The $99 scuba course question

[boulderjohn]

The fact that retention rates has dropped when cheap curses started appearing ....

Do you have any evidence that this is true?

I can show you research that indicates the few agencies that were around in the mid to late 1960s were very concerned about the poor retention rate in diving, and they experimented with policies to try to improve it. What evidence do you have that it got any worse after that than it was then?

 

[RJP]

Do you have any evidence that this is true?

I can show you research that indicates the few agencies that were around in the mid to late 1960s were very concerned about the poor retention rate in diving, and they experimented with policies to try to improve it. What evidence do you have that it got any worse after that than it was then?

I think it's cloudy. The fact of the matter is that when diving was growing there were more and more people available... to STOP diving. There's no doubt that the absolute number of people who stopped diving got larger and larger as the market grew. However I've never seen anything that specifically indicated that the retention RATE changed at all. Intuition would say that a few extra points due to economy and such might be reasonable. But I'm thinking that the five-year decay rate maybe changed on the order of something like 65% to 68% or so.

Plus, drop-out rates aren't really recognized (certaily not worried about) when the market is growing. You don't notice ten people leaving when twelve more come in the door at the same time. But when ten people leave and only SIX others come in... the same "10 people leaving" that was ignored yesterday is now a crisis.

 

[GDI]

While I agree in the primacy of neutral buoyancy I'm not certain that students need to be "forced" to dive neutral and in proper trim. At least not in the typical meaning of the word "forced."

One of the most formative experiences in my diving "career" was my own Open Water class, wherein I was simply never shown anything OTHER than neutral buoyancy and horizontal trim when we were in water too deep to stand. I was never told it was "hard" or "uncommon" or "difficult" much less that I was being "forced" to dive that way.

When we did our very first descent in the pool I was told "We're going to swim out to the deep end, let the air out of our BCD and descend half way to the bottom..." and that's where we did skills.

But since I had no idea that was impossible... I just went ahead and did it.

I think you'll find that most students will do the same. Assuming anything else sells their ability - or yours - short.

I like Harry Averill's take on it: "Bouyancy control is not a skill... it's a habit."

Pass no Faults BUT Demonstrate the Expectation

 

[ams511]

Taking a rough estimate of average class size, I would say it would take me nearly 30 hours of instruction to earn what a plumber makes putting in a toilet in 1.5 hours.

Then why aren't you a plumber rather than a scuba instructor? I don't mean to be snarky but if money is your primary motivation then plumbing is more lucrative.

---------- Post added April 2nd, 2015 at 03:45 PM ----------

Wanna know what the most expensive thing is when you buy a bottle of Tylenol?

Yup. The bottle.

My aunt used to work for Capital Records and the album covers cost more than the actual record. I suspect the packaging in the beverage industry is also more expensive than the product. Although I have no proof about this.

---------- Post added April 2nd, 2015 at 03:52 PM ----------

Ask your local flight instructor what they make and you will see they have a lot in common with scuba instructors.

Exactly, and it costs more than a couple of thousand dollars to be a flight instructor.

---------- Post added April 2nd, 2015 at 04:10 PM ----------

Demand for scuba training is relatively price inelastic.

You know this how?

Also your analysis is flawed. If I am a dive shop owner I am concerned with my local market NOT with the scuba market as a whole. I want to set my prices to maximize my profits, I could care less about the market as a whole because I have no control over that.

---------- Post added April 2nd, 2015 at 04:17 PM ----------

Plus, drop-out rates aren't really recognized (certaily not worried about) when the market is growing. You don't notice ten people leaving when twelve more come in the door at the same time. But when ten people leave and only SIX others come in... the same "10 people leaving" that was ignored yesterday is now a crisis.

How does the industry track drop out rates?

 

[KevinNM]

The most expensive thing about a coke at McDonald's is the ice. Then the cup.

 

[TSandM]

You know, these discussions sort of fascinate me. I have two sports, diving and riding. In diving, people believe that you can take a single class, as cheaply as possible, and learn to do it as well as you need to. In riding, people take regular instructions for years and years and years -- in my case, 25 years -- and continue to pay, one to several times a week, a fee per hour which, in our area, exceeds what a diving instructor is paid per student for about 50 hours of work. And when a top-level instructor comes to town, the amount people will pay for a 30 minute lesson approaches the absurd (and is WAY more than I make as an emergency room physician).

The only thing I can think of as to why there is such a huge disparity is that scuba is not competitive, and is sold as a discontinuous function. You go from uncertified to diver, and there is no implication that skills augment in increments, or even that skill is particularly necessary or desirable.

Everybody knows skiing starts on the bunny hill, but you're probably going to have to do a lot of it or take some more lessons to get to the blue or black slopes. Nobody seems to think that diving is similar.

 

[redacted]

You know, these discussions sort of fascinate me. I have two sports, diving and riding. In diving, people believe that you can take a single class, as cheaply as possible, and learn to do it as well as you need to. In riding, people take regular instructions for years and years and years -- in my case, 25 years -- and continue to pay, one to several times a week, a fee per hour which, in our area, exceeds what a diving instructor is paid per student for about 50 hours of work. And when a top-level instructor comes to town, the amount people will pay for a 30 minute lesson approaches the absurd (and is WAY more than I make as an emergency room physician).

The only thing I can think of as to why there is such a huge disparity is that scuba is not competitive, and is sold as a discontinuous function. You go from uncertified to diver, and there is no implication that skills augment in increments, or even that skill is particularly necessary or desirable.

Everybody knows skiing starts on the bunny hill, but you're probably going to have to do a lot of it or take some more lessons to get to the blue or black slopes. Nobody seems to think that diving is similar.

For some people, the only reason they need a class at all is to get a C-card. (Does riding or skiing have such a requirement?) When that is the objective, why pay a penny more than necessary? Basic scuba does have some knowledge requirements that are well documented and the skills are really rather easy for many people. Yet they are required to pay the piper.

 

[RJP]

The most expensive thing about a coke at McDonald's is the ice. Then the cup.

Labor, cup, syrup, ice,

---------- Post added April 2nd, 2015 at 10:37 PM ----------

You know this how?

Res ipsa loquitur. If scuba diving/training were price-elastic all those $99 OW course shops would have lines out the door and their owners would be driving Porsches. The vast majority of the population will never take up diving whether the course costs $399, $199, $99 or even $1.99. Which is to say, the overall variance in overall demand does not vary uniformly with change in price. That's the very definition of price inelastic.

Also your analysis is flawed.

I'll let Milton Friedman know. I'm sure he'll return his Nobel prize.

If I am a dive shop owner I am concerned with my local market NOT with the scuba market as a whole. I want to set my prices to maximize my profits, I could care less about the market as a whole because I have no control over that.?

Saying "local market" and "market as a whole" is a difference without a distinction.

Any local market or business is subject to the same, well-characterized market forces as the overall market. The slopes of any of the curves may change... but the shape of the curves and the overall price/demand/supply/consumption dynamic are the same in any marketplace. (At least any market that isn't subject to governmental price-controls or production subsidies.)

How does the industry track drop out rates?

Obviously since dives aren't reported and C-cards don't expire it's not easy from any machine-readable transactional data. Instead, best that can be done is a large quant survey that can be fairly reliably projected. Survey, say 24,000 people (as in the last one that was done) who were certified at one point and find out what they've done since getting certified.

 

[Redshift]

Do you have any evidence that this is true?

That's how the thread started!

A founder of the one of the training agencies recently told me that he had research that showed a correlation between the advent of cheap weekend scuba courses and diver retention decline.

It wasn't me saying it, but it doesn't surprise me if this happens.

But it's hard to know how many divers are out there and what they are doing. Maybe in some countries there is better information, for instance where clubs still work.

 

[boulderjohn]

That's how the thread started!


It wasn't me saying it, but it doesn't surprise me if this happens.

But it's hard to know how many divers are out there and what they are doing. Maybe in some countries there is better information, for instance where clubs still work.

I should have asked the question at that time, then. I don't know of any evidence that any of this is true.