Tulamben, Mount Agung, Current Situation...

[matts1w]

Just woke up to see things have escalated a bunch around Mount Agung and evacuations are underway. I guess I need to start thinking about this as I was to be in Tulamben in about three weeks.

Bali people….what say you? Time to make new plans?

 

[Midget]

All resorts are closed and the villages have evacuated to safe zones.
The authorities say an eruption is
imminent.
How big is it gonna blow?
Seems to be anyone's guess. No one knows.

 

[billt4sf]

Just woke up to see things have escalated a bunch around Mount Agung and evacuations are underway. I guess I need to start thinking about this as I was to be in Tulamben in about three weeks.

Bali people….what say you? Time to make new plans?

I really don't know, but in the presence of uncertainty, I take the safer path if I have a choice.

It would be one thing to be in a disaster zone in a developed country, and quite another in a developing country where I don't speak the language.

I suspect the most likely outcome is ash and delayed flights -- or nothing at all. And if there is a large amount of ash, it could well effect flights to many other islands.

- Bill

 

[billt4sf]

All resorts are closed and the villages have evacuated to safe zones.
The authorities say an eruption is
imminent.
How big is it gonna blow?
Seems to be anyone's guess. No one knows.

Which authority says an eruption is "imminent"?

 

[Wingy]

Almost all of the geoscience agencies Bill. No way to gauge size of an eruption - Geoscience Indonesia and Geoscience Australia know what they are doing - Agung is probably the most monitored and studied volcano in that neck of the woods. As far as being stuck in a third world country during a disaster I have to say Bali has risen to the challenge before with the help of its neighbouring countries - Australia included. I'd also like to give a big thumbs up to the dive shops and hotels co operating during evacuations - just reading Villa Albas FB update - Kudos to the owners and staff of Villa Alba and Two fish. Well done guys.

Agung may go back to sleep for another 50 or 5000 years...volcanos like mystery...however, I'd say there will be some activity of some sort shortly

 

[xmass-Eve]

You could be lucky and be stranded in Indo for some days/weeks as there will be no flights in and out. Great diving in Lombok. The hammerheads should still be around the Magnet!

 

[Scubamat]

I'm there in 6 weeks have confirmed my dive plans yet was going to do a week in Bali and a week in Gili. Just hoping the associated quakes don't seem liberty deeper and that it doesn't have a big eruption. Last news I heard was expecting an eruption in the next few days.

 

[FishCity]

Some recent reports say tremors becoming shallower a bad sign.
Last-minute evacuations as Bali volcano eruption appears imminent
Natural disaster declared in preparation for Mount Agung volcano eruption

We just left yesterday at 1 pm and were keeping fingers and toes crossed the airport stayed open. Spent a week at Wakatobi and Bali, the volcano started getting really ominous as we were enroute to DPS from China.

If it erupts with ash clouds, the plan is to boat people to other island where airports are open. No idea how long that takes, if you can take belongings with you, etc. Or how long air travel might be disrupted. Grateful we did not have to find out.

It was very difficult whilst there to get reliable info due to bad internet at Wakatobi and general downplaying of the situation for tourism.

This is a terrible situation for the people who may lose homes, livestock, crops, and livelihoods.

 

[gekodivebali]

Information is sparse. Even qualified experts tell you: "wait & see!", so no one really knows what will happen. We see a lot of self-proclaimed experts spreading inaccurate noise. I may myself have contributed as I was given inexact information by individuals I trust. For instance, saying "an eruption is imminent" or "the volcano will erupt" is not correct, as things could just as well quiet down!
On the ground, we see that some commercial activity from the evacuated areas has resumed in spite of warnings by the authorities. This may not be the safest way to deal with uncertainty... I certainly would not stay in Tulamben right now with my kids or want my guests there.

 

[Scubamat]

Australian media(atleast where I am) is saying an eruption is likely (but not guaranteed) in the next few days.