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When do you think virus-related disruptions will end?

Discussion in 'General Asia' started by jjmochi, Mar 24, 2020.

  1. jjmochi

    jjmochi Contributor

    # of Dives: 100 - 199
    Location: Hong Kong
    126
    83
    As I am rebooking trips, curious when everyone else thinks will be safe to travel again

    I have 2 more trips in July and Oct which I'm hopeful but not convinced can go ahead as planned. Wait and see for now

    I think rebooking to 2021 is obviously the safe choice but will you try your luck doing anything earlier?

    There's also a lot of 50% off deals now

    I personally don't think restrictions will be lifted in April or May, June is a big maybe, July more likely, August probably, Sept+ should be ok. I just rebooked something to Christmas week

    What do you think?
     
  2. michael-fisch

    michael-fisch ScubaBoard Sponsor ScubaBoard Sponsor

    # of Dives: 2,500 - 4,999
    Location: Finally Lake City FL
    1,189
    916
    I don't think that it'll be safe to travel before 80% of the world's population has either had the Corona virus, or have been immunized.
    In other words: Not this year, and probably not next year.

    If the immunization is developed and patented in the USA - NEVER, it'll be several orders of magnitude too expensive for everyone other than the top 5%, and because of this, several hundred million lesser people will die.

    Michael
     
    divinh, DBPacific, agilis and 3 others like this.
  3. diveUAE

    diveUAE Contributor

    # of Dives: 500 - 999
    Location: Abu Dhabi
    224
    142
    We’re hoping our July trip to Bali, Komodo and Alor will go ahead as planned- but it’s only a hope.

    Looks like Japan has asked to postpone OL, so not at all sure we will be able to travel in July.

    I’m not booking anything till I know more about this situation.
     
  4. Angelo Farina

    Angelo Farina Marine Scientist

    # of Dives: 1,000 - 2,499
    Location: Parma, ITALY
    1,831
    2,850
    If everything goes well (and it is a BIG IF), the situation should come normal during summer. In 2021, of course!
    In the worst case, it will take 3-5 years.
     
    Snoweman, StefinSB and michael-fisch like this.
  5. GJC

    GJC Solo Diver

    # of Dives: 200 - 499
    Location: Southern California, USA
    675
    579
    The only correct answer to this is -Nobody really knows.

    It's too soon for anyone to have good information about this. Anyone that gives you a time frame is just guessing.
     
    randpchi, Kensei, Hoyden and 2 others like this.
  6. RockiesFan

    RockiesFan Banned

    4,927
    3,748
  7. Skulmoski

    Skulmoski Contributor

    # of Dives: 100 - 199
    Location: Gold Coast, QLD
    467
    246
    I see three scenarios:
    1) Best case - people do the right things, and the virus comes under control globally, resulting in a patchwork of travel restrictions and possibilities (lasting 6-36+ months).
    2) Likely - we will see a roller-coster wave of shutdowns, isolations, and reversals. Non-essential travel is highly discouraged (lasting 12-36+ months).
    3) Worst case - total disruption and breakdown until the vaccine is discovered, tested, and widely distributed throughout the planet (lasting18-36+ months).

    The best solution for me will be to dive locally. Today was day one of a 2-week dive trip in Puerto Galera that was cancelled. The upside, is that despite an increase in fishing at some of our dive sites, many dive sites are likely to improve due to the reduction in tourism. Be patient, dive locally, and then in a bit of time, global diving will slowly blossom.

    Stay safe. Listen to the experts and trusted leaders for public health advice. Best wishes.
     
  8. Bert van den Berg

    Bert van den Berg Solo Diver

    # of Dives: 2,500 - 4,999
    Location: New Zealand
    485
    406
    During the past three months approximately 10,000 people died because of COVID-19 world wide. During the same three months about 12 million people died for other reasons and about 35 million people were born. Based on figures from overseas, I am hoping that this thing will blow over in a 3 or 4 more months.
     
    JPDenny, woodcarver, Saboteur and 2 others like this.
  9. NothingClever

    NothingClever ScubaBoard Sponsor ScubaBoard Sponsor

    # of Dives: 200 - 499
    Location: Red Sea and Atlantic Ocean
    1,016
    1,228
    I think the only people who could give us a realistic projection are epidemiologists with a strong grasp on global medical history, the historical precedents of pandemics and a synopsis of the current response posture on each continent.

    I’d like to be able to say “this summer” but I recognize I’m just talking out my a$$.
     
  10. michael-fisch

    michael-fisch ScubaBoard Sponsor ScubaBoard Sponsor

    # of Dives: 2,500 - 4,999
    Location: Finally Lake City FL
    1,189
    916
    I hope you're right, but I'm not optimistic.
    Numbers out of europe, demonstrate that around 5% of those tested to have Corona Virus will die in countries with a social medicine system, how that works without social medicine or the ability to get/pay for treatment hasn't yet been looked into.
    If 60% of the population get the virus worldwide (according to some reasonable leaders in europe) that would mean that at least 200 million will die. Survival rates among indigenous peoples, slum dwellers, prisoners and the socially disadvantaged will be much lower.

    This virus will kill more people than have died in all wars since 1900 !

    Michael
     
    Bert van den Berg likes this.

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