage that was caused by the surge of water,” explained Kenty. . .

VIDEO: Palau Spared Bopha's Full Fury; No Fatalities Reported, Power Outages, Flooding, Homes Damaged

Guam - In what seems a miracle of mercy, Palau has been spared the full wrath of Typhoon Bopha.
While it wailed and howled and sent piercing noises through the trees and outside of our windows, at the very last minute the Typhoon turned west and its path jogged south of Palau. Early reports have the Typhoon passing more than 50 miles south of Koror, the nation’s city-centre. Surprisingly despite its thunderous whistle, there was very little rain.

It is early morning here in Palau and as of yet, it has been difficult to communicate within Palau because the phone lines are down. The power is also out. Third hand reports tell us that the sea has washed into the shoreline on the east side of Babeldoab and Kayangel. Many houses on the northeastern coast of Palau’s largest island of Babeldoab have been destroyed completely, but at least two remain. No reports yet from the islands of Anguar and Peleliu. Damage assessment is ongoing.


We took a drive through downtown Koror. There were police on loudspeakers telling everyone to go back in their homes and to clear the road. The police deserve an applaud for their obvious diligence both during the Typhoon — in patrolling the neighborhoods and clearing the roads through the night — and afterwards in trying to keep the public orderly.

. . .Storms this strong do not usually occur this far south because the coriolis force, which helps storms spin up, is weak at such latitudes. Bopha became a typhoon just 3.8 degrees above the equator says the UK Met Office. Masters writes on his blog that this is farthest south a typhoon has ever been recorded in the Western Pacific.

History will reflect that on December 3, 2012, Typhoon Bopha grazed Palau. This storm, like all others, has passed.

http://www.pacificnewscenter.com/in...u-still-damaged&catid=45:guam-news&Itemid=156

Thoughts & prayers now for the Philippines. . .

 

[mcliffy2]

Well they were very fortunate yesterday morning it was headed directly towards Koror with winds of Supertyphoon strength 150 miles per hour and around noon yesterday it veered a little bit to the left it turned a little bit south and maintained that course all through last night,” said National Weather Service Senior Forecaster Mike Middlebrook. The NWS forecaster says this kept Supertyphoon Bopha's strongest winds south of the southern Palauan island of Anguar. However it did cause some damage.
Republic of Palau Consul General Jeff Kenty says that although there wasn't much destruction in Koror there is some damage. "As of now they are still doing damage assessment throughout Koror and they haven't gone to outer islands like Peliliu and Anguar so they don't know the extent of damages down there, but in Koror there is no power yet because most lines are down so they're trying to see how much of the damage was sustained by the power lines and all that stuff,” said Kenty adding, "most stores are still in tact and everything is okay in Koror."

I was supposed to be in Palau right now (arriving Sunday night), but was informed of the storm on the way out the door to the airport by Fish n Fins, and turned around.

Sounds like mostly good news as far as the storm turning south. However, it does sound like it passed right over some of the best dive sites in the south (Blue Corner, German Channel, etc.). Hope that everyone there is ok and that the reefs in the area had minimal damage.

 

[DandyDon]

Now Cat-5. 1:39am Tuesday (PHT) - Time in Mindanao, Philippines

 

[DandyDon]

Whoa! After hitting Mindanao, an island unaccustomed to cyclones hits and killing hundreds - I thought she was headed out to sea to die or at least lose power before hitting mainland. Instead she turned north, built to Cat-3 - and now is going to take a swing at Luzon! That island is more experienced with typhoons, but the government is already burdened with rescues on the first island. It's 6:50am Saturday in Manila and it looks like she will be hitting the island until Tuesday.

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