Storm watch until 9 October

[Doc]

I’d still go, but something to watch with weekend air connections…

Accuweather video: Click on this, lot’s of forecasting smarts…

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/potential-hurricane-risk-looms-for-western-caribbean/1258957?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=accuweather&utm_source=twitter

 

[Doc]

10/06 Thursday… it’s a rain event for the Bay Islands

a ‘Norther’ is now upon the Bay islands. It is raining and blowing pretty good…from the North (hence the name)

There will e a calm before the landfall of Invest 91L, maybe on Friday, and then the Bay Islands anticipates more and heavier rains. The models show, what winds there might be, will hit 60 miles to the South on the mainland…but not before hitting Corn Islands off the Eastern coast.

Some very limited access by webcam, but here’s what i scrounged. Dead flat calm on the South side, more than a bit rough on the West/North.

Diving continues
(West end view)

Looking West

Looking west from CCV:

The broad picture, note Invest 91L swirling over ABC blowing and raining…

How the weather service shows real-time righty now over Bay Islands….

Good update link: Potential Tropical Cyclone 13L LIVE Tracker and Forecast | Zoom Earth

note below how predicted track has nudged Southward….

This is a hIstorical chart of rainfall. I have posted similar previously. That we are in the heaviest rainfall period has been disputed by many tourism cheerleaders here and on TA. It is, what it is, quite obviously…

Corrupted file screen shot from CoCoView (south), dead calm

This is CCV’s ‘weather forecasting doggo’…

 

[Doc]

Forecast tracks look good for Bay Islands. Just some rain.

This displays the potential storm track. As days progress, the prediction becomes less certain, that’s why then ‘cone’ gets larger. It does NOT denote the expected width or footprint of any storm, just showing the widest area of error in track prediction…

Note the wind directions, pushing system to South….

My best guess….

 

[Doc]

This, from the Sheldon Cooper types:

The track forecast is straightforward. The disturbance is being
driven quickly westward with a motion of 270/15 kt by a strong low-
to mid-level ridge stretching across the western Atlantic and Gulf
of Mexico. This feature should maintain the system on a westward
heading for the next 3 days across the southwestern Caribbean Sea,
with some slowing of the forward motion as it moves away from the
main high center over the western Atlantic. A slight turn toward
the west-northwest across Central America is forecast by day 4 once
the system, or its remnants, reaches the western periphery of the
ridge. The track models remain tightly clustered, and the new NHC
forecast is near the previous prediction and the TVCN/HCCA
consensus aids.

 

[Doc]

Friday morning 08:30 local
Diving ops moving and seas are flat

 

[BoundForElsewhere]

oh hell. that's going to pass directly over Isla Providencia. they just can't catch a break, it seems.

 

[Doc]

Slowing down, building some limited strength, track being better defined- sagging Southward. Corn island, San Andres, Providencia… all SCUBA destinations

off the East of the Cape of Honduras, it’s still going to get it.

 

[Doc]

We’re done here, from the Bay Islands perspective, and for the on and off rains that linger. No info from San Andres and Corn.

Note how original track predictions were pretty close but a reminder to not place all bets too early.

 

[Kimela]

Our flight out of Roatan last night was delayed a few hours as the aircraft couldn’t land in the fog/rain/wind - diverted to Belize to refill fuel and came back for us later. We overnighted in Dallas and are on the way home now. Was hoping to dodge Julia. Glad to have gotten out ok.

 

[UtilaSarge]

Here in Utila, all of this activity between Ian and now Julia has just made it look like an early rainy season, but that is all we got from them - rain. Glad for it! Now, on to rainy season!