Li-Ion Battery Prices

[Rainer]

Tobin, any thoughts on how Li-Ion prices might play out in the next few years? I know you're not a fortune teller, but you do have more experience with batteries than just about anyone on this board. How did the price of NiMH cells change over the years with increased demand? Should we expect similar trends with Li-Ion?

Ultimately curious if the price on the Li-Ion Sierra batteries might fall in the coming years. They look so nice!

 

[cool_hardware52]

Tobin, any thoughts on how Li-Ion prices might play out in the next few years? I know you're not a fortune teller, but you do have more experience with batteries than just about anyone on this board. How did the price of NiMH cells change over the years with increased demand? Should we expect similar trends with Li-Ion?

Ultimately curious if the price on the Li-Ion Sierra batteries might fall in the coming years. They look so nice!

I don't see any big drops on the horizon, wish I did.

A great deal of the worlds battery manufacturing capacity has converted from NiMh and Ni-Cad to Li-Ion.

Currently the cost per watthour for Li-Ion is lower than NiMh. It's getting harder to buy high capacity Nimh and Ni-Cad cells, based mostly on production numbers.

That wasn't the case a few years ago when there was a substantial premium paid for Li-Ion even on a $$/ watthour basis.

Another trend one sees with batteries is the cost for the newest highest capacity cells will stay high. These end up in performance products, high end laptops, etc.

A step or two back from the "bleeding edge" i.e. yesterdays "zippy" cells can become a bit more affordable.

Currently we use 2.6 amphour cells, when 2.9 or 3.0 or whatever become the norm become common the cost for 2.6's will drop.

We are usually pretty focused on maximizing capacity, but if and when 18650's move to the next level a "budget" pack might make sense.

That's about all the range and resolution my crystal ball has today......

Tobin

 

[Rainer]

Thanks, Tobin!