Whale Shark probability

[Kharon]

I know nothing is certain, but ... I'm wondering if I made a mistake. One of my bucket list items is to be in the water with wild (not aquarium) whale sharks. I booked with Splash for next year at the full moon in April 2019 thinking I would have an excellent chance to be in the water with whale sharks. After seeing posts from the operation on this year's season, I got the feeling that the chances were pretty slim. Again, I know that there are no guarantees.

Does anyone have experience with whale shark dives with Splash? I ask because I went to a destination that is regularly touted as fantastic and was severely disappointed because I had different expectations than reality. If I know ahead of time that there's only a slim chance of actually diving with whale sharks I can modify my expectations and be a happy camper.

 

[Damselfish]

If you're going anyway, just modify your expectations now. I've never gotten the impression the chances are as high there as one might like for a trip where that was the main goal. And it's a long trip out with nothing to see if the sharks aren't there at the time.

We actually did this on a liveaboard trip, but got skunked because it was scheduled at the wrong time. (I didn't check, assuming they did their homework.) IIRC the "whale shark" dives were done with Splash and I'm not sure why they didn't inform the liveaboard it was the wrong time when the arrangements were made, but I don't know how far ahead that was. (They came on board for a briefing and basically said "why the heck are you here now?")

 

[Kharon]

If you're going anyway, just modify your expectations now. I've never gotten the impression the chances are as high there as one might like for a trip where that was the main goal. And it's a long trip out with nothing to see if the sharks aren't there at the time.

We actually did this on a liveaboard trip, but got skunked because it was scheduled at the wrong time. (I didn't check, assuming they did their homework.) IIRC the "whale shark" dives were done with Splash and I'm not sure why they didn't inform the liveaboard it was the wrong time when the arrangements were made, but I don't know how far ahead that was. (They came on board for a briefing and basically said "why the heck are you here now?")

I did my homework because it is my main goal. I'm going at what is supposed to be the peak of the season and at the right time re. the full moon. So wrong time doesn't apply here. My question is are the odds small even at best time of year and lunar cycle?

 

[dlofting]

Will wait for Ralph C to reply, but I'd say that if the success of your trip is based on seeing whale sharks than you may be disappointed.....on the other hand the massive schools of jacks are worth the trip, in my opinion.

 

[Ghosty]

I went once with Seahorse Dive to Gladden Spit, last May within prime time, 7 days after the full moon. They saw two medium sized Whale Sharks the day before. We saw ZERO, and no other animals of any kind. Total bust, but not the dive shop's fault obviously. It's just a big gamble.

IF I do Gladden again, I'll plan to go exactly on full moon, or within a couple days after. I think even a week after F.M. is too late, plus the sightings aren't as frequent as all the "Top-10 whale shark destinations" lists you find online through Google lead you to believe, imo. They set the expectations too high, after talking to other Belize divers!

Of course the dive shops won't tell you this, at the ridiculous $300 a head price.

 

[chillyinCanada]

I went with Splash a few years ago, at the right time of the month in May. I was fortunate to see many whale sharks but not on every dive. Many of the Dives were just murky and somewhat dark. But I had a whale shark initially right over my head and then I was able to see it pass beside me. Spectacular! We would also see them rise from the deep.

It should be noted that some of the divers lacking in experience, missed seeing any of the whale sharks. There were some tears.

I followed around the guy who goes annually and photographs whale sharks. He had the best eye for seeing them. I think he tried to shake me a couple of times with limited success. LOL

April might be a bit early though they can start showing up then. Is there a reason you picked April over May or June?

 

[Kharon]

April might be a bit early though they can start showing up then. Is there a reason you picked April over May or June?

Based it on what Ralph told me. His information was that March was a bit early, April/May was peak and June was windy.

Oh dear. I really blew a wad on this trip since it was a bucket list diving experience that now looks like a very good chance it will be a bust as far as my main goal. Guess I didn't do as much "homework" as I thought.

I'd lose too much money to cancel now so I guess I better just suck it up and consider it a general diving trip - not at all what I wanted. I'm going to Bonaire in December for that kind of trip for a ton less money.

I decided not to go to Mexico mainly because of the poor visibility. Snorkeling would have been perfectly OK maybe even better though the extremely limited time in the water is a turn off. Utilila is absolutely out as I will never, ever go anywhere near Roatan or that horrible Roatan airport experience again. Some of the other whale shark destinations are more distant (travel time) than I really want to endure.

I might just give up on going anywhere but Bonaire. Grand Cayman was a bust because I went with my ex-dive club (long story - no fault of GC), Roatan was a bust because I believed the hype and didn't research enough. Now this. You would think I would learn.

 

[Caye Caulker Diver B]

Maybe it's just me, but you seem to live your life on expectations and whether they're met or not, rather than just "living each day" as it comes and enjoying whatever experiences come from it. And from just your few postings, it's brought you a very angry, resentful and disappointing life experience!

I've come to learn that expectations are merely resentments waiting to happen.

Why not approach the trip as an opportunity to visit and dive in a new country/destination, with an excellent opportunity to possibly see some whale sharks? Sure beats your present approach of: "If I don't see any whale sharks I completely wasted my time & money on this stupid trip!"

 

[Damselfish]

I think I've only seen whale sharks 3 times. Oslob Philippines on scuba (possibly a circus, though not too bad back when we were there - but a pretty sure thing and I don't regret doing it.) 1 diving at Tubbataha Philippines, not at all why we went there just a bonus. Sea of Cortez, Bahia de Los Angeles, snorkeling, best whale shark experience I've had. A number of boats there, and they have rules on how many people can be with a shark., but they're not being fed. So you had to work some to do it - drop near a shark, swim, reboard, repeat till you've had enough.

 

[Kharon]

Maybe it's just me, ...

Yep. It's just you.

First, for example, if I spend a boatload of money expecting a corvette and end up with a Chevy Cruze, of course I'm going to be disappointed. Because I'm not getting what I expected, but mainly because I didn't read the fine print and made assumptions. My bad.

Second, if you read my whole OP you would have seen that I was asking so that I could alter my expectations and still have a good time if it was unlikely that I'd be in the water with whale sharks.

Sure beats your present approach of: "If I don't see any whale sharks I completely wasted my time & money on this stupid trip!"

Actually, I never said that at all. Your interpretation - your words, not mine. My point is that if I had done more research I might have chosen differently to accomplish my goal. Am I disappointed, maybe a bit - today. Once my expectations are re-aligned - maybe not so much. Judging from the posts of peope who dove with Splash and didn't see whale sharks I expect to have a great time - just maybe not achieving my goal. Then again, I very well might, with a little bit of luck.

This whole, I'm OK, you're OK, don't worry be happy, kumbaya, everything is good stuff gets my goat. Always has. It may be fine for someone living in the tropics with unlimited time and nominal expense to try and try again, to whom anything goes is OK. But I live in the real world, in the frigid northeast with limited time and finite funds - anything goes is not OK. So not accomplishing a goal and completely blowing off my mistake as nothing important IMO is ... well better not say it here.

And out of all my trips having only 2 disappointing isn't a bad average - I just take every trip seriously, because it is - logistically, financially, and temporally (time). This trip is no different.