When will Coz re-open?

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WetInPortland

Contributor
Messages
520
Reaction score
324
Location
Cozumel, Q.R., Mexico
# of dives
100 - 199
There was a thread awhile back, "Will Coz close its borders?" That title was a bit of a misnomer; the federal government controls the international borders, as well as the airports. The states (apparently) have the right to coordinate between themselves to close inter-state land borders; several states in western Mexico have done this. The Cozumel municipal president has, in coordination with the state, implemented various details of the stay-at-home order, but I see this as just granular implementation, not fully independent control.

With that said, then, what will it take for Cozumel to re-open and when will that happen? I submit the following must occur (more or less in order):

  1. The stay-at-home (Quedarte en Casa) orders must be lifted, so that people can move about freely. This is largely at the state/local level, albeit with the strong encouragement of the federal health ministry. There has been some suggestion that this may vary by region depending on the status of the outbreak
  2. Beaches must be opened. This is technically a Cozumel regulation, but I suspect they are taking their cues from the Quintana Roo state government
  3. The federal government must lift the non-essential travel ban, and allow visitors to enter the country on tourist visas
  4. The navy must direct the port captains to re-open the ports for recreational purposes
Once the above are complete, I would say that Cozumel would be open for business. When the cruise ships return is a separate discussion that's largely at the discretion of the cruise lines (and to a certain extent the US government allowing them to operate at US ports). Once 1-4 have occurred, I'm pretty certain that Cozumel will welcome any cruise ship that wants to dock.

For #1, the federal government and QRoo is saying that the quarantine will be in effect until 31-May, although that may change. Based on that, for #2-4, President AMLO has made comments of a gradual reopening of the economy through the month of June. All this is predicated on the outbreak unfolding as predicted. I've not seen any indications or contingency plans for a secondary outbreak.

Question for the forum denizens: When will Cozumel re-open, and why? GO!
 
How about once an antidote is readily available?
 
Somebody needs another crossword puzzle.
 
bottom line is that governments have no choice but to open the economy. the question is when, and how.
i read comments in online discussions all the time from people who seem to think the world can simply stay in neutral for another year or two until a vaccine is approved. this is absurd.
i am one of the lucky ones that is still working. canadians are among the lucky ones as a whole as we have a strong social system that is helping its people as best it can.
but i cannot imagine how some of the worlds poorest countries will survive if these economic lockdowns are continued much longer. there are people with literally zero income right now. how will they feed themselves or their families ? pay rent ? pay utilities ?
in the wealthier countries we already see huge losses to peoples retirement funds. older folks living off interest from savings have taken a huge hit. just for example.....the canadian restaurant assoc is predicting a 25% to 50% loss of all restaurants in canada. for every month beyond May that we are shutdown, they predict another 10% will go under.
so if the larger economies go down, just imagine the devastation in poorer countries. i don't even wanna think about it.
i would not be surprised if we don't start seeing riots in the hardest hit locations if they don't start loosening restrictions soon.
good luck everyone. stay safe !!
 
Will there be riots when thousands more people are killed in the second wave?

There are no good options. You have to choose the least bad option.

History has shown that re-opening too soon results in more deaths. And that taking (and sticking with) the painful steps to slow down the spread, however unpopular, ultimately result in a better economic return afterwards. It's not easy (or popular) to stick to those restrictions, anywhere. Never has been, never will be.

We will have to watch carefully as various locations around the world start experimenting with loosening restrictions to various degrees (unfortunately, there are already some indications that the recent, limited loosening of some restrictions elsewhere has caused a spike within a few days). Fortunately for Mexico, there are other places around the world who are "ahead" (that is, their infections blew up earlier, and authorities locked down earlier, their curve was eventually flattened...). Learn from others' experiences, or suffer again and again.
 
Will there be riots when thousands more people are killed in the second wave?

There are no good options. You have to choose the least bad option.

History has shown that re-opening too soon results in more deaths. And that taking (and sticking with) the painful steps to slow down the spread, however unpopular, ultimately result in a better economic return afterwards. It's not easy (or popular) to stick to those restrictions, anywhere. Never has been, never will be.

We will have to watch carefully as various locations around the world start experimenting with loosening restrictions to various degrees (unfortunately, there are already some indications that the recent, limited loosening of some restrictions elsewhere has caused a spike within a few days). Fortunately for Mexico, there are other places around the world who are "ahead" (that is, their infections blew up earlier, and authorities locked down earlier, their curve was eventually flattened...). Learn from others' experiences, or suffer again and again.
How long do you stay locked down? Until the virus doesn't exist? Until everybody is vaccinated? How long?
 
they should just make the old people stay on lock down since their vulnerability is ruining it for everyone lmao
 
they should just make the old people stay on lock down since their vulnerability is ruining it for everyone lmao
Sadly, this virus is killing also a lot of young people here. Only small children seem to be safe (till now). Old people were dying faster, so initially it appeared that only old people were dying, Youngsters fight longer, but in the end also a number of them are dying, after having been sick for weeks.
We are opening factories in Italy starting on Monday, in a couple of weeks all the other countries will learn if this was a good idea or not. I warmly hope that the second wave will be much smaller than the first one, so that we can manage it without the need of closing everything again.
On my side, I will continue staying at home as long as possible, hoping to help mitigating the second wave.
What is clear is that, even when the second wave will extinguish, we will not be able to return immediately to "normal life": the following step (phase 3) will be opening bars and restaurants and hotels, possibly at half June, as the touristic season is providing subsistence to millions of people. This inevitably will cause the third wave, which will be the really dangerous one.
Then in September, if we survived to the third wave, it will be the time for reopening schools and universities. And this will cause the 4th wave.
If anything goes wrong in these key passages we will need to come back to the start, locking everything for one month, before reopening partially again. I warmly hope this does not happen, and we can slowly come back to something vaguely resembling "normality". For true "normality" it will take years!
 
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