When do you think virus-related disruptions will end?

[Umuntu]

Not a matter of "if" but "when"
Go back and look at those flattening the curve charts. The area under the line, that is the number of people needing a hospital visit. The area (the total number of people) is the same. If we did nothing this would be almost over with now. A chunk of those people would now be dead due to medical overload. As we flatten the curve, it just delays the inevitable. And the world sucks for longer. So RAISE the curve (but still in the medical capacity) and the end date will come sooner. In the end the same number are affected, same final result, just get it done sooner.

This argument is false. There are many diseases to which we have no natural immunity which have simply been "contained". Ebola, SARS 1, the Black Plague come immediately to mind, but I'm sure there are many others.

 

[tridacna]

So RAISE the curve (but still in the medical capacity) and the end date will come sooner. In the end the same number are affected, same final result, just get it done sooner.

Untrue. If an effective treatment is developed or a vaccine found, the body count is radically reduced. That's a major reason to flatten the curve.

 

[divinh]

You misinterpreted the sense of my comment, let me rephrase my comment above ...

The percentages you quote assume that 100% of the population have been exposed to Covid 19 and fail to take account that considerably less than 100% of the population has actually been exposed to the virus because of lockdown and social distancing.

Agreed.

In the US, for example, mostly essential workers and symptomatic people are tested. Of those, between 1.1% to 9.1% die, depending on the State. The US, overall, has a 5.8% Covid-19 fatality rate, of course with not everyone tested and not everyone exposed. (Global COVID-19 Tracker & Interactive Charts | Real Time Updates & Digestable Information for Everyone | 1Point3Acres)

World War II US military had a fatality rate of 2.5% (16,112,566 served, 405,399 deaths).

For the US, a person is 2x more likely to die of Covid-19 than a soldier during WWII... and that's with lockdown and social distancing.

 

[broncobowsher]

Don't forget the body count of those who die of the environment they are now in due to lock downs. Domestic violence is up. People are out of work, loosing a place to live, depressed and suicidal. There is a large number of people that will be killed by Covid without actually contacting the disease. That number is silently growing. And a magic cure is suddenly going to come out? Go ahead and hold your breath waiting for that one. Just about any drug that has been released in the past 10 years now has lawyers on TV advertising to get you money for some side effect it may have caused. If there is a magic eluxer the side effects later will likely be worse than what it should have prevented. Minimal testing, rushed through by the FDA. Add in this is an election year so everything will be pushed through super quick to make people feel goo by November. Let's see, Atlanta opened a month ago, pretty much all the data charts are flat despite massive warnings that it was too soon and everyone was going to die at once.

 

[flyboy08]

This argument is false. There are many diseases to which we have no natural immunity which have simply been "contained". Ebola, SARS 1, the Black Plague come immediately to mind, but I'm sure there are many others.

AIDS!

 

[flyboy08]

Don't forget the body count of those who die of the environment they are now in due to lock downs. Domestic violence is up. People are out of work, loosing a place to live, depressed and suicidal. There is a large number of people that will be killed by Covid without actually contacting the disease. That number is silently growing. And a magic cure is suddenly going to come out? Go ahead and hold your breath waiting for that one. Just about any drug that has been released in the past 10 years now has lawyers on TV advertising to get you money for some side effect it may have caused. If there is a magic eluxer the side effects later will likely be worse than what it should have prevented. Minimal testing, rushed through by the FDA. Add in this is an election year so everything will be pushed through super quick to make people feel goo by November. Let's see, Atlanta opened a month ago, pretty much all the data charts are flat despite massive warnings that it was too soon and everyone was going to die at once.

You lost me at making it political.

 

[Bob DBF]

So RAISE the curve (but still in the medical capacity) and the end date will come sooner. In the end the same number are affected, same final result, just get it done sooner.

So hold a measles party for the country and hope it’s small enough, and in the right places so that the hospitals can handle the load?

The big issue is wether there is actually a “herd immunity” to be had. With three sailors from the TR reinfecting with COVID right after being cleared for duty from the hospital after having COVID, I’m not sure this is going to just blow over with time.

For the US, a person is 2x more likely to die of Covid-19 than a soldier during WWII... and that's with lockdown and social distancing.

Considering the lack of testing in the US, we have no idea what the chances of death from COVID actually is. Until recently, here in CA, COVID tests were given to patients being admitted to the hospital with symptoms.

Stanford did some testing and found quite a number of people had COVID antibodies from a sickness, thought to be a nasty flu, this past winter, and are now doing a study to determine how many may have had COVID then. It could bring the mortality rate down considerably if a lot of people have already had it thinking it was the flu, or even thought it it was COVID and were not tested at the time.

 

[Ukmc]

Agreed.

In the US, for example, mostly essential workers and symptomatic people are tested. Of those, between 1.1% to 9.1% die, depending on the State. The US, overall, has a 5.8% Covid-19 fatality rate, of course with not everyone tested and not everyone exposed. (Global COVID-19 Tracker & Interactive Charts | Real Time Updates & Digestable Information for Everyone | 1Point3Acres)

World War II US military had a fatality rate of 2.5% (16,112,566 served, 405,399 deaths).

For the US, a person is 2x more likely to die of Covid-19 than a soldier during WWII... and that's with lockdown and social distancing.

There is a flaw in your math. The COVID mortality statistics you are presenting based on people tested and not exposed. The more you test the lesser mortality you will find.

How about this statistics : USS Roosevelt had 600 confirmed cases. 60% did not even manifest a symptom. Not a single mortality...

 

[Bob DBF]

How about this statistics : USS Roosevelt had 600 confirmed cases. 60% did not even manifest a symptom. Not a single mortality...

At least one Chief early on, as I remember.

Edit
USNI news
“The first sailor to die of COVID- 19 was a chief petty officer assigned to USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71), the Navy ”

 

[divinh]

Don't forget the body count of those who die of the environment they are now in due to lock downs. Domestic violence is up. People are out of work, loosing a place to live, depressed and suicidal. There is a large number of people that will be killed by Covid without actually contacting the disease. That number is silently growing. And a magic cure is suddenly going to come out? Go ahead and hold your breath waiting for that one. Just about any drug that has been released in the past 10 years now has lawyers on TV advertising to get you money for some side effect it may have caused. If there is a magic eluxer the side effects later will likely be worse than what it should have prevented. Minimal testing, rushed through by the FDA. Add in this is an election year so everything will be pushed through super quick to make people feel goo by November. Let's see, Atlanta opened a month ago, pretty much all the data charts are flat despite massive warnings that it was too soon and everyone was going to die at once.

Unfortunately the Georgia data is suspect...

‘It’s just cuckoo’: state’s latest data mishap causes critics to cry foul